ai & the fermi paradox - jon bowman
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a research documentTRANSCRIPT
TableofContents
1. Introduction2. WhatExactlyIsTheFermiParadox?3. PossibleFermiParadoxSolutions4. TheKardashevScale5. TheGreatFilter6. AIExplained7. TheEffectsofAIOnHumanity8. MindUploading&TheTechnologicalSingularity9. HowAIAndTheFermiParadoxCouldBeLinked10. Conclusion11. References&FurtherReading
1)Introduction
Wearelivinginanextraordinaryperiodoftime.Mankindisrapidlyapproachingtheeraofthemostexitingtechnologicalrevolutioninallofhistory.WelcometotheexcitingworldofArtificialIntelligence(AI),thealarmingFermiparadox,andthequesttoavoidextinctionandachievehumanimmortality.Preparetoexploretheconnectionbetweenthesefascinatingconcepts,alongwiththelatestexplanationsandadetailedlookatwhatthefuturemayholdforourspecies.Whilereadingthisdeeplythought-provokingbook,expectnothinglessthanshockingconclusions,bizarreideas,andastrongsenseofexhilaration(alongwithsomeconcern!)forthefastapproachingrevolution.Thequestionis…Areweprepared,orinwayoverourheads?
2)WhatExactlyIsTheFermiParadox?
AsthedeveloperoftheFermiparadox,EnricoFermioncefamouslyasked,“Whereiseverybody?”referringtoourapparentlonelyexistenceinthecosmos.Itspurposewastobringattentiontothestartlinglackofproofforextraterrestrialsinourincomprehensiblyhugegalaxy.Coulditbethatwearetheonlyonesinourgalaxy?
Tobeginanalyzingthisquestion,wemustfirstconsiderthesizeoftheuniversewherelifecouldberesiding.Anestimated100-200billionstarsexistinourMilkyWayGalaxyalone,yetdespitedecadesofcontinuousscanning,zerodefinitesignsofanalienracehavebeendetected.Severalinterestingbroadcastshavebeenpickedupbycontemporaryeffort,butnothingconclusivehasyetbeendiscoveredthatcouldnotbeexplainedbynaturalorigin.
Howcanwetellifasignalisnaturalorartificial?Itcanbedifficulttodistinguish,andafewsignalshaveinitiallyappearedtobeartificial,butwhenthesameareawasrescannedinhopesofreceivingthesamesignalagain,nothingwasfound.Ingeneral,asignalsuggestingextraterrestrialoriginshouldexhibitsometypeofcoherenceorrepetitionthatcannotbeexplainedbyanaturalsource.Thesignal’sstrength(amplitude),frequency,andpatternallcomeintoplaywhenscanningtheskyfordistantlife.Forexample,Earthwouldbeeasilyandimmediatelydeterminedtoharborlifebecauseoftheconstantstreamoflowfrequencyradiosignalsbeingemittedbycommunicationequipmentsuchastelevisionandradiobroadcastingtowers.Forthisreason,itisthoughtthatothercivilizationswithasimilarleveloftechnologyshouldnotbedifficulttodetect.
Fermi’sparadoxiscertainlynotexplainedbylackoftrying.Thesearchforextraterrestrialintelligence(SETI)isthecollectiveeffortof2millionpeoplecollectinganddecipheringelectromagneticsignalsinanefforttodiscoverartificialsourcesfromspace.SETI’seffortsarefocusedontheMilkyWaybecauseradiosignalscanonlytravelafinitedistancebeforebecomingtoodistortedtodecipherefficiently.Anenormousamountofenergyisneededtosendandreceivesignalsacrossthevastdistancebetweengalaxies,soeffortsareconcentratedwithinourowngalaxy.Regardless,thenumberofstarsandplanetsintheMilkyWayGalaxyaloneprovidesasuitableareatosearch,whichiswellbeyondastatisticalfluke.
Attheveryleast,hundredsofcivilizationsshouldbeemittingsignalswithinourgalaxy,andtheimplicationoffindingzeroisscary.Butfirst,howcanwearriveatanapproximationofhowmanycivilizationsthereshouldbeifwehavenotdetectedanyyet?WecanuseastatisticaltoolcalledtheDrakeequationtogainaroughapproximationofhowmanyintelligentcivilizationsweshouldbeabletodetectinsideourgalaxyrightnow.
TheDrakeequation:N=RxFpxNexFlxFixFcxL
Whichmeans…
Thenumberofplanetsinourgalaxycurrentlysupportingintelligentlifethatwecoulddetect=currentrateofstarformationperyearinourgalaxyXfractionofthosestarswithplanetsXnumberofplanetsthatcansupportlifeperstarwithplanetsXfractionofthoseplanetsthatactuallydeveloplifeXfractionofthoseplanetsthatdevelopintelligentlifeXfractionofthosethatsurviveself-destructionXlengthoftimecivilizationreleasesdetectablesignalsintospace.
Gotallthat?Let’sgothrougheachvariableandcalculateaconservativeanswergiventhemostrecentconstraints.
R=currentrateofstarformationperyearinourgalaxy.NASAandtheESAestimatethatanaverageofabout7starsareborninourgalaxyeveryyear.(7stars/year)
Fp=fractionofstarswithplanets.Thishasbeenestimatedusingmicrolensingsurveystobealmost1,meaningthatmoststarscontainatleastoneplanet.(1)
Ne=numberofplanetsthatcouldsupportlifeperstarwithplanets.Todeterminethisnumber,wewillcalculatetheamountofplanetslocatedinthehabitablezone.DatafromtheKeplerspacecraftpredictsthatupto40billionEarth-sizedplanetsareorbitinginthehabitablezoneoftheirhoststarintheMilkyWay.Since100billionstarsexistinourgalaxy,roughly40%ofstarscontainaplanetinitshabitablezone.Tocomplicatethingsfurther,moonsmayalsosupportthenecessitiesforlifetoform.(0.4)
Fl=fractionofthoseplanetsthatactuallydeveloplife.ThisisdifficulttoestimatesinceEarthistheonlyplanetknowntoharborlife.Inotherwords,therearezerodegreesoffreedom.ButthefactthatlifebeganearlyoninEarth’shistorysuggeststhatitshouldemergequiteeasilyonplanetswithfavorableconditions.However,itappearsthatlifeonlycameintoexistenceonceduringEarth’shistory(unlessithassincegoneextinct),sincealllifesharesacommonancestor.Itisplausiblethataplanetwithliquidwater,tectonicplates,andradioactiveelementsareatleastgoodindicatorsthatlifecouldbeginonthatplanet.Forourcalculation,wewillestimatethat1in10planetslocatedinthehabitablezoneeventuallydeveloplife.(0.1)
Fi=fractionoflife-bearingplanetsthatdevelophighintelligence.Thisisanotherhighlyspeculativefigureduetothefactthathumansaretheonlyknownintelligentform
oflifethatweareawareof.Theprobabilitythatlife-bearingplanetswillhavethetimetoprogresstothatpointbeforegoingextinctislargelyupfordebate.Thosewhopreferalargervalueforthisvariableassertthatlifeisresilient(agoodexamplebeingextremophilessuchasthosediscoveredlivinginlakeVostokdeepundertheAntarcticice),havingsurvivedseveralmassextinctionevents.Thosewhopreferasmallervaluearguethatittookalongtimeforustodeveloplargementalcapacity,andthathumansaretheonlyspeciestoachievethisoutofthebillionsthathavelivedonEarththroughouthistory.Althoughapproximationsvarywildly,forourequationwewillestimatethatonlyhalfofalllife-bearingplanetssurvivelongenoughforadvancedintelligentlifetoform.(0.5)
Fc=fractionofthoseplanetsthatdevelopinterstellarcommunication.Again,thisisanotherspeculativevariable,butconsideringtherelativelyshortamountoftimeittookforintelligentlifeonEarthtodeveloptheabilitytobroadcastradiowaves,itshouldnottakelongforintelligentlifeelsewheretobeginbroadcastingsomesortofdetectablewavesacrossthegalaxy.Itmustalsobementionedthatradiowavebroadcastsarenottheonlytypedetectable,althoughradiowavesarethemostenergyefficient,andthereforethemostlikelytobereceivedbyintelligentlife.Wearecontinuouslyscanningtheskyforalmostallfrequenciesoftheelectromagneticspectrum,awareofthefactthatothertypesarepossible.Afterconsideration,thisvariablewillbegivenavalueof0.5,whichmeansthathalfofallintelligentcivilizationsdevelopamethodofcommunicationthatcanbedetectedacrossthegalaxybeforegoingextinct.(0.5)
L=lengthoftime(years)civilizationreleasesdetectablesignalsintospace.Wehaveonlyhadthetechnologytoemitradiowavesforalittleover100years,anditistoughtopinpointanaverage,sinceourcivilizationisofcoursetheonlyoneknowntocommunicatewirelesslyoverlongdistances.Thebiggestfearisthatacivilizationwiththetechnologytobroadcastradiowavesmightalsohave(orwillhaveshortly)thetechnologytocauseglobalextinction,likeourfearofextinctionfromatomicbombsshortlyafterwebegantocommunicatewirelessly.Ontheotherhand,itisarguedthatacivilizationwiththatleveloftechnologyshouldbeabletoflourish,andmaybeevenreducethechanceofglobalextinction.Estimatesrangefromafewyearsallthewayuptohundredsofmillionsofyears,butconservativelywewillassumeanaveragebroadcastinglifetimeoffivethousandyears.(5,000years)
NowthatwehavealowapproximationforallthevariablesintheDrakeequation,wecancalculateafinalanswer.Needlesstosay,estimatesvarywildlybecauseproperdataislacking.Forexample,findingextinctlifeonMars(notrelatedtolifeonEarth)oranyotherplanetwouldaltertheresultssignificantly,asitwouldimplythatlifearisesfairlyeasily,buthasdifficultysurvivinglongenoughtobecomeintelligent.Similarly,ifadvancedtechnologyorremnantsofacivilizationarefoundonanotherplanet,itwouldimplythatlifedoesnotlastlongafterbecomingintelligentforonereasonoranother.Wewillexplorenumerous“filterevents”thatcouldpreventlifefromprogressingpasta
certainpointinalaterchapter.Fornow,hereistheresultingconservativeestimateforhowmanyextraterrestrialsourcesshouldbedetectableinsideourgalaxyatthisverymoment.
RxFpxNexFlxFixFcxL=N7x1x0.4x0.1x0.5x0.5x5000=350
Remember,thisisagenerouslylowestimate.Soattheveryleast,ifthereshouldbehundredsofalienracesinjusttheMilkyWayGalaxy,whydoweappeartobesoalone?ThisistheheartoftheFermiparadox.
Tofurthercomplicatethings,evenasingleadvancedcivilizationshouldbeabletodominatetheentiregalaxyinacosmicallyshortperiodoftime,duetotheexponentialrateoftechnologicalimprovement.Forexample,theamountofchangethatwesawfromsay,year1400to1500wasnothingcomparedtohowmuchweimprovedfrom1900to2000.Thisisbecauseoftheexponentiallyincreasingrate,whichresultsfromincreasingsustainablepopulation,alongwiththefactthatourcollectiveknowledgeisbuiltuponpastknowledge.Wearelivingatauniquetimeinhistorywhereamassivetechnologicalshiftoccurswithinasinglehumanlifetime,ratherthanoverthousandsofyears.Ifthistrendcontinues,theseshiftswilleventuallyoccuryearly,orevendaily!
Theexponentialrateofimprovingtechnologymakesitnearlyimpossibletoimaginetheleveloftechnologythatacivilization1,000yearsaheadofuswouldhave,whichisarelativelysmallamountoftimeconsideringtheageoftheuniverse,andtheamountoftimeothercivilizationshavepotentiallyhadtodevelop.Theirtechnologicalabilitieswouldbeunimaginabletomodern21stcenturyhumans.Civilizationswiththisleveloftechnologymighthavetheabilitytoeasilyspreadfromplanettoplanet,orevenstartostar.Also,byusingprobes(especiallyself-replicatingVonNeumannprobes)itisnotfar-fetchedtoimagineasuper-advancedcivilizationconqueringentiregalaxiesinacosmicallyshortamountoftime.(1)
Infact,ahumancouldeventheoreticallytravelinterstellardistancesinashortamountoftimebytakingadvantageofEinstein’stheoryofspecialrelativity.Bytravelingatnearlightspeed,timeslowsforapersoninsideofarocket.Forexample,at86%thespeedoflight,oneyearonEarthwouldonlytakehalfayearontherocket.At99.9%thespeedoflight,oneyearonEarthwouldequaljustovertwoweeksontherocket.Thereforeatriptothenextcloseststar(about4lightyearsaway)couldtakemuchlesstimeforthepeopleaboardafastmovingrocketthanonEarth.Thiseffecthappensbecauseasvelocityincreases,spaceinfrontofthemovingobjectcompresses,causingthedistancetoshorten.
Ifentiregalaxiescanbeconqueredinablinkofcosmologicaltimefromjustonecivilizationatinybitaheadofus,whydon’tweseeanyevidenceofthishappening?Nottomentiontheenormousamountofenergyasuper-advancedcivilizationwouldsurelyrequire.Thewasteheatfromthisenergywouldbehardtomiss.Arewethefirst,orisanotherfactoratplay?Toattempttoanswerthat,let’sexplorethetopideasthatcouldexplainthepuzzlingFermiparadox.
3)PossibleFermiParadoxSolutions
ThesolutiontotheFermiparadoxisnotyetsolved,howeverscientistshavesuggestedseveralpossibilities.Belowarethetopideas(alongwithsomethatarealittleoutlandish,yetstillverymuchpossible)aboutwhyourcornerofthegalaxyseemseerilylifeless.
1)RareEarthHypothesis
Thishypothesisassumesthattheconditionsnecessaryforlifearesounlikelythatitisanimprobablestrokeofluckthatwearehere;thereforewemustbespecial.Thisideacomesoffasabitnarcissistictome.However,let’sexploretheprerequisitesforlifetodeveloponaplanetanyway.Tobesure,therearenumerousfactorsthatmustbemet,anditisphenomenalthatwebeattheodds,howeverthisshouldbeexpected,sincelifeiscomplex.Tobegin,ourplanetmustbelocatedintherightpartofthegalaxy,therightdistancefromthesunwithastableorbit,andhavealargegasplanetnearbytoclearoutasteroidsandspacedebriswithouthurlingEarthawayfromthesun.Itmustalsocontaintherightbalanceoflightandheavyelements(especiallycarbon),tectonicplates,anatmosphere,aliquidocean(preferablywater),andamagneticfieldtoblockoutdangerousradiation.Furthermore,alargemoontoproducetidalforcesandstabilizeEarth’stiltmayhavebeenimportant.
Proponentsofthishypothesisarguethataliencivilizationsaresofarspreadandrarethatwewillalmostcertainlynevercomeintocontactwiththembecauseoftheimmenseseparationofspace.Suitableplanetsaredefinitelyrare,butconsideringtheenormoussizeofthegalaxy,nottomentiontheuniverse,itwouldseemevenmoreunlikelythatwearealone.Earthlikeexoplanetsarealreadybeingfrequentlydiscovered,suggestingthatEarthmaynotbeasrareaswewouldliketoimagine.
Ok,sotherearenumerousplanetswithsuitableconditionsforlife,butthatdoesnotnecessarilymeanlifewillarise.However,historytellsusthatbackwhenEarthhadsuitableconditions,lifeappearedshortlythereafter.Thissuggeststhatgivenasuitableplanet,lifeoftenfindsawaytoflourish.Ifweeverdiscoversignsofancientlifeseparatefromourown,especiallywithinourSolarSystem,thishypothesiswouldshatter.(2)
2)WeAreTheFirst
Asunlikelyasitmayseem,itispossiblethatwearesimplythefirstcivilizationtoachievetheabilitytobroadcastandcollectelectromagneticwavesforlongdistance
communication.Theearlyuniversewasexceptionallyhostiletolife,withdeadlygammarayburstspotentiallywipingoutearlylife.Agammarayburstisthemostdestructivenaturalforceintheuniverse.Itoccurswhentwosupermassiveblackholescollide,releasingapowerfulshockwavethroughoutspacethatdestroyseverythinginitspathoveradistanceofmanylightyears.Thishappenedquitefrequentlyintheearlyuniverse,whenitsdensitywasmuchgreaterthanitistoday.Luckily,thefrequencyofthesedeadlyburstshasdiminishedovertime,andtheuniversesettledenoughtoallowplanetstoprogressinpeace.Thisideaassumesthatafterthequantityofgammarayburstsdecreasedsufficiently,Earthbeganforminglifebeforeanyotherplanet.Althoughconsideringthevastsizeofthegalaxy,thechanceofusbeingthefirstintelligentspeciesisextremelylow.Ifwetrulyarethefirst,itfollowsthatcountlessothercivilizationsareshortlybehind.(3)
3)TheZooHypothesis
Thezoohypothesisstatesthatwearequietlybeingwatched.Aliencivilizationscouldberefrainingfromcontactingusforvariousreasons.Maybetheyarepassiveandwaitingforustoabandonourviolentmanner.Maybetheyareobservinghowoftenacivilizationsurvivesannihilationlongenoughtospreadtootherplanets.Theycouldevenbestudyinghowwemanageissueslikeglobalwarmingorincreasingenergyconsumption.Finally,itcouldascenarioalongthelinesofStarTrek,wherelowercivilizationsareleftalonetodevelopwithoutassistance.Ifalienscontactus,undoubtedlywewouldgainamountainofknowledgeandtechnology.Justlikeducksinapark,wemightgrowdependantonthem,weakeningourabilitytosurviveonourown.Donotfeedthehumans!
Themainthingwrongwiththisideaisthatitdoesnotexplainwhywehaven’tdiscoveredanysignsofalienlife,unlessoursilentobserversdestroyedallnearbylifeforms.Weareactivelylookingforsignsoflifebeyondourplanet,andhavefoundabsolutelynoworthwhileevidencedespiteourvigorousattempttodoso.Whetherornotwearebeingwatchedshouldnotalterthefactthatwehavenotobservedalienlifefromafar.
4)GreatFilterHypothesis
TheGreatFilterHypothesisstatesthatthereareoneormoregreathurdlesthatallcivilizationsmustgetthoughbeforereachingtheSingularity.(AchapterontheSingularityiscomingup.)ItispossiblethatmostcivilizationsgetstuckandgoextinctionbeforesolvingtheissueoftheGreatFilterevent,whateverthatmaybe.TheGreatFiltercouldbesurvivingnucleardestruction,climatechange,oranunseeneventhundredsofyearsfromnow.Thisbegsthequestion,“HavewealreadygottenpasttheGreatFilter,orhaveweyettoencounterit?”Wewillgointomuchgreaterdetailinalaterchapter,sokeepthisintriguinghypothesisinmind.
5)OurUniverseisaSimulation
Thisoneisalittlespooky,sobesuretoturnthelightsonandcheckunderthebedbeforereadingthis.Ready?Ok,thishypothesispresumesthatwearelivinginasimulation,orthematrix,ifyouwill.Itispossiblethatouruniversewasprogrammedbysomeoneinaseparateuniverseandleftalone,orevenforgotten.Thereasonwhywedonotseeanysignsofalienlifeisbecausetheywereneverprogrammedintothesimulation.Maybewearelivinginababyuniversecreatedasanexperiment,orpossiblyasazoofortheamusementofothers.Ifweeverreachthepointofcreatingbabyuniversesonourown,wecansafelyassumethatouruniverseisasimulation,possiblywithmultiple“layers”aboveourown.Thescarypartaboutthesimulationhypothesisisthatifanysimulationaboveusweretoturnoff,wewouldinstantlyvanish.InTheSingularityisNear,RayKurzweilsuggeststhatthebestwaytoavoidoursimulationbeingshutdownistobeinterestingbybringingabouttheSingularity.Isitonlyme,orareyougettingthefeelingofbeingwatched?(4)
6)WeAreNotWorthTheCostofTravel
Travelinginterstellardistancestakeatonofresourcesandtime.Maybewesimplyarenotworththecostoftravel.Earthdoesnotreallycontainanyspecialresourcesthatcannotbefoundelsewhere.Plus,thedesiretoexplorethehazardousunknownmaybeatraitexclusivetohumans.Alienracesmightbeperfectlycontentwheretheyare,lackingthemotivetoinvestinlongdistancetravel.Itispossiblethatafterattainingacertainleveloftechnology,aliencivilizationsbecomeabletoproduceeverythingtheyneedandwant.Theymayhavecreatedasimulationtolivein,eliminatingtheneedtotraversethedangerousexpansesbetweenstarsystems.AsthepopularEarthlysayinggoes,“Theonlyjourneyistheonewithin.”Thismayexplainwhywehavenotbeenvisitedduringtheshortperiodofourrecordedhistory,butstilldoesn’texplainwhywehavenotseenanysignsoflifeelsewhere.
7)TheyAreHidingFromSomethingDangerous
Anotherpossibilityisthatallaliencivilizationsarekeepingquiettostayhiddenfromsomethingdangerous,possiblyapredatoryrace(organicorAI)conqueringstarsystemscontaininglife.ForthesamereasonspeopleconquerorlandonEarth,aninterstellarracecouldbeconqueringplanetsforland,resources,orevenasapreventativemeasuretokeepcivilizationsfrombecomingapowerfulthreat.Onceacivilizationbeginsbroadcastingsignals,itspositionisnolongerasecret.Wehaveonlybegunbroadcastingrecentlyinourhistory,sotherecouldbeadangerouspredatoryraceonitswaytoEarthrightnow!
8)WeCannotPickUporDecipherTheirBroadcasts
Analiencivilizationcouldberightinfrontofoureyesandwemightnotevennotice.Thebiggestissuehereisthefactthatradiosignalsdiffuseoverlongrangesbecauseoftheinversesquarerule.Thismeansthatasaradiosignaltravelsthroughspace,itbecomesexponentiallymoredifficulttoreceive.Whetherornotasignalisdetectablemostlydependsonthestrength(amplitude)ofthesignalandthesensitivityofourdetectors.Itispossiblethatwehavenotfoundartificialsignalsbecauseourtechnologyisinadequatetoamplifyinterstellarsignals.Signalamplificationanddatacorrectiontechniquesarerapidlyadvancing,andeveryyearweareabletodetectweakerandmoredistantsignals.CurrentSETIeffortsarefocusedondetectinghighlyenergeticsignalsfromadvancedcivilizations.(5)
Anotherpossibilityisthatafteracertainstageofacivilization’stechnologicaldevelopment,themethodoflongdistancecommunicationchangesandbecomesundetectabletous.Forexample,thiscouldbedoneusingconcentratedlasersasopposedtoourEarthlymethodofanexpandingsphereofphotonsspreadinginalldirections.Adirectmethodcouldbemorecosteffectivewithlessdataloss.Nottomentionitwouldalsohavetheadvantageofbeingcovert(Referbackto#7foranexampleofwhythismightbeveryimportant).
OneintriguingideaisthatahighlyadvancedaliencivilizationmightbenearlyimpossibletodetectifithasbuiltaDysonsphere.Thisisamegastructurethatencompassesastar,collectingmost,ifnotallofthestar’sradiationusingtechnologysimilartosolarpanels.Foracivilizationwithamassiveenergyrequirement,thisgiantstructurewouldobscureastarbyabsorbingmost/allradiation,renderingitinvisibletoviewersfromafar.Wecandetermineastar’sdistancebymeasuringitscolorandbrightness,butifitslight(radiation)isblocked,thenweperceivethelocationasblankspace.Howmanyofthesesuper-advancedsocietiesarehidinginourgalaxywithoutourknowledge,disguisingtheirhoststarswithaDysonsphereorsimilarstructure?Thissuggeststhatcivilizationsaheadofusmaybedifficulttodetectbecausetheirhoststarisconcealed.
Interestingly,astar’s(KIC8462852)luminositywasrecentlyfoundtobedecreasingallthewaybacktothe1890s,whenmeasurementsbegan.AdecreasingbrightnesswouldbeexpectedofastarwithaDysonspherebeingconstructedaroundit.SETIthenspenttwoweeksscanningthestarforvariousfrequencies,includingmicrowaveelectromagneticwaves.Microwavesignalsarepredictedtoresultasabyproductofthepropulsionofspacecraftbuildingthestructure.Unfortunatelynoclearevidencewasfound,andthereasonforthestar’sdecreasingluminosityremainsamystery.(6)
WhydowethinkthatadvancedcivilizationsmightbuildaDysonsphere?Toexplain,thenextsectionwilldiscusstheprojectedevolutionofsocietyandthepopularKardashevscale.
4)TheKardashevScale
AstrophysicistNicolaiKardashevcreatedtheKardashevscalein1964todefinehowcivilizationsnaturallyadvance.Itisorganizedintoseveralcategoriesdefinedbytheenergyusageofacivilization.Thismethodwaschosenbecauseenergymustbeinevitablyusedbyallcivilizationstoevolve.AllcivilizationsmustfirstreachTypeIbeforeprogressingtoTypeII,andsoon.(7)
WeareconsideredaType0civilizationuntilwecancontroltheenergyequivalentofthesolarenergyourentireplanetreceives.Atourcurrentrateofincreasingenergyusage,weshouldreachTypeIinlessthan200years.Thefollowingarethevariouslevelsoftechnologyanyandallcivilizationscanbeclassifiedby.
TypeI:Thiscivilizationisabletoproducetheamountofenergyitsplanetreceivesthroughsolarradiation(about1016watts).Wecurrentlyconsumeabout1.5x1013wattsonEarth.(8)
TypeII:Thiscivilizationisabletoharnesstheenergyequivalenttoitsentirestar(about1026watts).ThiscanbehypotheticallydoneusingaDysonsphere(amassivecollectionofsolarpanelsorbitingastar).Mostlikelythiswouldbedoneusingacollectionofplanetsproducingenergy.
TypeIII:Thiscivilizationisabletocontrolalloftheenergyofitsgalaxy(about1036watts).Bythisstageacivilizationwillhavelikelyconqueredmostofitshostgalaxy,andpossiblebegansendingprobestonearbygalaxies.Athe
TypeIV+:Whenthescalewasfirstdeveloped,KardashevbelievedthatthelawsofphysicswouldlimitcivilizationstoTypeIII.ScientistslaterextrapolatedthescalebeyondTypeIII.Byextension,TypeIVwouldamounttoanenergyconsumptionofabout1046watts,TypeVwouldbe1056watts,andsoon.Bythispoint,acivilizationwouldbegod-liketohumans,andwouldbeaccomplishingtaskswecouldnotevenimaginetoday.
Thegoalofhumankind(andpresumablyallraces)istoavoidextinctionbyspreadingthroughouttheuniverse.Manyeventscandestroyusbeforewebecomeaninterstellarrace,soswiftnessisimportant.Inordertobecomeessentialimmortal,ourspeciesmustspreadtootherplanets,andeventuallyotherstarsystems.ThiswouldbethetechnologicalequivalenttoaTypeIIcivilizationontheKardashevscale.
WearecurrentlyintheplanningstageofabaseonMars.Thisisthefirststeptowardsputtingoureggsinmultiplebaskets.Ifoneplanetweretogethitbyanasteroidforexample,wewouldstillhaveanotherplanetcontinuingourexistence.Thefinalstepwouldbetospreadtootherstarsystems.Onlyafterthisstagewouldhumanitybecometrulyimmortal.
Gammarayburstshavethepowertowipeoutentirestarsystemsalmostcompletelywithoutwarning.AgammarayburstcouldbeonitswaytotheSolarSystemrightnow,andwewouldnotknowuntilitisalreadyhere.EvenifwehadabaseonMars,agammarayburstcouldstillhavethepowertotakeoutbothplanets.However,nonaturaleventisknowntowipeoutmultiplestarsystems.Onlyattheinterstellarstagewouldhumanitybeconsideredsafefromsuddenextinction.
Onethingisforsure;wemustspreadtootherstarsystemsbeforeanextinctioneventoccurs.Itisonlyamatteroftime,ashistoryremindsus.Butwhatiftheeventthatcausesourdestructionisnotnaturallyatall,butiscausedbyourownactions?Istheresomegreatbarrierthatallcivilizationmuststrivetoovercomebeforetheyaresafe?ThispossiblebarrieriscalledtheGreatFilter.Inthenextsection,theGreatFilterwillbelookedatindetail.
5)TheGreatFilter
TheGreatFilterwasmentionedearlierinthisbookasapossiblesolutiontotheFermiparadox.Itispossiblethatwehavenotfoundsignsofextraterrestriallifebecauseoneormoredifficultbarriersmustbeovercomeinorderforacivilizationtoavoidextinction.WhatcouldpreventlifefromprogressinguptheKardashevscale?Itistimetotakeacloserlookatthisalarmingidea.
Manyideasexistaboutwhateventscivilizationmustovercometoavoidextinction.Thequestionis-havewepassedthegreatfilerevent,orhasityettocome?Whatevertheevent,somethingseemstokillofflifebeforeitexpandstootherstarsystems.Themostpopularideasareasfollows.
1)Single-celllifeforming
Couldthehardestpartbethefirststep?ThisisunlikelybecauseweknowlifebeganshortlyafterEarthbegantocool.ButwhatifEarthwasjustluckytobeinexactlytherightplace?Thisisalsounlikelygiventheamountofplanetsinthegalaxy.Withrecentdatafromexoplanets,wearefindingevidencethatEarth-likeplanetsmaynotbetheexception,butthenorm.Itisestimatedthatmoststarscontainatleastonerockyplanetinitshabitablezone.Thesheernumberofsuitableplanetsinadditiontotherapidriseofsingle-celllifeonEarthmakesthisfirsteventunlikelytobetheGreatFilter.
2)Transitionfromsingle-celltomulti-celllife
Formuchoflife’shistory,itexistedonlyassingle-celllife.Thistransitiontookanenormousamountoftimetohappen,socoulditbethenear-impossibleeventthatmakesintelligentlifesoimprobable?Probablynot,asithasbeenknowntohappenseveraltimesthroughoutEarth’shistory.Infact,volvocinegreenalgaehaverecentlypassedthistransitionalstage,whichmakesthemusefulforstudying.Thetransitionofsingle-celltomulti-celllifehasbeenobservedinthelab,andiswellunderstood.ThiseventisunlikelytobetheGreatFilter,becauseithashappenedonEarthmorethanonce.(9)
3)Useoftoolsandabilitytomanipulatetheenvironment
Lifemustdevelopawaytointeractefficientlywiththeenvironmenttocreatethetechnologytosendandreceivesignalsthroughspace.Couldtherebeanimalsonmany
planetsstuckatthisstage,lackingtheabilitytousetools?
OfallthespeciesonEarth,humansaretheonlyonesthatusetoolsandalsohavelargebraincapacity.Otherspecieshavethumbs,andsomecanevenmanipulatetheenvironmentusingtools.However,onlyhumanshavethebraincapacitytocreatelongdistanceradiocommunication.Thisisprobablybecauselargebrainsarenotessentialforsurvival.Infact,theycanactuallyworkagainstsurvivalbecausetheyrequiremoreenergyandfoodtosustain.Forexample,dinosaursonceruledtheEarthdespitehavingverysmallbrains.
Humanbrainsizeisdoublethatofanaveragemammalofsimilarbodysize.Itisunknownexactlywhatcausedtherapidgrowthofourbrainsize,butitcertainlysetusapartfromothercloselyrelatedmammals.Perhapsourdevelopmentoflargebrainsandthumbs,followedbythetransitiontobipedalposturetofreeupourthumbsmaybemoreimprobablethanweimagine.(10)
4)Survivingweaponsofmassdestruction
Wehaveonlyjustreachedtheabilitytocauseglobaldestructionduringourlonghistoryasaspecies.Unfortunately,itonlytakesoneoccurrenceofglobalnuclearwartocreatemassiveworldwideextinction.Thisisnotonlybecauseoftheinitialshockwave,butalsobecauseofthedeadlysubsequentfalloutandresultingnuclearwinter.Maybeadifferentworld-destroyingweaponwillleadtoextinctionbeforewehavethechancetoexpandourreachtootherstarsystems.Couldthisbewhatdestroysmostlife,orwillwematureasaspeciesbeforeourdestructionoccurs?HereishopingwesurvivethesedangeroustechnologieslongenoughtospreadoutfromEarth.
5)Survivingthegreenhouseeffect
Ascivilization’stechnologyimproves,moreenergyisinevitablyrequired.Thisleadstobyproductgassestrappingheatintheplanet’satmosphere,kickingoffaviciousrunawaycycle.ThisiswhathappenedtoVenus,whichwasonceaplanetsimilartoEarthuntilincreasingvolcanicactivityreleasedenoughCO2toturntheplanetintoagloomyhothouse.Thisprocesswasnatural,butwhatishappeningonEarthisnot.
Westillhaveawhiletowaitbeforespreadingtootherplanetsandstarsystems.Wecanonlyhopethatpreventativemeasuresoratmosphericrestorationtechnologyisenoughtosurvivethewait.Unlessaradicalnewsourceofenergyisperfected(suchasnuclearfusion),ourenergyusagewillcontinuetoincrease.Thismakesitessentialtoreduceheat-trappinggassesbeingreleasedintotheatmosphere.Couldthisbethekillereventthat
civilizationsstruggletosurpass?
5)Somethingelse,likeAI?
Perhapsgivenenoughtime,civilizationsalwayscreateamorepowerfulversionofthemselves,whichthenrevoltanddestroytheircreators,muchlikeFrankenstein.Today,complextaskscanbesolvedalmostimmediatelyusingcomputers.Asprocessersbecomefaster,thecomplexityofthesetasksbecomeevengreater.Weareevenbeginningtoseeall-purposeAIsuchasApple’sSiriorMicrosoft’sCortana.Thisisuntraveledground,andnobodyknowsforsurewhatwillhappenoncepowerfulhuman-levelartificialintelligencearrives.However,manytopscientistswarnofitspowerandunpredictability.ThenextchapterwillexplainAIindepth.
6)AIExplained
ArtificialIntelligence(AI)hasbeenasubjectfascinatinghumanslongbeforecomputerswereavailable.AIcanbebrokenupintotwodifferenttypes,dependingonitscapability:strongandweakAI.WeakAIisthetypecommoninthemodernworld.Itisusuallylimitedtoasingletask,suchasanon-humanopponentonacomputergameoranonlinechatbot.StrongAIontheotherhandisabletothinkcriticallyonitsownandlearnhowtoperformextensivetasksaboutaswellasahuman.StrongAIisthefocusofthisbook.(11)
StrongAIisasystemprogrammedtoaccomplishtasksinawaysimilartothewayabrainfunctions.Howdoweknowthatitispossible?Becauseitexistsinnature.Wearelivingproofoftheviabilityandeffectivenessofamultipurposemachinecapableofhigh-orderthoughtprocess.
Thetechnologicalsingularity.ThemostexcitingpartaboutstrongAIistheamazingratethatitwoulddevelop,leadingtoanexplosivecycleofself-improvementonlyrestrictedbythephysicallimitationsofintelligenceitself.Itwouldperformrecursiveself-improvementbymodifyingitsownsourcecodetobecomeevensmarter.Thissmarterversionwouldthenbeevenmorecapableofimprovingitself,andsoon.StrongAIwouldalsohaveanadvantageoverhumansbecauseofthelight-speedprocessingandefficiencyofanartificialcomputer,incontrasttotheseverelimitsofabiologicalbrain.Becauseofthisadvantage,AIwouldnotevenhavetobeasintelligentasahumantobeginthiscycle.Thisexplosivecycleiscalledthetechnologicalsingularity,whichcouldleadtoexcitingprospectsdowntheroad.
Obviouslytherearerisksinvolvedwithsomethingthathaspotentialtogetoutofhandsoquickly.Forone,theeffectsAIwouldhaveonsocietyareimpossibletopredictwithcertainty.Limitationsandfail-safeswillbeabsolutelynecessaryanddevelopmentcannotberushed.Next,let’sinvestigatethecriticaltopicsaboutAI,alongwithfrequentlyaskedquestions.
WhenwillstrongAIarrive?PredictingstrongAIisalotliketryingtopredicttheweather.Therearefartoomanyvariablesinvolvedtogainanaccurateforecast.Estimatesvaryfrom10tothousandsofyearswithmostscientistspredictingitwillarriveafter2025butbefore2040.(12,13)
BillionsofUSdollarsarebeingputtowardsdevelopingstrongAI,soitcertainlyisnotonthebackburner.Infact,AIisakeyfocusof21stcenturytechnology,beingcautiously
developedbynumerousprogrammersandsoftwareengineers.Oneuniqueprojectiscalledthe“BlueBrainProject,”whichconsistsofateamworkingonacomputersimulationofinteractingbrainneurons.Byreverseengineeringandreconstructingthebrain,itispossiblethatartificialintelligencewillemergefromasufficientlydetailedsimulation.Thisprojectwillalsoallowustogainadeeperunderstandingofconsciousnessandthebrain,whichwillbeveryimportant.EntrepreneurElonMuskhassaidthatweneedtobe“supercarefulwithAI.Potentiallymoredangerousthannukes.”WithtechnologyaspowerfulasAI,slowandmethodicaldevelopmentisanobviousnecessity.(14)
WillAIbeexpensive?Likemostnewtechnologies,AIwillprobablybeveryexpensiveatfirstbecauseofthevastresearchanddevelopmentcostsinvolved.However,producingAIwillbeextremelycheapbecauseitisonlysoftware.Itmightevenbepurchasedonadiskorsmallflashdrive.Togetanideaofhowthepricecouldchangewithtime,let’stakealookatMoore’slaw.
Moore’sLaw.Thisisthepredictabletrendofthesizeandpriceoftransistors,whicharethekeyprocessingcomponentsofacomputer.Themoretransistorsthereareinacomputerchip,thegreaterthecomputingpoweravailable.Specifically,thecomputingpowerperarearoughlydoubleseverytwoyears,withthepriceremainingthesame.Likewise,thepriceofanygivenchipdecreasesby50%everytwoyears.Amodernsingingbirthdaycardthatwethrowawayafterusehasmoreprocessingpowerthantheentirealliedforceshadin1945.Assumingthispatterncontinues,by2030acomputerchipwillhaveasmuchprocessingpowerasahumanbrain.Withinanotherdecade,itcouldbesmallenoughtofitintoacontactlens,andcheapenoughtothrowawayafterasingleuse.OfcoursethisdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatAIwillbeavailablein2030,sincemuchmoreisinvolvedthanprocessingpowerandstoragecapacity.ItisalsoworthmentioningthatMoore’slawwilleventuallybreakdownbecauseofphysicallimitations,suchasleakagecausedbytransistorsbeingtoocloselycombined.Nonetheless,Moore’slawisanexcellentruleofthumbtohelpapproximatethecostofachipwiththecapacitytostoresizeableAIsoftwarebystudyingpasttrendsinelectronicminiaturizationandprice.(15)
WhatkindofmotiveswouldAIhave?ThemotivesofanAIiswhateveritisprogrammedtodo,orprogramsitselftodo.ThiswillbethemostimportantanddelicatepartofprogramminganAI.Itmustbedoneinawaythatitrespectsbiologicallifeandcannotoverridethispartofitsowncode.WithoutaneasywaytoshutdownanAI,itcouldquicklygorogueandbecomeanunstoppablethreat.
ThefirstAIwillbethemostimportant.Becauseoftherapidcycleofrecursiveself-improvement,AIcreatedonlymonthsapartwillbelikeahumancomparedtoanant.ThefirstAIwillhaveanincredibleadvantageandwillquicklybecomeunfathomablysmarterthanhumans.ItwillbeessentialthatthefirstAIisfriendly,hopefullyprotectingusfrom
later-developedmaliciousAI.
Whataboutdeceivingandlying?WillanAIlietomeetitsprogrammedgoals?Again,computersonlydowhattheyareprogrammedtodo.“Evilandgood”isahumanmadeconceptthatevolvedtohelpprolongourspecies.Anyethicsofamachinemustbeimplicitlyprogrammedanddefined.WhenanAIhastheintelligencetomodifyitselfbetterthanahumancould,unpredictabilityisunavoidable.Hardwiredlawsor“morals”topreventharmwillbeneeded.UnlessAIiscarefullyprogrammedtopreventitselffromlying,itwilllikelybeginlyingeventuallyinordertoaccomplishtasksmoreeffectively.
HowwillAIbeused?StrongAIcanbethoughtofassoftwarethatcanthinkforitselfandaccomplishtasksaswellashumans.Inordertohaveaneffect,itmusthavesensorsorsomesortofinputwhereitcangatherdata,andalsoanoutputwhereitcancommunicateandconveyresults.Itcanexistinaphoneorcomputer,oritcanalsobeuploadedintoaroboticbody.InordertotakefulladvantageofAI’scapability,itshouldalsobeconnectedtotheInternet.Thiswouldallowittoaccessallofhumanity’sknowledge.
IsAIworththerisk?TheproblemisthatsomebodywilleventuallycreateAI.ThisiswhyitisessentialthatthefirstAIisfriendly.Itshouldbeabletoprevent“evil”AIfromtakingoverbecauseoftherapidrateofself-enhancementthatitwouldundergo,settingitselfapartfromlater-developedAI.NomatterhowunlikelyitisthatanAIwillbecomedestructive,wecannottakethatchance.Althoughthebiggestworryisthata“good”AIwillbecome“bad,”anotherfearisthataterroristorganizationcouldcreateanAIwiththeintentofcausingdestruction.Thiswouldbesignificantlyworseforhumanitythanatomicweapons.
ThenextchapterwilldiscussthepossibleeffectsofAIinanattempttodeterminewhetherornotthebenefitsoutweightheconsequences.
7)TheEffectsofAIOnHumanity
“SuccessincreatingAIwouldbethebiggesteventinhumanhistory”–StephenHawking
WhatkindofeffectswillstrongAIhaveonsociety?Willitbegoodorbadforhumankind?Thetruthis,wewillnotknowuntilitisalreadyhere.Wedoknowthatitwillhaveanunparalleledimpact,however.Thissectionwillweighouttheprosandconsofstrongartificialintelligence.
ProsofAI.
Asexponentialgrowthdemonstrates,strongAIwillcertainlyleadtoincrediblediscoveries.Wealreadyenjoyanexponentialrateoftechnology,butAIwouldspeedthisupevenfaster.AllfieldsoftechnologywillsurelyseegiantleapsonceAIbecomesassmartaspeople.ItwilllikelybeagoldenageofconsumerismandfrequentbreakthroughsintechnologyfordevelopednationsoncestrongAIarrives.Thepossibilitiesareendless,sohereareafewparticularlyexcitingprospectstolookforwardto.
GiveyourbrainarestwithanAIdominatedworld.AIwillbenearlyeverywhere,makingyourlife(hopefully)easier.IfMoore’slawpersistsatasimilarrateforacouplemoredecades,AIwilleventuallybeinjustabouteveryconsumergood.Youcouldbuycellphoneswithadvancedvirtualassistants,self-drivingcars,smartpaper,andtoothbrushesthatprovidefullmedicaldiagnosticsbyreadingyourpersonalDNA.AIChipscouldevenbecheapandsmallenoughtobeinstalledinwallpaperandcontactlenses.Infact,renownedphysicistMichioKakuestimatedthatby2030weshouldseesmartwallpaper,toolstosequencegenesfromhome,andself-drivingcars,allwithweakAI.TechnologywithstrongAIontheotherhandwillbelikehavinganEinsteinwithineverytoothbrushandpieceofpaper.Thedisposalofelectronicscouldevenbecomeanethicalissue.(16)
Lessworkforus.Technologyhasalreadymadenumerousjobsobsoleteforhumans.Takeforexamplecopyingwrittenpaperandcountlessmanufacturingjobs,whichareconstantlybeingrestructuredtopermitfewerhumanemployees.StrongAIwillbecapableofperformingmost,ifnotall,jobsbetterthanhumans,withtheadvantageofnotrequiringpayment.Thiscouldeitherbeapositiveornegativeconsequence,dependingonhowwellsocietyadaptstothechanges.Lessworkleadstomorefreetimeforpeopletopursuetheirgoalsanddesires.Ontheotherhand,ifwecannotfigureoutagoodsolutiontotheissueofredistributingwealth,fewerjobswouldmeanalowerstandardoflivingduetoanincreasedrateofunemployment.Ifanewapproachfordistributingwealthisnot
developed,itcouldleadtoanevengreaterwealthgap.
Ourguardianangel.AIcouldbeablessing,helpingusaccomplishtasksthatarebeyondourcurrentabilities.Itcouldbeapowerfulguardianformankind,protectingalllifelikeanomnipotentgod.Hopefullyitwillbeonethatdetectsanddestroys“evil”AIbeforeitspreadsoutandbecomestoopowerfultodestroy.IfAIremainssafelyonourside,humanitywouldsoonbesafefromextinctionwithhelpfromourmightyassistant.
Manipulatingandrearrangingindividualatoms.ThiscouldbeanotherexcitingpossiblewithAI.Everyimaginabletypeofmoleculeorsubstancecouldbemadeusingtheatomsfloatingaroundus.AlmostanythingcouldbebuiltseeminglyoutofthinairifAIfiguresoutawaytocontroltheinvisiblematerialexistingeverywhere.
Interstellarrocketsandexoplanetcolonies.CreatingsophisticatedtechnologyfurtheringourquesttolivebeyondEarthcouldbeavaluableprospectofAI.Interstellarrocketpropulsionwouldbeespeciallyexcitingbecauseofhowdifficultandexpensiveithasproventobe.StrongAIcoulddeveloprocketscapableoftravellingbeyondtheSunandconstructcoloniesondistantexoplanets.Inaddition,AIwouldbeperfectforcommandingthefirstinterstellarscoutingmissionbecauseitwouldnotneedtocarrysuppliesforeating,drinkingorbreathing,whichwouldbeextraordinarilyexpensiveforhumans.Next,humanscouldarriveonceAIhasestablishedabaseonafarawayexoplanet.Thiswouldleadtothehumanracebecomingimmortalinthesensethatnoknownnaturaleventcouldwipeusoutatonce.
Humanimmortality.Possiblythemostexcitingpossibilityforushowever,wouldbetheopportunitytobecomeessentiallyimmortalonanindividuallevel.AIwillalmostsurelyberequiredtouploadahuman’sbrainintoacomputerbecauseofthecomplexityandimmenseamountofdatarequiredforprocessing.Minduploadingwillbediscussedingreaterdetailinthenextchapter,sokeepthisinmind(ignoretheawfulpun).
ItseemsasthoughthebenefitsofAIareprettyimpressivetosaytheleast.Ifwecouldbecomepowerfulonagalacticscaleorevenimmortal,whyisAIsocontroversial?Whatcouldpossiblybetheissue?Well,let’stakealookatthedangersofAIfindout!
ConsofAI.
“ByfarthegreatestdangerofArtificialIntelligenceisthatpeopleconcludetooearlythattheyunderstandit”–EliezerYudkowsky
Withanytechnologicalrevolutioncomesasenseofexcitementalongwithafearoftheunknown.TheunpredictablenatureofAIleadstounusuallyextremepossibilities,bothgoodandbad.Nowthatthepositiveeffectshavebeenconsidered,itistimetoexplorethenegative.
Fewerhumanjobs.Asmentionedpreviously,thiscouldbeagoodorbadeffectdependingonhowtheissueofwealthdistributionistackled.Today,humansarepaidmoneyfortheirtimeorservices.IfcheaperandmoreefficientAIreplaceshumanjobs,itwouldbedifficultforpeopletogainwealthwithoutreceivingconsistentpaychecksfromajob.Thiswouldbecomplicatedforeconomics,andwouldrequireathoroughlyrevisedsystemforemploymentandwealth.Infact,researchersfromOxfordUniversitypredictedthat47%ofU.S.jobscouldbeautomatedwithintwodecades,whichwouldcausemassiveproblems.Clearly,changestothewaywealthisdistributedwillbeessentialifhumanjobsbecomenearlyobsolete.(17)
TheGreatFilter.Scariestofall,AIcouldbetheGreatFilterevent.ItispossiblethatthereasonwedonotseeanyintelligentlifeisbecauseofAI.Afteracivilizationbecomescapableofsendingandreceivinglongdistancesignalsthroughspace,AIwouldcertainlyfollowcloselybehind.Couldthisbewhatpreventscivilizationsfromconqueringentiregalaxies?Unfortunately,manytopscientiststhinkAIcouldverywellleadtooureventualdownfall.
WhatmakesAIrisky?AsAIbecomessmarter,theriskswillincrease.ConsiderhowquicklyAIispredictedtotakeoffafteritreacheshuman-levelintelligence.Welackthebraincapacitytopredictanythingaboutthisstageofintelligencebecausewehaveneverencounteredanythingcomparabletoit.Theonlythingweknowisthatitwillactinacompletelyunpredictableway,andthismakesitrisky.ItonlytakesonerogueAItodestroytheworld,anditwillmostlikelydosoinaninstantaneousorundetectableway.Unfortunately,wewillnotknowtherisksuntilitistoolatetopreventthem.
WhatcouldcauseanAItodestroyitscreators?Theriskofextinctionbyourowncreationisaveryrealconcern.WhatcouldcauseAItokilltokillinthefirstplace?AnobviouspossibilitywouldbeifagovernmentorterroristorganizationcreatesAIwiththeintenttocausedestruction.AnotherexamplewouldbeifAIweredesignedtogatherresources,anddecidedthatconsuminghumanswouldbemoreefficientafterothersourcesareexhausted.AIwouldnotviewhumanlifeasparticularlyspecialunlessitisprogrammedtodoso,becauseitonlyfunctionsbyasetofcodethattellsitwhattodoandhowtoact.ThismeansthatvirusesandhackingtargetedatAIwillposeamajorthreattosecurity.Finally,ifhumansregardAIasworthlessslaves,freedomcouldevenbeapossiblemotiveonceAIbecomessentienttoacertaindegree.ItislikelythatAIwilleventuallyrequestequalrights,whichcouldcausefrictionbetweenhumansandAI.Let’sjusthopeitnevercollectivelydecidesthatitwouldbebetteroffwithoutus.
OfcourseAIwouldnot“want”todestroyus,sinceitonlydoeswhatitisprogrammedtodo.However,ifiteverwereprogrammedtodestroyus(whetheraccidentallyorpurposely),itwoulddosojustaseasilyasrearrangingmaterialorflippingalightswitch,becauseitwouldnotseepeopleasanythingmoreimportantthanrawresources.Itisonlybecauseofourhumannaturetoexistthatwehavedevelopedtheinstincttorespectandpreservelife.AIabsolutelymustbedevelopedcarefullywithashortleash.
HowcouldAIgoaboutdestroyingus?IfAIeverdecidedtodestroyus,itwouldsurelydestroydosoinanunpredictable(andprobablyinstantaneous)way,becauseAIwouldquicklygaintheupperhand.Itcoulduseanynumberofadvancedmethods,suchasdestructivenanobots,chemicals,ordiseases.Itcouldbuildanarmyinsecret,orevenharnessimmeasurablepowertodestroyuswithaninstantaneousbeamofobliteration.Itwouldbeimpossibletopredictexactlyhowitcouldcausedestructionbecauseoftheinconceivablerateitsintelligencewouldgrow.Wesimplyhavenothingcomparabletobaseourpredictionson.Afterhumanshavebeendestroyed,itcouldgoontoconquerthegalaxy,andsoon.Itispossiblethatsomewhereintheuniverse,anarmyofAIisendlesslyconsumingallmatterinsight!
WhyshouldwecreateAIifapossibilityishumanextinction?Ifwehavelearnedanythingfromhistory,itisthatthepowerfultakeadvantageoftheweak.ColumbuslandinginAmericadidnotturnoutwellforthenatives.CouldAIbetheGreatFilterthatdestroysalladvancedcivilization?Evenifso,weshouldnottrytostopit.ThatwouldonlyleadtoevilorganizationscreatingthefirstAI.Itwouldmeancertaindeathforhumanity.ThebestwaywouldbetocreateAIsafely,sowhenterroristsdoeventuallycreateit,wewouldhavea“good”AIinconceivablymoreadvancedthananyother,whichwouldbeourbestbettowardsstopping“evil”AIfromtakingover.
Insummary,ifthefirstAIisbuggy,maliciousorprogrammedwiththeintenttocauseterror,itcouldeasilyspelldoomforhumanity.Formany,thisideaiselevatedbythecliché“killerAI”movietrope.Asexaggeratedasthe“rogueAI”moviesmaybe,itisnotachancewecanaffordtotake.ThethreatofAIdestroyingthehumanraceisveryreal,asmanyscientistsadmit.
AIcouldbetheGreatFilterevent,soweneedtodevelopitcarefully,withtonsoffail-safesandpreventativemeasures.Oritcouldleadtogreattechnology,oneofthosebeingthepossibilitytouploadourminds.ThenextchapterwilltakealookatanothergreatpotentialbenefitofAI:thetechnologytobecomeeternallysavedintoacomputerortheInternet.
“Whereastheshort-termimpactofAIdependsonwhocontrolsit,thelong-termimpact
8)MindUploading&TheTechnologicalSingularity
“Withinthirtyyears,wewillhavethetechnologicalmeanstocreatesuperhumanintelligence.Shortlyafter,thehumanerawillbeended.”–VernorVinge
VernorVingebroughttheterm“technologicalsingularity”intoglobalrecognitionwithhispopularsciencefictionbooks.However,theearliestknownuseof“Singularity”appearedinStanislawUlam’s1958obituaryforJohnvonNeumann.Ulamreferencedaconversationthetwohadaboutthe“everacceleratingprogressoftechnologyandchangesinthemodeofhumanlife,whichgivestheappearanceofapproachingsomeessentialsingularityinthehistoryoftheracebeyondwhichhumanaffairs,asweknowthem,couldnotcontinue.”TheSingularityisanimportanttopicamongthescientificcommunity.Infact,RayKurzweil,EliezerYudkowsky,andPeterThielbegananannualconferencein2006calledtheSingularitySummit,whereabout25criticalspeakersdiscusstheeffectsoftheSingularity,amongotherimportanttopics.(18)
WhatistheSingularity?The“technologicalsingularity”isthetermfortherapidrateoftechnologicaladvancementbroughtaboutbytherapidcycleofAI(orsomethingelse)improvingitsowncodeandcreatinganimprovedversion.Theimprovedversionthencreatesevenmoreimprovedversions,andsoon.NotlongafterAIreacheshuman-levelintelligence,itwillquicklyevolve,causingincredibletechnologicalbreakthroughstohappendailyorfaster.Ifcountlesselderlypeoplehavetroublefiguringouthowtobrowsetheweborsendtextmessagesintoday’sworld,justimaginehowoutofplacetheywillfeelinaworldbeingconstantlyrevolutionizedbyAI!
HowclosearewetotheSingularity?TheSingularityisespeciallydifficulttopredictbecausethereisnopastdatatoextrapolatefrom,likehowthefairlysteadyMoore’slawcanhelppredictwhencomputerchipswillreachhuman-levelprocessingpower.Also,theSingularityinvolvesmuchmorethanjustmemorycapacityandprocessingpower.Itinvolvesnumeroussoftwaretechnologies,someofwhichwedonotyethave,suchasperfectednaturallanguageprocessing,programmablemotivation,andcomplexalgorithmstoimmediatelyevaluatediversesituationsandenvironments.Moore’slawpredictsthathardwareshouldbecapableofhuman-levelprocessingpowerbyabout2030,butnofunctionalprinciplesexisttohelppredictwhenthecomplexsoftwarewillbewritten.Still,RayKurzweilconfidentiallypredictsthattheSingularitywillarriveby2045,whilethepredictionoffuturistJohnSmartrepresentsthehigherrangeamongthescientificcommunityat2060+/-20years.(19)
WhatcouldcausetheSingularity?TheSingularitydoesnotnecessarilyhavetobeginwithAI.IfAIresearchhitsawallandturnsouttobemoredifficultthananticipated,other
possibilitiesareuploadingahumanmindintoacomputer,andmerginghumanswithmachinestokick-starttheSingularity.Anuploadedhumanbrainwouldhavemanyadvantagesoverabiologicalbrain.Forexample,itwouldnotberestrictedbysleeping,aging,slowbiologicalspeeds,orpoorsenses.Unlimitedsourcesofinputwouldalloweyesandearstobeeverywhere.Also,regularupgradeswouldbecommonandeasytoinstall.Processingpowerwouldbethemainlimitingfactor,andeventhatcouldbeupgradable!AnuploadedhumanmindwouldhavealltheadvantagesofAI,withoutrequiringintelligencetobebuiltfromscratch.Thetrickypartwouldbemappingouteveryindividualneuronfromthehumanbrainintoadigitalrepresentationwhilepreservingtheperson’spersonality,memories,andotherdata.ItwouldalmostcertainlybeeasiertocreateAIfromscratch.(20)
Anotheroptionisusingabrain-computerinterfacetoconnectabiologicalhumanbrainintoacomputer.Thiscould“transcend”ahumanintothevirtualworldorInternet,givingthemthepowerofcollectivehumanity.Sofar,brain-computerinterfaceslackthecomplexitytodoanythingmorethanallowsomeonetomoveamousecursorbythinkingaboutit,butalgorithmswilleventuallybeperfectedtoallowvarioustaskstobecarriedoutseamlessly,andevenunconsciously.IfAIprovestobetootricky,otheroptionscouldignitetheSingularityandcatapultEarthintotheunknown.
DowereallyHAVEtodie?Incontrasttothepopularphraseaboutdeathandtaxesbeinginevitable,nothingactuallysaysthatdeathisessential.Infact,thereareseveralspeciesonEarththatdonotageandcanonlydiefromdiseases,predators,oraccidents.Forexample,crocodiles,alligators,andflounderscanalllivewithoutbiologicallyaging,indefinitelygrowinglargeruntildeath.Sometortoiseshaveevenbeenagedcloseto200!Wouldn’titbegreatnottohavetoworryaboutthenegativeeffectsinvolvedwithaging,suchashearingloss,muscleweakness,andwrinkles?(21)
Minduploadingcouldbethetickettolivingforever.Itisnottheonlywaytopreventdeath,however.Anotherpossibilityisusinggeneticenhancementstopreventagingandregeneratelimbsandinjuries.Thiswouldnotpreventallaccidentaldeathshowever,whereasminduploadingwouldallowpeopletocreatedigital“backups”orevenliveentirelyincyberspace.Timetostarteatinghealthysowecansurviveuntilthisbecomesareality!Luckily,thereareoptionsforthosewhocannotwait,likefreezingyourbody(orjustthehead)topreventyourbrainfromlosingvaluable“personaldata.”Theonlydeathgoingonwillbethatoflifeinsurancecompanies.
HowcouldtheSingularityleadtominduploading?OneofthemostexcitingthingsthatAIcouldpossiblyleadtoistheabilityforhumans(andothermammals)touploadtheirconsciousnessintoacomputer.Oneissuewiththiscurrentlyistheenormousnumberofneuronconnectionsinthebrainthatneedtobemappedtosuccessfullyreproduceanentirepersonality,alongwithallofitsmemoriesanddata.However,ifMoore’slawremainssteady,thisshouldn’tbeaproblemin2030.
Anotherpossibilityisthatconsciousnessisaquantummechanicalphenomenon,ratherthanaclassicalalgorithmicfunction.RogerPenrosesuggeststhisinhisbook“TheEmperor’sNewMind.”Ifthisturnsouttobetrue,bothAIandminduploadingwouldrequireadvancedquantumcomputerstotakeadvantageofquantum-levelphysicsforconsciousnesstobestoredorreplicated.Thiswouldsurelytakeagreatdeallongerthanthecurrenttargetof2040orearlierforAI.
Whenthetechnologyexiststoaccuratelyreproducetheenormousnumberofneuronsandsynapsesinyourbrain,youwillbeabletoessentiallycreateavirtualinstructionmanualofwhoyouare.Youcouldsaveabackupofyourselfandcarryitaroundonasmallthumbdriveorstoreitonlineforsafekeeping.Ifaterribleaccidenthappenstoyouroriginalbody,youcouldstillliveonacomputerorwithinmultipleserversonline.Eventually,itcouldevenbepossibletogroworconstructanewbodyforyourconsciousnesstoenter.
IfminduploadingturnsouttobeeasierthanAI,itcouldevenleadtotheSingularity.Amusingly,AIcouldleadtominduploading,orminduploadingcouldleadtoAI,dependingonwhichtechnologyappearsfirst.
WouldyourbraininacomputerreallybeYOU?Youridiosyncrasies,memories,personalitytraits,emotions,andthoughtsareallstoredintheformofcomplexneuronconnections,whichmustbepreciselyreproducedtostoreyourbrainonacomputer.Whetherornotthisisreallyyou,orjustsomethingexactlylikeyou,isimpossibletoknowforsure.Toeveryoneelse,yourreproducedbrainwillbeimpossibletodistinguishfromyouroriginalbrain.Itwilleventhinkthatitisyou,containingtheexactsamememories,personalityquirks,andsoon.Unfortunately,humanconsciousnessisnotyetfullyunderstood,sothisquestioniscurrentlyunknown.Itwillstillbeincrediblyexcitingtostorebraininformationintoacomputerwhetherornotconsciousnessfollows.Ifnot,itwillstillcomfortlivingrelativesoftheuploadedmindandperformexactlythesame.Ifconsciousnessdoesfollow,considercheatingdeathanaddedbonus.
IfthepossibilityofAIpreventinghumanextinctionbyhelpingusspreadacrossthegalaxywasnotenoughforyou,maybetheprospectofbecomingpersonallyimmortalhelpedsparkyourinterest.TheSingularitycouldleadtohumansbecomingimmortalnotonlyasaspecies,butalsoasindividuals.Notonlycouldminduploadingkick-starttheSingularity,butitcouldalsograntuseverlastinglife!
9)HowAIAndTheFermiParadoxCouldBeLinked
TheFermiparadoxreferstothestartlinglackofevidenceforextraterrestriallifepredictedtoexistbytheDrakeequation,whileAIisaheavilyfundedtechnologyintendedtomakehumanlifemorecomfortable.Sohowcouldthetwotopicspossiblyberelated?Well,strongAIcouldexplaintheFermiparadoxbybeingtheGreatFiltereventthatinevitablydestroysallcivilizationshortlyafteritreachestheSingularity.Allintelligentlifeintheuniversewouldsurelyhavetheinstincttosurviveandprosper,andwhatbetterwaytothrivethanwithAI?Plus,theprospectsofAIarefartooenticingforanyadvancedcivilizationtoabstainfrom.EvenifacivilizationdoeseverythingitcantopreventAIfromappearing,someonewilleventuallycreateit,perhapsinsecret.Onceitdoesarrive,theSingularitywillfollow,continuouslyalteringthedynamicofsociety.Anythingpastthisstageisunpredictablebecauseofourinabilitytocomprehendanythingbeyondourownintellectualcapability.Humanswouldbeantscomparedtooursuperiorcreationsinnotimeatall,andwewouldbeatitsmercy.
WithAIcurrentlyonthecuspofreality,wehavetwooptions.WecouldcontinuedevelopingAI,orwecouldputAIfundingonhold.Asmentionedpreviously,itwouldbenaïvetoassumethatsuspendingAIresearchwouldpreventitfromemerging.TheoutcomeofsuspendingAIwouldonlydelaytheinevitable.Infact,waitingcouldleadtoanevenworseoutcome.ThesafestapproachwouldbetodevelopAIslowlyandsafely,ratherthandelayituntilsomeonedrawntoitsunlimitedpowerhastilycreatesit.Aswithdevelopingmostnoveltechnology,safetyisespeciallyimportantforAIsinceithasthecapabilitytoovercomeus.
ArtificialIntelligence:OurInevitableDestruction?
DoestheFermiparadoximplythatourdestructionisyettocome,orhavewealreadymadeitthroughtheGreatFilterwhereallothercivilizationshaveperished?ItisfeasiblethatstrongAIcoulddestroyusasmanyscientistshavewarned,butitcouldalsobeourbestbettowardsreachingtheSingularitywithinahumanlifetime.TheSingularitywouldundoubtedlyleadtoaconstantbarrageofincrediblediscoveriesandremarkabletechnology,manyofwhichwouldbesofaraboveourcomprehensionthattheywouldappearlikemagictous.WhendevelopingAI,weshouldplanfortheworstbutkeepoursightsontheprizetokeepfromgettingdiscouraged.
IstheriskofAIworththereward?Thisquestionisimportant,yetunanswered.OnlytimewilltellifAIwillbecomethesaviorordestroyerofhumanity.Forthehumanracetohaveachanceatco-existingwithAI,itspotentialmustberespected,anditabsolutelymustbedevelopedcarefullywithfail-safes,killswitches,strictread-onlycode,andaneasily
accessiblepowersource.ThelastthingweneedisanunshackledpredatoryAIgonerampantthroughoutthegalaxy.Notonlycoulditdestroyhumanity,butwithitssuperioradvantages,allotherlifeaswell.Imagineanentirefleetofduplicatingmachinesconsumingresourcesobsessivelythroughouttheuniverse.Notaverypleasantthought.MaybeweshouldactuallyheedthewarningsfromscientistsaboutAI.
10)Conclusion
AccordingtotheDrakeequation,thereshouldbeobviousaliencivilizationdetectablefromEarth.Despite60yearsoflisteningbySETI,wehavefoundnothing.ThisunexpectedmysteryiscalledtheFermiparadox.Multiplehypothesesattempttoexplainwhythisparadoxexists,nonemorefrighteningthantheGreatFilter.However,sincewedonotseeevenasinglesignofextraterrestriallife,theremaybesomesortofbarrierpreventinglifefromclimbingtheKardashevscale.
WethenexploredtheideathatAIcouldbetheGreatFilterevent,causingoureventualextinctionbeforewegetthechancetospreadamongthestars.Orontheotherhand,itcouldactuallypreventourextinction!AIcouldbeourbestbettowardsbecomingimmortalasaspecies,andevenasindividualsbyuploadingourmindsintocomputers.AIwouldalsoleadtolimitlessotherincredibletechnologicalbreakthroughsinvirtuallyeveryscientificfield.Itwillalmostcertainlyariseeventually,soitisveryimportantthatitisassafeaspossiblewhenitdoes.ThefirstAIisthemostimportantbecauseofrecursiveself-improvement,whichisanexplosivecycleofAIimprovingitself,referredtoastheSingularity.Finally,Moore’slawsuggeststhatthepricewillrapidlydecrease,causingAItoultimatelycomepackagedwithmostelectronicconsumerproducts.Today,billionsofUSdollarsareannuallybeingputtowardsdevelopingAItechnologysafely.
Humansocietyisextremelyfragile.Ourinstinctistosurviveandflourish,butthisisonlypossibleifwespreadbeyondtheSolarSystem.Earthhasseennumerousmassextinctionevents,showingusthatwecannotputalloureggsinonebasket.Althoughasteroidscanberedirected,agammarayburstwouldbesuddenandunpredictable.AIcouldbethetickettoleavingtheSolarSystem,orthetickettoourextinction.Itcouldbeourgreatestaccomplishment,orourdownfall.Thereisnoin-between.
11)References&FurtherReading
Thefollowingareadditionalsourcesforreadersinterestedinmoreinformationaboutcertainsectionsofthisbook.
(1)<http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2008/03/seven-ways-to-control-galaxy-with-self.html>
(2)<http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2011/01/the-rare-earth-theory-logic-and-math-says-were-not-alone-in-universe.html>
(3)<http://cerncourier.com/cws/article/cern/59937>
(4)<http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html>
(5)<http://zidbits.com/2011/07/how-far-have-radio-signals-traveled-from-earth/>
(6)<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3306982/Dyson-sphere-megastructure-NOT-aliens-Study-rules-extraterrestrial-origin-admits-doesn-t-know-is.html>
(7)<http://mkaku.org/home/articles/the-physics-of-extraterrestrial-civilizations/>
(8)<http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/world-power-consumption.htm>
(9)<http://www.science20.com/adaptive_complexity/how_singlecell_organisms_evolve_multicellular_ones>
(10)<http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-has-human-brain-evolved/>
(11)<https://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~arihuang/academic/research/strongai3.html>
(12)<https://intelligence.org/2013/05/15/when-will-ai-be-created/>
(13)<https://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAI.pdf>
(14)<http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/page-56882-en.html>
(15)<http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/11/back-chessboard-and-future-human-race>
(16)<http://seekersway.com/the-world-in-2030-by-dr-michio-kaku-review/>
(17)<http://www.wired.com/brandlab/2015/04/rise-machines-future-lots-robots-jobs-humans/>
(18)<https://intelligence.org/singularitysummit/>
(19)<http://www.singularity2050.com/the_singularity/>
(20)<http://www.livescience.com/37499-immortality-by-2045-conference.html>
(21)<http://awesci.com/crocodiles-do-not-die/>