ai is a two-edged sword
TRANSCRIPT
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AI Is a Two-Edged
Sword@JerryMichalski TECHfluence Panel May 2017
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Since the First Computers
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Two PathsBiology Logic
If x Then y Except when z
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Two PathsBiology Logic
If x Then y Except when z
Neural Networks
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Two PathsBiology Logic
If x Then y Except when z
Expert SystemsNeural Networks
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Two Paths
Knowledge engineers + experts Explicit rules Mainstream in many areas Nice audit trail
Expert SystemsNeural Networks
“Learn” from big datasets Calculation intensive Sometimes amazing results No audit trail
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Two Paths
Knowledge engineers + experts Explicit rules Mainstream in many areas Nice audit trail
Expert SystemsNeural Networks
“Learn” from big datasets Calculation intensive Sometimes amazing results No audit trail
1969
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1987
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1987
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1987
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CIE
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2017
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201730 Years Later
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Machine Intelligence
Got better, too, but not as much
Expert SystemsDeep Learning
Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains
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Machine Intelligence
Got better, too, but not as much
Expert SystemsDeep Learning
Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains
Kevin Kelly: “Cognification”
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Machine Intelligence
Got better, too, but not as much
Expert SystemsDeep Learning
Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains
Artificial General Intelligence?
Kevin Kelly: “Cognification”
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Machine Intelligence
Got better, too, but not as much
Expert SystemsDeep Learning
Many “hidden layers” Huge datasets HW: CPUs to GPUs to TPUs Breakthrough performance Narrow domains
Superintelligence?Artificial General Intelligence?
Kevin Kelly: “Cognification”
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Our Future with AI
Utopia Dystopia
2017
Leisure
Abundance
Skynet
Westworld
WALL-E
Her
JetsonsElysium
The Circle Black Mirror
Efficiency
Singularity Singularity
• Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance
FALCFully Automated
Luxury Communism
2037
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Our Future with AI
Utopia Dystopia
2017
Leisure
Abundance
Skynet
Westworld
WALL-E
Her
JetsonsElysium
The Circle Black Mirror
Efficiency
Singularity Singularity
• Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance
• Jobs always appear! • AI won’t be so bad • Privacy is so 60s…
FALCFully Automated
Luxury Communism
2037
TheREXpedition.com
Our Future with AI
Utopia Dystopia
2017
Leisure
Abundance
Skynet
Westworld
WALL-E
Her
JetsonsElysium
The Circle Black Mirror
Efficiency
Singularity Singularity
• Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance
• Jobs always appear! • AI won’t be so bad • Privacy is so 60s…
FALCFully Automated
Luxury Communism
2037
TheREXpedition.com
Our Future with AI
Utopia Dystopia
2017
Leisure
Abundance
Skynet
Westworld
WALL-E
Her
JetsonsElysium
The Circle Black Mirror
Efficiency
Singularity Singularity
• Scarcity • No jobs • No meaning • Surveillance
• Jobs always appear! • AI won’t be so bad • Privacy is so 60s…
FALCFully Automated
Luxury Communism
2037
CMMC
PPPP??
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Consumer Mass-Market Capitalism• Many flavors of Capitalism
• Citizens ➡ Consumers
• Advertising = war
• Cruel US Social Contract
• Poverty = dismal trap
• Increasing income inequality
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$?Wall Street pressure
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$?Advertising!
Wall Street pressure
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Surveillance Capitalism
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Surveillance Capitalism
The Stalker Economy
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Minority Report: Ethan in the Mall
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Jobs at Risk• Driving (27%!)
• Retail
• Thinking: writing, legal
• Full-time work disappearing (gigs)
• The Precariat
• Tasks, not jobs
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Two-Curve Problem
Horse and Carriage
Automobiles
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Two-Curve Problem
Horse and Carriage
Automobiles
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Two-Curve Problem
Horse and Carriage
Automobiles
• Electrification • The Telegraph • The Internet • Smartphones
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Software Automation = Flesh-Eating Bacterium
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Humans vs. Software
• Get tired
• Get sick
• Ask for raises
• Get cranky
• Retire
• Doesn’t do any of those
• Keeps getting better
• Keeps getting cheaper
• Perfectly replicable
Humans Software
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No Second Curve?
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PPPP
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PPPPPale Patriarchal Penis People
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PPPP
Algorithm Culture
Pale Patriarchal Penis People
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PPPP
Efficiency
Algorithm Culture
Pale Patriarchal Penis People
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PPPP
Efficiency
Scale
Algorithm Culture
Pale Patriarchal Penis People
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PPPP
Efficiency
Scale
Profit
Algorithm Culture
Pale Patriarchal Penis People
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Key Levers:
• Hacking Capitalism (for the better)
• Waking up (and diversifying) tech’s architects
• Designing from trust
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Key Levers:
• Hacking Capitalism (for the better)
• Waking up (and diversifying) tech’s architects
• Designing from trust
Guaranteed Basic Income
TheREXpedition.com
Key Levers:
• Hacking Capitalism (for the better)
• Waking up (and diversifying) tech’s architects
• Designing from trust
Guaranteed Basic Income
TheREXpedition.com
For More Info
JerrysBrain.com
@JerryMichalski