Agriculture towards 2050

Preliminary estimates for irrigation

Jippe Hoogeveen, Jean-Marc Faurès, Karen Frenken (Water Unit)

Jelle Bruinsma, Gerold Boedeker, Nikos Alexandratos (Global Perspectives Unit)

About the study

• 142 countries • 35 crops• Interdisciplinary• No scenario-study (only base-line scenario)

The study presents FAO’s estimates of what will happen in the future. They are not the result of a

particular scenario nor do they represent a particularly ‘desirable’ future

Driving forces

Per capita food consumption

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Kca

l /

per

son

/ d

ay

World

Developing countries

Industrial countries

Transition countries

Population

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Mil

lio

ns

World

Developing countries

Industrial countries

Transition countries

Sources of growth in developing countries

(2005/07 – 2050)

Arable Land Expansion

21%

Cropping Intensity

10%

Yield increase

69%

Sources of growth in production

Yield gaps(wheat)

Harvested area increases 2005/07 – 2050

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

World(2005-07)

World(2050)

Developingcountries(2005-07)

Developingcountries

(2050)

Industrial +Transitioncountries(2005-07)

Industrial +Transitioncountries

(2050)

1000

ha.

Irrigated

Rainfed

Changes in irrigated land and accompanying

water withdrawals

Renewable water resources (cubic km)

Areas currently equipped for irrigation(Million ha)

Change in irrigated areas 2050

Irrigation water withdrawal 2005 / 07 (cubic km)

Change in water withdrawal 2050

Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2005 / 07

Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2050

World 43000 277 15% 2685 9% 6% 7%

Changes in irrigated land and accompanying

water withdrawals

Renewable water resources (cubic km)

Areas currently equipped for irrigation(Million ha)

Change in irrigated areas 2050

Irrigation water withdrawal 2005 / 07 (cubic km)

Change in water withdrawal 2050

Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2005 / 07

Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2050

World 43000 277 15% 2685 9% 6% 7%

Industrial countries 9000 44 1% 367 -18% 4% 3%

Transition countries 5000 24 1% 191 -18% 4% 3%

East Asia 8700 75 16% 714 9% 8% 9%

South Asia 1800 81 14% 819 10% 46% 50%

Near East / North Africa 600 29 19% 346 23% 58% 71%

sub Saharan Africa 4000 5 46% 60 52% 2% 2% Latin America 14000 19 41% 187 39% 1% 2%

Water balances changes due to Climate Change for the Near East and North

Africa

Standard situation

2050

Changes due to

Climate Change

Precipitation (mm) 179 1%

Renewable water resources (cubic km) 600 -5%

Irrigation water withdrawals(cubic km) 426 6%

Pressure on water resources due to irrigation 71% 11%

Thank you !

• http://www.fao.org/nr/water/

• http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm

• http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm