agricultural machinery market analysis...productivity, the market of agricultural machinery has...
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Agricultural Machinery Market
Analysis September 2018
A new era has been revolutionizing the field.
New technologies are accelerating the application
of robotics, artificial intelligence, stand-alone
machines and biotechnology.
It is the biggest revolution in the rural sector.
Foto: Case IH Magnum Case IH Autonomous
Concept Tractor
3
Countries with greatest area available for agriculture(million hectares - referring to the 2012/13 harvest)
86
170
37
108
Brazil
United States
of America
Argentina
46
47
261
53
Australia
8
171
India
45
112
China
93
124 Russia
Utilized Area
Available Area
Source: USDA. Elaboration: TCP Latam. Note: Data referring to the 2012/13 harvest
Brazil is the country with the greatest area
available, 261 million hectares that can be used
for agribusiness. Aggregated to all other continental
areas, there are ~315 million hectares. In other
words, only Brazil represents 45% of the total of
576 million hectares.
4
Giant Brazil:
The potential of the Brazilian Agricultural Machinery
Market
Hectares Agricultural Machinery Fleet
(2017) (2017)
80,000,000 969,000
(Available) (Potential)
234,000,000 2,834,324
Considering the same proportion between the current amount of
utilized hectares and the existing agricultural machinery fleet,
a fleet of ~2.8 million agricultural machines for the available 234
million hectares would be needed.
Source: USDA. Elaboration: TCP Latam
5
BA
MA
PI
TO
The ¨MATOPIBA¨ region - The new barn of the world
Piauí
Agricultural
harvest (in million tons)
1.48
4.24
2007/08
2017/18p
Tocantins
Agricultural harvest (in million tons)
1.67
4.67
2007/08
2017/18p
Bahia
Agricultural harvest (in million tons)
6.08
8.8
2007/08
2017/18p
Maranhão
Agricultural
harvest (in million tons)
2.52
5.51
2007/08
2017/18p
23.22 million tons is equivalent to
the agricultural
production of the
¨MATOPIBA¨ region
in 2016/17
Source: Conab. Elaboration: TCP Latam
Migratory
route to the
¨MATOPIBA¨
region
6
Economic & Sector Research Team
• Partner of TCP Latam;
• Expert on the 13 most important sectors in the Brazilian
Economy;
• Chief Economist reporting to the Board of Sindipeças,
constituted of over 500 domestic and foreign automotive
parts companies;
• Worked at Moody's and Link Corretora;
• Experience in the development of economic analysis, M&A
transactions, turnarounds, corporate governance and
advisory to the Management Board;
• Graduated in Economics from PUC-SP/Brazil and
Production Engineering from Univest-SP/Brazil (currently
studying). Specialization in Econometrics/FIPE,
Macroeconomics Cepal/ONU, Valuation/Saint Paul,
Turnaround/FGV and Leadership for Young Talents/FGV.
Ricardo Jacomassi
• TCP Latam Analyst;
• Economic Research (macro and micro);
• Active in Administrative/Financial and
Controller sectors focusing on financial
planning;
• Experience in Public Relations and
Commercial Department Team Motivation;
• Graduating in Economics from PUC -
SP/Brazil.
Nathielle Trevisol
7
Introduction
The tractor “pulls” the Brazilian economy!
The agricultural sector represents the largest production chain of the Brazilian economy, being a
great consumer of inputs and capital goods, like agricultural machinery. In this sectorial study,
TCP Latam´s Economics Team innovates by developing indicators that show the extent of the
sector for the competitiveness of the Brazilian agribusiness
The report´s storyline starts with the Brazilian agricultural harvest that, during 2000-2017,
presented an Annual Average Growth (CAGR) of 5.21%. Approximately 238 million tons of grain
were produced in the 2016/17 harvest, presenting an increase of 27% compared with the
previous harvest. The main drivers of this growth were the cultivation of maize, bean, sunflower
and sorghum. Never before in history has been seen a growth of this magnitude. For the
2018/19 harvest, 226 million tons are expected, despite a 6% drop compared to the previous
years, it is still the second largest in history.
Agricultural Machinery: From torque to the new technologies
Due to the expansion of the farming sector and the need for renewal of the fleet to maintain the
productivity, the market of agricultural machinery has returned to production and internal
consumption growth. TCP Latam´s forecast is that combine harvester´s and tractor´s sales will
be growing until 2020, at an average annual rate of 5.8%. In 2017 approximately 37.3 thousand
tractors and 5.3 thousand combine harvesters were sold; in the 2018´s forecast the totals are:
38.9 thousand and 5.8 thousand, respectively. In 2017, revenues closed at $13.3 billion, na
increase of 11% compared to the previous year.
8
Introduction
Data developed by the TCP Latam´s economics team, calculated on the basis of the 2017´s agricultural
production (238 million tons of grain) and the total sales of machinery, has shown that 5,769 tons of grain
were produced by each agricultural machine, a reduction of 6% in relation to 2016. Comparing the
Brazilian fleet of agricultural tractors, there are 233 tons for each tractor running. See the historical
series: page 13.
Through the correlation matrix (page 14), elaborated by TCP Latam, it was possible to identify the
correspondence between the drivers that affect the agricultural machinery sector. By reading, it is
possible to observe that the rural credit (resources available for financing of costs, commercialization and
agricultural industrialization) presents a correlation of 76% with the machine sales. Regarding the planted
area and the agricultural GDP, the correlation with the machine sales is of 77% and 60%, respectively.
Rural Credit and Planted Area: The perfect correlations for the machine sales
In 2017, R$23 billion of the rural credit were directed to the investment programs in the agricultural sector.
Out of this amount, 40% was made available for the ¨Moderfrota¨, the modernization program of the
agricultural tractor´s fleet, Associated Implements and Combine Harvesters.
The other 60% is divided in programs like: Pronamp, Procap-Agro, ABC, among others. According to the
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the cultivated area in the harvest of 2016/17 was of
approximately 80 million hectares and presented a ~6% increase compared to the previous one. For the
2018/19´s harvest, practically the same area is expected. The new agricultural frontiers, like ¨MATOPIBA¨
and the ones of the Central West region should continuously increase the total of the planted area in the
next 20 years.
9
Introduction
MATOPIBA: A new agricultural frontier that will feed the world
The diversity of the Brazilian biomes can be considered a natural hedge for the agribusiness,
just by the non-uniformity of the climate. The three great grain producing regions (South,
Central West and ¨MATOPIBA¨), present private water regimes that require non-linear
productive and commercial strategies. Since the 80/90´s, the ¨MATOPIBA¨ region (Maranhão,
Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) has been outstanding as the new production frontier. In the first half
of 2018, TCP Latam visited the region and found the accelerated process of expansion of the
regional economy, that produced 22.2 million tons of grain.
Tends
The agricultural machinery sector has been gradually incorporating the main technological
innovations, in particular the stand-alone machines with high operational capacity. After having
spoken with companies of the productive chain, we have selected the main trends:
o Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the planted area at 2.2% (2012-2017);
o Intensification of the factory automation;
o Incorporation of the robotics in crop production;
o Professionalization of family businesses that produce components for agricultural machines,
dealers and rural producers;
o More efficient motors in terms of consumption and with greenhouse gas emission reductions.
10
Introduction
Challenges
In the last five years, the sector faced challenges related to the decrease of consumption,
motivated by the reduction in credit and climate impacts. Many dealers became highly
leveraged, mostly, due to the default of the farmers. The Economics team has spoken with the
main actors in the chain and identified the current challenges:
Assemblers:
o Financial weakness of the supply chain of components and dealers;
o High investments in new technologies;
o Idleness.
Manufacturers of Parts:
o Difficulty in passing the prices of raw material;
o Scarcity of credit;
o Idleness;
o High investments for the technological update of the companies Tiers 2 and 3.
Concessionaires:
o High interest rates of the working capital;
o High indebtedness;
o Default of farmers;
o Inefficient and non-professional management.
11
Introduction
Opportunities
After TCP Latam having met with companies (Assemblers, Distributors, Dealers and
Manufacturers of components), the following opportunities for the sector were identified:
o Mergers and Acquisitions;
o Export to Latin American countries;
o Alliances for the development of new technologies;
o Automation of operational processes;
o Expansion of the private financing lines, throughout new actors like ¨Sicredi¨;
o Fleet-sharing systems.
The TCP Latam´s Economics Team makes itself available to clarify doubts and detailinformation.
Enjoy your reading.
12
Challenges of the Agricultural Machinery Production Chain
AssemblerAutomotive
Components
Industry
Dealer FarmerRaw Material
Supplier
• Currency Volatility
• Indebtedness
• Idleness
• Protectionism
• Onlending of raw
material prices
• Scarcity of credit
• Indebtedness
• Low technological
update of the
¨Tiers 2 and 3¨
• Financial Fragility
of manufacturers
of components
and dealers
• Investments in
new technologies
• Idleness
• Working Capital
• Indebtedness
• Default by the
farmers
• Inefficient
Management
• Currency Volatility
• Indebtedness
• Low Professionalization
• Inefficient Management
• Slow Technological
Update
Elaboration: TCP Latam
13
Great Figures of the Agricultural Machinery Sector
Production
(x1000)
Source: ANFAVEA
55.9 54.0 53.0
2015 2016 2017
Tractor Fleet
(x1000)
Source: TCP Latam
950969
989
2016 2017 2018e
Exports
(US$ billion)
1.70 1.78
3.02
2015 2016 2017
Domestic Sales
(x1000)
Source: ANFAVEA
45.7 43.7
42.4
2015 2016 2017
Employment
(thousand people)
15.4
16.8
18.4
2015 2016 2017
Sector´s Companies
7
160
1248
Assembler
Supplier
Dealer
Source: ANFAVEA,
FenabraveSource: ANFAVEASource: ANFAVEA
Sector Income
(x1000)
Source: TCP Latam
12.013.3
14.0
2016 2017 2018p
14
Production Cost of the Agricultural Machinery Sector
16’
17’ +12%
18’ +23%
Source: TCP Latam
Research
Average
Salaries
15’ R$ 3,463.56
16’ R$ 3,482.75
17’ R$ 3,691.72
Source: RAIS;
Estimation: TCP
Latam
Energy Price
16’ R$ 392.94
17’ R$ 397.00
18’* R$ 408.27
Source: ANEEL
*average for the
period
Average
Component
Price
16’ +1.0%
17’ +6.7%
18’ +6.5%Source: TCP
Latam´s Estimation
Even with the Economic
Crisis, the manufacturers of
agricultural machinery have
had price adjustments of the
main production costs. The
steel price for assemblers has
suffered a readjustment of
approximately 23% in 2018.
The salaries had a growth of
6% in 2017, while the average
industrial energy price has
increased by 2.8% in 2018.
The addition to the average
components price for 2018 is
about 6.5%.
Movements in the
Steel Price for
Assemblersno readjustment
15Elaboration: IBGE, Central Bank of Brazil, MAPA. Elaboration: TCP Latam
Heart of the TCP Latam´s Analysis: Correlation matrix
between the main drivers of the sector
Through the correlation matrix (see below), elaborated by TCP Latam, it was possible
to identify the correspondence between the drivers that affect the agricultural machinery
sector. It can be observed that the rural credit (resources available for financing of
costs, commercialization and agricultural industrialization) presents a correlation of
76% with the machine sales. Regarding the planted area and the agricultural GDP, the
correlation with the machine sales is of 77% e 60%, respectively.
Correlation MatrixAgricultural
Machinery SalesRural Credit
Agricultural Production
Planted Area Agricultural GDP
Agricultural Machinery Sales
100% 76% 29% 77% 60%
Rural Credit 76% 100% -16% 45% 20%
Agricultural Production
29% -16% 100% 51% 64%
Planted Area 77% 45% 51% 100% 96%
Agricultural GDP 60% 20% 64% 96% 100%
16
Income of the agricultural machinery and implements`´ sector
3.6
4.9
7.0
8.4
5.2 5.2
6.8
9.7
7.0
8.7
11.7
13.2
15.3
11.2 11.412.0
13.314.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p
Real Income (in bi R$)Source: Abimaq. Elaboration: TCP Latam. p=TCP Latam´s forecast
Note: Values referring to the real income of machines and implements for agriculture
Start of
the ISP
End of
the ISP
The income of the sector is expected to grow by
5.1% in 2018, influenced by the increase of the
sales of new machines and also by the high
prices of the new machineries, which in turn
reflect the high cost of steel production,
energy and imported components.
17
Tractor and Combine Harvester Sales Forecast
R² = 0,9172
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019p 2020p
Wheeled Tractor and Conveyer Sales (in thousands)
Source: Anfavea. Forecast: TCP Latam
R² = 0,8429
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019p 2020p
Combine Harvester Sales(in thousands)
Based on the analysis of the correlation
matrix, it has been possible to estimate a
growth of the sales potential of 6.2k and
6.9k for combine harvesters in 19’ and 20’
For wheeled tractors, the correlation
matrix point to a growth of the sales
potential of 41.7k and 46k in 19’ and 20’
9.9
7.4
4.6
5.4 5.35.8
5.2
6.9
66.0
56.4
37.836.3 37.3 38.9
41.7
46.0
18
The Dynamics of the Agricultural Machinery Market
2,180
1,637
428 440
115 171
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Imports
16,913 15,922
13,958
10,182 9,598
13,959
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Anfavea. Elaboration: TCP Latam
Exports
100
75
20 20
58
100
94
83
6057
83
100
122
100
6765 66
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Agricultural Machinery Market2012=100
Import
Export
Production
Applying the basis=100 to the production
and foreign trade variables, it is possible
to identify that the exports have become
strategic for the assemblers based in
Brazil.
19Source: Conab; Anfavea. Elaboration: TCP Latam
Relation between: Tons of grain / Total of internal
agricultural machinery sales
In 2017, the amount of
internal sales of
agricultural machinery in
Brazil, totalized 44,549
machines, whereas the
agricultural production
reached 237.7 million
tons of grain. That
means that by each
machine sold, 5,094
tons of grain were
produced. Considering
the tractor fleet (969
thousand in 2017), by
each agricultural tractor
233 tons of grain were
produced.
2,690 2,294
2,986
4,083
5,439 5,094
R² = 0,7041
210 204 217 195
250 233
R² = 0,2775
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tons of grain/ Fleet of agricultural tractors
Tons of grain/ Agricultural machinery sales
1 agricultural machine=
5,094 tons of grain
20Source: Anfavea. Elaboration: TCP Latam
3.8%
5.3%5.5%
6.8%
6.2% 6.3%
7.0%
5.9%
4.0% 3.8% 3.8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Renewal fee of the tractor fleet: Main driver for the
parts replacement market
The Renewal Fee of Agricultural Machinery has decreased since 2013, when it reached its peak of
7%, result of the PSI stimuli. In 2017, the renewal fee of the fleet was of 3.8%. According to the TCP
Latam´s study, the natural renewal fee of the sector is of ~5.3%, which means ~52 thousand machines
sold per year. This indicator is important for the companies that act in the parts replacement market.
With the reduction in sales of new machines, there is a circulating agricultural fleet that consumes many
spare parts. The margins of those parts are generous but require prompt delivery and implementation
services from the companies. TCP´s interpretation is that this market will have a sequential growth in
the next years.
Average: 5.3%
21
Evolution of the Rural Credit
Source: MAPA. Elaboration: TCP Latam
49.154.8
66.2
75.680.2
87.0
97.6
112.0
149.5 151.0 150.3
8.9 10.214.0
18.0
27.0 28.3
38.444.1
38.234.0
38.2
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Defrayal and Commercialization
InvestmentCompound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR):
• Defrayal and Commercialization: 11.8%
• Investment: 15.7%
Between the 2007/08 and 2017/18 harvests, the
resources directed to the agricultural harvest
were relevant and led to an annual average
growth (CAGR) of 11.8%, regarding the defrayal
and commercialization, however, it is worth noting
that the investment rates were of 15.7%.
22
Composition of the Rural Credit (2017)
Others
Moderfrota: Modernization Program of the
Agricultural Tractor Fleet and Associated Implements
and Combine Harvesters
PCA: Program for the Construction and Expansion of
Warehouses
ABC: Greenhouse Gas Reduction Program
Procap-Agro: Capitalization Program of Agricultural
Cooperatives
Pronamp: Medium Scale Agricultural Producer
Support Program
Funding Programs
Source: MAPA. Elaboration: TCP Latam
40%
18%
16%
10%
9%
7%
60%
40%
Funding ProgramsCredit Lines
Resources of the rural credit
directed to investments
The gigantic Brazilian harvest
requires high technology,
sophisticated logistics,
advanced input and the best
management practices.
Check the data:
24
Brazilian Grain Harvest
(in million tons)
Source: Conab. Forecast:: TCP Latam
100 97
123 119 115123
132
144135
149
163 166
189194
208
187
238
226
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
20
14
/15
20
15
/16
20
16
/17
20
17
/18
p
The Agricultural Harvest
presented an annual average
growth (CAGR) of 5.21% in the
period of 2000-17
25
Brazilian Grain Harvest
81%
64%
47%
35%
27%
20%
19%
16%
15%
-5%
-11%
-21%
-23%
-25%
-37%
-43%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Sorghum
Sunflower
Maize - total
Beans - total
Total
Soy
Seed cotton
Rice
Peanut - total
Rye
Castor Bean
Triticale
Oat
Barley
Wheat
Canola
Approximately 238 million tons
of grain were produced in the
2016/17 harvest. This means a
variation of 27% compared to
the previous harvest.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (var % 2017/2016)
Source: CONAB. Elaboration: TCP Latam
26
Growth Rate of the Agricultural Harvest (2017/2016)
0% - 20%
21% - 50%
>50%
<0%
Rye
Triticale
Castor Bean
Oat
Barley
Wheat
Canola
Soy
Cotton
Rice
Peanut
Maize
Beans
Sunflower
Sorghum
In 2017 the
Agricultural
Production
increased by 27%
compared to the
previous harvest.
The crops that
contributed most to
this positive result
were mainly: Soy,
maize, cotton.
Source: CONAB. Elaboration: TCP Latam
27
44%
22%
17%
13%
12%
10%
9%
8%
4%
2%
1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-10%
-12%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Rye
Sunflower
Oat
Barley
Bean - total
Maize - total
Sorghum
Peanut - total
Total
Soy
Canola
Rice
Cotton
Triticale
Wheat
Castor Bean
Cultivated Area of the Brazilian Harvest
In the 2016/2017 harvest, the
cultivated area was of
approximately 80 million
hectares, which means an
increase of ~6% compared to
the previous year.
CULTIVATED LAND (var % 2017/2016)
Source: CONAB. Elaboration: TCP Latam
28
In the 2016/2017
harvest, the
crops that most
occupied field
were: Soy, maize
and cotton. Rye
and sunflower
presented an
increase of 20%
compared to the
previous harvest.
0% - 10%
11% - 20%
>20%
<0%
Triticale
Castor Bean
Rice
Cotton
Wheat
Soy
Maize
CanolaPeanut
Sorghum
Oat
BarleyBean
Rye
Sunflower
Growth Rate of the Planted Area (2016/2017)
Source: CONAB. Elaboration: TCP Latam
29
Recent Mergers and
Acquisitions of the
Agricultural Machinery
Market
30
Operations of mergers and acquisitions
Date Buyer Buyer Country Target Target CountryValue
R$ MM
%
AcquiredSinopse
jun-18 BrazilVamos Leasing of Trucks,
Machinery and EquipmentBrazil 68.12 9.00%
Brazil-based JSL [BVMF:JSLG3], an integrated logistics solutions provider, has
acquired the total shares issued by Vamos Locação de Caminhões, Máquinas
e Equipamentos held by Borgato Máquinas, Borgato Serviços Agrícolas, and
Borgato Caminhões, representing approximately 9% of the company's total
share capital. The deal value is BRL 68m. The Sellers will also receive
3,202,374 shares issued by Movida Participações [BVMF:MOVI3] held by JSL
and 3,037,500 shares to be issued by JSL through the incorporation of a non-
operating company to be constituted by the sellers. The transaction is part of
JSL's acquisition of the Borgato group for BRL 100m (see related transaction).
With the operation, JSL will hold 100% of Vamos.
oct-17 Brazil Brazil 100.00 100.00%
JSL [BVMF:JSLG3], an integrated logistics solutions provider, has completed
the acquisition of the companies Borgato Maquinas, Borgato Serviços
Agricolas, and Borgato Caminhões. The deal value was BRL 100m in cash,
plus 9% stake in JSL Locação de Máquinas e Veículos Pesados. Borgato
Group was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Ribeirão Preto, state of
São Paulo. It operates in the segment of leasing and marketing of heavy
trucks, machinery and equipment for the agricultural sector. Borgato
companies also have 18 stores, among truck and machinery dealers, located in
the states of São Paulo, Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais. In 2016, the
companies presented combined net sales of BRL 186m.
jun-14 Acionistas Particulares I - Brazil 3.34 75.00%
Agrometal, an Argentina-based manufacturer of precision sowing agricultural
machinery, acquired a 75% stake in Fankhauser to Brazilian entrepreneur
Pedro Augusto Fankhauser. The deal value was USD 1.5m. With this deal
Pedro Augusto will attain 100% of the capital, since he already holds 25%.
Fankhauser, based in Tuparendi (Brazil), is a distributor of tractors and
agricultural equipment. This deal is part of Agrometal's impossibility of freeing
Fankhauser from its financial dificulties.
aug-12 Brazil Brazil 0.02 4.17%
Imasa held a public tender offer for the acquisition of all outstanding shares in
the market of its subsidiary Fuchs, for subsequent cancellation of the publicly-
held company. The outstanding shares in the market correspond to 4.17% of
the share capital of Fuchs. The price per share will be BRL 3.43, allowing the
value of the transaction to reach BRL 18,500. Fuchs, which manufactures
agricultural machinery, posted a revenue of BRL 23.84m and a loss of BRL
2.4m in 2011.
31
Operations of mergers and acquisitions
Data CompradorPaís
CompradorVendedor País Vendedor
Valor
R$ MM
%
AdquiridoDescrição
oct-12
A.T.Q.S.P.E.
Brazil Brazil - 50.00%
A.T.Q.S.P.E. and Tractorcomponents acquired a 50% stake in Pedertractor, a
Brazilian company dedicated to the production and sale of tractors and parts
for agricultural machinery. The value of the operation was not disclosed.
jun-12 United States Brazil - 100.00%
IES International Equipment Solutions, which is controlled by private equity
firm KPS Capital Partners, acquired the entire capital stock of SIAC do Brasil, a
subsidiary of Italy's SIAC. The transaction's financial details were kept
confidential. According to Steve Andrews, the company's chief executive, this
acquisition represents an important step in the company's globalization
strategy as well as giving access to an important market that is expanding.
SIAC do Brasil is one of the main Brazilian manufacturers of cabins for
locomotives and agricultural machinery.
jul-11 BrasilPermission to resell and
distribute productsBrasil - 100.00%
BSPAR - BSBIOS Participações acquired the right to resell and distribute John
Deere Brasil products. The value of the transaction was not disclosed. John
Deere Brasil is a company dedicated to the manufacture of agricultural
machinery and implements, construction equipment and forestry machines.
John Deere's resale concession areas are located in the regions of Erechim,
Carazinho and Espumoso, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
dec-97 United StatesIochpe-Maxion
Agricultural Equipment
Division
Brazil - 100.00%
AGCO, an agricultural machinery manufacturer, acquired the agricultural
equipment division of Iochpe-Maxion in Brazil. The deal value was USD 260m.
Iochpe-Maxion is dedicated to the tractors segment with Massey Ferguson
brand.
32
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