agricultural innovation—the united states and the developing … · 2016-02-26 · philip g....
TRANSCRIPT
Philip G. Pardey University of Minnesota
USDA 92nd Outlook Forum, Transforming Agriculture
Session: Applying USDA Technological Achievements to Global Agricultural Challenges
February 26, 2016 Marriott Hotel, Arlington
Agricultural Innovation—The United Statesand the Developing World
Outline
Persistence Pays! – R&D and Adoption Lags
Changing Food and Agricultural R&D Realities Worldwide
U.S. Agricultural Innovations in a Global Context
• The Case of Wheat Rusts
From Innovation Investment to Adoption and Impact
R&D Investments
Farm Productivity Growth
Source: Alston, Anderson, James and Pardey (2010, 2011)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
1 11 21 31 41 51 Year
Lag Weights
Illustrative Technology Timelines (US)
Source: Pardey , Alston and Ruttan (2008) and Alston et al. (2010)
1877Beal conducts first controlled crosses/hybrid vigor
1905‐1912Shull developed correct understanding of inbreeding and cross breeding
1917 James developed double cross‐hybrid
1922Iowa State station began corn in‐breeding program
1933First commercial planting of Hybrid Iowa 939 developed by Merle Jenkins
1936First release of a widely popular double‐cross hybrid developed at Purdue University
1960Vastly improved in‐breds led to shift to single‐cross hybrids
1960 95 percent of U.S. corn acreage in hybrids
Hybrid Corn
1901Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) discovered in Japan (and 1911 in Germany)
1950s Bt used as a control agent and registered
1986 Cry1Ab gene sequence published
1986Cry1Ab cloned into root colonyzing Pseudomonas bacteria
1992YieldGard insect protected corn event Mon810 produced by "gene gun"
1996FDA, USDA & EPA approvals for Yield Guard
1997Bt corn (corn borer protection) commercialized in U.S.
1998Stacked with other traits (e.g. herbicide tolerance)
2004U.S. patent issued to Monsanto for Mon810
2008 Regulatory approval in 20 countries
Bt Corn
1970 Glyphosphate shown to have herbicidal activity
1976 Roundup herbicide commercialized in U.S.
1980 Idnetification of 3 mechanisms to infer glyphosphate tolerance
Late 1980s Several genes encoding glyphospate insensitivity isolated
1987 First soybean transformation achieved
1990 & 91 Glyphosphate tolerant seeds evaluated
1996 Roundup Ready Soybeans commercialized
Roundup Ready Soybean
59 years 96 years 26 years
U.S. Maize Technology Adoption Lags
Source: Beddow (2012)
0
20
40
60
80
10019
30
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Percen
tage of U
.S. M
aize Acres
Hybrid Maize
Nitrogen
Nitrogen (rate, index)
Herbicide
Irrigation
18 years 17 years
20 years
13 years
30 years
12 years
Corn Movement in the U.S., 1899‐2007
Share of Corn Output by County, 1899
Share of Corn Output by County, 2007
Source: Beddow and Pardey (2015)
Moving Matters
279 kilometers north342 kilometers west
16 to 21 percent of corn output growth
Moving Matters
279 kilometers north342 kilometers west
16 to 21 percent of corn output growth
Shifting GroundThe Global Food and Agricultural R&D Landscape
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
billion
2009 PP
P$
Total public and private
Private
Public
Global Public and Private Food & Agricultural R&D, 1960‐2011
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2016, in process)
$69.2 b
55.1%
44.9%
0
20
40
60
80
1960 1980 2011
percen
t
Total Public
USAGermanyBrazilUKChinaSouth AfricaIndiaCanadaJapanAustralia
Spatial Concentration ‐‐ Top 10 Country Share and Rank
China
USAIndiaJapanBrazilGermanyFranceCanadaItalyKorea
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
percen
t
United States
Shifting Global Shares of Public Food & Ag R&D, 1960‐2011
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2016, in process)
11.5%
20.2%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
percen
t
United States
Western Europe
Shifting Global Shares of Public Food & Ag R&D, 1960‐2011
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2016, in process)
11.5%
18.5%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
percen
t
Brazil, India and China
United States
Western Europe
Shifting Global Shares of Public Food & Ag R&D, 1960‐2011
Source: Pardey, Chan‐Kang, Beddow and Dehmer (2016, in process)
11.5%
27.1%
Agricultural R&D, Innovation and Adoption
Sustainable Productivity Performance
Economic challenges • Comparative advantage and international competiveness
Environmental challenges and changes• Climate (drought, heat stress, water logging etc)• Crop pest and diseases
Stem Rust Stripe Rust Leaf Rust
Productivity Maintenance – The Case of Wheat Rusts
Running hard to stand still!
Stem Rust
The Spread of Ug99 Stem Rust
Now 13 known variants spread across 13 countries
USDA Cereal Disease Lab
Doing Good by Doing Well
US Wheat Rust Research in a Global Setting
Stem Rust Climate Suitability
Persistently vulnerableSeasonally vulnerable
Stripe Rust Climate Suitability
Persistently vulnerableSeasonally vulnerable
Leaf Rust Climate Suitability
Persistently vulnerableSeasonally vulnerable
Note: Suitability prediction based on growth index (GI) values from the CLIMEX model
Three Rusts—Seasonally Vulnerable
Two rust typesThree rust types
One rust type
Vulnerability to Wheat Rusts Worldwide
Stem, Leaf and Stripe Rust Vulnerability
None Only One Only Two All Three(Percentage of output, all farms)
Western Europe 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.2
North America 2.2 12.5 37.1 48.3
Australia 0.0 10.3 17.8 71.9
Sub‐Saharan Africa 11.0 3.6 13.9 71.6
China 0.0 0.0 11.5 88.5
India 6.3 18.8 72.5 2.5
World 3.2 6.9 27.1 62.7
Concluding Remarks
U.S. losing considerable global market share in terms of (public) R&D spending
R&D likely to remain highly spatially concentrated
• A growing disconnect between the geography of agricultural demand and the location of agricultural R&D performance
Shift towards more contestable and project‐oriented (often shorter‐term) funding of public science
• The problems are just as hard as they ever have been
• The present returns are just as high (pointing to persistent underinvestment)
Requires political will to think long term and reinvest and revitalize agricultural R&D in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world (especially among the poorer countries)
Thanks!
www.harvestchoice.orgwww.instepp.umn.edu