Kamel Louhichi, Sergio Gomez y Paloma, Pascal Tillie and Laura Riesgo

Agri-Food Policy Impact on Farm-Household Food Security in Sub-

Saharan Africa

- FNS event, 14 June 2016, Brussels -

European Commission, Joint Research Centre

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)

AGRILIFE unit

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Need for ex-ante policy impact analysis of Partner Countries sectorial measures, as well as EU development and cooperation policies on food security and rural poverty alleviation, especially in Sub Saharan Africa.

JRC has developed simulation tools that can, in a transparent, rigorous and repeatable fashion, make policies economic-impacts quantifiable.

Focusing on the food and agricultural sector JRC has undertaken major economic modelling exercises aiming to estimate the economic impacts of EU/Partner Countries programmes using, among others, micro (farm-household level) modelling tools.

Motivation

Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion

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Develop a farm household model (FSSIM-Dev) to be used in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to: Improve knowledge on food security and poverty alleviation in rural areas.Analyse key features of different farming systems, focusing mainly on (semi)subsistence farms.Assess the potential impacts of:

• national and EU cooperation policies (i.e. input subsidies, price and income policies, public investments, etc.)

• High/low/volatile food prices • Alternative cropping systems/technologies On farm productivity, production, income, poverty level,

etc. (average, distribution, winners, losers)Compare impacts of selected policies in different SSA countries

Aims – Micro level analysis

Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion

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Aims (cont.)

Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion

Support to EU Delegations and Partner Countries (PC) policy makers in the design of measures / programmes / projects

Offer PC public bodies (Ministries, Research Centres) technical support to design and ex-ante assess the potential effects of selected agricultural and food security oriented policies

Train PC users (policy makers, researchers, etc.) in the use of modelling tools (i.e. capacity building).

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Motivation Modelling Simulation Conclusion Country: Policy to be analysed (years & data

to be used)Ethiopia: impacts of improved seeds and fertilizer combined provision (2016 – AgSS and LSMS-ISA data)

Rwanda: analysis of Land Use Consolidation Program (2018 – Survey conducted by EU Del. & Gov. of Rwanda)Tanzania: effects of "flagship initiative" Big Results Now (2016 - LSMS-ISA data)Niger: impacts of Small

Irrigation program (2015 – LSMS-ISA data)

Ivory Coast: impacts of animal traction on cotton farming systems (2014-15 – own data collection)

Sierra Leone: impacts of providing high quality rice seeds (finished – own data collection)

Senegal: impacts of fertiliser subsidy program (tbc)

A L I M E N T A T I O N A G R I C U L T U R E

E N V I R O N N E M E N T

AgFoodTradeParis – 30 avril 2010