agri commodity reports for the week (6th - 10th december - 2010)

8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (6th - 10th December - 2010)

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WEEKLYREPORTS

Global Research Limited

Where Market Can MoveNext Week...

A G R I

Spices Trades upon Extended Buying!

| 06th Dec - 11th Dec. 2010



AGRI

Weekly Reports

w w w . c a p i t a l v i a . c o m

A g r i R e p o r t

2

Technical Analysis

JEERA

Fundamental Overview

Reasons for MovementJEERA TUMBLES ON PROFIT BOOKING

he Jeera futures staged a rally in prices last week. Futures

opened on marginally positive note on short covering. Prices

Tremained range bound during the starting days of the week and

also took small corrections. However, prices reversed back in the

direction on fresh buying. Prices traded higher for rest of the days. The

Jeera futures are projected to extend upside movement for next week.

Continued buying at futures platform is likely to support the price.

Stable demand at spot market and reports of slow sowing progress

may further add to the upside. However, profit booking at higher levels

cannot be overruled. As per data released by Spices Board, Jeera

export target for year 2010-11 is around 40,000 tons up by 11,000 tons

from last year's target. Average daily prices at spot market of Unjha

were 13,500 per quintal on good demand. Arrivals reported were

around 3000-4000 bags (each bag= 60 Kg.). As per Spices Board

data, international price of Jeera in New York market was $3.53 per kg

during the week ended 19th November 2010 against $2.93 per kg

quoted in the same period last year.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 16068

R2 15268R1 14921

PP 14468

S1 14121

S2 13668

S3 12868 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Stable demand at spot marketSlow sowing progress

Jeera was in consolidation for mostpart of the week but we saw some

good buying coming at lower levelsat the end of the week. For the nextweek Jeera has resistance at 15540and support at 14000.

Market Overview

Jeera is in a consolidation phaseand one should use the strategy of

selling on higher levels. If in thecoming week Jeera sustains belowthe level of 14000 then we canexpect a level of 13700, and if itsustains above 15540 we can seethe level of 15915.

Strategy

6th - 11th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

GUARSEED

3

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementGUAR TUMBLES ON PROFIT BOOKING

fter making a high of Rs. 2503 per qtl in the last week, Guar futures

are moving southwards due to profit booking and arrival pressure of

Afresh crop. Exports of Guar and its by product which stood at around

2.10 lakh tonnes during the previous year is expected to rise in the current

fiscal to around 2.5-2.6 lakh tonnes. According to the survey, a reviving

world economy and a preference shift to eco-friendly substitutes has seen

a surge in demand for Indian Guar seed from oil and gas companies that

could push exports up 22 percent in 2010/11. Spread between December

and January contract is Rs.41 In the short term (1-2 week), Prices are

expected to move southwards on arrival pressure of fresh crop and poor

export demand of Guar seed at these levels. In the medium term trend

would depend on the pace of arrivals, the demand from the overseas

markets and the movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2756

R2 2589

R1 2508

PP 2422

S1 2341

S2 2255

S3 2088 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Fresh arrivalsPoor export demand

As we mentioned last week Guarseed did broke the important supportof 2580 and did our target of 2350 butwas not able to sustain at lower leveland we saw good short covering atthe end of week. For the next weekresistance in Guar seed is found at2565 and support at 2285.

Market Overview

For next week in Guar seed tradersshould go for buying at lower levelsstrategy, if Guar seed sustainsabove the level of 2565 we can seethe level of 2600, and below 2330 itcan touch the level of 2285.

Strategy

6th - 11th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

SOYABEAN

4

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementSOYBEAN RISES ON OVERSEAS MARKET

CDEX January Soybean futures ended the week in green,tracking firm overseas market. Spread between NCDEX

NDecember and January contract is Rs 64.50 For next week,

soybean prices are expected to trade slightly higher on account of firmtracking international prices. In the long term, prices are expected tomove northward due to bullish USDA's monthly supply and demandreport as USDA unexpectedly lowered its yield estimate for the 2010/11US soybean crop and lowered ending stocks of US soybean due tostrong export demand, lower yield and better export figures ofdomestic soy meal in the month of October are also in favour of thebulls.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2367

R2 2311

R1 2285

PP 2255

S1 2229

S2 2199

S3 2143 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Better export figuresLower yield

Last week Soybean was inconsolidation for most part of theweek but it was not able to sustain athigher levels. For the next weekSoybean has resistance at 2300 andsupport at 2200.

Market Overview

S oy be a n i s i n a n uppe rconsolidation phase on charts andone should look for buyingopportunities at lower levels, ifSoybean sustains above the level of2300 we can see the level of 2340,and on the down side if it sustainsbelow the level of 2200 we can seeSoybean at 2170 level.

Strategy

6th - 11th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

CHANA

5

Technical Analysis


CHANA GAINS ON TIGHT SUPPLY

hana futures traded negative throughout the week affected by

the progress of sowing and arrivals of the kharif pulses. The

Cmarket sentiments were affected by the increase in acreage by

55% in Rajasthan. The prices at Indore spot market was down by

`40/quintal to ̀ 2360/quintal. The Chana futures are expected to extend

the bearish trend for the week. The arrivals of kharif pulses are bringing

down the prices of the Chana prices at the spot and affecting the

market sentiments. This effect on prices can be witnessed on the

futures market also. As on 29th November 2010, acreage of Chana in

the Rajasthan has increased by 55% Y/Y to 11.81 lakh hectares.

However, in Andhra Pradesh area under Chana is down 10.34 % Y/Y to

5.2 lakh hectare as on 1st December. According to the crop

seasonality December to February is the lean season for Chana but

good marriage season demand during the same season can be seen.

This demand is met by stocks and imports from Canada and Australia.

The imports from Australia are not likely to be at the 2 lakh tons as

expected, because of the crop damage.

Daily Chart

Last week Chana took resistance ofthe important level of 2560 andreversed from that level. Chana wasin a tight range for the whole weekand was not sustaining at higherlevels. For the coming week Chanahas resistance at 2565 and support at2475.

Market Overview

Overall trend of Chana is ofconsolidation and one should go forselling at higher levels strategy in it.For the coming week if Chanasustains below 2475 level we cansee it at 2440 and above 2565 wecan expect the level of 2590.

Strategy

Reasons for Movement

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2655

R2 2588

R1 2546

PP 2521

S1 2479

S2 2454

S3 2387 F i g u r e : 1

J e e r a

Increase in acreageArrivals of kharif pulses

6th - 11th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

6

Symbol Exch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price Unit PreviousClose

Open LowHigh Close Qty.Traded

Net OpenInterest

WeeklyTurnOver(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-Dec-10 JEERA RS/QUINTAL 14320 14310 1401514815 14575 41388 255 7443 59,477.07

Weekly Market Update

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-Dec-10 PEPPER RS/QUINTAL 21746 21710 2171022791 22701 42432 955 9413 94,184.68

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-Dec-10 TURMERIC RS/QUINTAL 15776 16088 1442616350 15310 32030 -466 5525 49,411.18

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-Dec-10 GUARSEED RS/QUINTAL 2496 2510 23772540 2469 776170 -27 128700 189,786.49

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-JAN-10 GUARGUM RS/QUINTAL 6136 6225 58216244 6141 79855 5 40625 48,192.05

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-Dec-10 CHANA RS/QUINTAL 2527 2523 24962563 2505 276430 -22 80480 69,895.55

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-10 SOYBEAN RS/QUINTAL 2273.5 2283 22712344 2323 412140 49.5 225320 95,080.81

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-Dec-10 SOY OILREFINED

RS/10KGS 574.6 576 576599.45 593 547690 18.4 127320 322,664.67

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-Dec-10 RAPE MUS-TARD SEED

RS/20KGS 565.7 566.7 564575.4 572.8 246840 7.1 123680 70,391.53

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-Dec-10 COTTONSEED

OILCAKE

RS/QUINTAL 1007 1006 9951042 1040 208680 33 62470 21,142.36

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-Dec-10 GUR RS/40KGS 930.2 929 922.4934.2 927.5 31130 -2.7 13280 7,229.31

POTATO NCDEX 18-Mar-11 POTATO RS/QUINTAL 612.8 612 590.5631 593.6 44355-19.2 19980 2,708.06

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-Apr-11 KAPAS RS./20KG 709.8 708 705.6722 719.5 14007 9.7 5888 20,040.34

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-Dec-10 WHEAT RS/QUINTAL 1288.2 1289 1287.61292.8 1290.4 5210 2.2 15940 672.22

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-DEC-10 MENTHA OIL RS/KG 1222.7 1227 1225.21289.9 1263.7 23351 41 5054 105037.44

CARDAMOM MCX 15-Dec-10 CARDAMOM RS/KG 1111.8 1124.9 11201260 1248.7 9526 136.9 988 11452.55

6th - 11th Dec



AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

7

Weekly Market Update

EXCHANGE COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

NCDEX JEERA

NCDEX PEPPER

NCDEX TURMERIC

NCDEX GUARSEED

NCDEX GUARGUM

NCDEX CHANA

NCDEX SOYBEAN

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED

NCDEX COTTONSEED OILCAKE

NCDEX GUR

NCDEX POTATO

NCDEX KAPAS

NCDEX WHEAT

NCDEX MENTHA OIL

NCDEX CARDAMOM

14575

22701

15310

2469

6141

2505

2323

593

572.8

1040

927.5

593.6

719.5

1290.4

1263.7

1248.7

1.78

4.39

-2.95

-1.08

0.082

-0.87

2.18

3.20

1.26

3.28

-0.29

-3.13

1.37

0.17

0.25

12.31

Weekly Gainers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

CARDAMOM

PEPPER

MENTHA OIL

15-DEC-10

20-DEC-10

31-DEC-10

1248.7

22701

1263.7

12.31

4.39

3.35

Weekly Losers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

POTATO

TURMERIC

18-MAR-11

20-DEC-10

593.6

15310

-3.13

-2.95

GUARSEED 20-JAN-10 2469 -1.08

6th - 11th Dec



Weekly Pivots

JEERA(DEC)

Scripts R3

AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

8

R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

PEPPER(DEC)

TURMERIC(DEC)

GUARSEED(JAN)

GUARSGUM(JAN)

CHANA(DEC)

SOYBEAN(JAN)

REFINED SOYA OIL(JAN)

MUSTARD(DEC)

COTTONSEEDOIL CAKE (JAN)

GUR(DEC)

POTATO(MAR)

KAPAS

(APR)

MENTHA OIL(DEC)

CARDAMOM(DEC)

16068.33 15268.33 14921.67 14468.33 14121.67 13668.33 12868.33

24562.67 23481.67 23091.33 22400.67 22010.33 21319.67 20238.67

19210.00 17286.00 16298.00 15362.00 14374.00 13438.00 11514.00

2788.00 2625.00 2547.00 2462.00 2384.00 2299.00 2136.00

6914.67 6491.67 6316.33 6068.67 5893.33 5645.67 5222.67

2655.33 2588.33 2546.67 2521.33 2479.67 2454.33 2387.33

2458.67 2385.67 2354.33 2312.67 2281.33 2239.67 2166.67

636.38 612.93 602.97 589.48 579.52 566.03 542.58

593.53 582.13 577.47 570.73 566.07 559.33 547.93

1119.67 1072.67 1056.33 1025.67 1009.33 978.67 931.67

951.63 939.83 933.67 928.03 921.87 916.23 904.43

686.03 645.53 619.57 605.03 579.07 564.53 524.03

748.50 732.10 725.80 715.70 709.40 699.30 682.90

1389.00 1324.30 1294.00 1259.60 1229.30 1194.90 1130.20

1489.57 1349.57 1299.13 1209.57 1159.13 1069.57 929.57

6th - 11th Dec



Disclaimer

AGRI

Weekly Reports


A g r i R e p o r t

9

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RULES

6th - 11th Dec



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agri commodity reports for the week (6th - 10th december - 2010)

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