aging + place graduate school of design october 17, 2014 · aging + place . graduate school ......

© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE

Aging + Place Graduate School of Design

October 17, 2014


Housing as a Lynchpin of Well-Being

2

Financial Security

Physical Security

Social Connections

Linkages to Long-term Supports and Services

• High Housing Cost Burdens • Greater Mortgage Debt

Critical Roles Challenges

• Shortage of Accessible Units • Trade-off with Spending on

Housing, Food and Health Care

• Deficiencies in Housing Options, Transportation and Pedestrian Infrastructure, Increasing Risk of Isolation

• Disconnects Between Housing Programs and Health Care System


Demographics of an Aging America


The Older Population Is on Track to Increase Dramatically

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50–64 65–79 80 and Over

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

4

Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2012 National Population Projections (middle series).

Population by Age Group (Millions)


Aging Brings Increasing Risks of Disability and Isolation

5

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey.

Share Facing Difficulty by Age Group (Percent)

05

1015202530354045

Cognitive Self-Care Independent Living Mobility Live Alone

50–64 65–79 80 and Over

Type of Difficulty


Incomes for All Household Types Drop with Age, Leaving High Shares with Very Low Incomes

01020304050607080

50–64 65–79 80 and Over

White Asian/Other

Hispanic Black

6

Median Household Income by Age Group (Thousands of dollars)

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey.

Age


Housing and Financial Security


A Large Majority of Older Households are Homeowners, But Have Fallen Among 50–64 Year Olds

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

50–64 65–79 80 and Over

2005 2013

8

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys.

Homeownership Rate by Age Group (Percent)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50–64 65–79 80 andOver

50–64 65–79 80 andOver

50–64 65–79 80 andOver

Renters Owners with Mortgages Owners without Mortgages

Moderately Burdened Severely Burdened

Households Owning Their Homes Outright Are Much Less Likely to Be Cost Burdened

9

Share of Households by Age Group (Percent)

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey.


Households 65 and Over Are Carrying Much More Mortgage Debt into Their Retirement Years

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1992 1998 2004 2007 201020

25

30

35

40

45

50

1992 1998 2004 2007 2010

10

Source: JCHS tabulations of Federal Reserve Board, Surveys of Consumer Finances.

Share of Owners with Mortgage Debt by Age Group (Percent)

Average Loan-to-Value Ratio for Owners with Mortgages by Age Group (Percent)


Even Excluding Home Equity, Owners Have Substantially More Wealth than Renters

11

Distribution of Net Wealth among Households Aged 50 and Over (Dollars)

Notes: Total net wealth includes both financial and nonfinancial assets. Percentiles for each category of wealth are calculated separately; as a result, percentile values for the components of homeowner wealth do not sum up to total homeowner wealth within each percentile. Source: JCHS tabulations of Federal Reserve Board, 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances.

Percentile

10th 25th Median 75th 90th

Owner

Total Wealth 38,100 104,500 267,100 694,600 1,888,700

Home Equity 14,000 50,000 111,000 240,000 450,000

Other Assets 4,600 22,900 117,000 496,500 1,491,800

Renter

Total Wealth -1,800 60 6,100 27,700 155,700


Rapid Growth in Older Eligible Renters Will Put Even More Pressure on Housing Assistance Programs

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2003 2007 2011 2020 2030

Assisted Not Assisted Projected

Very Low-Income Renter Households Aged 62 and Over (Millions)

Sources: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, Worst Case Needs Reports to Congress, and JCHS 2013 Household Projections.


Accessibility Needs and the Housing Stock


Single-Floor Living is The Most Common Accessibility Feature

01020304050607080

Single-FloorLiving

AccessibleElectricalControls

No-Step Entry Lever-StyleHandles onDoors andFaucets

Extra-WideHallways and

Doors

Share of Housing Units (Percent)

14

Notes: Single-floor living units have both a bedroom and bath on the entry level. Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey.


But Very Few Homes Have at Least Three Accessibility Features

0102030405060708090

100

At least 1 2 or more 3 or more 4 or more 5Number of Accessibility Features

Share of Units (Percent)

15

Notes: Accessibility features specifically include no-step entry, single-floor living, extra-wide hallways and doors, accessible electrical controls and switches, and lever-style handles on doors and faucets. Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey.


By Age 80, Adults Are Far More Likely to Have Disabilities than to Live in Accessible Homes

16

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey, and US Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50–64 65–79 80 and OverHousing Units with 3 or More Accessibility Features Population Reporting Disabilities

Shares of Housing Units and Population with Disabilities by Age Group (Percent)


Policies and Programs to Promote Accessibility

• Visitability Ordinances: Incentives or mandates for accessibility features in new housing

• Tax Incentives: Tax credits for homeowners or

builders adding accessibility features

• Grants or Low-Interest Loans: Federal, state, and local funds to assist homeowners in modifying their homes (including through Medicaid)

• Volunteer Assistance: Efforts such as Rebuilding

Together to mobilize volunteers and donations

17


Social Connection and Community Support

18


With High Share of Older Households in Car-Dependent Suburbs and Non-Metro Areas, Aging Will Bring Heightened Risk of Isolation

25%

50% 25%

Share of Households Age 50+

CentralCitySuburb

Non-Metro

19

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2009 and 2011 American Housing Survey. AARP Research and Strategic Analysis, “Transportation Use and Options of Midlife and Older Adults,” 2010.

Age 80+ WithoutCar

Age 50+ MissActivities Due toLimits on Driving

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Share of Persons (Percent)


Approaches to Enhance Connectivity

• Services supporting aging in community: senior centers, Area Agencies on Aging, meals delivery, home care, adult day care, etc.

• Housing options close to commercial centers and transit

• Accessibility of transit, transit alternatives

• Improved pedestrian experience

20


Linking Housing and Long-Term Supports and Services

21


Trends in Long-term Services and Supports

• Vast majority of older households with disabilities live in the community

• Number of adults in institutional settings has declined 20% over 2000-2010

• Two-thirds rely exclusively on family members for long-term care and only 9% do not rely on family at all—but there will be fewer family members to turn to in the future

22


Cost of Long-Term Services and Supports Are Quite High—Out of Reach for Most Renters

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000

Adult Day Care Homemaker Home HealthAide

Assisted Living

23

Sources: 2014 Genworth Cost of Care Survey.

Median Monthly Cost


Expanding Affordable Housing with Long-Term Supportive Services

• Expansion of HUD Programs to Provide Housing With Supportive Services

• Non-profit Models Linking Long-Term Services to Assisted Housing Developments

• Medicaid Support for Aging in Place

24


In 1990, Only a Few Counties had Large Concentrations of Older Adults

25

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 1990 Decennial Census.

Share of County Population Aged 50 and Over in 1990 (Percent)

Under 25

25–39

40 and Over


By 2010, Communities Across the Country Had High Concentrations of Older Residents

26

Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.

Share of County Population Aged 50 and Over (Percent)

Under 25 25–39 40 and Over

aging + place graduate school of design october 17, 2014 · aging + place . graduate school ......

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