agenda pembangunan pasca covid-19 · •menjelma sebagai pandemi global, menyebar ke 202 negara dan...
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AGENDA PEMBANGUNANPASCA COVID-19
Faisal Basri7 Mei 2020
COVID-19: Bencana dahsyat
• Memicu perubahan dalam berbagai aspek kehidupan
• Menjelma sebagai pandemi global, menyebar ke 202 negara dan teritori di setiap benua kecuali Antartika.
• Menjangkiti hampir 3,8 juta orang dan yang meninggal dunia 263 ribu lebih, sejauh ini.
• Menghempaskan perekonomian dunia, terparah setelah Depresi Besar 1929-1939 dengan puncaknya 1933. Perkiraan ADB: global costmencapai US$4,1 triliun atau hampir 5 persen PDB global. Sangat boleh jadi lebih besar lagi.
• “New normal”
Faisal Basri 2
U.S. labor market tumbles closer to depression level30.3 million Americas filed for unemployment since March 15, 2020
Source: U. S. Department of Labor.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
01
/07
/67
01
/20
/68
02
/01
/69
02
/14
/70
02
/27
/71
03
/11
/72
03
/24
/73
04
/06
/74
04
/19
/75
05
/01
/76
05
/14
/77
05
/27
/78
06
/09
/79
06
/21
/80
07
/04
/81
07
/17
/82
07
/30
/83
08
/11
/84
08
/24
/85
09
/06
/86
09
/19
/87
10
/01
/88
10
/14
/89
10
/27
/90
11
/09
/91
11
/21
/92
12
/04
/93
12
/17
/94
12
/30
/95
01
/11
/97
01
/24
/98
02
/06
/99
02
/19
/00
03
/03
/01
03
/16
/02
03
/29
/03
04
/10
/04
04
/23
/05
05
/06
/06
05
/19
/07
05
/31
/08
06
/13
/09
06
/26
/10
07
/09
/11
07
/21
/12
08
/03
/13
08
/16
/14
08
/29
/15
09
/10
/16
09
/23
/17
10
/06
/18
10
/19
/19
Mill
ion
s
(Millions of weekly unemployment insurance claims, seasonally adjusted)
0.3
3.3
6.9
6.6
5.2
4.4
3.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mill
ion
s
In 2020
Faisal Basri 3
U.S. Economy shrank at fastest pace since 20084
.9
1.2
0.4
3.2
0.2
3.1
2.7
1.4
-2.7
2.0
-1.9
-8.2
-5.4
-0.5
1.3
3.9
1.7
3.9
2.7
2.5
-1.0
2.9
-0.1
4.7
3.2
1.7
0.5
0.5
3.6
0.5
3.2
3.2
-1.1
5.5
5.0
2.3
3.2
3.0
1.3
0.1
2.0
1.9 2
.2
2.0 2
.3
2.2
3.2 3
.5
2.5
3.5
2.9
1.1
3.1
2.0 2.1
2.1
-4.8
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Q1
-20
06
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
07
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
08
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
09
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
10
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
11
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
12
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
13
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
14
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
17
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
18
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
19
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
20
Quarterly GDP growth, percent
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Faisal Basri 4
Euro Area economic growth is the hardest hit
1.20.6
1.3
0.3
2
-7.5-7 -7.2
-9.1
-8
Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain
Percent
2019 2020*
Europe inches toward a $2.2 trillion plan that may never happen
* Projection.Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues. Faisal Basri 5
Eurozone economy suffers record contraction, steeper than U.S. during the same period
-12
0
-14.4
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Eurozone GDP, quarterly change at an annualized rate, percent
Note: Adjusted for inflation, the seasons and changes in the calendar.Source: Eurostat. Faisal Basri 6
Pertumbuhan ekonomi China anjlok tahun ini, triwulan I-2020 alamikontraksi 6,8 persen
* Projection.Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.
8.5
8.3
10.0
14.2
9.7 9.4
10.6
9.6
7.9 7.87.3
6.9 6.7 6.8 6.66.1
1.20
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020*
Percent
Q1-2020 (year-on-year) = -6.8%
Faisal Basri 7
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Indonesia: quarterly GDP growth
2.97
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Q1
-09
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-10
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-11
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-12
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-13
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-14
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-17
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-18
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-19
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-20
Quarterly GDP growth, percent
Faisal Basri 8
Konsensus nasional baru
• Sumber daya alam untuk menyejahterakan rakyat, termasuk untuk generasi mendatang (keadilan antargenerasi).
• Hubungan negara-buruh/pekerja-pengusaha: jejaring pengaman sosial.
• Universal basic income.
• Hubungan pusat-daerah.
• Ketahanan nasional: sosial, kesehatan, energi, pangan, keuangan.
• Merawat demokrasi.
• Kembali ke jati diri bangsa: negara maritim.
Faisal Basri 9
Merawat demokrasi
Sumber: Diadaptasi dari Daron Acemoglu dan James A. Robinson, The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty, London: Penguin Press.
Poland +
Corporation
Society: non-elites (similar but more general than civil society)
Power of society: norms against political hierarchy and elites and bottom-up mobilization; institutionalization is key.
State: state institutions and elites that control them.
Power of the state: both the ability of the elites and the institutions they control to dominate society and capabilities and capacity of state institutions.
Liberty: the state of being free within society from oppressive restrictions imposed by authority on one's way of life, behavior, or political views.
Faisal Basri 10
The Third Pillar: Raghuram Rajan
Community
State Market
❑ State is the political governance structure of a country. In this context, it will refer to the central government. In addition to the executive branch, the state will also include the legislature and the judiciary.
❑ Markets will include all private economic structures facilitating production and exchange in the economy.
❑ Community is a social group of any size whose members reside in a specific locality, share government, and often have a common cultural and historical heritage.
Faisal Basri 11
Tenaga kesehatan kita minim sekali
5.44.6
4.54.24.2
4.14.1
3.53.2
2.82.6
8.24.0
2.42.2
2.11.8
1.51.1
0.90.80.80.8
0.4
Sweden (2016)Norway (2017)
Denmark (2016)Germany (2016)
Switzerland (2016)Italy (2017)
Spain (2016)Netherlands (2016)
France (2016)United Kingdom (2017)
United States (2016)Cuba (2017)
Russian Federation (2016)Korea, Rep. (2017)
Mexico (2016)Brazil (2018)China (2015)
Malaysia (2015)Iran (2015)
South Africa (2017)Thailand (2017)Vietnam (2016)
India (2017)Indonesia (2017)
Physicians per 1,000 people
17.3
13.2
11.5
10.3
11.1
9.7
8.6
8.3
5.9
5.5
9.7
7.8
7.0
4.1
3.5
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.4
Switzerland (2016)
Germany (2016)
Sweden (2016)
Denmark (2016)
Netherlands (2016)
France (2016)
United States (2015)
United Kingdom (2017)
Italy (2017)
Spain (2016)
Brazil (2018)
Cuba (2017)
Korea, Rep. (2017)
Malaysia (2015)
South Africa (2017)
Thailand (2017)
Mexico (2016)
Turkey (2015)
China (2015)
India (2017)
Indonesia (2017)
Iran (2015)
Vietnam (2016)
Nurses and midwives per 1,000 people
12Faisal Basri
Jumlah tempat tidur rumah sakit pun terbatas
13.48.3
6.54.7
4.03.9
3.43.0
2.92.8
2.62.5
11.58.2
5.24.2
2.82.7
2.62.1
1.91.51.5
1.20.7
Japan (2012)Germany (2013)
France (2013)Switzerland (2013)
Netherlands (2016)Norway (2013)
Italy (2012)Spain (2013)
United States (2013)United Kingdom (2013)
Sweden (2013)Denmark (2015)
Korea, Rep. (2015)Russian Federation (2013)
Cuba (2014)China (2012)
South Africa (2005)Turkey (2013)
Vietnam (2014)Thailand (2010)Malaysia (2015)
Mexico (2015)Iran (2014)
Indonesia (2015)India (2011)
Hospital beds per 1,000 people
13Faisal Basri
Pengeluaran untuk kesehatan sangat rendah
12.1911.77
11.1410.9310.93
10.5010.35
8.978.94
8.118.10
7.557.34
6.085.66
5.475.27
5.094.98
4.474.39
4.313.80
3.713.66
3.122.362.34
CubaBrazil
GermanyJapan
SwedenNorway
DenmarkSpain
ItalySouth Africa
IranArgentina
Korea, Rep.Cambodia
VietnamMexico
Russian FederationMyanmar
ChinaSingapore
PhilippinesTurkey
MalaysiaThailand
IndiaIndonesia
Lao PDRBrunei Darussalam
Current health expenditure , percent of GDP, 2016 or the latest
Source: World Bank: Faisal Basri 14
Titik pijak 2013
Sasaran 2019
Realisasi2019
Sumatera 23.8 24.6 21.3
Jawa 58.0 55.1 59.0
Bali & Nusa Tenggara 2.5 2.6 3.1
Kalimantan 8.7 9.6 8.1
Sulawesi 4.8 5.2 6.3
Maluku dan Papua 2.2 2.9 2.2
Sumber: RPJM 2015-2019
dan BPS.
Sasaran pemerataan pembangunan wilayahberdasarkan RPJM 2015-2019
Faisal Basri 15
Jumlah dokter di tujuan mudik utamadi bawah rerata nasional
10
.8
6.3
6.1
5.3
4.7
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.7
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.3
3.02
Dokter per 10.000 penduduk, 2019
Reratanasional
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik.Faisal Basri 16
Ketersediaan perawatpaling sedikit di Jawa Barat
25
.5
23
.0
21
.4
21
.4
20
.9
20
.7
20
.0
20
.0
19
.7
19
.5
19
.0
18
.5
18
.3
17
.6
16
.8
16
.5
16
.4
16
.3
15
.4
15
.1
14
.8
14
.6
14
.0
13
.9
13
.0
12
.9
12
.1
12
.0
11
.2
11
.1
10
.9
9.8
7.4
7.2
12.89
Perawat per 10.000 penduduk, 2019
Reratanasional
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik.Faisal Basri 17
Tempat tidur rumah sakit pun di bawah rerata nasional
22
.4
21
.5
18
.3
17
.2
16
.3
16
.2
15
.8
15
.1
15
.0
14
.7
14
.6
14
.2
13
.3
13
.3
12
.8
12
.4
12
.2
12
.3
12
.0
11
.9
11
.4
11
.4
10
.5
10
.5
10
.3
10
.3
9.9
8.8
8.8
8.3
8.2 8.3
7.9
6.8
12.7
Tempat tidur rumah sakit per 10.000 penduduk, 2017
Sumber: Pusat Data dan Informasi Kementerian Kesehatan dan BPS.
Reratanasional
Faisal Basri 18
Social mobility index, 2019
85.283.683.683.5
82.778.8
76.776.1
74.674.4
71.470.4
64.762.0
61.557.8
55.452.6
52.151.7
51.349.3
43.842.7
41.434.5
1. Denmark2. Norway3. Finland
4. Sweden5. Iceland
11. Germany12. France15. Japan
20. Singapore21. United Kingdom
25. Korea, Rep.27. United States
39. Russian Federation43. Malaysia
45. China50. Vietnam55. Thailand
58. Mexico60. Brazil
61. Philippines64. Turkey
67. Indonesia72. Lao PDR
76. India77. South Africa82. Côte d'Ivoire
Source: World Economic Forum. Faisal Basri 19
Social mobility and inequality
IDN
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Social mobility index
Ineq
ua
lity
Faisal Basri 20
1,685
808
281
1,785
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
19
651
966
19
671
968
19
691
970
19
711
972
19
731
974
19
751
976
19
771
978
19
791
980
19
811
982
19
831
984
19
851
986
19
871
988
19
891
990
19
911
992
19
931
994
19
951
996
19
971
998
19
992
000
20
012
002
20
032
004
20
052
006
20
072
008
20
092
010
20
112
012
20
132
014
20
152
016
20
172
018
Thousand barrels daily
Production Consumption
Oil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing through surface separating facilities.
Oil consumption: Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives of coal and natural gas are also included.
-977(Importa-
ble)
1,404(Exporta-
ble)
Source:. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 68th edition, 2019.
Skyrocketing fuel consumption, the production slump, making imports increasingly undermined the economy
Faisal Basri 21
Projection of energy trade account
Source: .Wood MackenzieFaisal Basri 22
Trade deficit of manufacturing products
-27.6
-130
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Exports Imports Surplus/deficit
US$ b
illions
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Faisal Basri 23
0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4
-1.0-0.0 -0.3
-1.4
-4.2
-2.6 -2.9 -2.5
-0.6
-2.1 -1.9
-3.3
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Trade account of food (SITC 0)USD billions
Exports Imports Surplus/deficit
Trade deficit of food (and live animals) since 2007
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Faisal Basri 24
Impor gula
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ion
to
ns
US$
bill
ion
s
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 25
Impor daging sejenis lembu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tho
usa
nd
to
ns
US$
mill
ion
s)
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 26
Impor daging dan binatang hidup
-11
6
-10
3
-12
6
-15
6
-20
3
-21
6
-39
2
-60
7
-71
6
-85
3
-66
0
-45
3
-59
4
-1,1
30
-81
0
-1,1
93
-1,1
36
-1,3
31
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
HS 02 & HS 01* (US$ millions)
HS 02 HS 01 (excluding HS 0101 & 0106) TOTALSumber: Internasional Trade Center..
HS 02 - Meat and edible meat offalHS 01 - Live animals• HS 0101-Live horses, asses, mules
and hinnies• HS 0106-Live animals (excluding
horses, asses, mules, hinnies, bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats, . . .
Faisal Basri 27
Impor beras
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ion
to
ns
US$
bill
ion
s
Volume - RHS Value
Sumber: BPS.
Faisal Basri 28
Impor biji gandum dan meslin
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ion
to
ns
US$
bill
ion
s
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 29
Impor kedelai
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ion
to
n
US$
mill
ion
s
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS. Faisal Basri 30
Impor buah-buahan
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tho
usa
nd
to
ns
US$
bill
ion
s
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS.
Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 60,2 persen (terbesar)
Faisal Basri 31
Impor sayuran
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tho
usa
nd
to
ns
US$
mill
ion
s
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS.
Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 67,5 persen (terbesar)
Faisal Basri 32
Impor garam
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ion
to
ns
US$
mill
ion
s
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS.
Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 0,02 persen
Faisal Basri 33
Impor tembakau
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tho
usa
nd
to
ns
US$
mill
ion
s
Value Volume - RHS
Sumber: BPS.
Volume impor dari China tahun 2019: 41,5 persen (terbesar)
Faisal Basri 34