aga2012__ presentation by sir gordon conway

7/29/2019 AGA2012__ Presentation by Sir Gordon Conway

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Lin k in g Food , Far m er s and

M a r k e t sSi r Gor don Con w ay ,

Pro fesso r o f I n t e rna t i ona lDev e l opmen t ,

Ag r i cu l t u r e f o r I m p act ,I m per i a l Co l l ege Lond on

Globa l Donor Pla t f o r m fo rRu r a l Deve lopm ent AGA,

The Net he r lands,

Januar y 3 1 st , 20 13


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Recurring food price spikes

About 1 billion people

(1 in 6 of the worlds population)

are chronically hungry

We have to increase food production by70-100% by 2050


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St un t i ng l in k ed t o ov e r 3 .5 m deat hs unde r f i v es

St un t i ng has la rge l y i r r ev ers i b le l ong - t e rm

e f f ect s on hea lt h and dev e lopm en t


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DEMAND

Ris ingpopu la t i ons

Ris ing percap i t a

i nc om es

G r ow ing

d e m a n d f o rl i ves tockp r oduc t s

G r ow ing

d e m a n d f o rb io fue ls

SUPPLY

I m p act o fc l im a t echange

I nc r eas ingw at er &

land scarc i t y

Slow ing o fp r oduc t i v i t y

inc reases

Ris ing fu e l &fe r t i l i se r

pr icessp ikes

CONTRI BUTETO HUNGER


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M ea t consum p t i on r i sesw i t h p er cap i t a in co m e

Rise in Meat Con su m p t ion

Source: FAO,2009

!


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Average

Ann u a l MaxTem p > 3 0 0C

#(%+%&"'$$"#'&$#'!'""##"&(%'*"'#'%#$&


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Russia Se ver e h e at w a ve i n 2 0 1 0 Doub led Moscow s dea th

r a t e 3 0 % o f g r a in cr o p s lo st t o b u r n in gPak is tan

W o r st f l oo d s i n 8 0 y e ar s Ki l l ed o v er 1 6 0 0 p e o p le Su b m er g e d 1 / 5 t h o f t h e co u n t r y , i n clu d i n g

1 4 % o f Pa k i st a n s cu l t i v a t e d l an d


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Mr s. N am ar u n da


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3

2 31 4


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Th e r e i s n o t m u ch m o r e n ewarab le land ava i lab le

W e h a ve t o i n t en s i f y

Mo r e w i t h LessGr eat er p r odu ct i v i t y bu t sm al ler

en v i r o n m en t a l f o o t p r i n t


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I ncr eased y i el ds o r p r oduct i on

On t h e sam e am o u n t o f l an d W i t h l ess w at er Less fe r t i l i se r s Less p est ic ides Low er em ission s o f Gr een h ou se Gases

I ncr eased n at u r a l cap i t a l& env i r onm en t a l ser v i ces

Gr eat e r r esi l i ence


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Use eco lo g ica l p r in cip les t odesign ag r i cu l t u r a l p r act i ces

e.g.

- A g r o f o r e st r y

- I n t eg r at ed Pest

Man ag em en t ( I PM)

- Or gan i c f a rm ing


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/,0'#""&-


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Pl an t s m o r e n u t r i t i ou s ca r b o h y d r at e & p r o t e i n m icron u t r i en t s ( Vi t A , i r on , zi nc)

Plan t s m o re r esi l i en t t o pes t s an d d iseases cl im a t e chang e

Plan t s m or e ef f i ci en t a t co n v e r t i n g su n l i g h t t o f o o d t ak i n g u p n i t r o g en f r o m t h e at m o sp h er e u si n g w at er


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Mont y Jones


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$5 00 m i l l ion l ossesa year i n Ugand a

Academ ia Sin icap r o v i d ed sw eet

p o t a t o g en e Successfu l ly

t r a n sf er r ed t obananas

I n Ug an d a n f i e l dt r i a l s

Ent i re lyg o v er n m en t f u n d e d


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Uns tab le & un p r ed i ct ab le govern m en t po l ici es Techn o log ies ( eg . seeds ) no t app r op r ia te o r t oo

r i s ky

High t r ansact i on cost s Monopo ly p ow er o f l oca l t r ader s, dealer s and

lende rs

Out pu t p r i ces t oo l ow High t r anspo r t cost s Farm ing w i t h ou t bus iness goa ls


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Good gov ern ance An app r op r i at e enab l ing

e n v i r o n m e n t

Bu t t h e y d o n o t h a v e t o b e p er f ect


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##"#%%")#('#"#%%.

Rural Economy

Farm Household in thelocal community

Seed Co

Agrodealer

FertiliserCo

Banks formicrocredit

Localtrader

Connectivity

Regional trade

National trade


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Reliable quality Accessible Affordable With subsidies or microcredit Plus extension advice And microinsurance


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Vict o r ia Seed s


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I n p u t Mar k et s


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Fa ir , e f f i c i en t , t r anspar en t Accessib le Choice


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Do m est ic/ r eg io n al m ar k et s m ay b e a

b et t er b e t t h a n g l ob a l

Focu s on r e t u r n Use sm ar t su bsid ies i n som e si t u a t i ons Encou r age f a rm er g r oup ings En su r e p r i va t e sect o r h as cen t r a l r o le

Sup po r t capaci t y b u i l d i ng & l ear n in g


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I n c r e ase b a r g a i n i n g p o w e r , r e d u ce r i sk s,cr e a t e g r ea t e r a d d ed v a lu e

I nc lud e food , f odd e r , seed ban k s, st o r agefaci l i t i es, sav in gs and cr ed i t g r ou ps , evene x t e n d e d f a m i l i es

Coopera t i ves- N eed t o b e f ocu sed s m al l w i t h h i g h r e t u r n s

- T ransact ion cos ts can be h igh

- Of t en po l i t i cal - need t o bu i l d t ru st

Co n t r a ct f a r m i n g- Pre d i ct a b le an d re l ia b le ( b u t n o t a lw a ys)

- Pr ob lem o f si de -se l l i ng


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SavannaAgr i cu l t u ra lResearch

I n s t i t u t e


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Th er e i s no b luep r in t Each si t u a t ion i s d i f fe r en t

Faci l i t a t e & enab le Lear n & ad j ust Som e good ex pe r ience o f l ink ingp o o r est an d m o st m ar g i n al b u t n e ed

m o r e


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Pl an r i g id l y w i t h st r i ct t ar g et s Per s i st n o m at t er w h a t e.g . r e f u se t o

ad m i t y ou h av e w r o n g m o del Ch ang e as m u ch as possib le a t t h e

sam e t im e Av o i d sp en d i n g t i m e & f u n d s o n

m o n i t o r i n g Give h and- ou t s Hav e n o f u n d s o r t i m e in r eser v e t od eal w i t h u n e x p ect ed p r o b l em s Br i n g i n o u t si d er s t o r u n & f i x p r o b l em s


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W o m en a s:

Far mer s

M o t h e r s

I n n o v a t o r s Educato rs


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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Agriculture Growth

Constant$

million

(2000)

(3-yearmoving

average)

1961/62

1962/64

1964/66

1966/68

1968/70

1970/72

1972/74

1974/76

1976/78

1978/80

1980/82

1982/84

1984/86

1986/88

1988/90

1990/92

1992/94

1994/96

1996/98

1998/00

2000/02

2002/04

2004/06

2006/08

Average growth2.6%/year

Average growth5.1%/year

Average growth-3.1%/year

1974 1982


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34

16

12

8

30.

3

24.9

21.8

17.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Undernourishment (FAOSTAT) (left axis) Under-5 underweight (DHS) (left axis)

Food supply (FAOSTAT) (right axis)

%

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008


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Agriculturedevelops

&

intensifies

Greateryields

&

Nutritivecrops

Farmersmore

prosperous

Morewage

labour

Lesshunger

Better

health

Ruraleconomy

grows

More ruralemployment

Moreroads and

markets

Greater tradeopportunities

Urbane c o n o my

l i n k s

Sus ta inab led ie t s

& Be t t e re n v i r o n m e n t

ers

ero

Th an k You


46/46

Leap ing & Learn ing

w w w . a g 4 i m p a c t . o r g

One Bi l l ion Hung r y : can w e feed t h e w o r l d?w w w . c a n w e f e e d t h e w o r l d . o r g

Fo l lo w A4 I o n Tw i t t e r :@Ag 4 I m p act # 1 b i l l io n h u n g r y

Contac t :g .con w ay@im per ia l .ac.uk

Th an k You

aga2012__ presentation by sir gordon conway

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