13-14 APRIL 2012University of California, Berkeley

长江三峡大坝研讨会

GORGES

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?3 DAM

AFTERAFTER

SUMMARY OFSYMPOSIUM

IMPACT ON FLOWS

GEOMORPHIC IMPACTS

GEOLOGIC HAZARDS

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTSISBN 978-0-9837986-4-4 DEPART MENT OF LANDSCAPE ARCHIT ECTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

“Over the past two decades, it should be said that people have a better understanding of the Three Gorges project, whether they are in favor or against the dam. It is therefore time to make it clear: which is greater in the end, the advantages or the disadvantages? What are the benefits and what are the costs? To determine this is very important, not only for China, but for the world.”

Li Rui, opening statement, read by his daughter, Li Nanyang13 April, 2012

The Proceedings of the Symposium are published in two parts: (1) this printed summary and (2) the appendices which are available online at http://laep.ced.berkeley.edu/3gd. These summaries rely upon information provided in submitted papers, presentations by participants, and the recorded transcripts of discussion.

二十年间，关于三峡工程，应该说，无论赞成还是反对的人，都有了比二十年前更多的认识，这个工程到底是利大还是弊大？究竟利在哪里、弊在哪里？是到了需要搞清楚的时候了。这不但对中国很重要，对世界也非常重要。

李锐：“开幕词”，2012年4月13日，由其女儿李南央代读

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ONLINE APPENDICES

“研讨会会议记录”分两部分发布：（1）这份概要；（2）http://laep.ced.berkeley.edu/3gd 在线提供的附件。这些概要直接摘自提交的论文、与会者的发言以及讨论的录音文稿。由于有关三峡工程的问题仍有争议，我们引用了与会者对草稿的意见中的原话（斜体字部分）。

available at http://laep.ced.berkeley.edu/3gd

PURPOSE OF THE SYMPOSIUM研讨会的目的 1

THREE GORGES IN CONTEXT三峡工程的背景 3

SESSION 1: IMPACTS ON FLOWS会议1：对水流的影响 5

SESSION 2: GEOMORPHIC IMPACTS会议2：地貌影响 9

SESSION 3: GEOLOGIC HAZARDS会议3：地质灾害 13

SESSION 4: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS会议4：环境影响 17

SESSION 5: SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS会议5：社会经济影响 21

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ON THE FOUR POSED QUESTIONS

四个问题的讨论结果摘要25

SYMPOSIUM SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES研讨会发言者简历 29

SYMPOSIUM AGENDA研讨会议程 33

STATE COUNCIL STATEMENT, 18 MAY 2011国务院常务会议讨论通过《三峡后续工作规划》等, 2011年05月18日 A

FULL SYMPOSIUM PROGRAM研讨会议程-完整版本 B

SUBMITTED PAPERS FROM INVITED SPEAKERS C

“No, this is not true. Actually, debate on Three Gorges Dam in China began long before the date of what premier Wen Jia Bao stated and has been impossible [to] stop. Many symposiums and workshops in China have been held in the last decade to discuss the positive and negative impact on social and environmental development. China has been already open to all voices to Three Gorges Dam if one pays attention by searching through various media, publications, government documents, and newspaper,” noted Chen Zhongyuan and Chen Daqing.1

“不，并非如此。事实上，有关中国三峡工程的争论远在温家宝总理颁发文件以前就开始了，并且一直没有停止。在过去十年里，许多场研讨会和讨论会在中国举办，以探讨对社会和环境发展的利弊影响。如果留心此事，通过检索各种媒体、出版物、政府文件和报纸，就会发现中国已经对有关三峡工程的所有声音开放了。”陈中原和陈大庆两位教授说。

The Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning (LAEP) at the University of California, Berkeley has pioneered the Post-Project Assessment (PPA) as a systematic, scientific method for improving the practice of environmental management — particularly as it applies to human interventions in river systems. In 2012, the department challenged itself to organize a symposium-based PPA for the world’s largest — and some would say most controversial — hydroelectric project, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River.

China is at a critical point in its development path. It has invested heavily in large-scale infrastructure projects like the Three Gorges Dam, choosing the rapid rewards of economic growth in a long-term trade-off with environmental and social costs. The Three Gorges Dam stands as a major infrastructure project in its own right — affecting the lives of 400 million people living downstream in the Yangtze Valley. As the mega-project progenitor in a cascade of planned dams, it also emerges as a test case for how China will plan, execute and mitigate its development pathway and the transformation of its environment.

On 18 May 2011 the State Council of the Chinese Government, chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao, issued a statement expressing the urgent need to solve problems caused by the project’s escalating social, environmental, and public safety impacts [Appendix B]. This official statement gave credence to experts, within and outside China, who analyzed plans and warned of their consequences. Prior to this symposium, these scientists, engineers and economists have not had the opportunity to present their evaluations together in an open, public forum.

PURPOSE OF THE SYMPOSIUM

美国加州大学伯克利分校园林建筑学与环境规划系（LAEP）倡导以“后工程评估”（PPA）作为改善环境管理实践的系统、科学方法，涉及对河流系统的人为干预时尤其如此。2012年，该系为世界上最大的 — 在一些人看来也最富争议 — 水电工程，即长江上的三峡工程组织了一项基于研讨会的PPA。

中国正处于其发展道路的临界点。它已在像三峡工程这样的大型基础设施工程上投资甚巨，宁愿以长远的环境和社会代价来换取经济快速增长的回报。三峡工程本身就是一项影响着4亿生活在长江流域下游的居民的生活的重要基础设施工程。作为一系列拟建巨型水坝工程的老大，三峡工程也提供了一个最好的案例，以检验中国将如何规划其发展道路、执行其发展规划、放缓其发展步伐，以及如何应对环境转变的挑战。

2011年5月18日，以温家宝总理为首的中国国务院颁发了一份文件，表示由三峡工程日益加剧的社会、环境和公共安全影响所引发的问题亟需解决[附件B]。这份官方文件接受了曾经对三峡工程规划进行分析并对其后果提出警告的国内外专家们的意见。在本次研讨会之前，这些科学家、工程师和经济学家们没有机会在一个开放、公开的场合提出并一起讨论他们的评估意见。

研讨会的目的

“Many developed countries, including USA, export their funds and damming skil ls to developing countries,” noted Chen Zhongyuan and Chen Daqing.

“包括美国在内的许多发达国家都向发展中国家输出它们的资金和建坝技术。”陈中原和陈大

The ideas and data presented and discussed at the symposium reveal the unfolding impacts of the project and inform debate on how to mitigate adverse effects. Equally important, the resulting analysis may influence the massive expansion of worldwide hydroelectric development as China exports its financing and dam building expertise.

与会者们在研讨会上提供并讨论的想法和数据，展现了三峡工程正在发生的影响，并显示出在如何缓解负面影响上的争论。同样重要的是，由于中国输出其资本和建坝技术，结果分析可能会影响全球水电开发的大规模扩展。

1. Speakers from the symposium were invited to review a draf t of the proceedings. Their responses are embedded within this summary and denoted with a highlighted background.

1

In planning for dams, many decisions go straight from defining a problem to implementing policy. Planning can be improved with intermediate steps (in blue): establishing goals and specific objectives, deliberating alternatives and modeling potential outcomes in order to select best policies and avoid unintended consequences. Analysis of monitoring results are a key component of a PPA (in yellow). These critical step helps refine plans based on actual outcomes (in red). Source: Phil Williams’ symposium presentation, adapted from CALFED.

在对水坝的规划中，许多决定都直接从确定问题转到执行政策。规划可以通过制定宏观目标和具体目标，认真考虑替代方案以及做可能的结果模型来改善，以选择最佳的政策和避免出乎意料的后果。监测结果分析是有助于根据实际后果来改善规划的PPA的重要组成部分。

DEFINE PROBLEM确定问题

ESTABLISH GOALS & OBJECTIVES设立目标和宗旨

SPECIFY CONCEPTUAL MODELS指定概念模型

IMPLEMENT SELECTED POLICY实施选定的策略

MONITOR CONSEQUENCES监测结果

ASSESS & ADAPT评估和调整

SIMULATE OUTCOMES模拟结果

SET NEW设立新的

REFINE改善

CONTINUE继续

REDEFINE重新确定

How tHe symposium was organizedPPAs have been described as ‘learning from experience.’ While true, their value is most realized when integrated into adaptive management for river basin planning (Figure 0-2). Thus the focus of the symposium was forward looking: how to address impacts and implement policy within a planning horizon of 50 years and beyond.

The Symposium agenda [Appendix B] encompassed five sessions focused on issues identified in the May 18th State Council Statement [Appendix A]: impacts on flows, geomorphic changes, geologic hazards, environmental impacts and socioeconomic effects. We asked participants to address four questions:

1. What have we learned from Three Gorges Dam?2. What are predicted impacts over the next 50 years and beyond?3. What can be done to mitigate adverse impacts?4. How can future project planning and management improve?On 13-14 April 2012, twelve Chinese experts with recent research on the Three Gorges Dam shared their evaluations. For each session, a discussant responded to key points made by presenters and elicited questions from the audience to encourage free discussion and debate. The meeting concluded with a plenary discussion among all presenters.

研讨会的组织形式“后工程评估”（PPAs）被称为是“从经验中学习”。这虽然不假，但当它们被融入流域规划的适应性管理当中时，才能最充分地实现其价值（图0-2）。因此，这次研讨会的重点是向前看：如何在50年的规划周期之内和以后，应对影响并实施政策。

研讨会议程[附件B]包括5场集中讨论5月18日的国务院文件[附件A]所确认的问题 — 对水流的影响、地貌变化、地质灾害、环境影响及社会经济影响 — 的会议。我们要求与会者解决四个问题：

1．我们从三峡工程中学到了什么？2．未来50年及以后的预计影响是什么？3．如何减轻负面影响？4．如何改善未来的工程规划和管理？

2012年4月13-14日，正在研究三峡工程的12名中国专家[简历见附件C]分享了他们的评估意见。每场活动都有1名评论人对发言者提出的要点做出回应，并鼓励在场的听众提问，以促进自由的讨论和辩论。会议以所有发言者对主要议题的全体讨论做结。

the adaptive management cycle适应性管理周期

FIGURE 0-2

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SE OF THE SYM

POSIUM

LOCATION位置

Sandouping town, Yichang City, Hubei Province, China中国湖北省宜昌市三斗坪镇

DAM TYPE

大坝类型

181 meter high gravity concrete dam,crest elevation at 185 meters above sea level181米高混凝土重力坝，坝顶高程185米

INITIAL BUDGET最初预算

90.9 billion yuan (1993 levels)909亿元（1993年价格水平）

TOTAL COST总成本

203.9 billion yuan (1994 levels) including interest2039亿元（1994年价格水平），包括利息在内

POWER GOAL发电目标

84.7 terrawatt-hour per year (T Wh/yr) electric energy每年发电847亿千瓦时

ANNUAL POWER OUTPUT年发电量

100 T Wh in 20112011年为1000亿千瓦时

TURBINES涡轮机

32 x 700 MW32×700兆瓦

NAVIGATION GOAL航运目标

10,000 ton cargo fleet from Shanghai to Chongqing10,000吨船队从上海直达重庆

ANNUAL NAVIGATION年航运量

87,940 megatons (Mt) cargo in 20102010年为87,940兆吨货物

NORMAL POOL LEVEL正常水位

175 meters (m), reached on 26 October 2010175米，2010年10月26日达到

FLOOD CONTROL LEVEL防洪限制水位

145 meters145米

RESERVOIR AREA水库面积

1084 square kilometers (sq km)1084平方公里

RESERVOIR VOLUME水库容量

39 billion cubic meters 390亿立方米

ADJUSTMENT CAPACITY调节库容

20 billion cubic meters200亿立方米

DESIGN FLOOD设计洪水量

1,000 yr flood flow: 110,000 cubic meters per second (m3/s)千年一遇的洪水：110,000立方米/秒

ANNUAL RUNOFF VOLUME年径流量

450 billion cubic meters (based on 1956-1990 time series)4,500亿立方米（根据1956-1990年的时间序列）

AVG SEDIMENTATION RATE OF RESERVOIR

水库的平均泥沙沉积速度

164 to 178 Mt/yr (Yang Shi-Lun study)146 Mt/yr (Changjiang Sediment Bulletin)164-178兆吨/年（杨世伦的研究）；146兆吨/年（《长江泥沙公报》）

AVG TRAP EFFICENCYOF RESERVOIR

水库的平均泥沙拦蓄率

78% (Yang Shi-Lun study)74% (Changjiang Sediment Bulletin)78%（杨世伦的研究）；74%（《长江泥沙公报》）

RESETTLED POPULATION

移民数量

1.4 million (according to official estimates)1.9 million (according to Dai Qing)140万（官方估计）；190万（戴晴）

Yalong

Dadu

Min R

iver

Jialing River

Wu River

River

River

DONGTINGLAKE

POYANGLAKE

EAST CHINASEA

YANGTZE

SHANGHAI

three gorges dam

Yibin

Guiyang

Yichang

Yushu

Shigu

Pingshan

Wushan

Chongqing

Fengjie DatongWuhan

Nanjiang

Dam in Planning StageDam in Site Preparation Stage

Dam Under ConstructionDam Operational

200 km N

RESERVOIR AREA MIDDLE REACH LOWER REACH FRESHWATERESTUARY ESTUARY

对该工程的辩护以下列三个主要目标为重点：1. 防洪：保护长江中下游地区；2. 水电：每年发电847亿千瓦时； 3. 改善航运 使万吨船队可在上海和重庆之间运行。

张津生:“三峡工程综述”发言，2012年4月13日。

three gorges in context The justification for the project focused on three primary goals:

1. FlOOd cOntROl to protect the middle and downstream Yangtze,2. hydROpOWeR with 84.7 T Wh of energy generated annually,3. impROved navigatiOn to allow 10,000-ton cargo fleet to deliver

goods between Shanghai and Chongqinq. Zhang Jinsheng, ‘Overview of the Three Gorges’ presentation, 13 April 2012

TABLE 0-1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec

PingshanYichangQ

( x

1000

m3 /

s )

rese

rvoi

r w

ater

leve

l (m

)

JAN

FE

B

M

AR

A

PR

M

AY

JU

N

JU

L

A

UG

S

EP

O

CT

N

OV

D

EC

145

175

135

125

monsoon flood season

highest flow volumes

lowered water levels

三峡工程的背景

thRee gORges dam by the numbeRs

3

Yalong

Dadu

Min R

iver

Jialing River

Wu River

River

River

DONGTINGLAKE

POYANGLAKE

EAST CHINASEA

YANGTZE

SHANGHAI

three gorges dam

Yibin

Guiyang

Yichang

Yushu

Shigu

Pingshan

Wushan

Chongqing

Fengjie DatongWuhan

Nanjiang

Dam in Planning StageDam in Site Preparation Stage

Dam Under ConstructionDam Operational

200 km N

RESERVOIR AREA MIDDLE REACH LOWER REACH FRESHWATERESTUARY ESTUARY

The construction of Three Gorges Dam began in 1994. Between 2002 and 2010, a 660 kilometer reservoir filled behind the 181 meter dam, displacing at least 1.4 million people and transforming Asia’s longest river while generating approximately 100 billion kWh/yr of electricity -- 2.85% of China’s current electric power usage (2009, World Bank).

三峡工程的建设始于1994年。2002年至2010年之间，181米高的大坝蓄水形成了660公里长的水库，移置了至少140万人，并在每年发电约1000亿千瓦时——占中国当前用电量的2.85％（2009年，世界银行）——的同时，改变了亚洲最长的河流。

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SHIP LIFT

DOUBLE LANE FIVE-STEP

SHIP LOCKS

TURBINES

TURBINES

SLUICING GATESFLOW

FLOW

FIG 0-5 (lef t). Yangtze hydrograph and the seasonal adjustment of reservoir water levels at the dam. During the rainy season from April to September, water levels at the dam are lowered from a maximum height of 175 meters to 145 meters, allowing power generation at reduced capacity while making room for up to 20 billion cubic meters of f lood waters from Yangtze’s main stem. Source: adapted from Fan Xiao’s symposium presentation.

图0-5 长江水位图和大坝水库水位的季节性调整。在4-9月的雨季，大坝水位从175米的最高值被下调至145米，这使发电量下降，却为多达200亿立方米的长江干流洪水腾出了空间。来源：改编自范晓的研讨会发言。

FIG 0-4. Plan view of Three Gorges Dam components. Source: adapted from Zhang Jinsheng’s symposium presentation.

FIG 0-6 (above). Yangtze River Catchment and Dam Planning. At 6,418 km long, the Yangtze River is the longest river in Asia, third longest in the world. It f lows from west to east from the Tibetan Plateau (el. ~5,000 meters) to the East China Sea near Shanghai. Source: adapted from the Canadian International Development Agency Three Gorges Feasilibity Study of 1988 and research by Kristen McDonald, Pacif ic Environment and Leif Karlstrom, UC Berkeley.

图0-6 长江流域和水坝规划。长江全长6,418公里，是亚洲第一、世界第三长河。它从青藏高原（平均海拔约5,000米）开始，由西向东流入上海附近的东海。来源：改编自加拿大国际开发署1988年的“三峡工程可行性研究报告”以及太平洋环境组织的克里斯汀·麦克唐纳和加州大学伯克利分校的利夫·卡尔斯特罗姆的研究。

THREE GO

RGES IN CO

NTExT

Yalong

Dadu

Min R

iver

Jialing River

Wu River

River

River

DONGTINGLAKE

POYANGLAKE

EAST CHINASEA

YANGTZE

SHANGHAI

three gorges dam

Yibin

Guiyang

Yichang

Yushu

Shigu

Pingshan

Wushan

Chongqing

Fengjie DatongWuhan

Nanjiang

Dam in Planning StageDam in Site Preparation Stage

Dam Under ConstructionDam Operational

200 km N

RESERVOIR AREA MIDDLE REACH LOWER REACH FRESHWATERESTUARY ESTUARY

对水流的影响

图1-1 程晓陶展示的长江中下游防洪基础设施示意图。超过1亿人生活在位于宜昌三峡大坝以下140,000平方公里的洪水易发地区。长江干

流及其支流沿线的超过30,000公里的堤防，是包括水坝和滞洪区在内的防洪系统的一部分。

5session 1

“Any man who is adept at running a state should eliminate the five hazards. One is flood, one is drought, one is harmful weather including wind, storm, flog hail and frost, one is epidemic and one is pest. These are called the five hazards. Flood is the worst of the five hazards.”

Guanzi, 475-221 BC

IMPACTS ON FLOWS

洪水大约有1亿人生活在三峡大坝下游的洪水易发地区。程晓陶和张津生教授在他们的发言中翔实地讲述了长江洪水泛滥的悠久历史，强调减少洪灾是修建大坝的主要理由。水库调度反映了这种优先考虑（图0-5）。大坝有近200亿立方米的蓄洪库容，按照设计，它会在宜昌达到110,000m3/s的千年一遇洪水流量时，把大坝下游的洪峰流量降至80,000m3/s以下。当长江再次出现105,000m3/s（1870年的宜昌）的历史最大洪水时，大坝下游的流量会被降到71,500m3/s——接近1998年几乎漫过沙袋覆盖着的堤防的洪峰（图1-3）。根据程晓陶教授的说法，在2010年的洪水中，三峡大坝蓄洪使洪峰流量从70,000削减到了40,000m3/s，从而最大程度地减少了堤防沿线采取大规模应急措施的需要，突出了包括水坝、堤防和滞洪区在内的综合洪水管理系统的重要性。

据程晓陶教授说，来自三峡下游主要支流的洪水量可能是宜昌段长江干流的两倍。三峡大坝不可能解决长江的所有洪水风险。不能指望用单个的工程设施来解决长江全部的洪

FloodsApproximately 100 million people live in flood prone areas downstream of the Three Gorges dam. At the symposium, Professors Cheng Xiaotao and Zhang Jinsheng chronicled the long history of Yangtze floods and emphasized that reduction of flood hazards was the primary justification for the dam. Reservoir operations reflect this priority (Figure 0-5). With nearly 20 billion cubic meters of flood storage, the dam is designed to decrease the 1,000 year pre-project flood flow of 110,000 cubic meters per second (m3/s) at Yichang) to a peak release of 80,000 m3/s below the dam. A reoccurrence of the Yangtze’s largest historic flows of 105,000 m3/s (at Yichang in 1870) would be reduced to 70,000 m3/s, similar to the 1998 flood peak that nearly overtopped sandbag-covered levees (Figure 1-3). According to Cheng Xiaotao, during the 2010 flood, storage behind the Three Gorges Dam reduced peak flow from 70,000 to 40,000 m3/s, minimizing the need for massive emergency response along the levees and highlighting the reliance on an interconnected flood management system that includes dams, levees and detention areas.

5.4 billion m3

32 billion m3

6.8 billion m3

5 billion m3

Yichang DatongWuhan

Nanjiang

DONGTINGLAKE

POYANGLAKE

EAST CHINASEA

SHANGHAITAI HULAKE

MIDDLE REACH LOWER REACH FRESHWATER ESTUARY ESTUARY

Yangtze catchment boundary

Floodprone area

Flood detention capacity

Flood control levee 100 km N

FIGURE 1-1. Outline of f lood control infrastructure

in the middle and lower Yangtze as presented by Cheng xiaotao. Over 100

million people live within the 140,000 square kilometers of f loodprone areas below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang. Over 30,000 km

of levees line the mainstem Yangtze and its tributaries

as par t of a f lood control system that includes dams

and detention areas.

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水问题。他也提出了减轻洪水风险的其他途径。增加滞洪区可以创造潜在的生态效益，但就土地使用和发展压力而言，也会带来损害。例如，长江中至下游的漫滩湖现在能够提供额外的500亿立方米溢滞洪容量（图1-1）。然而，有许多人生活在洞庭湖和鄱阳湖的漫滩上，反对将这个区域全部用于滞洪与蓄洪的计划。1998年洪水以后，中国政府通过采取新的防洪政策 –“退田还湖，移民脱险”– 转向综合管理。根据官方规定，滞洪区只能作为农业用地，但人们迫于人口和经济压力，无视规定，在这些地区修建了工厂和住宅。在1998年洪水期间，荆江河段漫滩滞洪区内的30万居民被要求疏散——据程晓陶教授说，这是非常困难的。洪水过后，两百万人被迁移。

长江河床的下切反映出的是河道向新流动形态的调整（图1-2）。河道调整的不同阶段以不同方式影响洪水管理 – 有些是正面的，有些是负面的，但结果则是未知数。河道深度的最初增加会提高河流的泄水能力 – 这在数位发言者看来是积极影响。根据《三峡工程阶段性评估报告》（2010年），在未来50年，枝城两岸堤坝间河道的泄水能力可能会从56,700增加到64,000m3/s。由于河道调整，河床侵蚀预计会在下游继续发生。翁立达教授对此表示担忧：随着河床继续下切，包括数千公里堤坝在内的长江河岸可能不再稳固。长江荆江大堤沿岸（图1-3）的2,000-4,000万人的生命处于危险之中。尽管三峡工程旨在减轻来自大坝上游的洪水给中下游带来的洪水风险，但它对堤坝稳定的潜在影响事实上可能会增加风险。当被要求考虑地震引发的堤坝不稳时，周华伟教授承认河道下切可能会增加使下游堤坝的基础不稳定的风险，但这个问题还未被研究。陈中原教授承认侵蚀可能会对防洪带来风险，但他认为气候变化是比下切更值得注意的风险，因为预报警告将会有更频繁和更凶猛的洪水。

Professor Cheng Xiaotao pointed out that major tributaries downstream of Three Gorges could contribute flood flows up to twice that of the mainstem river at Yichang and that Three Gorges Dam was not designed to solve all the Yangtze’s flooding problems. No single structure can provide flood protection on its own. In looking for untapped sources of risk reduction, he suggested increasing flood detention areas with potential ecological benefits but also compromises in terms of land use and development pressures. In his case study, floodplain lakes on the mid to lower Yangtze currently provide an additional 50 billion cubic meters of overflow detention volume (Figure 1-1). Many people live within the floodplain of Dongting and Poyang lakes, however, and challenge plans to employ the full potential of these detention areas. After the 1998 flood, the Chinese government moved toward comprehensive management with the introduction of a new flood policy: “Return the land to the lake, move people out of harm’s way.” Land use within detention areas has been officially limited to agriculture, but population and economic pressures have ignored regulation and people continue to build factories and residences within the detention areas. During the 1998 floods, 300,000 people living in floodplain detention areas in the JingJiang reach were asked to evacuate – according to Professor Cheng, it was very difficult. After the flood, two million people were relocated.

The down-cutting of the Yangtze’s riverbed reflects the channel’s adjustment to a new flow regime (Figure 1-2). Different stages of channel adjustment will affect flood management in different ways: some positive, some negative and the balance is unknown. The initial increase in channel depth also increases the flow capacity of the river; a positive impact in the eyes of several speakers. According to the Periodic Reassessment Report for the Three Gorges Project (2010), the flow capacity of the river channel between the levees at Zhicheng may increase from 56.7 to 64 thousand m3/s over the next fifty years. River bed erosion is expected to continue downstream. In subsequent discussion, Weng Lida expressed concern that the river’s banks – including thousands of kilometers of levees – may destabilize. Along the Jingjiang levee of the Yangtze (Figure 1-3), 20 to 40 million peoples’ lives are at risk. While the Three Gorges project was designed to decrease flood risk to the lower and

图1-2 （A）建坝之前，长江将泥沙冲击到中下游（1），并季节性地维持着河道的深度和水位（2和3），包括漫滩湖的水位（4）。（B）建坝之后，输沙量减少（5）造成的下游河道下切高达13米（6），这使水位下降（7）。河道水位下降实际上“打开”了漫滩湖，使水流方向逆转（8），湖水流入长江河道。据范晓和程晓陶两位教授介绍，这些湖泊的水位下降给以前辽阔丰富的水生生物栖息地如今仅剩的残留带来了严重的生态系统影响。来源：改编自范晓的研讨会发言。

(A) Pre-Dam

(B) Post-Dam

YangtzeRiver

YangtzeRiver

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LAKE

(A) Pre-Dam

(B) Post-Dam

YangtzeRiver

YangtzeRiver

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FiguRe 1-2. (A) Prior to dam construction, the Yangtze River delivered sediments into middle and lower reaches (1), and seasonally maintained channel depth and water levels (2 and 3), including levels of f loodplain lakes (4). Af ter the dam construction (B), the reduction in sediment loads (5) caused downstream channel incision by up to 13 meters (6), lowering water levels (7). These lowered water levels in the channel ef fectively ‘unplugged’ the f loodplain lakes, reversing f lows (8) and draining lake waters into the Yangtze’s channel. According to Professors Fan xiao and Cheng xiaotao, the reduced water levels in the lakes have led to serious ecosystem impacts for these last remnants of a formerly vast and rich aquatic habitat. Source: adapted from Fan Xiao’s symposium presentation.

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季节性水流范晓教授介绍了2003-2010年间，三峡水库首次蓄水以后大坝下游水流量的急剧减少。由于水库拦蓄了泥沙，它排出了侵蚀下游河床的清水。根据《长江保护与发展报告2009》，在蓄水后的头四年内，荆江段的最大冲刷深度达到了13米（图1-2），超出原来的可行性研究所估计的5-7米。下泄流量减少与河道下切的共同作用导致了低水位和一连串影响：漫滩湖的低水位，使下游城镇供水的能力受到削弱，海水倒灌入河口以及中华鲟数量减少。与一些专家的意见相反，范晓教授认为并没有足够证据显示这些低水位是由降雨量减少引起的。

2008年，由于下游的低水位，将大坝蓄满175米以达到最大发电量的首次尝试被放弃了。此后，尽管面临着水库泥沙沉积增加和上游洪灾的顾虑，蓄水期依然提前到了三周之前的汛期——9月10日，而不是10月1日（图0-5）。2010年10月，水库达到了175米的目标蓄水发电水平，但根据范晓的说法，流入的泥沙却多出流出的2亿立方米。

范晓和程晓陶都对开发长江上生态结构丰富的漫滩湖造成的进一步影响表示担心。据程教授说，在1954-1998年期间，由于围湖造田，湖泊蓄洪量从大约1,000亿立方米减少到了100亿立方米（图1-4）。相比之下，三峡水库只增加了200亿立方米的蓄洪量——远远无法抵偿湖泊蓄洪量的损失。

洞庭湖和鄱阳湖是这些水势相连的漫滩湖中规模最大的，它们还在萎缩中的残存湖泊见证了栖息地的锐减。这两个湖泊养育着长江特有的淡水江豚，是世界上90％的白鹤冬季迁徙的中途停留地。大坝加剧了湖泊生态系统已经面临着的可怕威胁。据范晓说，当三峡水位在2006年10月首次上升至156米时，洞庭湖的入水量仅是同期平均流量的7％。由于水位下降，老鼠数量激增。当2007年洪水再次来袭时，老鼠逃到了周围的农田，毁掉了价值超过3亿元的农作物。同样，鄱阳湖曾经占地3,500平方公里，但到2012年时，其水面面积减少到了200平方公里。

范晓教授认为，由于三峡大坝的调控流量和

middle reaches from floods originating above the dam, levee instability may increase risks. With regard to earthquake-induced levee instability, Geophysicist Zhou Hua-Wei added that channel incision could increase the risk of earthquake-induced destabilization of the downstream levees, although the topic remains uninvestigated. In discussion, Chen Zhongyuan agreed that erosion could pose a risk to flood control, but considered climate change to pose a more significant risk than incision due to predictions of more frequent and more extreme flood events.

seasonal FlowsThe initial filling of the Three Gorges Reservoir between 2003 and 2010 drastically reduced flows downstream. Professor Fan Xiao explained how the reservoir trapped sediment and then released clear water, resulitng in erosion of the downstream riverbed. Within the first four years after impoundment maximum scour depth at JingJiang reached 13 meters, according to the Yangtze Conservation and Development Report of 2009 (Figure 1-2), exceeding the original feasibility study estimates of five to seven meters. The combined effects of reduced flow releases with channel down-cutting led to lower river stages and a cascade of impacts: lower water levels in floodplain lakes, impaired water supply intake facilities for downstream towns, difficult navigation, salt water intrusion into the estuary, and decreased Chinese sturgeon populations. Contrary to some experts, Professor Fan Xiao found no sufficient evidence that these lower river stages were caused by reduced rainfall.

In 2008, initial attempts to reach maximum power output by filling the dam to 175 meters were abandoned due to low water levels downstream. Thereafter, the filling period shifted three weeks earlier into the flood season (September 10 rather than October 1) despite concerns of increased reservoir sedimentation and upstream flooding hazards (Figure 0-5). In October 2010, the reservoir reached the 175 meter target power

FIGURE 1-3Photos of JingJiang Levee

along the Yangtze River. During the f loods of 1998

(second through four th photos), massive emergency

ef for ts to bolster levee protection with sandbags were required to prevent

levee over topping. Source: symposium presentations by

Zhang Jinsheng (photo 1), Cheng Xiaotao (others).

图1-3 长江荆江大堤图。在1998年洪水（第二至

四张图片）期间，为防止漫堤，需要进行大规模

的应急工作，以用沙袋来加固堤防。来源：张津生（图1）和程晓陶（其他）

的研讨会发言。

图1-4 在过去的400年里，长江中下游数百个广阔、水势相连的漫滩湖被开沟、抽干、筑堤或填塞，以便养育不断增长的人口。如程教授提供的这些示意图所示，由于泥沙沉积和围湖造田，洞庭湖从19世纪初的6,000平方公里缩小到1959年的4,350平方公里。到1995年时，洞庭湖的面积仅有2,625平方公里。由于面临着类似的形势，鄱阳湖的湖面面积到2012年时已减少了近95％。来源：程晓陶的研讨会发言。

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“Return the land to the lake, move people out of harm’s way.”

pool level, yet sediment inflow remained greater than outflow by 200 million cubic meters, according to Fan Xiao.

Both Fan Xiao and Cheng Xiaotao expressed concern about further impacts of development on the Yangtze’s ecologically rich floodplain lakes. Dongting and Poyang lakes are remnants of the largest of these lakes. According to Professor Cheng, between 1954 and 1998 flood storage volumes of these lakes decreased from roughly 100 billion cubic meters to 10 billion cubic meters due to land reclamation (Figure 1-4). Three Gorges Reservoir has added 20 billion cubic meters of flood storage.

The lakes’ shrinking surface areas and water volumes have led to drastic habitat loss, exacerbating threats to the lakes’ ecosystems which support the Yangtze’s endemic freshwater finless porpoise and winter migration for 90% of the world’s Siberian cranes. According to Fan Xiao, as water levels at Three Gorges Reservoir first rose to 156 meters in October 2006, Dongting Lake received only 7% of the season’s average flow volume. As water levels dropped, rat populations skyrocketed. When floodwaters returned in 2007, rats decamped into surrounding farmland, damaging crops worth over 300 million yuan. Likewise, Poyang Lake once covered 3,500 square kilometers, but its surface area was reduced to just 200 square kilometers by 2012.

Professor Fan expected that lowered water levels in the Yangtze will continue due to the dam’s regulated flows and the incising channel. Cheng Xiatao suggested that restoring the area of river-linked lakes may enhance flood storage and reduce hazards downstream. Local governments have proposed constructing dams at the lake outlets to control water levels and outflows to the river, but speakers Fan Xiao and Weng Lida cautioned that because of the lake’s ecological importance and the complexity of flow interactions, independent scientific studies and alternative assessments must first be explored.

Upstream of Three Gorges, China is planning and

constructing hundreds more dams (Figure 0-6). According to Professor Fan the refill volume for all the planned reservoir storage is 1.4 to 1.5 times the Yangtze’s runoff from October to November when reservoirs need to be refilled to generate hydropower, suggesting that the river will dry up before reaching the lowest dams. He reported that upper tributaries, such as the Min River, have already dried up. Given the minimum discharge requirements for Three Gorges Dam, Professor Weng Lida calculated that the Yangtze could fill only one reservoir the size of Three Gorges, whereas many are planned. Professor Chen Daqing countered that if minimum environmental flow requirements were established and enforced for the entire system, then a cascade of dams could be constructed and operated. Professor Fan recommended scaling down Yangtze hydropower development goals in order to avoid the risks of a dry Yangtze River.

被侵蚀的河道，与长江低水位关联的问题会继续存在。程晓陶教授提出，恢复与长江相连的湖泊区域可以增加蓄洪量并减少下游的灾害。地方政府计划在湖泊出口建造水坝以控制水位，但是发言者范晓和翁立达告诫说，由于湖泊的生态价值和水流相互作用的复杂性，首先必须进行独立的科学研究和替代性评估。

中国计划在三峡上游建造数百个水坝（图0-6）。根据范晓教授的说法，当水库需要重新蓄满水发电时，全部拟建水库重新蓄满需要的水量是长江10月到11月的地表径流量的1.4-1.5倍。这意味着长江会在到达最下游的水坝之前就枯竭了。他补充说，诸如岷江等上游支流已经枯竭。考虑到维持发电和航运对于三峡大坝的最低泄水量要求，翁立达教授认为尽管许多水库已做规划，但长江只能满足1座三峡这样规模的水库。陈大庆教授反驳说，如果全流域的最小环境流量需求能够确立并得到实施的话，就可以修建并运行一系列水坝。范晓教授建议缩小长江水电开发目标，以避免长江干涸的风险。

FIGURE 1-4. Over the past 400 years, hundreds of large, interconnected f loodplain lakes along the middle and lower Yangtze River were ditched, drained, embanked or f illed to suppor t a growing human population. Dongting Lake, depicted in these maps from Professor Cheng, decreased from 6,000 square kilometers in the early 19th century down to 4,350 square kilometers in 1959 due to sedimentation and reclamation. By 1995, Dongting Lake only covered 2,625 square kilometers. Facing similar circumstances, Poyang Lake has lost nearly 95% of its sur face area as of 2012. Source: Cheng Xiaotao’s symposium presentation.

17th c. 1910s 1930s 1950s 1970s

“Riverbed erosion is extending downstream. The question is time; it is a long window before we see the full effects.”

Chen Zhongyuan, panel discussion at the symposium, 14 April 2012

图2-1（右） 在宜昌河段，平均输沙量从522,000,000吨/年（1950-1991年）减少

至228,000,000吨/年（2002年）。一旦开始建坝，平均

输沙量就急剧下降到了54,00,0000吨/年。来源：杨

世伦的研讨会发言。

9session 2 GEOMORPHIC IMPACTS

reservoir sedimentationProfessor Yang Shi-Lun’s recent analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir sediment budget showed that in the period 2003 to 2010 approximately 172 Mt/yr was captured in the reservoir, a rate significantly lower than originally predicted but higher than reported in earlier studies. Professor Yang explained that even prior to the Three Gorges Dam, soil conservation practices, other dams, and climate change had reduced sediment inflows to Yichang (Figure 2-1). Between 1950 to 1991 sediment inflow to the reservoir averaged 522 Mt/yr but had dropped to 228 Mt/yr by 2002.

Professor Yang estimated the reservoir’s sediment trap efficiency as higher than predicted, averaging 78% of inflowing sediment. Since construction began, more than 50 meters of sediment deposited in the wider sections of reservoir whereas no deposition occurred in narrow gorge sections (Figure 2-2).

Below the dam, the average sediment discharge dropped to 50 Mt/yr between 2003 and 2010, significantly lower than the original predictions that ranged from 168 to 104 Mt/yr according to Yang. He attributed most of this reduction to sediment deposition in the reservoir although the long-term trend of reduced sediment inflow was also a significant factor.

水库泥沙沉积根据杨世伦教授最近的分析，在2003-2010年之间，三峡水库的泥沙拦蓄量平均为1.72亿吨/年，这个水平明显低于原来的预测，但高于早期研究中的发现。在三峡工程之前，其他水坝和许多水土保护措施已经减少了流向宜昌（位于大坝下游40公里处，图2-1）的泥沙。在1950-1991年之间，流向宜昌的泥沙平均为5.22亿吨/年，但到2002年时下降到了2.28亿吨/年。

据杨世伦教授评估，水库泥沙拦蓄的效率高于预测值，平均值为流入泥沙的78％。自从开建以来，超过50米厚的泥沙沉积在了水库较宽阔的部分，但在狭窄的峡谷部分却没有出现沉积物（图2-2）。陈中原教授补充说，硝酸盐、磷酸盐、硅酸盐及碳的含量受增加了的水库泥沙拦蓄的影响，导致藻类大量繁殖，而这会影响供水和渔业健康。

根据杨世伦教授的说法，在大坝下游，宜昌段2003-2010年间的平均输沙量下降到了0.50亿吨/年，显著低于原来预计的1.68亿吨/年, 至1.04亿吨/年。他认为，尽管泥沙流入量减少的长期趋势也是个重要因素，但筑坝以后它的大部分减少应该归因于水库内的泥沙沉积。

据 杨 世 伦 教 授 说 ，排 出 大 坝 的 泥 沙 的颗 粒 大 小（ 4 微 米 ）明 显 小 于 流 入 水库 的 泥 沙 的（9 微 米），几 乎 完 全 是 粉质 粘 土 。粗 粒 和 细 粒 泥 沙 都 受 到 大 坝拦 截 ，但 只 有 细 粒 泥 沙 排 到 了 下 游 。

地貌影响

FIGURE 2-1 (right). At Yichang, sediment discharge decreased

from an average of 522 Mt/yr (1950-91) to 228 Mt/yr (in 2002). Once dam construction began,

the average sediment discharge dropped dramatically to only

54 Mt/yr. Source: Yang Shi-Lun’s symposium presentation.

“河床侵蚀在下游蔓延。现在的问题是时间；我们在很长时间之后才能看到它的全部影响。”陈中原在研讨会小组讨论中的发言，2012年4月14日

ReseRvOiR cROss-sectiOns

图2-2 建坝之前和之后的水库截面图。来源：杨世伦的研讨会发言。

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The grain size of sediment discharged from the dam was significantly smaller (4 µm) than the inflow to the reservoir (9 µm), almost entirely silty clay. Both coarse and fine-grained sediments were trapped in the reservoir, but only fine-grained portions escaped downstream. Concentrations of nitrate, phosphate, silicate and carbon were influenced by the increased sediment capture, leading to algae blooms that affect water supply to Chongqing (population 20 million) and the health of fisheries in the reservoir.

middle and lower yangtzeThe middle reach and Dongting lake are geologically subsided features that capture about one third of the river borne sediments (Figure 2-4), according to Professor Chen Zhongyuan. Before dam construction, seasonal monsoons drove erosion and deposition patterns. During the dry season, from October to May, the middle reaches eroded about 55 Mt/yr followed by deposition during the flood season, with most deposition in Dongting Lake. On an annual basis, the middle reaches aggraded by about 90Mt/yr.

According to Professor Chen’s analysis of the Yangtze’s post-dam suspended sediment carrying capacity, the middle reach has changed from a depositional to an erosional regime. Scouring of the middle reach now provides a source of sediment for the lower reach and estuary. Eventually the channel will erode to an equilibrium and this

地貌影响

FIGURE 2-2. Pre- and Post-Dam cross sections through the reservoir. Source: Yang Shi-Lun’s symposium presentation.

GEO

MO

RPHIC IMPACTS

FIG 2-1. Yangtze Long Prof ile

AT YICHANG

FIG 2-1. Yangtze Long Prof ile

FIG 2-3. Sediment discharge trends at Datong, 1950-2010. Without the Three Gorges dam, sediment discharge to the estuary between 2003 and 2010 would have been 233Mt/yr instead of the 152Mt/yr observed. Source: Yang Shi-Lun’s symposium presentation.

modi�ed from Changjiang Sediment Bulletinmodi�ed from Changjiang Sediment Bulletin

modi�ed from Changjiang Sediment Bulletin

图2-3 1950-2010年大同的输沙量走势图。如果没有三峡大坝，2003至2010年之间往河口方向的输沙量本该是233,000,000吨/年，而不是观测到的152,000,000吨/年。来源：杨世伦的研讨会发言。

图2-4 从青藏高原的源头到在上海附近的东海的长江纵剖面。千百年来，长江的两个沉积盆地不断失去泥沙。在建坝之前，每年汛期1/3的泥沙都沉积在中游河段。来源：改编自陈中原的研讨会发言。

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source will diminish. The timeframe to reach this equilibrium is uncertain. In the meantime, the impacts of these changes include loss of sediment to replenish agricultural fields and thus increased use of fertilizers. Erosion in the middle reach has scoured the base of levees, a risk to flood control with high costs for reconstruction, according to Professor Chen.

The relative impacts of sediment mining, a major factor reducing sediment loads in rivers in other developed nations, are relatively unknown. The Yangtze River Authority has limited the amount of river sediment mining to somewhere between 40 to 50 Mt/yr according to Professor Yang, but Professor Chen suggested that this may not be enforced and the actual amounts remain unknown.

CHanges in tHe estuary and CoastDue to upstream watershed changes, the river’s sediment discharge to the estuary was declining before the Three Gorges Dam was constructed. According to Professor Yang Shi-Lun, suspended sediment concentrations have decreased by 55% at the upper end of the estuary (Datong) due to sediment capture in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Professor Yang estimated that without the Three Gorges Dam, sediment discharge to the estuary between 2003 to 2010 would have been 152Mt/yr instead of the 81Mt/yr observed.

长江中下游河流形态的变化陈中原教授解释说，长江中游河段和洞庭湖得到长江携带泥沙的约1/3，从而在地质学上具有沉积特征（图2-4）。在建坝以前，季风促成了侵蚀和沉积模式。从10月到次年5月的旱季，中游河段的侵蚀约为55,000,000吨/年，在随后的汛期里则是45,000,000吨/年的沉积，大部分沉积物都到了洞庭湖中。就全年的情况来说，中游河段大约淤积90,000,000吨/年。

根据陈中原教授对建坝后长江的悬浮泥沙承载能力的分析，中游河段从沉积形态变成了侵蚀形态。现在，中游河段受到的冲刷成了下游河段和河口泥沙的来源。最终，河道会被侵蚀到某种均衡状态，来自这里的泥沙将会减少，不过达到这个均衡状态的时间表是不确定的。同时，这些变化会产生若干影响，这包括能够补充农田肥力的泥沙的减少和肥料使用因此增加。根据陈中原教授的说法，中游河段的侵蚀冲刷掉了高堤的地基，这是一个防洪风险，不过重建的成本也很高。

采砂在其他发达国家是降低河流输沙量的重要因素，相对而言，其在长江的相对影响还鲜为人知。据杨世伦教授讲，长江水利委员会（Yangtze River Authority。应该是指长江委，但它的英文应为：Changjiang Water Resources Commission——译者注）已将河道采砂量限制在50,000,000吨/年，但陈中原教授指出，这项规定可能并没有得到执行，而实际的开采量仍然是个未知数。

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FIG 2-4. Yangtze Long Prof ile from headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau to the East China Sea near Shanghai. The two subsiding basins of the Yangtze have receded sediments for thousands of years. Prior to the dam, one third of annual f lood season sediment was trapped in the middle reach. Source: adapted from Chen Zhongyuan’s symposium presentation.

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Field measurements revealed a three to four year lag in declining suspended sediment concentrations between Datong and the coast. Coincident with these changes, the subtidal delta front has shifted from a process of rapid accretion (1.9 cm/yr from 1998-2002) to rapid erosion (-1.4 cm/yr from 2003-2010). Professor Yang estimates the dam has accelerated the erosion rate by about three times.

In the intertidal areas, wetland accretion has slowed from about ten to three cm/yr. Professor Yang attributed 35% of this decline to the Three Gorges Dam. Mudflats have also transitioned from accreting to eroding. Professor Yang expected that the dam’s impact on estuarine morphologic change will continue over a long period of time, requiring continuous monitoring.

With changes to the river’s flow regime and the reservoir’s sediment trapping, the dam has cut off much of the sediment supply to downstream reaches. The morphological response has been dramatic. Depositional reaches are now losing sediment. Channel erosion, due to increased sediment carrying capacity of clear water flow discharges, has increased from the dam all the way to the estuary. Even though the dam is now full, the changes to channel, estuarine and coastal morphology will slowly ripple through the system over a very long time. This adjustment process is largely unstoppable and a source of many cascading impacts: some deemed positive, others negative, but most uncertain.

河口和海岸的变化由于流域上游的变化，修建三峡大坝之前河流向河口的输沙量就在下降。三峡大坝进一步减少了来自长江的泥沙供应。据杨世伦教授说，在2003-2010年期间，三峡大坝使大通（位于河口上端）的输沙量减少了81,000,000吨/年（图2-3）。现场测量显示大通与海岸之间悬浮泥沙浓度的下降存在着3-4年的延迟。与这些变化同步的是，水下三角洲的前缘由冲积推移（1998-2002年为1.9厘米/年）变成了快速的侵蚀（2003-2007年是-4.1厘米/年）。据杨世伦教授估计，大坝使侵蚀速度增加了大约3倍。

在潮间带，湿地的增加大约从10厘米/年减缓到了3厘米/年。杨世伦教授认为35%的减少量应归因于三峡大坝。泥滩也从增加变成了受侵蚀。杨世伦教授认为大坝对河口形态变化的影响会持续很长的时间，这需要持续监测。

三峡大坝截断了向下游河段的大量泥沙供应，给长江的流动形态和水库的泥沙拦蓄带来了变化。这种形态上的变化是引人注目的。沉积河段现在正在丧失泥沙。由于下泄清水的泥沙承载能力增加，从大坝直至河口的河道侵蚀都加剧了。虽然大坝现在可以蓄满水，但在很长的时间里，它带给河道、河口甚至河岸形态的变化将会慢慢波及到整个流域。这个调整过程在很大程度上是无法停止的，也是许多相应影响——有些被认为是正面的，另一些是负面的，但多数还不确定——的根源。

“the middle reach has changed from a depositional to an erosional regime.”

中游已经由沉积形态改变至侵蚀形态

Source: Anna Serra Llobet

图3-1 1985年滑坡之前（上）和之后（下）的新滩。

地质灾害13

session 3“In order prevent a natural disaster, it is essential to conduct complete geological studies before beginning the design of any civil engineering project.” – Edoardo Semenza, 2000

GEOLOGIC HAZARDS

landslides and roCkFallsWithin Three Gorges, the underlying geologic layers consist of soft sandstone, shale, and limestone mixed with layers of hard metamorphic, igneous rock. In his presentation, Professor Wang Fawu explained that the largest slides often occur at the boundaries between hard and soft layers. Rockfalls most often occur in exposed limestone. Both slides and rockfalls can displace large volumes of water, creating large and potentially deadly waves. The greatest challenge, he revealed, has been their unpredictability. History has shown that the terrain in the reservoir area is prone to major landsliding events.

According to Professor Wang, our ability to predict these events has greatly improved over the last 30 years. As an example, the massive Xintan slide of 1985 totally destroyed an ancient village and produced a 50 meter high wave, but monitoring led to effective prediction of the slide and safe evacuation of all residents. The massive wave, however, damaged boats and killed ten people on the river.

Over the last 10 years, research has focused on mechanisms of landslide failure. Studies confirm that changing water levels in the reservoir – both rising and falling – activated landslides. For example, the initial filling to 135 meters in 2003 activated many landslides due to toe erosion in the reservoir area. In July of that year, the monoclinal slopes underlying the Qianjiangping landslide were destabilized by rising water levels, causing a rapid failure and a local 30 meter high wave. Twenty-four people were killed. Elsewhere, movement of the circular sliding surface underlying the Shuping landslide was hastened by the lowering of the reservoir. Scientists correlated reservoir draw-down rate to geologic deformation rate. This knowledge combined with a review of local geologic conditions has helped to

滑坡和岩崩三峡的地下地质层由松软的砂岩、页岩和石灰岩组成，并掺杂着坚硬的变质岩和火成岩岩层。汪发武教授在发言中解释说，最大的滑坡通常发生在硬质和软质岩层的交界地带。岩崩主要发生在裸露的石灰岩地带。滑坡和岩崩都可以排挤出大量的水，形成可能是破坏性的大涌浪。需要注意的是，最大的挑战是它们的不可预测性。历史记录显示库区的地形很容易发生重大滑坡事件。

汪发武教授说，我们预测这些事件的能力在过去30年中有了显著的提高。例如，1985年的新滩大滑坡彻底摧毁了一座古老的村庄，形成了50米高的涌浪，但由于监测而对滑坡进行了有效的预报，并让全部居民都安全疏散了。巨浪毁掉了船只，并在江上造成10人死亡。

过去10年的研究集中在具体的滑坡体失稳机制上。研究证实，水库水位的变化 – 无论升降 – 引起了滑坡。例如，由于库区的山脚受到侵蚀，2003年初次蓄水到135米时造成了许多滑坡。该年7月，千将坪滑坡体下面的单倾斜坡由于水位上升而失稳，很快造成了滑坡并在该地激起了30米高的涌浪，24人遇难。在其他地方，树坪滑坡体下面的圆弧滑动面的运动由于水库水位下降而加速。科学家们认为水库水位的升降速度与地质变形的速度有关。这一认识与对当地地质条件的考察相结合，促进了对相对风险水平的了解，并可能改进大坝的运行方式，以减少风险并保障公共安全。不过，汪发武教授也强调必须承认滑坡位置、速度和大小的基本不可预测性。

随着三峡水库蓄水，对滑坡灾害的担忧增加了。政府拨出15亿元的专款，作为那些最可能出现阻塞河流或毁掉村庄的滑坡的地方的调查监测和缓解形势之用。在库区2,490处已确认的滑坡点中，581处被认为有潜在的危险，包括一些像万州市这样由于水库而迁出的当地人民被再次迁移的地方。

FIGURE 3-1. xintan before (top) and af ter (below) the slide of 1985.

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understand relative risk levels and could improve dam operations for risk reduction and public safety. At the same time, Professor Wang emphasized, the fundamental unpredictability of landslide location, rate and magnitude must be recognized.

With the filling of the Three Gorges Reservoir, concern over landslide hazards has increased. The government earmarked 1.5 billion yuan for research monitoring and mitigation for highest priority locations where slides could block the river or destroy villages. 2,490 confirmed landslide sites were identified in the reservoir area, of which 581 have been deemed potentially dangerous, including some sites like Wanzhou City where local people have been resettled.

With increasing population, economic development and the resettlement of the region’s residents onto unstable slopes, Professor Wang commented that the risk to people from landslides has been growing rapidly in recent decades. In his opinion, mitigating hazards requires installation of monitoring and warning systems. Citizen monitors can often help. Countermeasures such as drainage, piles, and slope protection can be effective but are also expensive. While landslides lack the energy and spatial scale of earthquakes, their risks are less amenable to engineering solutions such as improved building construction standards. For future reservoir planning, both case studies of historical landslide disasters and expanded sensor distribution with real-time monitoring can help identify and measure hazards. In many cases, it is very difficult to differentiate a creep versus a slide. Further scientific research can help us assess risk levels for each deformation site.

During discussions Professor Wang was asked whether landslide-induced tsunami waves could overtop the Three Gorges Dam – as occurred at the

汪发武教授说，由于增长着的人口、经济发展以及当地居民被安置到不稳定的斜坡上，最近数十年来民众面临的滑坡风险急速增加了。他认为减轻灾害需要装置监测和预警设备。群测群防的办法通常也有帮助。排水、打桩和斜坡保护之类的对策都很有效，但成本也很高。对于未来的水库规划来说，对过去滑坡灾害的案例研究，以及进行实时监测的探测设备的扩大覆盖，能够帮助识别和衡量危险。在许多情况下，区分蠕变和滑坡是非常困难的。进一步的科学研究有助于我们了解每个变形地点的风险水平。

在讨论中汪发武教授被问到，滑坡引发的海啸波是否可能像1963年在意大利维昂特大坝发生过的那样，漫过三峡大坝。他解释说，由于水库在接近大坝时变宽了，任何涌浪基本都会消散，因此这是不大可能发生的。然而在狭窄的峡谷里，大涌浪会造成重大危险，这需要更多的公众注意和教育。绘制滑坡险情地图是可以做的事情，但还没有得到协调。如果在国家层面组织进行的话，险情地图能帮助地方政府和公众了解风险水平。

“为了防止自然灾害，在开始规划任何土木工程之前，进行全面的地质研究是必不可少的。” – 艾多尔多·赛门萨，2000年

FIGURE 3-2. Landslide photos along the Three Gorges reservoir.

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图3-2 三峡水库沿岸的滑坡图片。

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15Vaiont Dam in Italy in 1963. He explained this was unlikely as a 30 meter high wave would dissipate as the reservoir widened near the dam downstream. In the narrow gorges, however, large waves present significant, yet relatively unacknowledged, hazards that deserve more public attention. Hazard mapping of landslide risk is possible but has not been coordinated. If organized at the national scale, hazard maps could improve public understanding of risk levels.

eartHquakesProfessor Zhou Hua Wei shared his assessment of seismic potential of the Three Gorges Reservoir area according to new seismological data that he obtained using mobile seismographs. He found an abundant increase in the number of reservoir-induced earthquakes (RIE) and landslides since reservoir filling started in 2003; with the largest earthquake (magnitude 4.6) occurring in 2008 (Figure 3-3) at a depth around six to eight kilometers. Otherwise, the reservoir-induced quakes are frequent, but low magnitude and widely distributed.

According to Professor Zhou, the seismic potential of a region is a function of the maximum length of the major regional fault that can be

地震周华伟教授分享了他根据来自流动地震仪的新数据，对三峡地区内地震可能性的评估。他发现自2003年水库开始蓄水以来，水库诱发地震和滑坡在数量上显著增加。最大的地震（4.6级）发生在2008年（图3-3），震源深度大约是6-8公里。除此之外的水库诱发地震也很频繁，但震级较小且分布广泛。

周华伟教授认为，某地区的地震可能性是可被同步激活的主要区域性断层的最大长度和孕震区的强度的函数。他解释说，断层长度可以通过测绘和估算断层的空间分布来获得，而根据历史地震资料、地球动力学分析和地震波速分布，则可以确定孕震区的强度。

三峡大坝和水库所在的黄陵背斜是个古老而广阔的断裂杂岩，有不连续的主要断层和脆弱的地壳强度。靠近大坝的两个主要断层新华和仙女山都是不连续的，有不同的地层倾斜，因此不太可能被同时激活。由于这些原因，周华伟教授认为这个地区可能不足以孕育出大地震（震级超过7级），尽管历史和地质状况表明该地区的活动断层可能会产生中等规模的地震（震级小于6.5级）。

由于该地区地壳脆弱，存在着断层，而且地形起伏较大，即便是小规模的地震也可能会引

FIG 3-3 Ear thquakes in reservoir region since

2000. Major faults are in red and ear thquakes are

green crosses. Since water impoundments star ted

in 2003, the two largest ear thquakes in the region occurred in Zigui in 2008, about 40 km upstream of

the dam, at magnitudes of 3.8 (September) and 4.6

(November). Source: Zhou Hua Wei’s symposium

presentation.

图3-3 2000年以来库区的地震。红色表示主要

断层，绿叉代表地震。自2003年蓄水开始以来，该地区两次最大的地震均于2008年发生在大坝上游约40公里的秭归，震级分别为3.8级（9月）和4.6级（11月）。来源：周华伟的研讨会发言。

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activated simultaneously and the strength of the seismogenic zone. He explained that the fault length was assessed by mapping faults and assessing their spatial distribution, while the strength was assessed from historic earthquake data, geodynamic analysis and seismic velocity distributions.

The Three Gorges Dam and its reservoir are located on the Huangling anticline, an old and widely fractured complex with discontinuous major faults and weak crustal strength. The two major faults closest to the dam, the Xin-Hua and Xian-Nu-Shan, are discontinuous with different dips and are therefore unlikely to be activated together. For these reasons Professor Zhou assessed that this area may not have sufficient strength to sustain great earthquakes (greater than 7 magnitude), although history and geology reveal that the region’s active faults may generate moderate-size earthquakes (less than 6.5 magnitude).

Due to the region’s weak and fractured crust with high topographic relief, even small earthquakes may trigger severe landslides. To date, seismologic study of the project has focused directly on the reservoir area. For more complete risk assessment, Professor Zhou recommended that studies should expand upstream and downstream. Other critical areas for further research included: (1) observational studies to understand spatial and temporal frameworks of seismic events, (2) the large-scale cumulative impacts of upstream dams on earthquake risk, and (3) the potential impact of earthquakes to levee stability, especially in eroded channels downstream of the dam.

发严重的滑坡。迄今为止，对三峡工程的地震学角度的研究完全集中在库区。为了更全面的风险评估，周华伟教授建议将研究向上下游扩展。其他尚待深入研究的重要领域包括：（a）了解地震活动的空间和时间结构的观察性研究；（b）上游水坝对地震风险的大规模累积影响；（c）地震对堤坝稳定性的潜在影响，尤其是在大坝下游河道受到侵蚀的地方。

FIG 3-4 (below) Water level and reservoir-induced ear thquakes (RIE) in the Three Gorges region since reservoir f illing began in 2003. RIE’s correlated to f luctuations in water levels and peaked in 2008 about two years af ter the “normal impoundment cycle” star ted in Fall 2006. Source: Zhou Hua Wei’s symposium

FIG 3-5 (below) Discussion at the symposium integrated lessons learned from dam construction outcomes in the U.S. with perspectives from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and responses from Chinese speakers who saw value in examining the legacy of infrastructure projects in the U.S. Source: Anna Serra Llobet

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图3-4 2003年水库蓄水开始以来的水位和水库诱发地震。水库诱发地震与水位波动有关，并在2006年秋季进入“正常蓄水周期”大约两年之后的2008年达到顶峰。来源：周华伟的研讨会发言。

图3-5 (下) 研讨会上的讨论综合了美国陆军工程兵团在美国大坝建设上的教训, 以及中国发言者的观点. 中国发言者觉察到借鉴美国基礎設施历史的价值.

“Man must conquer nature.” Mao Zedong, Red Book, Speech February 5, 1940

环境影响“人定胜天。”

毛泽东：1940年2月5日的演讲，载《红宝书》

PREDICTED POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS对环境的正面影响

PREDICTED NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS负面影响

Reduction of siltation in downstream floodplain lakes减少了下游漫滩湖的淤积

Increased soil erosion due to displaced people forced to resettle on steep farmlands由于移民只能重新安置在陡峭的农田上，加剧了水土流失

Reduction in CO2 and NO emissions减少了二氧化碳和一氧化氮的排放

Deterioration of water quality in the reservoir水库水质下降

Creation of a reservoir fishery建立了有益的水库渔场

Adverse impact to aquatic ecosystems downstream including deterioration in habitat for endangered fish species对下游水生生态系统造成不利影响，包括濒危鱼类栖息地的恶化

Changes in erosion and deposition downstream affecting wetlands and salt water intrusion of the estuary下游侵蚀和沉积物变化影响湿地和河口海水倒灌

Sediment deposition in the Chongqing reach adversely affecting water quality and infrastructure重要的文化和历史资源被淹没

Impacts on geologic hazards, local climate and public health对地质灾害和局地气候的影响

TABLE 4-1. Predicted environmental impacts of Three Gorges Dam in the f inal approved EIA of 1992. Source:

Weng Lida’s symposium presentation.

表4-1 最终批准的1992年EIA报告预测到了的三峡大坝的环境影响。来源：翁立达的研讨会发言。

17session 4 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

planning For environmental impaCtsThe Three Gorges Dam’s Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was the first for a water infrastructure project in China. According to Professor Weng Lida, the anlysis was initiated in 1979 as a special study on environmental impacts of the dam. The final EIA was jointly compiled and approved by the government in 1992. It predicted both positive and negative impacts to the environment (Table 4-1), including broad and immense ecosystem impacts over long time periods and wide spatial scales. The trade-offs appeared clear: the middle reaches reaped the most social benefits with reduced risk of flood damages while the inundated reservoir area and resettlement process posed the greatest environmental risks. Environmental protection measures were planned and ecological monitoring started in 1996.

Professor Weng Lida shared an overview of environmental impacts after the construction of the dam. As expected, the dam greatly altered the hydrologic regime of the Yangtze. While the dam was credited with reducing impacts of the moderate-sized July 2010 flood, the immediate environmental

环境影响规划翁立达教授解释说，三峡工程的环境影响评估（EIA）是中国水利基础设施工程中的首例。最初是作为对大坝环境影响的专门研究在1979年进行的，最后的EIA报告1992年由政府联合编制并批准。它预测了大坝对环境的正负两方面的影响（表4-1）。总体而言，它预测在相当长的期间和较广的空间范围内，大坝会对生态系统造成广泛而巨大的影响。工程的利弊是很明显的：由于洪灾风险降低，中游地区获益最多，而与此同时，被淹没的库区和移民安置过程造成了严重的环境风险。在1996年，环境保护措施有了规划，生态监测也开始进行。

翁立达教授总结了建坝后的环境影响。正如预期的那样，大坝极大地改变了长江的水文形态。尽管大坝为减轻2010年7月的中等规模洪水的影响做出了贡献，但它对环境的直接影响是很严重的，其累积影响才刚刚开始显现（表4-2）。例如，水质退化就威胁着重庆2,300万居民的供水。

因为许多环境和社会影响都被预计到了，鉴于在上游支流上选址建坝作为替代方案，本会

PREDICTIONSTABLE 4-1 预测

“人定胜天。” 毛泽东：1940年2月5日的演讲，载《红宝书》

OBSERVED NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

Serious water quality deterioration in the reservoir. Massive algae blooms in backwater and tributaries, primarily due to nutrient and pollutant loadings and aggravated by low velocities in the reservoir.水库水质严重下降。主要由于营养物和污染物负载，水库回水和支流中藻类大量繁殖；这种状况由于水库水流低速而加剧。

Adverse impacts to fisheries downstream due to altered hydrologic regime, lower water te mperatures and over-saturated gas content in released water. Common carp fry populations have decreased by 90% since reservoir filling began in 2003,水文形态变化、水温降低以及大坝泄水中气体含量过于饱和对下游渔业产生了不利影响。自2003年水库蓄水开始以来，普通鲤鱼鱼苗种群减少了90％。

Increased fog and extreme weather (both drought and storms).雾天和极端天气（干旱和暴雨）增加。

Erosion of river channels and bank collapse downstream of the dam with adverse impacts on spawning habitats, water supply intake structures, and navigation.大坝下游的河道侵蚀和河岸坍塌对鱼类产卵栖息地、供输水设施、航运和漫滩湖水位下降产生了不利影响。

Thousands of landslides and debris flows in resettlement area在移民安置区发生了许多滑坡和泥石流事件

Lowered water levels in Dongting and Poyang lakes with potential for serious ecological impacts including extinction of threatened species

TABLE 4-2. Observed environmental impacts of Three Gorges Dam since construction began in 2002.Source: Weng Lida’s symposium presentation.

图4-1 长江的渔获量长期以来呈下降态势。来源：陈大庆的研讨会发言。

表4-2 2002年观测到的三峡工程自开建以来的环境影响。来源：翁立达的研讨会发言。

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impacts have been broad with cumulative effects just beginning to emerge (Table 4-2). For example, degraded water quality threatens the drinking water supply for Chongqing’s 23 million people.

Because many of the environmental and social impacts were predicted, Robert Goodland questioned the dam’s site selection when alternative upstream tributary locations would have decreased the impact on threatened migratory fish populations. He proposed that a series of small tributary dams combined with reforestation and regulation of cultivating steep slopes would yield a lower cost solution to flood risk reduction. The careful siting of a dam is probably the single most effective way to boost benefits and reduce costs and impacts. Goodland stated the site of Three Gorges Dam was finalized well before the environmental and social assessment began.

Goodland also questioned the recent infusion of 40 billion yuan to mitigate environmental impacts when these preventative investments could have been made during the planning process. He explained the purpose of an EIA: to balance trade-offs (i.e.

减少对濒危洄游鱼类族群的影响，评论人罗伯特·古德兰对大坝的位置选择提出了疑问。他提出，一系列小规模的支流水坝与在陡坡上重新造林和减少耕作相结合，可以以较低的成本减轻供水风险。在他看来，坝址的选择对于提高水坝的效益及降低其成本和影响是很关键的。根据罗伯特·古德兰的说法，三峡大坝的位置在环境和社会评估开始前就完全定案了。

古德兰也质疑最近为缓解环境影响而投入的400亿元资金，因为在施工前的规划过程中的前期投资原本可以防止这些影响。在他看来，EIA的目的是平衡利弊（亦即是通过流域管理还是基础设施工程来防洪），内化社会和环境成本，以及为工程建设决策（即工程位置、坝高、鱼类和泥沙通道设施）和工程竣工以后的运作（即泄水的时间安排，以便配合鱼类产卵和泥沙冲洗）提供资

FIG 4-1 Fish catch on the Yangtze River has been declining over the long term. Source: Chen Daqing’s symposium presentation.

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ENTAL IMPACTS

FISHING CATCH (1949 - 1999)

TABLE 4-2 OBSERVATIONS 观察

19 flood control via watershed management versus engineered infrastructure), to internalize social and environmental costs, to inform project construction decisions (i.e. project location, dam height, fish and sediment passage infrastructure) and to project operation (i.e. flow release schedules to support spawning, sediment sluicing) once construction is complete. Professor Weng Lida acknowledged the need for more comprehensive environmental planning processes that include basin-scale spatial planning and project operation, not just an initial evaluation to usher the project through political approval.

impaCts on FisHeriesWith a focus on freshwater resources, Professor Chen Daqing emphasized that the EIA forecasted grave impacts on the historically rich “treasure house” of aquatic species that inhabit the Yangtze. The river once supported over 370 fish species including rare endemics such as the Chinese paddlefish and two species of river sturgeon (Figure 4-4) as well as the economically important four Chinese carp species (Figure 4-3). Between 1954 and present the fishing catch has declined from 427 to 100 thousand tons annually (Figure 4-1). Since the dam’s construction, endemic fish have moved upstream to new habitats, replaced by different species of lentic fish in the reservoir. With blocked fish passage, migratory populations have decreased, fish size has further decreased, the proportion of young fish has increased, and the fate of threatened species has worsened. More than ten species have been declared extinct including the Chinese river dolphin (Figure 4-4). With Three Gorges and Gezhouba Dams (construction completed in 1988), blocked fish passage has led to the precipitous decline of migratory populations such as the sturgeon.

Within the reservoir area, the impacts of changes to fish populations appear mixed with declines of lotic dependant fish upstream but significant increase in the reservoir fishery. Downstream of the dam, carp spawning habitat has been adversely affected and estuarine fisheries threatened by changing temperatures and salinity. The Chinese mitten crab, the most important commercial fish of the Yangtze according to Professor Chen Daqing, declined to one tenth of its population after the dam was constructed.

料。翁立达教授赞同更全面的环境规划程序，这包括全流域范围的空间规划和工程运行，而不只是一个为工程获得政治批准开路的初步评估。

对渔业的影响当话题聚焦到淡水资源时，陈大庆教授强调说，EIA预见到了大坝对栖息在长江中的历史悠久而丰富的水生生物“宝库”的影响。长江曾经哺育过370多种鱼类，包括诸如白鲟和两类河鲟（图4-4）之类的珍稀特有鱼类，以及具有重大经济价值的四种中国鲤鱼（图4-3）。在1954-1999期年，渔获量从427,000吨下降到了100,000吨（图4-1），并且鱼体和种群也减小了。自大坝建设以来，以前上游到新栖息地的特有鱼类被水库中的各种静水鱼类取代了。洄游鱼类种群减少了，鱼体进一步变小，幼鱼比例上升了，濒危物种的命运也更难预料。包括白鳍豚（图4-4）在内的10多种鱼已被宣布灭绝。三峡和葛洲坝大坝（1988年建成）都是鱼类洄游的障碍，因此导致了鲟鱼等洄游种群的减少。

在库区内，大坝对鱼类种群的影响显得比较复杂。在大坝下游，鲤鱼产卵栖息地受到了不利影响，河口渔业也受到了变化着的温度和咸度的威胁。陈大庆教授说，长江重要经济鱼类大闸蟹在大坝建设以后数量下降。为了缓解生态风险，陈大庆建议制定大坝环境流量调控，执行渔业法律和政策，强化育苗场以及监测各种影响。

来自美国陆军工程兵团的评论人斯科特·尼科尔森质疑了诸如鱼道之类的事后投资的价值。（他说在美国被筑坝的河流上，鱼道并没有改善洄游鱼类种群的减少状态）

To mitigate ecologic risks, Professor Chen suggested enacting environmental flow regulation at the dam, enforcement of fisheries laws and policies, intensification of fish hatcheries, and monitoring of impacts.

Discussant Scott Nicholson of the United States Army Corps of Engineers questioned the value of after-the-fact investments such as fish ladders – which have not significantly improved the status of declining migratory fish populations on dammed rivers in the United States.

图4-3 四种著名的中国鲤鱼。来源：陈大庆的研讨会发言。

图4-4 在长江内发现的部分濒危物种。来源：陈大庆的研讨会发言。

图4-5 水生生物和鸟类的重要栖息地——漫滩湖——图片。来源：范晓的研讨会发言。

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Black carp Mylopharyngodon piceus Ctenopharyngodon idellusGrass carp

Silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix Bighead carp Aristichthys nobilis

Chinese sucker

Chinese paddlefish Chinese sturgeon

River sturgeon

Chinese River Dolphin Lipotes vexillifer

Finless Porpoise Neophocaena phocaenoides

FIG 4-3. Famous four Chinese carp. Source: Chen Daqing’s symposium presentation.

FIG 4-4. Some of the threatened and endangered species found within the Yangtze River. Source: Chen Daqing’s symposium presentation.

FIG 4-5 Photo of f loodplain lake, critical habitat for aquatic and avian species. Source: Fan Xiao’s symposium presentation.

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session 5SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

eConomiCsCosts of the Three Gorges Dam rose from 1992 estimates of 57 billion yuan to nearly 450 billion yuan as of today -- nearly an order of magnitude increase. How did costs rise so much higher than original government estimates? Guo Yushan’s submitted paper1 presents several answers.

At the time of the dam’s approval by the National People’s Congress of China on 03 April 1992, the project’s static budget was initially estimated at 57 billion yuan. The static budget does not include interest charges (reflecting the opportunity cost of capital) or inflation. The dynamic budget does reflect these costs. State subsidies and monopoly control protected the Three Gorges Dam project from the accountability of market discipline and public oversight. This state-contrived economic structure allowed the state-owned China Three Gorges Corporation to become highly profitable while the costs to taxpayers and ratepayers substantially increased. For example, Yangtze Power which took over key assets including the turbines and generators without the liabilities associated with the dam, is now listed on the stock market where it gained 39 billion yuan from electricity sales in 2007. According to Guo Yushan, subsidized capital without the attendant liabilities led to runaway costs. The Three Gorges Dam project received cheap and guaranteed capital from a variety of sources: a state-created bank loaned 17% of the total project cost at controlled low interest rates; an ongoing and increasing tax on electricity (charge per kilowatt-hour) throughout China funded 45% of the project; profits from the Gezhouba Dam; and a refund of the value added tax (VAT) paid for by the Three Gorges Corporation.

Meanwhile, Three Gorges’ monopoly powers guaranteed revenues from captive customers who are required to pay 2 cents per kWh more for Three Gorges’ electricity (at a price that is 4 times higher than the official rate) than for power from other dams.

经济郭玉闪 在他的论文中引用资料介绍了三峡工程的成本如何由中国全国人民代表大会1992年4月3日批准的570亿元，增加到如今的将近4,500亿元——几乎是原来的成本估算的8倍。他解释了三峡工程的真实成本为何远远高于中国政府的官方估算的原因。

该工程获得全国人大批准时，它的静态投资被估算为570亿元。静态投资不包括价格指数（反映物价变动的幅度）、利息费用（反映资本的机会成本）、人民币与外币之间的汇率以及其他相关因素。动态投资则体现这些成本。国家补贴和垄断控制使三峡工程不受市场规律和公众监督的约束。这种由国家规划的经济结构使得国有的中国长江三峡集团公司（原中国长江三峡工程开发总公司，2009年9月27日更名）可以在纳税人的支出大幅增加时，获取高额利润。例如，中国长江三峡工程开发总公司2002年成立了中国长江电力股份有限公司并使它成功上市。然后，从2003年开始，每有发电机组投入运行，三峡总公司就把它出售给长江电力。截止2007年末，三峡总公司通过这种方式获得了389亿元的收入。然而，出售发电机组的这些收入并没有回到三峡工程的投资中，以减轻三峡工程建设基金的负担，而是用于投资金沙江上游的新水电工程。

郭玉闪说，没有相应债务的补贴资金导致成本失控。三峡从各种渠道获得了有保障的便宜资金。这些渠道包括：作为国家政策银行之一的国家开发银行以被控制的低利率提供了占官方估算的2039亿元工程动态概算的17%的贷款；一项几乎向全国的电力消费者按每千瓦时征收的不断增加的电力附加费，在1992年和2007年之间提供了工程主体部分，即枢纽工程和移民工程成本的45％；葛洲坝的利润；对三峡总公司的增值税退税。

同时，三峡的垄断力量使它能够从没有选择余地的消费者那里获取利润——这些消费者得为来自三峡的电力支付高出其他水坝电力至少2分/每千瓦时的价格。由三峡大坝引发的长江流域的引人注目的变化——三峡下游

1. Guo Yushan, an invited speaker from Beijing-based Transition Institute who was not permit ted to leave China, submitted a paper detailing his analysis of the dam’s total costs.

1. 郭玉闪来自北京传知行社会经济研究所，是受邀的发言者，但他被禁止出境，因此提交了一篇详细分析工程的总成本的论文。

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Expenses associated with remediation of problems, such as poverty among migrants, pollution, and geological instability requiring the resettlement of an additional 300,000 people at a cost of some 100 billion yuan, are borne by ordinary citizens or local governments, and remain off the Three Gorges books. The costs to the economy as a whole from the dramatic changes to the Yangtze watershed induced by the Three Gorges Dam – reduced water flows downstream of Three Gorges, lost fish stocks, suspended shipping, and subsidence at Shanghai – are only now beginning to be counted. These externalities, though generally unaccounted for, are significant and growing.

In his efforts to calculate comprehensive costs, Guo Yushan suggested that if there was effective public oversight of the Three Gorges Dam project and disclosure of its finances, the revealed costs could be even greater.

publiC aCCess to inFormationAn essential part of a post-project assessment for any major infrastructure investment is an economic assessment to compare the expected costs with the actual costs. To do this, scholars need details of the project’s actual costs. Ren Xinghui described his use of the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Open Government Information to obtain cost data for the Three Gorges Dam from the five state agencies responsible for the project: the Three Gorges Project Construction Committee of the State Council (TGPCC), the China Three Gorges Corporation, the Ministry of Finance, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), and the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC). Ren reviewed the responses and decisions issued by the five public bodies and then appealed the decision by the Ministry of Finance through the courts. Finally, he concluded that China’s legal system failed to uphold the rights of Chinese citizens to secure information about the costs of the Three Gorges Project, making public oversight of China’s largest infrastructure investment and, therefore, a truly

减少了的水流量、消失的鱼群、暂停的航运以及上海的沉降——带给整个经济的代价，现在才开始被认识到。这些外部效应虽然总体上尚不明确，却是非常显著的，并且正在增加。

作为其计算综合成本的尝试的结果，郭玉闪提出，如果有对三峡工程的有效公众监督及其财务状况的公开，显示出的成本可能会更大。

公众知情权将预期成本和实际成本进行比较的经济评估，是任何重大基础设施投资的后工程评估的重要内容。要做到这一点，学者们需要三峡工程实际成本的全部细节。任星辉讲述了他利用《中国人民共和国政府信息公开条例》以从负责工程的5个国家机构——国务院三峡工程建设委员会（TGPCC）、中国长江三峡集团公司、财政部、国家电网公司（SGCC）和国务院国有资产监督管理委员会（SASAC）——获取三峡工程的成本数据的经历。任星辉检查了这5个公共机构做出的答复和决定，然后对财政部的决定向法院提起了诉讼。最后他得出结论说，由于中国的法律制度没能维护中国公民获取有关三峡工程成本的信息的权利，使得对这个中国最大的基础设施投资的公众监督是不可能的，并因此导致不可能对这个工程做出真正全面的后工程经济评估。

社会影响陈国阶教授谈到，在建设三峡大坝以前，三峡适合耕种的滩地如何维持着其祖先可以追溯到一种古老的“惊人的”文明的数百万人的生计。陈国阶认为，决策者为了压缩成本并使工程的批准顺畅，“简化”了至少140万人的强制移民的复杂工作。在设计阶段，精确的人口调查并不是优先考虑的事情。高达1/3的被迫迁移的人并没有被计算在内，因为根据官方的登记政策，他们根本不应该在那里。

与国家修建大坝和水库的需求相比，维持一个独特、长期存在的族群的农业，被认为是较低价值的土地使用。中国仅规定了国

图5-1 三峡水库周围的陡峭山地。这里安置着由于大坝蓄水、家园被淹而被迁移的成百万人。来源（从上到下）：探索国际、萨莉、 拉尔·毕罗及陈国阶。

FIGURE 5-1. Photos of the steep lands surrounding Three Gorges reservoir where millions of displaced people were relocated as the dam was f illed and their homes were f looded. Sources (from top): Probe International, Sally, Lal Beral, Chen Goujie.

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PREDICTED POSITIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS对环境的正面影响

PREDICTED NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS负面影响

Flood threat reduction in the densely populated middle reaches of the Yangtze below the dam. Specifically raised the level of flood protection of the main Jingjiang levee system from one in ten year to one in 100 year protection.减少了大坝以下人口密集的长江中游地区的洪水威胁

Loss of farmland due to inundation水库淹没减少农田

Submergence of important cultural and historic resources重要的文化和历史资源被淹没

Prevention and control of Schistosamiasis due to reduction in flood inundation downstream由于下游水患减少，预防和控制了血吸虫病

Impacts on geologic hazards, local climate and public health对地质灾害和局地气候的影响

Improved navigation in the reservoir and downstream of the dam改善了库区航运

Sediment deposition in the Chongqing reach adversely affecting water quality and infrastructure重要的文化和历史资源被淹没

Provision of potential water source for transfers to Northern China为南水北调提供备用水源

TABLE 5-1 PREDICTIONS

23 comprehensive post-project economic assessment of the project, impossible.

soCial impaCtsProfessor Chen Guojie described how prior to the dam, the arable bottomlands of Three Gorges supported the livelihoods of millions of people whose roots trace to an ancient ‘spectacular’ civilization. Chen Goujie assessed that decision-makers ‘simplified’ the complex task of the forced migration of at least 1.4 million people in order to keep costs low and streamline project approval. During the design phase, accurate demographic surveys were not a priority. Up to one third of the oustees were not counted because under official registration policies, they should not have been there.

The farming that supported a distinct, long-standing ethnic community was deemed a lower value land use than the state’s need for a dam and reservoir. China defines only two types of land ownership, state or collective. As tenants of state-owned land, the people had no say. As a nation, China took over the land and sought to expeditiously move people out of the way without a realistic plan for their continued livelihood.

Based on his many years of research, Professor Chen described the consequences of the Three Gorges forced resettlement. The great gap between the compensation given and the amount required left 1.4 million citizens with a greatly reduced standard of living and no long-term prospect for improvement of their plight (Figure 5-2).

Today, arable land per person has dropped from 0.8 mu to 0.63 mu with inferior quality and increased distance from transportation facilities and markets. While the original cost estimates of resettlement were significantly

家所有和集体所有两种土地所有权。作为国有土地的使用者，民众没有发言权。而作为国家的中国接管了这些土地，并力图尽快为工程迁出当地人民，却没有为他们的长远生计制定务实的计划。

基于多年的研究，陈国阶教授讲述了三峡强制移民的后果。所给补偿和需求额之间的巨大差距使得140万民众的生活标准大为降低，并且使他们的困境的改善没有长远的前景（图5-2）。

如今，人均耕地从0.8亩下降到了0.63亩，并且其质量较差，与交通基础设施和市场的距离也更远了。尽管移民的最初成本估算明显不足，然而，三峡工程一旦得到全国人大的批准，其成本就攀升了近6倍，陈国阶教授因此说它是一个典型的“钓鱼工程”。在中国，为了使水坝工程获得批准，主管部门采取“早期宣布投入少量资金，然后不断追加投资”的筹资方式——也就是“放长线钓大鱼”。由于贪腐官员可以侵吞移民资金而不受追究，政府投资的移民资金从来没有到过许多移民手中，这使水库移民变贫困了。移民家庭的收入下降了20％。这些家庭被迫放弃了河边的平地，而去遍及整个峡谷的陡峭地带耕作。41％的耕地现在都位于25度以上的斜坡上，面临着滑坡的严重威胁。在新建的城镇中，商业基础设施依然空白，也缺乏经济活动和投资所需要的关键性的人口密度。该地区毫无经济前景，因此成了人口外迁的一个重要源头。600万人（图5-2）为了寻找工作从库区迁到了东部城市。孩子和他们不能为该地区的生产力做贡献的祖父母及残疾亲人们一起被留了下来，造成了陈国阶教授所说的“畸形社会”。

陈国阶教授说，负责移民的机构对这项高度复杂的工作抱着一种“原始的”的看法。普通移民被剥夺了基本权利，并且在三峡工程中，其人道安置的费用是首要的压榨对象。作为“国家工程”，三峡工程的目标凌驾于任何个体土地使用者使用其财产的权利之上。国家当局将责任转移给了地方政府，地方政府就成了工程引起的损害的替罪羊。

预测

PER CAPITA GDP (YUAN)

OBSERVED POSITIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS正面影响

OBSERVED NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS

Reduction in the flood peak of the July 2010 flood to non-damaging levels把2010年7月洪水的洪峰降低到了非破坏性水平

Erosion of river channel could undermine flood protection levees.河道侵蚀可能会破坏防洪堤坝

Erosion of river channels and bank collapse downstream of the dam with adverse impacts on spawning habitats, water supply intake structures, and navigation.大坝下游的河道侵蚀和河岸坍塌对鱼类产卵栖息地、供输水设施、航运和漫滩湖水位下降产生了不利影响。

Increase in shipping in the reservoir area due to improved navigation由于航运得到改善，库区航运增加

Thousands of landslides and debris flows in resettlement area在移民安置区发生了许多滑坡和泥石流事件

500 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity generated发电5000亿千瓦时

Major saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze estuary affecting water diversions up to Datong长江口大量海水倒灌，上至大通的引水都受到影响

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underestimated, once the project was approved by the National People’s Congress, the costs climbed nearly six-fold in what Professor Chen called a classic “fishing project.” In order to get approval for dam projects in China, the government authorities applied the following finance method, “small bait catches big fish,” where they announced a minimal amount at first, then replenished unceasingly. The increase in the government funded resettlement budget made few improvements for migrants because, in many cases, corrupt officials pocketed resettlement funds, leaving reservoir evacuees impoverished.

Incomes of migrant families have dropped by 20% and their incomes are often lower than that of their hosts. Families abandoned their riverside flatlands to farm in steep conditions throughout the gorges: 41% of cultivated land is now on slopes greater than 25 degrees with grave threats of landslides. In new towns, commercial infrastructure

remains empty, lacking the critical population density needed for economic activity and investment. With little economic prospect, the region is now a major source of outmigration: some six million people have moved to eastern cities in search of jobs. The youngsters left behind with their grandparents and disabled relatives cannot contribute to the region’s productivity creating what Professor Chen called “a lopsided society.”

The government’s oversimplified view of this highly complex task left migrants in a helpless situation where, without rights, they bore (and continue to bear) the social and financial burdens of uncovered costs. Because the Three Gorges Dam project was deemed to be in the national interest, it superceded any individual land user’s claim to property. Moreover, as a “national project” the Three Gorges authorities delegated responsibilities to local governments who became scapegoats for the harm caused.

图5-2 库区居民与社会其他人群之间的收入差距。来源：陈国阶的研讨会发言。

FIGURE 5-2. Income gap between people of the reservoir area versus other por tions of society. Source: Chen Guojie’s symposium presentation.

TABLE 5-2 OBSERVATIONS

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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS1. wHat Have we learned From tHree gorges dam?SIGNIFICANT FLOOD HAZARDS REMAIN DOWNSTREAMThe Three Gorges dam reduces high flow stages from floods originating above the reservoir. Downstream, however, increasing floodplain development faces risks from floods originating on lower tributaries and degradation of other components of the flood management system, such as flood overflow areas or levee stability.

SEDIMENT CAPTURE IS CHANGING THE RIVERCapture of sediment in the Three Gorges Reservoir has significantly reduced sediment discharge into the river and estuary downstream. This has initiated major geomorphic changes that include river bed erosion, isolation and draining of overflow areas, lowering of water table, erosion of estuarine mudflats and decrease in suspended sediment concentrations.

GEOMORPHIC CHANGE DRIVES ECOLOGIC IMPACTThe major changes in the sediment budget and flow regime from the reservoir filling and on-going operation have initiated changes in wetland, riverine, estuarine and coastal habitats downstream, adversely affecting fish populations.

LANDSLIDES CORRELATE TO RESERVOIR LEVELThe mechanisms of slope failure in the reservoir area are now better understood and correlated with changing reservoir levels.

SOCIAL IMPACTS UNDERESTIMATEDThe number of involuntarily relocated people surpassed original estimates. These citizens have experienced severe adverse social and economic impacts. The population of the surrounding area, including those who were not relocated, has also been adversely affected.

PREDICTED IMPACTS EXTERNALIZED IN DECISION PROCESSThe original EIA of 1992 predicted many of the project’s physical, ecologic and social impacts, yet had no apparent effect on key decisions about dam location, reservoir size and operation. The full costs of these impacts were not incorporated at the time of project planning, delaying allocation of government funds and stalling implementation of mitigation measures.

COSTS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATEDThe original cost estimates of the dam did not include interest charges, financing subsidies or increases in mitigation costs.

COSTS AND BENEFITS COMPARTMENTALIZEDThe costs for environmental and social mitigation are being paid for by central or local government organizations or by private citizens. They are not internalized in the electricity generation revenues paid to the Three Gorges Corporation.

1. 我们从三峡工程中学到了什么？下游仍有重大的洪水灾害

三峡大坝降低了来自水库以上的洪水的高峰水位。然而，在下游，日益增加的漫滩开发面临着源自下游支流的洪水，以及洪水管理系统的组成部分，诸如溢洪区或堤防稳定性等的退化所引起的风险。

泥沙拦蓄正在改变长江和河口

三峡水库的泥沙拦蓄明显减少了向下游河流和河口的输沙量。这引起了包括河床侵蚀、溢洪区的孤立、地下水位下降、河口泥滩侵蚀和悬浮泥沙浓度降低等在内的重大地貌变化。

地貌变化造成生态影响

水库蓄水和持续运行导致的在泥沙供应和流动形态上的重大变化，在下游湿地、河岸、河口及沿岸栖息地引起了对鱼群有负面影响的变化。

滑坡灾害与水库水位有关

库区坡身失稳的机制现在得到了更好的理解，并与变化着的水库水位联系了起来。

社会影响被低估

非自愿移民的数量超过了原来的估计。这些居民遭受了严重不利的社会经济影响。包括那些没有迁移的人在内的周边地区的民众，也受到了不利影响。

预期影响在决策过程中未受重视

最初的1992年EIA报告预测到了许多该工程的自然、生态和社会影响，但对有关大坝选址、水库规模和运行的关键决定并没有明显的作用。这些影响的全部代价在工程规划当时没有体现出来，耽搁了政府资金的配置，并拖延了缓解措施的执行。

成本被严重低估

工程最初的成本估算不包括利息费用、各种财政补贴的成本以及缓解措施方面的成本的增加。

成本和效益脱钩

环境和社会影响的缓解措施的成本正在由中央或地方政府机构，或者普通公民承担。它们没有被内化到三峡集团公司获得的发电收益中去。

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2. wHat impaCts expeCted over tHe next 50+ years?SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CHANNEL AND ESTUARYRiver bed erosion – already reported at 13 m – will continue until a new equilibrium channel slope is reached that balances the diminished sediment inflow with the erosive power of the river flow. The ultimate extent and time period to achieve this new equilibrium state is unknown.

RISK OF LOW RIVER STAGES DOWNSTREAMThe large number of hydro dams being constructed or planned poses significant risk of extremely low river stages on the mid to lower Yangtze during the post-flood reservoir refilling season in the late summer and fall.

ECOLOGIC IMPACTS LIKELY TO WORSENAs the river channel continues to adjust to sediment capture in the reservoir, the loss of key fish and wildlife habitats will continue, placing more stress on the survival of endangered species and commercial fisheries. Migrating, and rare and endangered fish populations are predicted to decrease; reservoir fish population will increase.

GEOLOGIC HAZARDS UNLIKELY TO DIMINISHThe potential for landsliding into the reservoir is unlikely to change over the next 50 years. There is a significant potential for a moderate reservoir-induced earthquake to occur in the next 50 years that could trigger major landsliding events.

FLOOD HAZARD UNCERTAINTYThree Gorges dam is one component of a flood management system for the lower Yangtze that relies on levees, overflow detention areas and land use restrictions to limit flood damages.

“TGP plays an important role in f lood control system of the Yangtze River,” noted Professor Cheng Xiaotao. “The f lood control benefit of TGP should be added” noted Professor Weng Lida.

While the operation of the reservoir in the 2010 flood demonstrated its ability to significantly reduce flood stages, it is unclear whether dam-induced scour of the river bed in future larger floods could compromise the integrity of levees protecting populated areas and limit the effectiveness of flood overflow storage areas.

RESERVOIR LIFETIME EXTENDEDWith reductions in sediment inflow already observed and further reductions likely due to upstream dam construction, the rate of reservoir sedimentation will likely be significantly reduced.

CONTINUED ADVERSE SOCIAL IMPACTS Given the depressed economy in the area surrounding the reservoir, migration to eastern cities will likely continue. Landslide instability over the next 50 years could require additional large numbers of involuntary resettlement.

2. 未来50年及以后的预计影响是什么？河道和河口的显著变化

河床侵蚀—已被记录的是13米—将继续下去，直到达到新均衡状态的河道坡度，使减少了的泥沙流入和河道水流的侵蚀力保持平衡为止。达到这种新的均衡状态的最终程度和时期是未知的。

下游低水位的风险

在夏末和秋季的汛后水库重新蓄水季节，大量正在建设或规划的水电大坝，形成了长江中至下游极低水位的明显风险。

生态影响可能恶化

由于河道继续受水库泥沙拦蓄的影响，主要鱼类和野生动植物的栖息地的减少将会持续，这给濒危物种和商业渔业的生存带来了更重的压力。洄游的和珍稀、濒危的鱼类族群据预测将会减少，水库的鱼类族群将会增加。

地质灾害不大可能减少

发生进入水库的滑坡的可能性在未来50年不大可能改变。能引起重大滑坡事件的中度水库诱发地震的发生可能性在未来50年也非常大。

洪水灾害的不确定性

三峡大坝是依靠堤防、溢滞洪区以及限制土地使用以减少洪水损害的长江下游洪水管理系统的一个组成部分。

程晓陶教授强调：“三峡工程在长江防洪系统中发挥重要作用。”翁立达强调：“三峡工程的防洪效益应该被扩大。”

尽管水库的运行在2010年的洪水中展示了它有效降低洪水水位的能力，但目前尚不清楚，大坝所引起的河床冲刷是否会在未来更大的洪水中，损害保护着人口密集地区的堤防的完整性，并削弱蓄洪区的效果。

水库寿命延长

由于已观测到的泥沙流入的减少，以及其可能因上游大坝建设而进一步减少，水库泥沙沉积的速度可能会明显降低。

持久的负面社会影响

鉴于水库周围地区不景气的经济，移居东部城市很可能会持续下去。未来50年中滑坡的不稳定局面可能会产生额外的大量非自愿移民。

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3. How to mitigate adverse impaCts?IMPLEMENT ‘THREE GORGES POST PROJECT PLAN’In general the speakers supported actions specified in the 18 May 2011 State Council Statement. However, it was noted that full implementation of these measures would likely cost significantly more than the 112B yuan allocated.

ADAPT TO GEOMORPHIC CHANGEThe dramatic change in the river’s sediment budget cannot be mitigated. Consequently, the large-scale changes in the river, estuary and coast will require implementation of extensive adaptation measures including downstream levee strengthening and changes in irrigation and water supply infrastructure.

PRESERVE AND ENHANCE FLOODPLAIN LAKESOverflow areas provide important wetland habitat for fish and wildlife. Through preservation and restoration, their value for flood protection and ecosystems can be enhanced.

WATER QUALITY TREATMENTImprovement in reservoir water quality will require massive investments in wastewater treatment for the Municipality of Chongqing.

LANDSLIDE HAZARD WARNING SYSTEMWith the high cost of landslide stabilization, few locations can be effectively stabilized with structural measures. Investment in warning and evacuation systems can significantly reduce hazard potential from landslides induced by reservoir water level changes or storms. Earthquake-induced landsliding hazard risk remains a concern.

FISHERY MITIGATIONPartial mitigation for fishery losses can include establishing nature reserves for fish habitat, artificial releases of migrating fish below the dam, enforcement of fishing regulations, modifying reservoir releases to support fish spawning and enhancement of reservoir fisheries.

FULLY COMPENSATE AFFECTED PEOPLECompensation should be based on the principle that no one should be worse off economically than before dam construction, fully recognizing people’s rights to land and livelihoods.

3. 如何减轻负面影响？实施“三峡工程后续规划”

总体而言，发言者都支持2011年5月18日的国务院文件详细规定的措施。不过他们也注意到，全面实施这些措施的成本可能会远高于1,120亿元的拨款。

适应地貌变化

长江泥沙供应的引人注目的变化无法减缓。因此，面对河流、河口和河岸的大规模变化，需要实施包括加固下游堤防与改变灌溉和供水基础设施在内的广泛的适应措施。

保护和改善漫滩湖

溢洪区为鱼类和野生动植物提供了重要的湿地栖息地。通过保护和恢复，可以提高它们在防洪和生态系统中的价值。

水质处理

改善水库水质需要在重庆市的污水处理上进行大量投资。

滑坡灾害预警系统

由于滑坡山体的加固成本很高，只有少量的滑坡点可以通过工程措施有效地加固。在预警和疏散系统上的投资可以显著降低水库水位变化或暴雨引发的滑坡的危害可能性。但地震引发的滑坡灾害的风险仍然没有改变。

渔业缓解措施

减轻渔业损失的部分措施包括：为鱼类栖息地建立自然保护区，在大坝下游人工放养洄游鱼类，实施渔业法规，调整水库泄水以配合鱼类产卵，以及改善水库渔业。

充分补偿被影响者

补偿应当基于民众的经济状况不应比建坝之前更糟的原则，并充分承认民众对他们所失去的土地的权利。

“It is generally known that the large scale dam construction in China is later than many developed countries, including USA, for decades. All the issues and challenges the TGP and other large dams have to face today appeared in USA for decades, too. We hope to learn more experiences, especially the lessons from USA, to deal with these problems more ef fectively. This must be the core value in the proceedings of Three Gorges Symposium which may lay a good basis for cooperation in the future,” noted Professor Cheng Xiaotao.

“众所周知，中国的大型水坝建设比包括美国在内的许多发达国家落后几十年。三峡工程和其他大型水坝今天要面对的所有问题和挑战，在美国也存在了几十年。我们希望学习更多的经验，尤其是从美国汲取教训，以更有效地处理这些问题。这应当成为三峡工程研讨会会议记录的核心价值，这可能会为将来的合作奠定良好的基础。”——程晓陶教授

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4. How Can Future proJeCt planning improve?PLAN FOR BASIN-SCALE CUMULATIVE IMPACTS Human impacts thoughout the Yangtze watershed are adding to the observed geomorphic and ecological impacts from existing dams. Throughout the symposium, speakers echoed the sentiment: “the entire Yangtze River basin needs comprehensive management.” Integrated planning decisions must consider dams, water diversions, reservoir management, protection of natural areas, basin-wide land management, preservation of flood detention areas and levee maintenance.

INVEST IN ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT Nearly all speakers agreed that monitoring and assessment must continue, not only to inform Three Gorges Dam operations, but for planning each additional dam in the basin.

INTEGRATE FLOOD & LAND MANAGEMENTFlood control reservoirs are one of many tools in a management system aimed at reducing flood risk. If implemented in isolation they have the may inadvertently increasing flood risks. Effective flood management requires integrated land use control and reservoir operation.

INTEGRATE RESERVOIR OPERATIONWith additional hydropower development in the basin and the consequent conflict for sufficient flow, integrated basin-scale plans for reservoir operation can provide flood storage and also ensure sufficient water for downstream purposes, including fish habitat.

RESETTLEMENT COST ALLOCATIONUnderestimated social costs of the dam are now being paid for by the Central Government and overburdened migrants. It was recommended that these costs be re-allocated and paid for by the dam operating companies.

PUBLIC OVERSIGHT AND TRANSPARENCYThe State Council’s statement pointed the way to adaptive management for addressing the dam’s impacts. Without data access and freedom to conduct independent research, post project assessments – the essential part of adaptive management – will be crippled. Without institutional and legal changes to support access and transparency, post-project evaluations on the Three Gorges Dam or planning for further infrastructure in the basin cannot be completed.

CHINA’S WATER DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWS U.S. The United States constructed many large multipurpose dams from the 1930s to 70s, a time when ecologic impacts were ignored and discounted. With subsequent and significant public investment, attempts to mitigate adverse ecologic and social impacts have met limited success.

4. 如何改善未来的工程规划？把全流域范围的累积影响纳入规划

长江流域的人类影响现在或者很快就会加重已观测到的地貌和生态影响。贯穿全研讨会，“全长江流域需要综合管理”——它整合了有关新水坝、调水、水库管理、自然区域保护、流域管理以及长江沿岸滞洪区和堤坝保护的活动的规划决定，以改善或预先考虑长期影响——的观点引起了发言者们的共鸣。

在水资源开发的适应性管理上投资

几乎所有的发言者都认为监测和评估必须继续进行，因为这不仅可以给三峡大坝的运行提供信息，而且还可以用来规划长江流域的所有其他水坝。

将洪水管理与土地管理整合起来

防洪水库是以减少洪水风险为目的的洪水管理系统的诸多手段中的一种。如果孤立进行，它们可能在无意中增加洪水风险。有效的洪水管理因此需要把土地使用控制和水库运行整合起来。

综合的水库运行

由于长江流域更多的水电开发以及随之产生的水量争夺，水库运行的综合计划不仅能够蓄洪，而且能为包括维持鱼类栖息地在内的下游用水确保足够的水量。

移民安置费用的分配

三峡大坝被低估了的社会成本现在正在由中央政府买单。有提议认为这些成本应该重新分配，由大坝的运营公司来支付。

公众监督和透明度

国务院文件指出了应对三峡大坝影响的适应性管理方法。但是如果没有获得相关数据的权利和进行独立研究的自由，后工程评估 – 适应性管理的基本部分 – 将会被削弱。就此而言，目前还没有获取重要信息的受保障的权利，而如果没有制度和法律变革来给予这种保障，就无法对三峡工程或该流域已规划的其他工程进行后工程评估。

中国水资源开发的历史重蹈美国覆辙

20世纪30年代至70年代——一个生态影响被忽略和低估的时代——美国建造了许多大型多用途水坝。尽管随后进行了大量的公共投资，但减轻其负面的生态和社会影响的尝试只取得了有限的成绩。

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invited speakersLI Rui is one of the most important voices affecting decisions on the Three Gorges Project. In the 1950s, when supporters tried to launch the project, Li, who was at the time assistant to the minister and head of the Hydropower Construction Bureau in the Ministry of Electric Power and later, deputy minister of Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power, and Mao’s secretary, argued with Lin Yishan (Director of Changjiang Water Resource Committee and one of the most important supporters of the project), and persuaded Mao and the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to postpone the project. In the 1980s, as the Three Gorges Dam project was resurrected, Li Rui, who returned to the position of deputy minister and then served as deputy minister of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, renewed his opposition to the dam during the feasibility study. Even after the decision to build the dam was made, he continued to oppose the project publicly and appealed for the decision to be reversed. Li Rui is the highest level government official to raise serious concerns about the project’s impact and his arguments continue to influence opinions about the Three Gorges Project and related issues in China today.

Baruch BOXER is a Professor Emeritus, Rutgers University, and a Visiting Scholar in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University. He earned AM (1957) and PhD (1961) degrees at the University of Chicago, and retired in 1999 from Rutgers as a professor of geography, human ecology, and environmental sciences. He was also a visiting scholar for nine years at Resources for the Future in Washington, DC, working on China water science and policy issues. He is currently investigating several aspects of technical communication problems in Chinese water engineering.

CHEN Daqing is a Doctor of Hydrobiology of Chinese Academy of Sciences and a Researcher and Vice Superintendent of Yangtze River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences. He has directed research on the impact of the Three Gorges Dam on fish population characteristics, and published in Fishery Resources and Environment monitoring of the Three Gorges Project, a magazine organized by the State Environmental Protection Administration of China.

CHEN Guojie is a Professor and Senior Researcher with the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in Chengdu. Since the 1980s, Professor Chen has focused his research on the environmental impacts of China’s Three Gorges Dam, including resettlement issues related to the project and has published extensively on this topic in both Chinese and

English. He is a member of the Advisory Body on Science and Technology, the Expert Group of the Study Center for Regional Sustainable Development, CAS, and an advisor to the Committee on Environmental Protection of the Sichuan Provincial Government. Professor Chen played a key role in official environmental impact assessments of the Three Gorges Dam project.

CHEN Zhongyuan of East China Normal University (ECNU) is a river-coastal geomorphologist. Before joining ECNU he was a researcher at the Smithsonian from 1990 to 1993. His research interest focuses on the sedimentological and geomorphological processes of delta-coast in response to climate change, sea level rise, source-sink interaction, and human intervention His primary study sites are the Yangtze and the Nile, and he is also the leader of Asia Megadelta project (APN-sponsored, 2003-2009). Professor Chen has published 150 peer-reviewed papers and edited 8 special issues in international journals.

CHENG Xiaotao is the Executive Director of the Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction at the Ministry of Water Resources. He is also the Vice Chief Engineer of the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), and the Executive Chief Editor of the Journal of Hydraulic engineering. Professor Cheng’s specializations include River Engineering and Hydraulics, Numerical Analysis in Hydraulic System, and Flood and Drought Risk Management. Professor Cheng obtained his Doctor of Engineering degree from Kyoto University.

DAI Qing is a Probe International Fellow, activist and journalist who published Yangtze! Yangtze! in 1989, a book of essays and interviews with Chinese experts highlighting the concerns about the environmental and social effects of the dam, followed by The River Dragon Has Come! in 1998. She has been honored with Fellowships from Harvard, Columbia, and the Australian National University, with the International PEN Award for Freedom, and the Goldman Environmental Prize.

FAN Xiao is an Honorary Professor at Chengdu University of Technology and chief engineer at the Regional Geology Investigation Team of the Sichuan Geology and Mineral Bureau. He has surveyed and researched geological and hydrologic conditions in western China for more than 30 years, focusing on China’s geological heritage and environment. Fan is a member of the Geological Society of China, the Seismological Society of Sichuan Province, and is a contributor to the Chinese National Geography magazine. He has published a number of articles in English on China’s hydro dams in relation to dam safety, particularly in

regard to earthquakes and landslides.

GUO Yushan is the founder and director of Transition Institute, a Beijing-based think tank that conducts research on public policy and law reforms needed for China’s transition to a society ruled by law and with a transparent and democratic constitutional government and robust civil society. Mr. Guo, an economics scholar from Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications and the Graduate School of Peking University, specializes in industrial policy and monopoly deregulation, tax reform, property rights, and law reform. He has written extensively on the taxi industry, China’s tax system, and the electricity sector. In 2009, Mr. Guo was honored by the Guangzhou-based magazine, Southern Peoples Weekly, as one of China’s Top Ten Leaders of the Younger Generation.

REN Xinghui is a researcher with the Beijing-based think tank, Transition Institute. A law graduate, Ren’s special area of inquiry is the Three Gorges Dam; he also manages the Civic Transition Panel for Transition Institute and is the editor-in-chief of www.sanxia2008.org (aka, Three Gorges Observation), a Three Gorges Dam web portal offering an independent evaluation of various issues related to the project. The Transition Institute is currently preparing a report detailing the dam project’s history, expenditures and current status.

WANG Fawu graduated from Department of Engineering Geology of Changchun College of Geology, China in 1986. His graduation thesis is about a large landslide in the Three Gorges Water Reservoir area, During his Master course (1986 to 1989), he concentrated his study on the Xintan landslide, which occurred in June 1985 and stopped transport on the Yangtze River for one week. He participated in field exanimations of potential landslide disaster organized by Chinese Central government. After working for five years in Changchun University of Earth Sciences, in 1995 he pursued a PhD degree at Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Japan with a dissertation on rapid and long runout landslide (1999). After working in Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Kanazawa University for 4 years, and DPRI for 6 years, he is now an associate professor in Dept. of Geoscience, National Shimane University, Japan. In 2004-2006, he established a monitoring system on Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Water Reservoir, and published a book: Landslide Disaster Mitigation in Three Gorges Reservoir, China in 2009.

WENG Lida was born in 1944 and graduated from university in 1965. He joined the Yangtze Valley Water Resources Protection Bureau (YVWRPB) in 1978 and worked in the agency for more than 30 years engaging in planning, monitoring, assessment and management of

SYMPOSIUM SPEAKERS

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the water resources protection of the Yangtze River. As a visiting scholar sent by Chinese government, he has two-year working experiences in Canada Centre for Inland Waters and the National Water Research Institute during 1981 - 1983. Since 1993 he was the Director General of YVWRPB until January 2005. He served as Secretary General of the Yangtze Forum until 2007 and Vice-Director of the Environmental Water Conservancy Commitee of Chinese Hydraulic Engineering Society and member of the Science and Technical Committee of the Changjiang Water Resources Commission since 1994.

YANG Shi-Lun is a Professor at East China Normal University (ECNU). He earned his PhD at ECNU in 1988. Since 2002, he has published more than 10 papers on the sedimentary impacts of the Three Gorges Dam in Journal of Hydrology, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Quaternary International, Global and Planetary Change, Estuaries and Coasts, and Geomorphology. These impacts include deposition in the Three Gorges Reservoir, downstream riverbed erosion and bed sediment coarsening sediment exchange between lake Dongting and the main Yangtze River, sediment discharge to the sea, suspended sediment concentration in the estuary and coastal waters, and delta geomorphology.

ZHANG Jingsheng is Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing and formerly was the Vice President of the Technical Committee China Yangtze Three Gorges Project Corporation (CTGPC); Vice President of the International Hydropower Association (IHA); Vice President of the International Committee On Large Dams (ICOLD); Vice President of the Chinese National Committee On Large Dams; Deputy Director of the Hydropower Development in the Department Ministry of Energy; and Chief Engineer of the General Construction Bureau in the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity.

ZHOU Hua-wei is the Joe Pevehouse Endowed Chair and professor in geophysics at T TU since 2007. He was a professor at University of Houston from 1989 to 2007, and the associate director of the Allied Geophysical Laboratories at UH during 1998-2007. His research interests include seismo-tectonics, marine geophysics, and improving seismic imaging solutions. He has authored over 100 peer-reviewed papers and many presentations at international meetings.

Matt KONDOLF is a fluvial geomorphologist and environmental planner, specializing in environmental river management and restoration. He is Professor of Environmental Planning at the University of California,

Berkeley, where he teaches courses in hydrology, river restoration, environmental science, and Mediterranean-climate landscapes, and serves as Chair of the Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning. He is currently the Clarke Scholar at the Institute for Water Resources of the US Army Corps of Engineers in Washington, and formerly served on the Environmental Advisory Board to the Chief of the Corps.

Phil WILLIAMS is the Beatrix Farrand Visiting Professor at UC Berkeley Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning and formerly was President of Philip Williams & Associates a consulting firm specializing in integrated engineering, geomorphology and natural resource management solutions to problems in river and estuary management. He has a Ph.D. in sediment hydraulics from University College London. During the 1990’s he was one of the experts who reviewed the Canadian sponsored Three Gorges feasibility study, this review was published in Damming the Three Gorges.

disCussantsRichard Louis EDMONDS currently is a Visiting Professor in the Geographical Studies Program and an Associate Member, Center for East Asian Studies, University of Chicago. With a long-standing interest in East Asian environmental studies and historical geography, his background includes language study and research in Taiwan and Japan as well as teaching at the University of Hong Kong (1981-1985), The School of Oriental and African Studies (1985-2001), and King’s College, London (2001-2003). Additionally, he taught at the Universities of Macau (1993-1994), Aveiro (Portugal 1998-2002), and Duisburg-Essen, (Germany 2011). While in London, he concurrently held the position as Editor of The China Quarterly (1996-2002). Dr. Edmonds has worked on environmental projects in China for the European Union and for the Chinese government. He first wrote about the debates surrounding the Three Gorges Dam in the early 1990s and continues to write and teach about environmental matters in China.

Robert GOODLAND served as the World Bank Group’s environmental adviser from 1978 for 23 years, where he drafted and persuaded the Bank to adopt most of its mandatory social and environmental safeguard policies. He worked on the social and environmental impacts of Itaipu, Tucurui and other big dams. He advised the Three Gorges ESIA team in the 1980s. He helped create the World Commission on Dams in Cape Town. In 2001, he was appointed Technical Director of the independent “Extractive Industry Review” of the World Bank’s oil, gas and mining portfolio (EIR.

org). The Library of Congress (Loc.Gov) lists 39 of his books. He was elected chair of the Ecological Society of America (Metropolitan), and President of the International Association for Impact Assessment. Last year he was awarded IUCN’s Coolidge Medal for outstanding lifetime achievement in environmental conservation.

Lynn HIGHLAND is a Geographer with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, located in Golden, Colorado. Lynn began her career as an Anthropologist for the USGS Earthquake Program and after obtaining a Masters degree in Geography from the University of Colorado, Boulder, became Coordinator of the USGS National Landslide Information Center (NLIC). The NLIC provides outreach support for the USGS Landslide Program, and is a resource for landslide education and information. Her full professional profile with a publications list can be found at this link: http://profile.usgs.gov/highland

Scott NICHOLSON supports USACE Headquarters as a policy advisor and analyst with the Civil Works Office of Water Project Review (OWPR). He was formerly a Civil Works Planning Manager for the Pacific Ocean Division Regional Integration Team and supports HQ Planning and Program initiatives. He has successfully managed large complex planning studies for Dept of Interior, EPA and the Corps Civil and Military Programs. Mr. Nicholson is a PhD researcher with a focus on engineering policy and environmental planning at the University of California Berkeley with a MS in Civil Engineering; Masters of City Planning (MCP) and Masters of Landscape Architecture (MLA). He worked as a Staff Member on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and has led complex state and federal programs and projects through inter-governmental planning and construction efforts including ones recognized by the President’s Council on Environmental Quality and the Army.

editorJennifer NATALI researches geomorphic and ecological impacts of climate change and land use in mountain regions and Mediterranean-climate landscapes. While pursuing a Ph.D. at the University of California, Berkeley, she also consults through her firm, Metaterrain, serving local and international organizations with watersh ed-based environmental planning. She applies her background in design and computer science to understand and communicate landscape process, and to visualize and assess the restoration of natural resources. She is currently an artist-in-residence at the Exploratorium museum in San Francisco.

On May 18, 2011, Wen Jiabao, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, held a State Council executive meeting that discussed and passed the “Three Gorges Post-Project Plan” and “Water Pollution Control Plan for the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River.”

The meeting pointed out that, with the Central Government’s and State Council’s strong leadership, the strong support of the people of China and 17 years of hard work, the initial stage of the Three Gorges project design and construction has been completed within schedule and that its multi-purpose benefits -- including flood control, hydropower, shipping, and water resources -- are now being realized. However, at the same time as tremendous benefits are being realized, problems have also emerged, with resettlement, environmental protection, and geological hazard prevention, and so on, and need to be urgently addressed. For example, problems have also emerged with the dam project’s impact on shipping, irrigation, and water supply in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze.

Some of these problems were foreseen during the project’s evaluation and design, and were slated for correction after the project was completed. Some of these problems were identified during the project’s construction but, due to time constraints, proved too difficult to remedy effectively at the time. Some of these problems are the result of new issues due to ongoing economic and social development.

It is meaningful and important to start the Three Gorges post-project work now, to ensure the Three Gorges Project continues to operate safely in the long term, to provide multi-purpose benefits, to increase the project’s contribution to national economic and social development, and to increase the benefits to the people in China.

The meeting emphasized that the Three Gorges post-project work must insist on the principles of

appendix a: state council statement

putting people first, and to paying more attention to citizens’ lives, environmental protection, and sustainable development. Three Gorges post-project work must also take all factors into account in the comprehensive planning process, emphasizing key elements, such as state support and multiple sources of finance, by prioritizing issues according to their importance and urgency, and by implementing the post-project plan on a step-by-step basis. Through improved policies and the provision of more significant financial support, a new and stable reservoir area will achieve economically, socially and environmentally harmonious development.

The goals of the “Three Gorges Post-Project Plan” are:

• By 2020, the living standard of the resettled population should equal the average standard of living in Hubei Province and Chongqing Municipality;

• Establish a social security system for all resettled residents in urban and rural areas;

• Make significant improvements in the economic structure and increased competitiveness of the reservoir area;

• Improve transportation, water resource conservancy, and urban infrastructure development;

• Provide basic social and public services in the resettlement areas;

• Control environmental degradation;• Provide long-term geological hazard

protection and management;• Develop disaster prevention and damage

reduction systems.

To achieve these goals:

1. Encourage economic and social development in the reservoir area; provide the resettled population with stability and prosperity, and improved job opportunities. The government will supplement the retirement insurance and medical insurance premiums of the population relocated in urban areas, and in farming villages located in ecological buffer zones;

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Source: Office of the State Council, Central Government Website (www.gov.cn), May 18, 2011. Original version (in Chinese) at http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2011-05/18/content_1866289.htm. Translated by Probe International.

2. Improve environmental restoration and conservation for the reservoir water body, the riparian zone, the ecological buffer zone, and major tributaries feeding the reservoir. Provide system-wide pollution control, increase ecosystem resiliency and capacity, and reduce the influx of pollution into the reservoir area. Develop an environmental protection system;

3. Improve reservoir area geological hazard prevention, develop a monitoring and alarm system, and an emergency response system. For those facing the threat of geological hazards: relocate rural villagers, provide engineering solutions to reduce the risk in newly built towns, high density areas and other areas that face significant potential damage from geological hazards. Control future land-use urban developments in high-risk areas;

4. Mitigate the negative impacts of the dam on the middle reaches and downstream areas of the Yangtze. Implement engineering solutions, river stabilization, improve levees, improve navigation and water intake functions, ecosystem restoration, improve environmental habitat, protect biodiversity, improve monitoring and research efforts, and optimize reservoir control;

5. Improve the Three Gorges Dam project comprehensive management capability: develop a comprehensive monitoring system, information delivery platform and decision-making system, and provide a long-term project implementation management system;

6. Focus on turning flood water into a resource, optimize reservoir control, and improve water supply benefits. Expand the overall benefits of the Three Gorges project’s flood control, hydro-electric, navigation, ecological, and water resource functions. Improve the country’s strategic protection of water safety and electricity supply grid operation.

The meeting requests that local governments and agencies reinforce leadership and collaboration,

improve policy implementation, and carefully arrange implementation.

The “Water Pollution Control Plan for the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River” will now include five control areas, namely the main channel of the Yangtze; the mouth of Yangtze River; the middle and lower reaches of the Han River; Dongting Lake; and Poyang Lake. It covers 408 counties in eight provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government, with a 638,000 km2 watershed area.

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is one of China’s highest population density areas, with the strongest economy, and with one of the highest levels of stress on the ecosystem. Due to rapid economic and social development, water pollution of the valley is increasingly worsening and threatening water supply sources and the aquatic ecosystem.

By focusing on optimizing the economic structure and manufacturing assets, using a combination of engineering, technology, and ecological methods, we can enhance environmental protection, improve overall river and estuary water pollution control and environmental monitoring standards, protect the safety of the potable water sources and water quality, solve major environmental problems in the valley, as well as encourage social and economic growth.

This meeting asks that project management be improved, project quality be assured, and that evaluations and assessments be provided to ensure that the “Water Pollution Control Plan for the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River” is successfully implemented.

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0900 Welcome/Orientation/Introductions Matt Kondolf, Chair, LAEP, UC Berkeley

0915 Opening statement Li Rui, former Vice Minister for Water Resourcesread by Li Nanyang

0930 What Lessons Can the Three Gorges Dam Teach Us? Philip Williams, Visiting Professor, LAEP, UC Berkeley

0945 Three Gorges Threads and Links Baruch Boxer, visiting scholar, Stanford University

1045 An overview of the Three Gorges Project Zhang Jinsheng, visiting Professor Tsinghua University

1055 sessiOn 1: impacts On FlOWs and FlOOds Moderator: Gao Yongxuan NHIDiscussant: Scott Nicholson USACE-HQ / UCB CEE

Impact of Three Gorges Reservoir Impounding on the Middle - Lower Yangtze River Drought

Fan Xiao. Sichuan Geology Bureau

Changes of Flood Risk on the Yangtze River floodplain Cheng Xiaotao IWHR

1400 sessiOn 2: geOmORphic impacts Moderator: Hsing You-Tien, UCB GeographyDiscussant: Matt Kondolf,UCB LAEP

Sedimentation in the Three Gorges Reservoir and its Impact on Downstream Sediment Discharge

Yang Shi-Lun, East China Normal University

Impact of the Three-Gorges Dam on the Fluvial Morphology of the Middle and Lower Yangtze Basin – What We Can Learn

Chen Zhongyuan, East China Normal University

Estuarine and Coastal Sedimentary and Morphological Responses to the Construction of Three Gorges Dam

Yang Shi-Lun, East China Normal University

appendix b: SYMPOSIUM Agenda

0900 sessiOn 3: geOlOgic hazaRd impacts Moderator: Han-Bin Liang, WRECODiscussant: Lynn Highland, USGS

Landslide Disaster in the Three Gorges: Reorganization, Mitigation and Prediction

Wang Fawu, Shimane University

Reservoir Induced Seismicity and Earthquake Potential of the Three Gorges Region

Zhou Hua Wei, Texas Tech University

1045 sessiOn 4: enviROnmental impacts Moderator: Katherine Suding, ESPM, UC BerkeleyDiscussant: Robert Goodland, ex World Bank

The Environmental Impact of the Three Gorges Project after Impounding

Weng Lida, Yangtze Valley Water Resources Protection Bureau

Impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on the Fishery Resources of the Yangtze River

Chen Daqing. Yangtze River Fisheries Research Institute

1330 sessiOn 5: sOciOecOnOmic impacts Moderator: Tom Gold, Sociology, UC BerkeleyDiscussant: Richard Edmonds, University of Chicago

The Real Social Cost of the Three Gorges Project Guo Yushan, Transition Institute

An Overview of the Issues Associated with Resettlement Due to the Three Gorges Project

Chen Guojie, Institute of Mountain Disasters and Environment

Whose Three Gorges Project? Ren Xinghui, Transition Institute

1515 Panel discussion of symposium key findings All speakers

1700 Conclusion of Symposium

SATURDAY, 11 APRIL 2012

SUNDAY, 12 APRIL 2012

ISBN 978-0-9837986-4-4© All Rights Reserved

Printed by Bacchus Press, Emeryville, CAon 100% recycled, chlorine-free paper with 100% post-consumer waste and vegetable-based inks.

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acknowledgementssymposium organization Committee

Philip B. Williams, P.E., Eur.Ing.Distinguished Visiting Professor

Dept of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, UC Berkeley

Raymond Wong, P.E.Dept of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, UC Berkeley

G. Mathias KondolfProfessor and Chair

Dept of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, UC Berkeley

Baruch BoxerProfessor Emeritus, Rutgers University

Visiting Scholar, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University

Patricia AdamsExecutive Director, Probe International, Toronto

Ren XinghuiResearcher, Transition Institute, Beijing, China

symposium sponsorsUniversity of California, Berkeley

Dept of Landscape Architecture and Environmental PlanningGlobal Metropolitan Studies ProgramCivil and Environmental Engineering

Institute of East Asian Studies

External OrganizationsASCE San Francisco Section

Chinese American Environmental Professionals AssociationProbe International

Pacific EnvironmentESA

Proceedings Editor Jennifer NataliDept of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, UC Berkeley

Rapporteur Jeanny Wang MilesDept of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, UC Berkeley

Volunteer Symposium TranslatorsChen Zhang

Hong YangHuang Yuanxi

Jeanny Wang MilesJessica Kao

Jin HuangJohn Chien

Ling (Ivy) Tao

Mingjiang QiuMonica Xu

Noya WangSherry Sung

Songqiao YaoXiaoyu Liu

Yang YuYuan Zhuang

13-14 APRIL 2012University of California, Berkeley

长江三峡大坝研讨会

GORGES

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?3 DAM

AFTERAFTER

SUMMARY OFSYMPOSIUM

IMPACT ON FLOWS

GEOMORPHIC IMPACTS

GEOLOGIC HAZARDS

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTSISBN 978-0-9837986-4-4 DEPART MENT OF LANDSCAPE ARCHIT ECTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING