after months of accelerated job growth, labor market slows down...
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
After months of accelerated job
growth, labor market slows down
U.S. employment situation: March 2015 April 3, 2015
March 2015 employment summary
• After 12 consecutive months of job creation exceeding 200,000 jobs per month, the U.S. economy took a breather in March, but this is likely
temporary rather than permanent, due to low rates of jobless claims and consistent previous growth. Much of this was spurred by a
contraction in goods-producing employment (mining and logging alone posted losses of 11,000 jobs over the month), although most
subsectors registered below-average gains.
• Unemployment stayed stable at 5.5 percent. A 10-basis-point decrease in labor force participation to 62.7 percent was a contributor to
falling unemployment, lowering the number of people looking for work. Similarly, the number of re-entrants and new entrants to the
workforce has fallen consistently, which is lowering unemployment figures. Total unemployment once again declined faster, down 10 basis
points to 10.9 percent.
• Unemployment for high-school and college grads remains near cyclical lows (5.3 and 2.5 percent, respectively), but labor force participation
for both groups is at record lows with little sign of increase. Continued declines in unemployment have kept wage growth stable at 2.6
percent. With these figures set to fall even further over the coming months, wages may rise even faster. Importantly, wages are currently
increasing at a faster pace than the consumer price index due to the ongoing collapse in energy prices.
• Office-using industries contributed 50,000 jobs to March growth, similar to previous months but not on the same upward trajectory as other
high-growth sectors.
- However, as multiple subsectors saw declines in the rate of monthly growth, office-using industries contributed to 39.7 percent of
March’s gains.
• At the market level, Silicon Valley saw 5.3-percent annual job growth, among the highest rates recorded for a JLL-tracked market this cycle.
Additionally, the number of metro areas with employment gains of more than 4.0 percent is at its highest rate during the current cycle.
Notably, Atlanta has joined many of the top-performing Sunbelt cities as a core contributor to metro-area employment growth, with
annualized increases of 4.3 percent.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
After 12 months of job growth greater than 200,000, March saw
a slowdown to 126,000 new jobs 36
0,00
0
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
106,
000
122,
000
221,
000
183,
000
164,
000 19
6,00
0
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
0
84,0
00
166,
000
188,
000 22
5,00
0
330,
000
236,
000
286,
000
249,
000
213,
000 25
0,00
0
221,
000
423,
000
329,
000
201,
000
264,
000
126,
000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep
-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
As a a result of this slowdown and downward revisions to
previous months, unemployment stayed steady at 5.5 percent
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
Despite March’s below-average figures, job openings are
higher than the previous cycle
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Job
open
ings
(th
ousa
nds)
-11.0
-3.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.6
2.0
5.8
8.0
9.5
11.4
13.0
25.9
30.0
38.0
40.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Mining and logging
Government
Nondurable goods
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Other services
Durable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Wholesale trade
Financial activities
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
Goods-producing sectors, particularly mining and logging, saw
the fatest monthly contractions in March
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
PBS
Education and health
Retail trade
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
82.5 percent of
monthly
growth.
The 13,000-job contraction in goods-producing employment
broke these industries’ 14-month growth streak
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
4.0
6.7
17.0
47.4
59.0
72.0
73.0
110.2
143.8
150.0
163.6
171.0
188.0
282.0
326.1
474.6
490.0
541.0
662.0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Mining and logging
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Government
Other services
Wholesale trade
Temporary help services
Financial activities
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Education and health
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Financial activities
All other jobs
On an annual basis, growth in all sectors remains positive; 12-
month net change totaled 3.1 million
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
Core subsectors added 75.4 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
White-collar unemployment fell once again, down to 2.5
percent in March
2.5%
5.3%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Wage growth continues to rise at a steady pace as a result of
labor market growth, likely to see further gains in 2015
$21.00
$21.50
$22.00
$22.50
$23.00
$23.50
$24.00
$24.50
$25.00
$25.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ave
rage
hou
rly w
age
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor force participation in both segments continues its slow,
downward trajectory
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
57.0%
58.0%
59.0%
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hig
h sc
hool
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Col
lege
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Bachelor's degree High school, no college
Tech and office-using employment growth largely stable despite
slowdown elsewhere
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through February 2015.
12
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
Tech still leading; energy demonstrating first signs of decline in
response to falling prices Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
Consistent jobless claims in light of slowdown indicate that
March was an aberrant month in an otherwise strong recovery
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hire
s an
d qu
its (
thou
sand
s)
Hires Quits
Hires and quits continue to rise slowly, but growth indicates
increased employee confidence
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Silicon Valley job creation surpasses 5.0 percent annually, while
Atlanta joins red-hot Texas and Florida markets
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Silicon Valley
5.3%
San Francisco
4.7%
Dallas
4.4%
Atlanta
4.3%
Fort
Lauderdale
4.3%
Miami
4.0%
Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting
job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however
17
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hampton
Roads
0.8%
St. Louis
0.9%
Milwaukee
0.9%
Pittsburgh
0.9% Cleveland
1.1%
Fairfield
County
1.1%
Total unemployment is still falling faster than the official rate,
down 10bp to 10.9 percent in March
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
Labor force participation declined by 10bp to 62.7 percent,
helping to suppress unemployment somewhat
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n ra
te (
%)
Re-entrants and new entrants to the workforce have also fallen
precipitiously, contributing to lower unemployment
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ent
rant
s (t
hous
ands
)
Re-entrants New entrants
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
A quiet month for many sectors resulted in office-using
industries comprising nearly two in every five new jobs
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
Although financial activities and information are becoming more
stable, office-using growth is contributing less to overall gains
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 78.2 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In February 2015, it represented 80.0 percent of monthly growth.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
After two months of contraction, temporary help services grew
in March to almost 2.9 million jobs
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2,600.0
2,800.0
3,000.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mon
thly
net
cha
nge
in jo
bs (
ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporary em
ployment (ths)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
23
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