africom related newsclips 26 aug11

8/4/2019 AFRICOM Related Newsclips 26 Aug11

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Diplomats Meet in Tu r key to Discuss Libya's Future (Voice ofAmerica)25 August 2011

Istanbul, Turkey, is hosting a high-level diplomatic meeting of some 30countries on what support can be given to Libya following the ousting ofleader Moammar Gadhafi. The attending countries belong to the LibyanContact Group and include the United States, European, western Arab andAfrican nations, as well as Libya's rebel government, known as the NationalTransitional Council [NTC]. Money topped the agenda.

What Happens to Libyan Oil After Q a ddafi? (The Atlantic)The country's "sweet" oil reserves have a disproportionate effect onworld supplies and European economies.25 August 2011

As Libyan rebels continue to hunt for Muammar el-Qaddafi, the future ofLibya hangs in the balance. But so does the future of Libyan oil.

Opinion: NATO Nations S et to Reap Spoils of Libya War. (Al Jazeera)As rebels take Tripoli, foreign powers are eyeing the prize of Libya'shigh quality crude oil.25 August 2011France's President Nicolas Sarkozy, like his counterparts in the UK, Italy, theUS and other countries, is keen to garner oil contracts once a newgovernment emerges in Libya.

Rebel Athor Admits Leading Dea d ly South Sudan Attacks (Voice ofAmerica)25 August 2011South Sudan is accusing Khartoum of backing a cross-border attack at Kakatown in Upper Nile state by rebel groups that left over 72 people dead. Thedead include at least 15 Southern Army soldiers.

Sudanese risk post-inde p endence statelessness UNHCR (ReutersAfrica)25 August 2011LONDON Aug 25 (Reuters) - Large Sudanese communities could become

stateless, deprived of basic rights such as access to jobs and education,unless Khartoum and Juba ensure citizenship for all following South Sudan'sindependence, the U.N. refugee chief said on Thursday.

Few African Leaders Show up f o r Famine Summit (LA Times)25 August 2011Only four of 54 member nations attend the African Union donors conferencein Ethiopia, aimed at raising money to ease the crisis in the Horn of Africa.
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Diplomats-Meet-in-Turkey-to-Discuss-Libyas-Future-128427383.htmlhttp://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/what-happens-to-libyan-oil-after-qaddafi/244119/http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201182511546451332.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/east/REBEL-ATHOR-ADMITS-LEADING-SOUTH-SUDAN-ATTACKS-128400703.htmlhttp://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E7JP2XR20110825?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-ethiopia-aid-20110826,0,2384677.storyhttp://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Diplomats-Meet-in-Turkey-to-Discuss-Libyas-Future-128427383.htmlhttp://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/08/what-happens-to-libyan-oil-after-qaddafi/244119/http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201182511546451332.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/east/REBEL-ATHOR-ADMITS-LEADING-SOUTH-SUDAN-ATTACKS-128400703.htmlhttp://af.reuters.com/article/sudanNews/idAFL5E7JP2XR20110825?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-ethiopia-aid-20110826,0,2384677.story


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Instructors Struggle to Mold Militias from Wa r -Ravaged Somalia in aNational Army(The Washington Post)

25 August 2011MOGADISHU, Somalia The instructors whistle tweets, and around 50Somalis drawing paychecks from the U.S. government punch the air in frontof them with varying degrees of coordination and enthusiasm.

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UN News Service Afr ica BriefsFull Articles on UN Website

Cape Verde: Ban commends peaceful and credible presidential poll25 August Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has welcomed the peacefulstaging of presidential elections in Cape Verde, saying they illustrate theWest African countrys continued adherence to democracy and goodgovernance.

World must fund famine-wracked Somalia to prevent generationdying, UN warns25 August African leaders convened a fund-raising conference today forfamine-wracked Somalia, where tens of thousands of people have alreadydied and 3.2 million are on the brink of starvation, with a top United Nations

official warning that the crisis stretches far beyond hunger to issues ofhealth, protection and livelihood.

On eve of Horn of Africa pledging conference, UN calls for generousdonations24 August Senior United Nations officials are calling on countries,businesses and individuals to give generously to support efforts to tackle thefood security crisis gripping the Horn of Africa, warning that the world cannotafford to lose momentum in the fight against famine, disease andstarvation.

Funding shortage forces UN agency to trim food rations forCongolese refugees24 August A shortage of funds has forced the United Nations World FoodProgramme (WFP) to halve its food rations for tens of thousands ofCongolese refugees in Rwanda beginning on 1 September.

Liberians vote on constitutional changes seen by UN as milestone inpeace process
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/instructors-struggle-to-mold-militias-from-war-ravaged-somalia-into-a-national-army/2011/08/25/gIQAUDZldJ_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/instructors-struggle-to-mold-militias-from-war-ravaged-somalia-into-a-national-army/2011/08/25/gIQAUDZldJ_story.htmlhttp://www.un.org/apps/news/region.asp?Region=AFRICAhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/instructors-struggle-to-mold-militias-from-war-ravaged-somalia-into-a-national-army/2011/08/25/gIQAUDZldJ_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/instructors-struggle-to-mold-militias-from-war-ravaged-somalia-into-a-national-army/2011/08/25/gIQAUDZldJ_story.htmlhttp://www.un.org/apps/news/region.asp?Region=AFRICA


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23 August Liberians went to the polls today to vote in a referendum onconstitutional changes, a move described by the United Nations envoy forthe West African country as a milestone in the process to entrench peaceand stability that has prevailed since the end of the civil war in 2003.

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UPCOMING EVENTS OF INTEREST:

1 SEPT 2011

WHEN: September 1, 2011, 5:45 p.m. 7:30 p.m.WHAT: The Long Shadow of 9/11: Americas Response to TerrorismWHO: Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Adviser to the President of RANDWHERE: RAND Corporation, 1776 Main St., Santa Monica, CA

CONTACT: [email protected] contact: http://www.rand.org/events/2011/09/01.html

8 SEPT 2011

WHEN: September 8, 2011, 12:00 p.m. 1:30 p.m.WHAT: Ten Years Later Public Diplomacy and the Arab World, Center onPublic Diplomacy at the Annenberg School, Conversations in PublicDiplomacyWHO: Several Panelists (see website)

WHERE: USC; Tutor Campus Center ForumCONTACT: [email protected] contact:http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/events/events_detail/16973/

20 SEPT 2011

WHEN: September 20, 2011, 12:00 p.m.

WHAT: Pakistan, the U.S. and Public Diplomacy with

Consul General Riffat Masood CPD Conversations in Public

Diplomacy

WHO: Riffat Masood, the Consul General of PakistanWHERE: USC; SOS B40CONTACT : [email protected] contact:http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/events/events_detail/17070/---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mailto:[email protected]://www.rand.org/events/2011/09/01.htmlmailto:[email protected]://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/events/events_detail/16973/mailto:[email protected]://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/events/events_detail/17070/mailto:[email protected]://www.rand.org/events/2011/09/01.htmlmailto:[email protected]://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/events/events_detail/16973/mailto:[email protected]://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/events/events_detail/17070/


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FULL ARTICLE TEXT

U.S.: Gadhafi Chemical, Nuclear Materials Secure (ABC News)By: Kirit Radia

25 August 2011

American officials said today that Moammar Gadhafi's stock of chemical andnuclear materials are secure, amid fears they could fall into the wrong handsas the longtime leader's regime falls.

"Our judgment is that they remain secure," U.S. State Departmentspokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters. "We have no reason to believethat there is anything else of that nature anywhere else."

U.S. officials, including Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the chairman of the

House Intelligence Committee, said they are concerned the sensitivematerial could end up in the hands of terrorists in the unstable nation nowthat Gadhafi is on the run.

"Gadhafi did have some mustard agent," Nuland confirmed today. She saidthe deadly chemicals had been moved to an ammunition reservation whereit is kept "inside massive steel containers, within heavy bunkers" that weresealed by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

U.S. officials used "national technical means" to determine that, thoughsome gas remained, it was accounted for and further found that any

"sensitive elements of Libya's nuclear program" had been removedsuccessfully from the country years before. The last of Gadhafi's highlyenriched uranium, which could have been used to produce a nuclear bomb,were taken out of the country in 2009.

While Gadhafi did have some yellowcake nuclear material, that material is"safeguarded" in a Libyan nuclear research facility. In any event, Nulandsaid, "Libya doesn't have the means right now to turn yellowcake intoanything dangerous."

With chemical and nuclear dangers out of the way, Nuland said the greatest

concern to the U.S. was the proliferation of the Libyan military's powerful,shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons known as MANPADS.

Chris Stevens, the U.S. envoy to the Transitional National Council inBenghazi, has met with the rebel leadership several times in recent weeks toensure they are prepared to take over control of depots containing thoseweapons.


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"I cannot from here today size the MANPAD problem, because I don't thinkanybody knows," Nuland said. "This was not something that Gadhafi was inthe business of publishing, and he's good at hiding stuff."

The State Department has already spent $3 million on contracts to helpdestroy weapons and mines inside parts of Libya that have been taken overby rebel forces.

Gadhafi had promised in 2003 to dismantle its nuclear program as part of anagreement that eventually led the U.S. to take Libya off the list of states thatsponsor terrorism in 2006.

After the agreement, the U.S. sent millions in aid to the Gadhafi regime"focused on bolstering Libya's commitments to renouncing weapons of massdestruction," according to State Department records.

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NATO Working to Track Thousands of Libyan Missiles (CNN)By Barbara Starr and Pam Benson25 August 2011

Washington -- NATO is trying to learn specifics about how many surface-to-air missiles and launchers may still be operational inside Libya and whocontrols them, a NATO official told CNN Thursday.

Several months ago, the U.S. military estimated Libya had an arsenal of20,000 such missiles, known as SAMs, but it is not clear how many may havebeen destroyed during the conflict and who has control of those remaining.

During an April 7 hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen.Carter Ham, chief of the U.S. Africa Command, said, "I'm very concernedabout the proliferation of weapons, notably shoulder-fired surface-to-airmissiles, which we assess there were perhaps as many as 20,000 in Libya asthe operation began. Many of those we know are now not accounted for. Andthat's going to be a concern for some period of time."

But the State Department tried to tamp down concerns on Thursday aboutLibya's weapons.

"On the conventional side, there's been a lot of fear-mongering reportingabout missiles and other things," said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. Shesaid the United States is working with the Libyan opposition as well asneighboring countries to control the movement of any shoulder-firedweapons out of Libya.


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Questions also have been raised about 10 tons of mustard gas stored at theWaddan Ammunition Reservation in Libya. Nuland said the gas is secure.

"It is inside massive steel containers within heavy bunkers. These bunkerswere sealed by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons ...and we are able to monitor the security with national technical means," shesaid, referring to the intelligence community's use of satellites, drones andother surveillance measures.

But Nuland also referred to discussions with the National Transitional Councilabout taking over external security of the facility, raising the question aboutexactly who is watching over it now.

A U.S. official said the same Libyan government unit that had been guarding

the mustard gas stockpile is still doing so, an indication that Gadhafi securityforces are still present. But the official said the United States has beenclosely monitoring the facility and has determined "they have neitherabandoned their posts, nor tried to gain access to the materials."

The materials "are secure, guarded and not disturbed," said the official.

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Libya: National Transitional Council in Tripoli as of this moment(The Telegraph)

Libya's National Transitional Council last night declared that thegovernment had moved its operations to Tripoli as of thismoment.By: Gordon Rayner, Damien McElroy and Andrew Gilligan26 August 2011

Ali Tarhouni, the NTC vice-chairman, said there had been greatimprovement in the security situation in the capital, though he appealed forLibyans to respect people and property and for the citys police to resumework. He said Mahmoud Jibril, the head of the transitional government, wouldmove to Tripoli depending on the security situation.

When asked how Col Muammar Gaddafi would be found, he replied: Whenwe capture him, well tell you about it. How about that?

He added that he would hopefullybe captured before the end of Ramadan,but proclaimed even if he was still at large, he would not be an obstacle tothe rebuilding of Libya. We are free, he is the one moving from sewer tosewer.


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The net appeared to be closing on Muammar Gaddafi last night as rebels laidsiege to a possible hideout and British intelligence sources said that thedeposed leader was still in Tripoli.

Up to 1,000 opposition fighters surrounded an apartment block nearGaddafis former headquarters in the Libyan capital, where they exchangedfire with loyalists following unconfirmed reports that the despot was insidewith some of his sons.

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Syrian Protesters Chant Bye Gaddafi, Bashar Next (Rueters)By Khaled Oweis25 August 2011

AMMAN (Reuters) - Syrian protesters chanted "bye, bye Gaddafi, Bashar yourturn is coming" overnight, but President Bashar al-Assad showed few signs ofcracking after months of demonstrations and his forces raided an easterntribal region again on Thursday.

The new chant, inspired by the apparent collapse of Muammar Gaddafi's rulein Libya, was filmed by residents in the Damascus suburb of Duma afterprayers on Wednesday.

But in eastern Syria, tanks and armored vehicles entered Shuhail, a town

southeast of the provincial capital of Deir al-Zor, where daily protests havetaken place against Assad's rule since the start of the fasting month ofRamadan, they said.

"Initial reports by residents describe tens of tanks firing randomly as theystormed the town at dawn. Shuhail has been very active in protests and theregime is using overwhelming force to frighten the people," a local activistsaid.

Since Ramadan began on August 1, tanks have entered the cities of Hama,scene of a 1982 massacre by the military, Deir al-Zor and Latakia on the

Mediterranean coast, trying to crush dissent after months of street protests.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an activist group based in Britain,said 11 civilians had been killed across Syria on Wednesday, including sevenin the province of Homs.


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State news agency SANA said "armed terrorist groups" killed eight soldierswhen they ambushed two military vehicles near the towns of Rastan andTelbiseh.

Syria has expelled most independent journalists, making it difficult to verifyaccounts on the ground from authorities and activists.

Prominent cartoonist and Assad critic Ali Ferzat was beaten up in Damascusby a group of armed men and then dumped in the street, an oppositionactivist group said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Ferzat was taken to hospitalwith bruises to his face and hands.

Ferzat, whose cartoons often mock repression and injustice in the Arab

world, has criticized Assad's repression of protests. He told Al Arabiyatelevision three weeks ago: "For the first time there is a genuine and freerevolution in Syria."

EU OIL SANCTIONS POSSIBLE

The defeat of Gaddafi may encourage Western nations to step up movesagainst Assad, who pursued parallel policies of strengthening ties with Iranand Shi'ite Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah while seeking peace talkswith Israel and accepting European and U.S. overtures that were key inrehabilitating him on the international stage.

European Union diplomats said on Wednesday that the bloc's governmentswere likely to impose an embargo on imports of Syrian oil by the end of nextweek, although new sanctions may be less stringent than those imposed byWashington.

Syria exports over a third of its 385,000 barrels of daily crude oil output toEurope, mainly the Netherlands, Italy, France and Spain.

A disruption would cut off a major source of foreign currency that helps tofinance the security apparatus, and restrict funds at Assad's disposal to

reward loyalists and continue a crackdown in which the United Nations says2,200 people have been killed.In a sign that the prospect of sanctions was already having an effect, traderssaid French oil major Total had not lifted a cargo of naphtha from Syria'sBanias refinery which it had bought in a tender.


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Arab League ministers will meet in Cairo on Saturday to discuss Syria. Anofficial said they would discuss imposing a timeframe for Assad to enactreforms.

But they would also call on "all parties to end the conflict," the official said, inan apparent acceptance of Syria's argument that it faces armed opponents.

In an interview with state television this week, Assad said the unrest "hasshifted toward armed acts." Authorities blame the violence on "armedterrorist groups," who they say have killed an unspecified number of civiliansand 500 soldiers and police.

Human Rights Watch said in a new report that the vast majority of civiliandeaths documented by Syrian human rights groups "have occurred incircumstances in which there was no threat to Syrian forces."

"President al-Assad has said he is pursuing a battle against 'terrorist groups'and 'armed gangs,' and Syrian authorities have claimed that they have'exercised maximum restraint while trying to control the situation'. Neitherclaim is true," the report said.

It said Syrian forces had killed at least 49 people since Assad told U.N.Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on August 17 that military and policeoperations had stopped, adding that on August 22 in Homs, Syrian forces"fired on a crowd of peaceful protesters shortly after a U.N. humanitarianassessment team left the area, killing four."

The official state news agency quoted Assad as telling clerics during aRamadan iftar meal on Wednesday that the West was pressuring Syria "tosell out, which will not happen because the Syrian people have chosen tohave an independent will."----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Italy Pledges Funds for Libya (The Wall Street Journal)By Stacy Meichtry and Giada Zampano25 August 2011

ROMEItalian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi pledged 350 million ($504.5million) in funding to Libya's interim government on Thursday in a bid tostabilize the rebel-backed leadership as they relocate to Tripoli.

In addition, Italy's Eni SpA, the largest foreign oil company in Libya, will signan agreement with Libya's interim government on Monday to supply naturalgas and fuel for the immediate needs of the local population, Mr. Berlusconi


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said in joint press conference with Mahmoud Jibril, chairman of the executivecouncil of Libya's transitional government.

The Italian moves are part of a broader effort to unlock billions of dollars in

Libyan assets that were frozen by the United Nations and the EuropeanUnion earlier this year in an attempt to turn up pressure on the regime ofCol. Moammar Gadhafi. On Wednesday, the U.S. introduced a resolution tothe U.N. to authorize the transfer of about $1.5 billion in frozen funds toLibya for humanitarian needs.

The U.S. resolution seeks to override South Africa's opposition to unfreezingmost of the Libyan money until the U.N. recognizes the interim government.A vote on the resolution is expected Thursday.

Mr. Jibril said the funds from Italy would help assuage the interim

government's urgent need for funding, as well as fuel and gas supplies. Themoney, Mr. Jibril said, will be used to fund health services as well as thecollection of weapons, a key step in bringing order to Libyan streets. Thefailure to unlock additional funding, Mr. Jibril said, would lead to "graveconsequences" as the interim government struggles to find its footing inTripoli and exercise control over the rest of the country.

"The destabilization inside Tripoli and other parts of the country would reallybe beyond control" without steady funding, Mr. Jibril said.

A spokesman for the Italian foreign ministry said Italy would deliver the funds

as an advance on Libyan money that is in Italian banks but remains frozenunder U.N. and EU orders.

Getting Libya back online is also a major goal for Mr. Berlusconi'sgovernment. The conflict shredded the close ties that Mr. Berlusconi hadcultivated with Col. Gadhafi over the years, allowing Tripoli to pour its oilwealth into Italy's stagnant economy. Libya's sovereign-wealth fund andcentral bank were major investors in some of Italy's biggest firms, includingMilan-based bank UniCredit SpA, defense contractor Finmeccanica SpA andthe Turin football club Juventus. Libya's stakes in those firms remain frozen.

Eni's agreement to supply local Libyan populations is a first step in revivingthe Italian oil giant's vast operations in the country. Before the conflict,Rome counted on the North African country for about a quarter of Italy's oilsupplies and 10% of its natural gas. Eni was forced to shut down its pipelineswhen the conflict broke out, withdrawing its Italian staff from the country inFebruary.


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"We found a solution by delivering gas and fuel for the population inadvance. We will get future payment in oil once the Libyan fields arefunctioning again," said Eni chief executive Paolo Scaroni, speaking on thesidelines of the Milan press conference.

Mr. Scaroni said he expects Libyan oil output to resume in six to 18 months,adding that the company's priority was getting Libyan natural gas flowingagain. Eni and interim government officials have said they expect Eni toresume operations under the terms of contracts signed under the Gadhafiregime.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Diplomats Meet in Turkey to Discuss Libyas Future (Voice ofAmerica)By: Dorian Jones

25 August 2011

Istanbul, Turkey, is hosting a high-level diplomatic meeting of some 30countries on what support can be given to Libya following the ousting ofleader Moammar Gadhafi. The attending countries belong to the LibyanContact Group and include the United States, European, western Arab andAfrican nations, as well as Libya's rebel government, known as the NationalTransitional Council [NTC]. Money topped the agenda.

The nearly 30 countries and organizations of the Libya Contact Group calledfor an expedited process to unfreeze the billions of dollars in Libyan assets

for use by the rebels' NTC. The gathering was described as a technicalmeeting ahead of next week's meeting of the group in Paris. But the head ofpolitical affairs for the NTC, Fatih Baja, said concrete steps were taken tounfreeze some of the funds.

"There are not promises, but I think something on the ground is moving. Ithink [we'll] get $2.5 billion by the end of the month. I think we need more,but for us it's something that will help us," said Baja.

The Libyan assets were frozen in February by a United Nations resolutionimposing tough sanctions on Gadhafi in response to his use of violence

against protesters. It is estimated that around $150 billion of Libyan assetsare frozen worldwide under the U.N. sanctions.

Addressing the Istanbul gathering, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglumade an appeal to all those attending to work towards unfreezing all Libyanassets.


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"We need to take action within the U.N. Security Council to institute the legalframework for the alleviation of the NTC urgent financial needs. Especiallyfinding a solution to the usage to the frozen Libyan assets by the NTC is ofcritical importance," said Davutoglu.

It remains unclear whether U.N. permanent members Russia and Chinawould support ending the freezing of the funds. Releasing the frozen assetsis proving to be a legally complex affair. South Africa's opposition has furthercomplicated matters. But Libyan ambassador to the UAE and NTC memberAref Ali Nayed said they urgently need $5 billion.

"We need urgent medical supply. We need food supply. We [need] medicine.We need spare parts to repair infrastructure. We need communication gearto keep in touch with all the local councils, and to make sure policinghappens properly between all local communities. So there is a lot of need,"

said Nayed.

The head of the NTC, Mahmoud Jibril, said Thursday the release of the fundsis crucial to stabilizing Libya. He made the comment during a visit to ItalyThursday, where he received a pledge that $500 million held in Italian bankswould be unfrozen.

The United States introduced a draft resolution late Wednesday proposingthe release of up to $500 million for international humanitarian organizationsand to help fund a U.N. humanitarian appeal. Another $500 million would beused for the purchase of amenities. A vote is expected Thursday or Friday.

But Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel said consideration shouldbe given to how the money is distributed.

"How the money goes to the new regime is more important than the fact thatmoney is going to the regime. You are talking about a country that has nogovernment [and] no institutions, and the rebels, for all the good they havedone, are not necessarily known for [their] principles on governance anddiligence and stuff. Therefore, it's important to do this with institutionbuilding," said Ozel.

The Istanbul meeting also covered the reconstruction of institutions. But

observers warn that will take time. The message from the NTC is that time isnot what the country has.

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What Happens to Libyan Oil After Qaddafi? (The Atlantic)The country's "sweet" oil reserves have a disproportionate effect onworld supplies and European economies.


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By Olga Belogolova Aug 25 2011, 9:22 AM ET25 August 2011

As Libyan rebels continue to hunt for Muammar el-Qaddafi, the future of

Libya hangs in the balance. But so does the future of Libyan oil.

Although a victory by rebel forces would remove an oppressive regime, itwould simultaneously remove a unifying principle from the highly tribalcoalition of rebel forces, and would potentially endanger what in 2010 madeup 92 percent of the nation's government revenues: oil and gas.

"The early days of transition could go well--or not," said Kevin Book,managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington-based policy-analysis firm. "If they go poorly, oil infrastructure could be harmed."

"If 'Libya-ration' ends like Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait in 1991, it will be aPyrrhic and pyrotechnic victory, bullish for oil and bearish for [President]Obama," Book told National Journal."If 'Libya-ration' ends like U.S.drawdowns in Iraq, the results could still create an overhang that gooses oilprices up, rather than down."

When Iraqi forces withdrew from Kuwait in 1990, they left behind damage tomore than 80 percent of Kuwait's 950 operating oil wells. The most severedamage had been dealt to the production facilities, according to anassessment by the Federation of American Scientists.

In 2010, the U.S. drawdown from Iraq left that country's vast network of oiland gas pipelines vulnerable to damage. Some pipelines were sabotaged,leading to supply disruptions and requiring the burial of some above-groundpipelines to decrease their vulnerability to attack.

It's not yet clear what damage the six-month uprising has done to Libya's oiland gas infrastructure, but a post-Qaddafi Libya might not ensure its safety,Book said. "The pipelines will be the most vulnerable point," should there besignificant fighting among rebel factions.

With Libya's economy reliant on its high-quality oil and gas reserves, the

North African nation's next government undoubtedly will utilize its lucrativenatural resources. "Whoever is in power is going to want to bring the [oil]companies back," Frank Verrastro, senior vice president and director of theEnergy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, told National Journal.


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While "just getting Libyans to get along with Libyans" will be one hurdle,another will be to reassure foreign companies that the nation is stableenough for them to resume working in Libya.Major oil companies from Italy, France, Germany, and Spain have drilling

operations in Libya, with 85 percent of the country's oil and gas going tothose countries, according to the International Energy Agency. Thoseoperations were suspended earlier this year when Libya's civil war broke out.

Italian oil company Eni SpA, the largest foreign producer in Libya, and otherfirms will be asking themselves: "Is this a place you can send people towork?" Book said. Thirteen percent of Eni SpA's revenue came from Libyabefore the conflict began in February. In July, the company cut its full-yearproduction target because of the disruption in Libya.

Energy consultant Wood MacKenzie said this week that even after hostilities

end, it could take three years for Libyan oil production to return to pre-conflict levels. But others are more optimistic.

Verrastro predicted that Libyan production could come back up by 400,000to 500,000 barrels a day within six months.

And Samuel Ciszuk, senior Middle East and North Africa energy analyst withIHS Energy, said that barring any serious damage to infrastructure--andassuming some degree of political stability--Libyan production could be up to1.2 million barrels a day by this time next year. Depending on policies andinfrastructure, the country could potentially produce 250,000 to 300,000

barrels a day within three months, he added. "It will surely ease a lot of theworries" over crude supply, Ciszuk said.

Before February, Libya exported about 1.6 million barrels of oil a day. Whilethat's only about 2 percent of the world's oil production and a virtual pindrop compared with production from its 11 partners in the Organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries, the value of Libya's oil lies in its quality, notits quantity.

Libyan oil is referred to as "sweet" crude oil, which can be used with verylittle refinement.

Most oil from Saudi Arabia and other countries is of a lesser quality. It costsmore for U.S. refineries, among the most advanced in the world, to turn thatoil into gasoline, while some European and Asian refineries are not evenequipped to refine the "sour" lower quality crude.

"Libya's oil is oil that refineries today can use today," Book explained.


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That makes European and Asian markets much more reliant on the high-quality crude coming from countries such as Libya, Nigeria, and Algeria. WithLibya almost entirely out of the equation for the time being, refiners inEurope end up turning to Nigeria and Algeria, putting them in direct

competition with the U.S., which gets most of its sweet crude from those twocountries.

That's why Libyan oil production--or lack thereof--can have such adisproportionate effect on international gas prices. As companies shut downproduction and evacuated staff in Libya and markets feared the spread ofunrest in the region in February, world oil prices hit their highest levels since2008.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Opinion: NATO Nations Set to Reap Spoils of Libya War. (Al Jazeera)

As rebels take Tripoli, foreign powers are eyeing the prize of Libya'shigh quality crude oil.By: Rachel Shabi25 August 2011

France's President Nicolas Sarkozy, like his counterparts in the UK, Italy, theUS and other countries, is keen to garner oil contracts once a newgovernment emerges in Libya.

It looks like the more telling news on Libya has migrated to the businesspages. With jubilant reporting of Gaddafi's imminent downfall seizing

headlines, it's the financial pages that have the clinical analysis. So, forinstance, it is in this section that the Independent reports a "dash for profit inthe post-war Libya carve up".

Similarly, Reuters, under the headline, "Investors eye promise, pitfalls inpost-Gaddafi Libya" noted that a new government in that country could"herald a bonanza for Western companies and investors".

Before Tripoli has completely fallen, before Gaddafi and his supporters havestepped down and before the blood dries on the bodies that have yet to becounted, Western powers are already eyeing up what they view us just

rewards for the intervention.

There are no more illusions over how far NATO forces exceeded the UNsecurity resolution that mandated its campaign. For months, NATO officialsinsisted it was operating within brief - an air campaign, designed to protectcivilians under threat of attack. But now it is described as an "open secret"that NATO countries were operating undercover, on the ground.


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Add to that the reluctance to broker a negotiated exit, the practice ofadvising, arming and training the rebels, and the spearheading of anescalation in violence and it looks like NATO's job morphed from protectingcivilians to regime change.

Oil for regime changeAnd there's a reason for this sudden rush of honesty over its involvement. Asalluded to by the Economist, each country's contribution to the NATO effortin Libya is expected to have some impact on how much of the spoils it getsin the looming post-war period.

The French Le Figaro newspaper is keen to talk up Libya as "Sarkozy's war",while the British Telegraph drops references to the involvement of Britishmilitary and intelligence officers, including MI6 and the RAF.

Aiding the Libyan rebel forces of the National Transitional Council hascreated a debt of gratitude. In the context of responsibility for what happensnext in Libya, an anonymous British official told the Economist that NATO'sinvolvement in the Libyan uprising means that: "Now we own it."

As Reuters reports, "Western companies look well positioned as billions ofdollars in oil exploration and construction contracts come up for grabs aspart of the reconstruction effort."

Leaving aside the massive profits from the rebuilding that Libya is now goingto need, there are vast oil spoils to distribute. The Libyan oil industry

produced 1.6 million barrels a day prior to the war. The country is thought tohave 46 billion barrels of reserves - the largest in Africa.

Winners and losersAnd this is what the information manager at the rebel-controlled Arabian GulfOil Company, Libya's largest oil producer, had to say about who it nowintends to trade with: "We don't have a problem with Western countries likethe Italians, French and UK companies. But we may have some politicalissues with Russia, China and Brazil." Those last three countries weren'tinvolved in the NATO mission in Libya.

None of that is to bemoan the downfall of a terrifying dictator who has keptLibyans crushed and brutalised for decades. Gaddafi's demise is welcome;the courage of Libyans who fought his regime is staggering and only a stonewould fail to be moved by their celebration of freedom now.

But it does not negate those factors to point out that NATO countries havenot previously seemed bothered by the bloodiness of this dictator's 42-year-rule - or that the striking feature of the West's relationship to the Middle East


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has been its cynical alliances with repressive rulers, propped up to shutdown their populations while opening up resources to foreign access.

It is exactly this track record - of being a corrosive influence and a self-

interested broker - that has made Middle Eastern countries wary of anyWestern intervention in the tide of revolutions now sweeping the region.Libyan rebels asked for help, but were wary of what was viewed as anecessary alliance with Western forces. It does the flow of Arab uprisings adisservice to now glorify NATO's mission. A liberal intervention forhumanitarian ends may be the comfortable hook; but securing assets andresources, as usual, is the real goal.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rebel Athor Admits Leading Deadly South Sudan Attacks (Voice ofAmerica)

By: John Tanza25 August 2011

South Sudan is accusing Khartoum of backing a cross-border attack at Kakatown in Upper Nile state by rebel groups that left over 72 people dead. Thedead include at least 15 Southern Army soldiers.

The Minister of Information in Upper Nile state, Peter Lam, says SouthSudans army has since pushed the militia back out the area.

The spokesman for the South Sudan army says the group responsible for the

raid was a mixture of Sudanese and local militias under the command ofrenegade generals Gordon Kong and George Athor.

Athor admits fighting in Kaka, but says his force does not depend onKhartoum for support.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sudanese Risk Post-Independence Statelessness - UNHCR (ReutersAfrica)By: Katie Nguyen

25 August 2011LONDON Aug 25 (Reuters) - Large Sudanese communities could becomestateless, deprived of basic rights such as access to jobs and education,unless Khartoum and Juba ensure citizenship for all following South Sudan'sindependence, the U.N. refugee chief said on Thursday.

Khartoum has excluded dual nationality for southerners, and last monthSudan's parliament gave initial approval to cancel the citizenship of anyone


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taking up South Sudanese nationality after South Sudan becameindependent on July 9.

The move highlights the legal uncertainty of hundreds of thousands of

southerners who have been living in the north for decades. Analysts say thequestion of citizenship could raise new tensions between the two sides thatended a two-decade war in 2005 and have yet to finalise their border.

The issue is of particular concern for the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR),which launched a campaign on Thursday to highlight the plight of anestimated 12 million stateless people around the world. They do not exist onpaper and are not considered nationals by any country.

"We are afraid that many people that had established long-lastingrelationships in the north (of Sudan) and have very few contacts in the south

might fall through the cracks if their nationality is not recognised (by eitherstate)," the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres, toldAlertNet in an interview.

Guterres said UNHCR was working with both sides to make sure that everySudanese was granted a nationality "to avoid what has happened, forinstance, with the break-up of the Soviet Union in the past".

Statelessness exacerbates poverty, creates social tensions and can dividefamilies. The problem is most widespread in Southeast Asia, Central Asia,Eastern Europe and the Middle East, UNHCR said.

Yet only 66 countries are parties to the 1954 Convention relating to theStatus of Stateless Persons, and only 38 countries have signed theConvention on the Reduction of Statelessness which marks its 50thanniversary on Aug. 30. Continued...

"That shows not only how difficult it has been to raise awareness in relationto the problem, but also some resistance of states because this deals withthe heart of the concept of sovereignty -- nationality laws which, to a certainextent, are sometimes responsible for the existence of statelessness,"Guterres said.

And yet there was a compelling humanitarian argument for states to sign upto the conventions, he added, citing the "dramatic circumstances" in whichmany stateless people lived.

"Can you imagine that you are now living in the slums of a city in thedeveloping world? That you have no nationality, no ID card?" Guterres said."You cannot send your children to school, you have no access to official


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medical services, you do not have the right to work, to own property. Thatyou can be jailed and forgotten in jail."

The other argument being used to persuade governments to sign up was

financial, he said. Failure to recognise stateless people meant many areunable to contribute to the economy.

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Few African Leaders Show up for Famine Summit (LA Times)By: Robin Dixon25 August 2011

Only four of 54 member nations attend the African Union donors conferencein Ethiopia, aimed at raising money to ease the crisis in the Horn of Africa.

Johannesburg, South Africa Most of Africa's heads of state failed to turn upThursday for the first African Union donor conference in Ethiopia to raisemoney for the Horn of Africa famine, leaving activists disappointed with thepledges.

Of the African Union's 54 member nations, only the heads of Ethiopia,Equatorial Guinea and Djibouti participated in the conference in Addis Ababa,along with the head of the transitional government in Somalia, the countryhit hardest by the famine. Critics accused African leaders of failing to makegood on their rhetoric about finding African solutions for African problems.

Activists said leaders had pledged about $50 million, but much of it was "inkind" assistance, with few details given on the services being offered.

The African Development Bank, meanwhile, said it would donate $300 millionfor long-term development in the Horn of Africa.

The African Union had come under fire for delaying the conference forseveral weeks because some leaders had conflicts in their schedules.

Nicanor Sabula, spokesman for Africans Act 4 Africa, a coalition of civil

organizations, said the failure of leaders to appear at the conference as theHorn of Africa faced its greatest crisis in two decades was "disappointing andembarrassing."

With 12 million people in crisis, and famine declared in many parts ofsouthern Somalia, the United Nations has appealed for $2.4 billion. Despitepledges of more than $500 million from the United States, $228 million from


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the European Union and $630 million from individual European countries, thetarget has not been met.

It is reportedly the region's worst drought in more than 50 years. Tens of

thousands of people have died and 1.5 million have left their homes inSomalia in search of food. Five regions of Somalia have been declaredfamine-hit and two others are expected to be added to the list.

At the conference, Andrew Andasi, an 11-year-old Ghanaian who saw imagesof the famine on television and launched a radio campaign for donations,said he had raised $4,000. Andrew called on African leaders to help those inneed, especially women and children.

Activists said some countries that could afford to do more have not.

"We were expecting that the heads of states from Africa would come up andshow solidarity with the people of the Horn of Africa," Sabula said. "It startsto reinforce the perception of the AU as a club of presidents.... It doesn'tsend a very good message to the people of Africa. I know people will be verydisappointed."

Africans Act 4 Africa set the $50-million target, believing it to be modest butrealistic. Appealing to the countries' representatives Thursday, Asha RoseMigiro, the U.N. deputy secretary-general, said the number of people in crisishad not peaked, and cited challenges in reaching those in need, according toAgence France-Presse news service.

"The future of an entire generation hangs in the balance," she said.

Kanayo Nwanze, head of the U.N. International Fund for AgriculturalDevelopment, said the donor meeting was an important development.

"Africa should not wait for the international community to solve itsproblems," Nwanze said.

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Instructors Struggle to Mold Militias from War-Ravaged Somalia in aNational Army(The Washington Post)By: Associated Press25 August 2011


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MOGADISHU, Somalia The instructors whistle tweets, and around 50Somalis drawing paychecks from the U.S. government punch the air in frontof them with varying degrees of coordination and enthusiasm.

The men, destined to be part of the Somali governments VIP protectionteam, are practicing karate at a newly built parade ground in the capital.Instructors say the lessons are less about self-defense and more about tryingto mold a collection of ragtag militias into a national army a problemadvisers have also faced in Afghanistan.

Whoever has picked a gun and a rag of a uniform out here is called asoldier. But they dont have the basis of what it takes to be a professional,said Capt. Frank Kaweru, the African Unions chief instructor at the al-JaziraSomali military base. Discipline is the most important thing for them tolearn. I insist on it.

In recent weeks Somali forces have shot civilians, each other, and lootedfood aid meant for famine-hit families. Yet these are the forces many aidagencies must rely on to protect vast amounts of food pouring into Somalia.They are also supposed to help the 9,000-strong African Union force securethe countrys capital after Islamist rebels withdrew from bases there thismonth.

But many now fear that with the Islamists gone, Somalias armed forces still organized largely along clan lines may simply fight each other and tryto extort money from the civilians they are meant to protect.

A real danger exists that the warlords and their militia groups will moveforward to fill the vacuum created by al-Shababs departure, said AugustineMahiga, the U.N.s special envoy to Somalia, after al-Shabab pulled out.

Still, Somalias armed forces 10,000 soldiers, 5,000 police and assortedallied militias have seen some improvements over the past year. SinceDecember, the soldiers have been receiving a regular $100 paycheck everymonth from the Italian and American governments. The police receive thesame amount through the U.N.

International accounting firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers and the AU forceadminister the army payments, handing each man his cash in person toprevent theft by commanders.

The soldiers have also received new uniforms. Al-Jazira has been transformedfrom a wasteland dotted with a few ragged tents and no fence to a fortifiedcamp with guard towers, razor wire, classrooms and a school. Vast whitetents can house over a thousand trainees at a time. Before, they often slept


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under trees and those who werent paid sometimes sold their weapons andbullets to feed their families.

Last year the European Union began training 2,000 Somali soldiers for six

months at a time in Uganda. The U.S. helped by funding transportation fortrainees to and from Somalia, paying for equipment and salaries for thesoldiers, and supporting the Ugandan army.

EU adviser Patrick Geysen said the first phase of training had beencompleted for nearly 2,000 men. The program has been extended, he said,and another batch of 500 Somalis will begin training in October, focusing onmidlevel and junior officers.

AU officers also say they are working more closely with the Somali army thanthey used to. AU front-line units were seen sharing equipment and sleeping

quarters with Somali soldiers, something unthinkable only a year ago whenthere was deep distrust between the forces.

We are fighting shoulder to shoulder with our brothers, Somali Lt. MahadAbdullahi Mohamud said proudly.

But most Somali soldiers are loyal to individuals, not to the weak U.N.-backed Somali government, and most brigades are still organized along clanlines. Analysts say unless the government widely perceived as divided andcorrupt must improve its performance and command loyalty.

The soldiers at Camp al-Jazira say all they can do is try to break some of thehabits picked up over 20 years of civil war. As he watched a platoon ofsoldiers go by, struggling to march in step, instructor Kaweru said he knowsthere is still a long, long way to go.

At least we have started something, he said. We need to hand overSomalia to a professionalized army. We will not stay here forever.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Somalia: World Must Fund Famine-Wracked Somalia to PreventGeneration Dying , UN Warns. (All Africa)

By: Non-Attributed Author25 August 2011

African leaders convened a fundraising conference today for famine-wrackedSomalia, where tens of thousands of people have already died and 3.2million are on the brink of starvation, with a top United Nations officialwarning that the crisis stretches far beyond hunger to issues of health,protection and livelihood.


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"The future of an entire generation hangs in the balance," Deputy Secretary-General Asha-Rose Migiro told the pledging conference hosted by the AfricanUnion (AU) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

"If we do not respond, the consequences will reverberate for years. We willbe asked how we stood by and watched a generation die, how we allowed acrisis to become a catastrophe, when we could have stopped it."

She noted that communities had already been shattered and a generation oforphans would bear the scars of hunger for the rest of their lives.

Mr. Migiro stressed the multiple facets of the crisis, including public health,with disease, including cholera and measles, threatening to spreadthroughout Mogadishu, the capital, and beyond. "We must do everything to

ensure that affected communities have enough clean water, medicine andhygiene supplies to stop it spreading further," she said.

"This is also a protection crisis, where women face the threat of rape inovercrowded camps, where orphaned children are lost and scared, with nosense of future, where refugees are being preyed upon by armed gangs andbandits during their long walk to safety."It is also a crisis of livelihoods, with thousands of households having soldtheir assets to keep themselves alive. "Pastoralists have lost their livestock:they will only be able to survive future environmental or economic shocks if

they can rebuild their resilience," she added.

Ms. Migiro emphasized the urgent need for the Transitional FederalGovernment (TFG) in the war-torn and faction-riven country to take up thesechallenges to assist and deliver food relief and basic services in areas that itcontrols, and for the international community to fully support the TFG so thatit can exercise its responsibilities to protect civilians.

She also highlighted the need to build long-term sustainability and resilienceso that future shortages can be averted by taking appropriate agriculturalsteps to end the cycle of recurring crises.

She called on the TFG to step up its own outreach and reconciliation effortsto build sustainable peace in a country that has not had a functioning centralgovernment for past two decades, during which internecine fighting spawnedby warlords and Islamic militants has killed countless thousands of peopleand driven 1.4 million others from their homes.


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The TFG, supported by the 6,200-strong UN-backed African Union Mission inSomalia (AMISOM), recently expanded its control over Mogadishu after Al-Shabaab Islamic insurgents withdrew from nearly all the city.

Earlier this month Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's Special RepresentativeAugustine Mahiga called for greater international aid to enable theGovernment to move into the country's south, which is still controlled by Al-Shabaab.

Ms. Migiro noted that while the situation outside Somalia is not expected toreach famine proportions, millions of people are also struggling to survive inEthiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti, after the worst drought in decades.

"The suffering is real and widespread and we cannot afford to lose themomentum for action," she said, noting that Kenyans and Ethiopians, even

while confronting their own difficulties, are also hosting hundreds ofthousands of Somali refugees, who have fled conflict and famine and nowlive in vast camps.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) today warned that efforts tokeep farmers and pastoralists on their feet, prevent the crisis from worseningand speed progress toward recovery are not being adequately funded.

Support for activities outlined in FAO's "Road map for Recovery" a $161million package designed to restore livelihoods and build the resilience ofpopulations in the face of climate and other shocks has so far been

insufficient, with only $57.3 million paid up or in the pipeline to date, theagency said in a news release.

It noted that high cereal prices continue in the Horn of Africa, as cerealsupply is declining and will not be replenished until the year's end, providedthere is adequate rainfall. Livestock conditions continue to deteriorate, andthe increasing burden of accumulated debts continues to erode both urbanand rural households' ability to purchase food.

"We have the know-how, including frameworks, institutions, technology andhuman capacities to eradicate famine from the Horn of Africa, but we lack

predictable resource flows to achieve that outcome," states a documentprepared for the Addis Abba meeting by the AU in collaboration with thethree Rome-based UN food agencies FAO, the International Fund forAgricultural Development (IFAD) and the World Food Programme (WFP).----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

African Union to Hold Delayed Fundraiser for Famine Relief. (CNN)By: CNN Wire Staff


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August 25, 2011

The African Union plans to host a delayed summit Thursday to raise funds forfamine victims amid mounting criticism over the continent's weak response

to the disaster.The meeting originally planned for August 9 was postponed this month evenas the organization called on urgent aid to the drought-struck Horn of Africaregion.

"Urgent humanitarian assistance is crucial to alleviate the impact of thedrought, which has deprived people from water, sanitation, health, basicfood and nutritional needs," the 54-nation body said in a statementannouncing the delay.It did not give a reason for postponing the meeting, which will be held at itsheadquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

A drought in the Horn of Africa region straddling Ethiopia, Kenya and Somaliahas left nearly 12 million people in need of assistance.

Somalia is especially badly hit, with a famine declared in some parts of thenation.Relief efforts in Somalia have been hindered by the ongoing battle betweenIslamist rebels and the transitional government, which holds little swaybeyond Mogadishu.

Aid agencies have urged the international community to ramp up help as

thousands flee Somalia each week in search of food and water -- manywalking for days in the sweltering sun to refugee camps in Kenya andEthiopia.

The meeting comes as aid groups urge the continent's leaders to step uptheir efforts."The African Union has so far pledged only $500,000 for the aid effort, andmost key governments have pledged even less or nothing at all," Oxfam saidin a statement this month.Only a handful of African nations have donated to the effort, according toOxfam.

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