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Wed, Jun 29 2011

EQUATORIAL GUINEA 29-30 Jun 2011 African Union leadersmeet for 17th Ordinary Summit

Anxiety could be high at the June summit of the 54-nation African Union: revolution is in the air, and risk

is high for the host country, among other AU members. The 54-nation bloc has to choose responsescarefully: praise for pro-democracy uprisings could encourage them, while a blind eye to leaders whowon't step down could be construed as tacit support for tyranny - or AU powerlessness. Libya, a foundingmember of the organization modeled on the European Union, is a case in point. Other main AU issuesare the strife in Cote DIvoire and security in southern Sudan.

The full AU summit takes place in a city built especially for the occasion near the capital, Malabo. It will bepreceded by six days of meetings.

The host, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, is a class of leader targeted in the uprisings in the north ofthe continent: he has ruled tiny Equatorial Guinea since 1979, when he seized power in a coup; he exertsalmost total control over the political system; and, though oil has given the country wealth, there is littlesign it has trickled down to ordinary citizens and made their lives easier. He is being criticized for a

clampdown ahead of the summit on groups planning demonstrations during the event.

The bloc has responded to the Egyptian uprising with seeming approval: on 16 Feb the bloc expressed"solidarity with the Egyptian people whose desire for democracy is consistent with the relevantinstruments of the AU and the continent's commitment to promote democratization, good governance andrespect for human rights."

The bloc has not turned a blind eye to Muammar Gaddafy's response to the uprising in Libya, and on Feb23 it condemned "disproportionate force" against the protesters. This could be as far as the bloc is willingto go with scolds to leaders who put down their uprisings with force: any one of them could survive theturmoil and be present at the June summit. Gaddafy is a founder of the bloc, and is likely to be a majorsource of its funding.

The 16th African Union summit, held in Addis Ababa in January failed to find answers for the Novemberpresidential election dispute roiling Cote DIvoire. The presidents of South Africa, Tanzania, Mauritania,Burkina Faso and Chad have been assigned to try to negotiate a deal that will end the impasse. TheUnited Nations has endorsed the election of Alassane Ouattara but his opponent, President LaurentGbagbo, refuses to leave office. The Security Council warns that civil war could return to the West Africancountry because of the deadlock over leadership. The country suffered a civil war in 2002.

In Sudan, the separation of southern Sudan from the north the high point of the 2005 peace agreementthat ended decades of civil war is proceeding more calmly than anyone expected, relieving the AU ofone set of anxieties. The remaining problem relates to the oil-rich region of Abyei between Sudan and thenew South Sudan. The borders are unresolved, and conflict is growing.

Planning meetings precede the summit from 23 Jun. (WRITTEN Mar 2011)

RELATED READING:

Former U.N. Official Alarmed Over Africas Silence on Libya (VOA 1 Mar 2011) http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Former-UN-Official-Alarmed-Over-Africas-Silence-on-Libya-117209223.html

African Unionhttp://www.au.int/en/

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Former-UN-Official-Alarmed-Over-Africas-Silence-on-Libya-117209223.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Former-UN-Official-Alarmed-Over-Africas-Silence-on-Libya-117209223.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Former-UN-Official-Alarmed-Over-Africas-Silence-on-Libya-117209223.htmlhttp://www.au.int/en/http://www.au.int/en/http://www.au.int/en/http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Former-UN-Official-Alarmed-Over-Africas-Silence-on-Libya-117209223.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Former-UN-Official-Alarmed-Over-Africas-Silence-on-Libya-117209223.html

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