african animal agriculture: grasping opportunities as a great livestock transition gets under way
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Jimmy Smith at the 6th All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Nairobi, Kenya, 27–30 October 2014TRANSCRIPT
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African animal agriculture:Grasping opportunities as a great
livestock transition gets under way
6th All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureNairobi, Kenya, 27 – 30 October 2014
Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI
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Key messages
• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggsis driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector
• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.We need to work now to influence how it is met.
• The growth presents smallholders, who provide most ofthese commodities today, with big new opportunities
• The growth also presents Africa with many big andnew equity, health and environmental challenges
• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help, not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health
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Rising demand for meat, milk and eggs is a global phenomenon . . .
. . . but demand is greatest inSouth Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
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In 2012, cattle meat and milk were 2 of the top 4highest value agricultural commodities in Africa
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Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year
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In terms of meat, milk and eggs,developing countries are where all the action is
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Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed
1980 1990 2002 2015 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
developingdeveloped
Mill
ion
met
ric t
onne
s
FAO 2006
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To 2050, demand for meat & dairy in SS Africa & South Asia outstrips that for cereals & roots/tubers
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Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities
developed developing SSA SA
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
cerealsroot/tubermeatdairy
% c
hang
e 20
05/0
7 to
205
0
Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
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In the next 35 years, production of milk,
poultry meat & eggsand ruminant meat will
skyrocket in Africa/Middle East
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% increase in production of livestock products:2000–2050
Raw milk Monogastric meat & eggs
Ruminant meat0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
EuropeLatin AmericaAfrica/Middle East
%
Herrero et al. 2014
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What’s special aboutAfrican smallholder livestock food production?
• 90% of animal products are produced and consumedin the same country or region
• Most are produced by smallholders
• Over 70% of livestock productsare sold ‘informally’
• 500 million smallholders produce 80% of the developing world’s food
• 43% of the agriculturalworkforce is female
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What’s special aboutAfrican mixed crop-livestock production systems?
• Mixed systems are a bigsource of ruminant meatin 2000 and 2050– Europe: 42% (temperate)– L America: 48% (humid)– Africa/M East: 38% (arid)
• More than 50% of milk in allregions is from mixed systems
• Big increases in milk by2050 continue to be inmixed systems, esp. inAfrica and M East
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What’s special aboutAfrican smallholder livestock keepers?
East Africa
• 1 million Kenyan small-holders keep Africa’slargest dairy herd
• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers
• Small- and large-scaleKenyan poultry and dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
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Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how
Scenario #1Africa meets
livestock demand byimporting livestock products
Scenario #2Africa meets
livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3Africa meets
livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systems
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Scenario #1: Bad news for Africa’s economies,employment and small-scale livestock livelihoods
Downsides of importing milk, meatand eggs to meet Africa’s rising demand:
• A huge import billstraining foreign exchange
• Little growth ofindigenous livestockenterprises
• Industrial-scale pollutionin developed countries
• Mass emigration of youth(and labour) fromdeveloping countries
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Downsides of meeting the rising demand for animal-source foods mostly via private large-scale industrial production units:
• Relevant know-how is restricted to a few enterprises
• Employment opportunities, esp.for women and youth, are lost
• Increased demand for feed and waterdegrades natural resources
• Industrial-scale livestock productionpollutes the environment and incurs large financialas well as environmental costs
• The synergies of mixed crop-livestock farming systemsare lost as animal and crop production become separate
Scenario #2: Bad news for Africa’s equity gaps, environments and national economies
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Scenario #3: The opportunity is now!
Upsides of using the transition period for transformation:
• The coming livestock transitions and consolidations offer unprecedented opportunities for millions of African’s to improve their food production as well as their health, livelihoods and environments
• But this will not happen without integrated and enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions − all provided at sufficient scale
• Of the world’s 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, some:﹣1/3 will find alternate livelihoods to livestock﹣1/3 will succeed at market-oriented livestock livelihoods﹣1/3 could go either way
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AACAA’s 5 themes will shape this livestock transition
The five themes that are the focus of this year’s AACAA will shape the future of African animal agriculture
• African smallholderlivestock farming
• African pastoralherding
• African livestockmarketing
• Livestock futures forAfrica’s youth
• Capacity in Africananimal agriculture
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African smallholder livestock farming
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African pastoral herding
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Africa livestock marketing
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Livestock futures for Africa’s youth
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Capacity in African animal agriculture
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Key messages
• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggsis driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector
• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.We need to work now to influence how it is met.
• The growth presents smallholders, who provide most ofthese commodities today, with big new opportunities
• The growth also presents Africa with many big andnew equity, health and environmental challenges
• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help, not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health
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Thank you!
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Livestock-based options for economic well-being in Africa
AACAA side event Tuesday 28 October 14:30−18:00followed by ILRI-hosted dinner
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The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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