africa summary 2011h2
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
wwwinformatandmcom
Mobile Trend Analysis
For further details about the data in these slides click on the URL links to the live sites below each data set
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analystsupportinformacom copy Informa UK Limited 2011 All rights reserved
Africa
Africa remains focused on data market growth
Africa Highlights
By end 4Q11 Africarsquos mobile subscriptions reached at 64598 million translating to a penetration of 6045 and a year-on-year growth of 1912
Nigeria maintained the market lead in the African continent with 9522 million mobile subscribers and a penetration of 5822 in 4Q11
MTN Nigeria continues to be Africarsquos biggest operator with 4164 million mobile subscribers as of 4Q11
Ethiopia to have a CAGR of 171 by 2017 the highest in the region
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions reached 154 million in 4Q11 with South Africa leading with 7 million Vodacom South Africa remained the top African mobile broadband operator in 4Q11 with 35 million subscribers
HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscription by 2017 representing 742 of the total
Africa see three commercial LTE network launches
Mobile subscription data
African Summary 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Subscriptions (m) 5425 5666 5895 6163 6455
Net adds (m) 311 242 229 268 292
Quarterly growth () 609 445 405 454 474
Penetration () 5193 5393 5580 5800 6041
000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
African subscriptions vs quarterly growth
Subscriptions (mn) Quarterly growth ()
Increased growth rate in 2H11 see the regionrsquos penetration rate surpass 60
Nigeria 15 Egypt
12
South Africa 9
Morocco 7
Algeria 6
Kenya 4
Others 48
Share of African subscriptions 4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Egypt Egypt Mali Ethiopia Morocco Uganda
Su
bscri
pti
on
ne
t a
dd
itio
ns
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Quarterly net additions comparison 4Q10 and 4Q11
4Q10
4Q11
Egypt 13
Ethiopia 13
Nigeria 11
Sudan 7
South Africa 6
Uganda 4
Others 44
Share of African net additions 4Q11
Subscriptions
Country Focus Nigeria
MTN 14
Etisalat 49
Airtel 36
Glo Mobile 1
Share of Nigerian net additions 4Q11
By end 4Q11 Nigeria had a total of 9522 million mobile subscribers and a total penetration of 5822 The country experienced a positive growth rate of 344 as operators recover from the negative growth rates brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
Increased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 452
in 2Q11 to 44 in 4Q11 However it continued to maintain the market lead
with over 41 million subscribers
Etisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11 amounting to 187 million and representing 49 of the total net additions over the quarter
Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
-5
0
5
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
n)
Subscriptions (million) Quarterly Growth ()
Glo Mobile 21
MTN 44
Etisalat 11
Airtel 19
Rest 5
Share of Nigerian subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus Egypt Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11
0
2
4
6
8
10
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
Egypt subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
ECMS 1
Etisalat 35
Vodafone Egypt 64
Share Egypt net additions 4Q11
By the end of 4Q11 Egypt had 8082 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 9326 The year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 1832 compared with 234 in 4Q10
Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44 market share and 3636 million subscribers Total net additions for the quarter stood at 374 million
ECMS 36
Etisalat 17
Vodafone 44
Share of Egypt subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
South Africa subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
At the end of 4Q11 South Africa had 5824 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 11453 The quarterly growth rate stood at 343 compared to 055 in 2Q11
Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44 market share and 2535 million subscribers However it is closely followed by MTN with 2203 million subscriber
MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 107 million This represented 55 of the total net additions in 4Q11
Cell C 16
MTN 38
Vodacom 44
8ta 2
Share of South Africa subscriptions 4Q11
Cell C 14
MTN 55
8ta 15
Vodacom 16
Share of South Africa net additions 4Q11
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Africa Highlights
By end 4Q11 Africarsquos mobile subscriptions reached at 64598 million translating to a penetration of 6045 and a year-on-year growth of 1912
Nigeria maintained the market lead in the African continent with 9522 million mobile subscribers and a penetration of 5822 in 4Q11
MTN Nigeria continues to be Africarsquos biggest operator with 4164 million mobile subscribers as of 4Q11
Ethiopia to have a CAGR of 171 by 2017 the highest in the region
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions reached 154 million in 4Q11 with South Africa leading with 7 million Vodacom South Africa remained the top African mobile broadband operator in 4Q11 with 35 million subscribers
HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscription by 2017 representing 742 of the total
Africa see three commercial LTE network launches
Mobile subscription data
African Summary 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Subscriptions (m) 5425 5666 5895 6163 6455
Net adds (m) 311 242 229 268 292
Quarterly growth () 609 445 405 454 474
Penetration () 5193 5393 5580 5800 6041
000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
African subscriptions vs quarterly growth
Subscriptions (mn) Quarterly growth ()
Increased growth rate in 2H11 see the regionrsquos penetration rate surpass 60
Nigeria 15 Egypt
12
South Africa 9
Morocco 7
Algeria 6
Kenya 4
Others 48
Share of African subscriptions 4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Egypt Egypt Mali Ethiopia Morocco Uganda
Su
bscri
pti
on
ne
t a
dd
itio
ns
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Quarterly net additions comparison 4Q10 and 4Q11
4Q10
4Q11
Egypt 13
Ethiopia 13
Nigeria 11
Sudan 7
South Africa 6
Uganda 4
Others 44
Share of African net additions 4Q11
Subscriptions
Country Focus Nigeria
MTN 14
Etisalat 49
Airtel 36
Glo Mobile 1
Share of Nigerian net additions 4Q11
By end 4Q11 Nigeria had a total of 9522 million mobile subscribers and a total penetration of 5822 The country experienced a positive growth rate of 344 as operators recover from the negative growth rates brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
Increased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 452
in 2Q11 to 44 in 4Q11 However it continued to maintain the market lead
with over 41 million subscribers
Etisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11 amounting to 187 million and representing 49 of the total net additions over the quarter
Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
-5
0
5
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
n)
Subscriptions (million) Quarterly Growth ()
Glo Mobile 21
MTN 44
Etisalat 11
Airtel 19
Rest 5
Share of Nigerian subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus Egypt Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11
0
2
4
6
8
10
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
Egypt subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
ECMS 1
Etisalat 35
Vodafone Egypt 64
Share Egypt net additions 4Q11
By the end of 4Q11 Egypt had 8082 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 9326 The year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 1832 compared with 234 in 4Q10
Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44 market share and 3636 million subscribers Total net additions for the quarter stood at 374 million
ECMS 36
Etisalat 17
Vodafone 44
Share of Egypt subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
South Africa subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
At the end of 4Q11 South Africa had 5824 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 11453 The quarterly growth rate stood at 343 compared to 055 in 2Q11
Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44 market share and 2535 million subscribers However it is closely followed by MTN with 2203 million subscriber
MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 107 million This represented 55 of the total net additions in 4Q11
Cell C 16
MTN 38
Vodacom 44
8ta 2
Share of South Africa subscriptions 4Q11
Cell C 14
MTN 55
8ta 15
Vodacom 16
Share of South Africa net additions 4Q11
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Mobile subscription data
African Summary 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Subscriptions (m) 5425 5666 5895 6163 6455
Net adds (m) 311 242 229 268 292
Quarterly growth () 609 445 405 454 474
Penetration () 5193 5393 5580 5800 6041
000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
African subscriptions vs quarterly growth
Subscriptions (mn) Quarterly growth ()
Increased growth rate in 2H11 see the regionrsquos penetration rate surpass 60
Nigeria 15 Egypt
12
South Africa 9
Morocco 7
Algeria 6
Kenya 4
Others 48
Share of African subscriptions 4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Egypt Egypt Mali Ethiopia Morocco Uganda
Su
bscri
pti
on
ne
t a
dd
itio
ns
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Quarterly net additions comparison 4Q10 and 4Q11
4Q10
4Q11
Egypt 13
Ethiopia 13
Nigeria 11
Sudan 7
South Africa 6
Uganda 4
Others 44
Share of African net additions 4Q11
Subscriptions
Country Focus Nigeria
MTN 14
Etisalat 49
Airtel 36
Glo Mobile 1
Share of Nigerian net additions 4Q11
By end 4Q11 Nigeria had a total of 9522 million mobile subscribers and a total penetration of 5822 The country experienced a positive growth rate of 344 as operators recover from the negative growth rates brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
Increased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 452
in 2Q11 to 44 in 4Q11 However it continued to maintain the market lead
with over 41 million subscribers
Etisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11 amounting to 187 million and representing 49 of the total net additions over the quarter
Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
-5
0
5
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
n)
Subscriptions (million) Quarterly Growth ()
Glo Mobile 21
MTN 44
Etisalat 11
Airtel 19
Rest 5
Share of Nigerian subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus Egypt Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11
0
2
4
6
8
10
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
Egypt subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
ECMS 1
Etisalat 35
Vodafone Egypt 64
Share Egypt net additions 4Q11
By the end of 4Q11 Egypt had 8082 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 9326 The year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 1832 compared with 234 in 4Q10
Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44 market share and 3636 million subscribers Total net additions for the quarter stood at 374 million
ECMS 36
Etisalat 17
Vodafone 44
Share of Egypt subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
South Africa subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
At the end of 4Q11 South Africa had 5824 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 11453 The quarterly growth rate stood at 343 compared to 055 in 2Q11
Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44 market share and 2535 million subscribers However it is closely followed by MTN with 2203 million subscriber
MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 107 million This represented 55 of the total net additions in 4Q11
Cell C 16
MTN 38
Vodacom 44
8ta 2
Share of South Africa subscriptions 4Q11
Cell C 14
MTN 55
8ta 15
Vodacom 16
Share of South Africa net additions 4Q11
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Country Focus Nigeria
MTN 14
Etisalat 49
Airtel 36
Glo Mobile 1
Share of Nigerian net additions 4Q11
By end 4Q11 Nigeria had a total of 9522 million mobile subscribers and a total penetration of 5822 The country experienced a positive growth rate of 344 as operators recover from the negative growth rates brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
Increased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 452
in 2Q11 to 44 in 4Q11 However it continued to maintain the market lead
with over 41 million subscribers
Etisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11 amounting to 187 million and representing 49 of the total net additions over the quarter
Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
-5
0
5
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
n)
Subscriptions (million) Quarterly Growth ()
Glo Mobile 21
MTN 44
Etisalat 11
Airtel 19
Rest 5
Share of Nigerian subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus Egypt Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11
0
2
4
6
8
10
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
Egypt subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
ECMS 1
Etisalat 35
Vodafone Egypt 64
Share Egypt net additions 4Q11
By the end of 4Q11 Egypt had 8082 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 9326 The year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 1832 compared with 234 in 4Q10
Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44 market share and 3636 million subscribers Total net additions for the quarter stood at 374 million
ECMS 36
Etisalat 17
Vodafone 44
Share of Egypt subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
South Africa subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
At the end of 4Q11 South Africa had 5824 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 11453 The quarterly growth rate stood at 343 compared to 055 in 2Q11
Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44 market share and 2535 million subscribers However it is closely followed by MTN with 2203 million subscriber
MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 107 million This represented 55 of the total net additions in 4Q11
Cell C 16
MTN 38
Vodacom 44
8ta 2
Share of South Africa subscriptions 4Q11
Cell C 14
MTN 55
8ta 15
Vodacom 16
Share of South Africa net additions 4Q11
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Country Focus Egypt Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11
0
2
4
6
8
10
60
80
100
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
Egypt subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
ECMS 1
Etisalat 35
Vodafone Egypt 64
Share Egypt net additions 4Q11
By the end of 4Q11 Egypt had 8082 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 9326 The year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 1832 compared with 234 in 4Q10
Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44 market share and 3636 million subscribers Total net additions for the quarter stood at 374 million
ECMS 36
Etisalat 17
Vodafone 44
Share of Egypt subscriptions 4Q11
Country Focus South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
South Africa subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
At the end of 4Q11 South Africa had 5824 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 11453 The quarterly growth rate stood at 343 compared to 055 in 2Q11
Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44 market share and 2535 million subscribers However it is closely followed by MTN with 2203 million subscriber
MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 107 million This represented 55 of the total net additions in 4Q11
Cell C 16
MTN 38
Vodacom 44
8ta 2
Share of South Africa subscriptions 4Q11
Cell C 14
MTN 55
8ta 15
Vodacom 16
Share of South Africa net additions 4Q11
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Country Focus South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Gro
wth
(
)
Subsc
riptions
(m)
South Africa subscription and quarterly growth 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth ()
At the end of 4Q11 South Africa had 5824 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 11453 The quarterly growth rate stood at 343 compared to 055 in 2Q11
Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44 market share and 2535 million subscribers However it is closely followed by MTN with 2203 million subscriber
MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 107 million This represented 55 of the total net additions in 4Q11
Cell C 16
MTN 38
Vodacom 44
8ta 2
Share of South Africa subscriptions 4Q11
Cell C 14
MTN 55
8ta 15
Vodacom 16
Share of South Africa net additions 4Q11
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Top 20 markets by growth in the year to end 4Q11
Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Subscription forecasts 2012-2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (m
illi
on
s)
Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Moro
cco
Sudan
Egypt
Cocircte
dIvoire
Senegal
Ghana
Nig
eria
Cam
ero
on
Kenya
Mali
Uganda
Tanza
nia
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep o
f Congo
Eth
iopia
CA
GR
(
)
Africa by CAGR 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
Forecasts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mil
lio
ns
2012
2017
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
3G4G trends
Africarsquos mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
3G defined as W-CDMA HSPA EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3GHSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Start date Country Operator Technology
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Sierra Leone
Africell W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
WiMAX-Mobile-2300
4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4Q11 Cape Verde T+ W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Guinea Republic
Orange Guinee W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Togo TogoCel W-CDMA-900
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa 3G4G subscriptions forecast by technology
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
3G subscriptions by country 4Q10 vs 4Q11
4Q10 4Q11
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Technology forecast 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africarsquos mobile subscriptions by 2017
Forecast for 3G Split
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
WCDMA-only 40714700 54829100 70211100 85961900 99306600 108669800
HSPA 36977300 68373700 118733100 191638000 289757000 408749000
1x EV-DO 3478600 5275300 8624300 14786300 23269800 33185800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
mil
lio
ns)
Africa subscription forecast by technology
2G and 25G(GSM GPRS EDGE 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA EV-DO)
35G (HSPA EV-DO Rev A) 4G (LTE)
South Africa 40
Nigeria 15
Egypt 7
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 25
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2012
South Africa 13 Nigeria
11
Egypt 11
Morocco 6
Kenya 7
Others 52
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions 2017
Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africarsquos mobile broadband market
httpwwwinformatmcomitmgcontenticomsreports3000004726xls
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Africarsquos mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
South
Afr
ica
Nig
eria
Moro
cco
Egypt
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Nam
ibia
Bots
wana
Reacuteunio
n
Su
bscri
pti
on
s (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Top mobile broadband markets 4Q11
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Vodacom South Africa
MTN South Africa
MTN Nigeria
Globacom Nigeria
Wana Morocco
Safaricom Kenya
Etisalat Egypt
Meacutedi Teacuteleacutecom Morocco
Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
Unitel Angola
Subscriptions (thousands)
Top African mobile broadband operators 4Q11
Note Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA EV-DO or EV-DO Rev A covering all device types (data-cards USB modems embedded notebooks and handsets)
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Data market
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues In 4Q11 total data revenues amounted to over US$14 billion representing a 135 increase over 4Q10
South Africa lead the Africarsquos data market in 4Q11 generating a total of US$61246 million However Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products In 2H11 13 operators launched 3G services to their customers
As of 2Q12 Africa has seen three commercial LTE network launches Angolarsquos Movicel became the first operator to launch LTE services in Africa It was followed closely Namibiarsquos MTC and Mauritiusrsquos Emcel
Africa sees 135 y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
VodacomSA
MTN SA Safaricom MTNNigeria
IttissalatAl-Maghrib
UnitelAngola
Libyana OrascomAlgeria
ECMSEgypt
VodafoneEgypt
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
US
$ m
)
Data revenues by operator 3Q11
40
28
22 22 21
14 13 13 13 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Starcomms Safaricom VodacomSA
MTCNamibia
MTN SA AirtelZambia
UnitelAngola
VodacomTZ
VodacomLesotho
Tigo TZ
Da
ta r
eve
nu
es (
)
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator 3Q11
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
619
619
500
500
460
460
430
340
287
200
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
MTN South Africa
Vodacom South Africa
MTN Ghana
MTN Nigeria
Safaricom Kenya
Globacom Nigeria
Airtel Nigeria
MTC Namibia
Airtel Kenya
Airtel Zambia
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as of total data revenues 3Q11
World Cellular Data Metrics
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment In 3Q11 the contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50 as demand for mobile Internet increase
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the continent Informa Telecoms amp Media forecasts a penetration of 11 by 2016
000
250
500
750
1000
-
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
ns
Smartphone connections forecast ndash Africa 2012 - 2016
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Operator performance indicators
000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
AR
PU
(U
S$
)
Average blended ARPU by country 4Q10-4Q11
Angola
South Africa
Cape Verde
Botswana
Mauritius
Tunisia
Morocco
Swaziland
Gabon
EquitorialGuineaCongo
KPIs
Highest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 4000
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 3152
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 2850
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 2800
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 2450
Angola Unitel Angola 2300
Libya Libyana 2300
httpwwwwcispluscomxlsGlobalARPUxls
Country Operator Blended ARPU (US$)
Benin Etisalat Benin 340
Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 331
Madagascar Orange Madagascar 304
Ghana Kasapa 274
Benin Bell Benin Communications 240
Burundi Onatel Burundi 220
Guinea Republic Sotelgul 135
Lowest ARPU by operator 4Q11
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operatorrsquos blended ARPU
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks
Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms amp Media forecast African will have 112 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 6497 million in end-2011 representing a 723 increase
Africarsquos mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels However the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators Nigeria Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks