africa market update - may 2016

2SEPTEMBER 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com


Table of Contents


MAY 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA

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KENYA 4

NIGERIA 5

TANZANIA 6

UGANDA 8

RWANDA 9

ETHIOPIA 7

3MAY 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com


386,790,000

35,900,000

20,000,000

400,960,000

65,000,00025,300,000

5,000,000160,000,000

320,000

Capital Invested by Country (USD)

AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE JANUARY 2016 - APRIL 2016

Capital Invested by Sectors

20,460,0002,160,000

42,830,00042,000,000

4,590,000

Capital Invested by Deal Type

Deals Snapshot• Millicom Interna�onal Cellular (Democra�c Republic of Congo) was acquired by Orange for USD 160.0 Million on April 21st, 2016• Asmara Mining Share (Eritrea) was acquired by Sichuan Road and Bridge Investment Corpora�on for USD 78.3 Million on April

25th, 2016• Sierra Ru�le (Sierra Leone) USD 20.0 Million from Pala Investments on April 14th, 2016

Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa

30.8%

15.9%

12.1%

9.3%

4.9%

3.1%

2.9%

2.7%

2.4%

15.9%

Retail Metals & Mining

Communica�ons & Networking

Commercial Services

Healthcare Pharmaceu�cals

So�wareRestaurants & Hotels

Commercial Banks Others

South Africa

Ethiopia

Egypt

Rwanda

Burkina Faso

Kenya

Madagascar

Tanzania

Morocco

Liberia

Nigeria

37,090,000

Congo

Eritrea

Zambia

Sierra Leone

28.6%

24.5%15.4%

11.9%

3.6%3.6%

2.2%1.5%

1.0%

7.7%

Merger & Acquisi�on ................... Growth & Expansion..

Corporate Dives�ture .................. Buyout/LBO ..............

Asset Acquisi�on ............................ PIPE ..............................

Share Purchase ............................... Asset Dives�ture .........

Angel ............................................... Others ..........................

28.6% 24.5%

15.4% 11.9%

3.6% 3.6%

2.2% 1.5%

1.0% 7.7%



Crumbled ICC Cases Present Fresh Challenges for the Country

The collapse of the cases against the Deputy President, William Ruto, and former radio presenter, Joshua Sang’, at the International Criminal Court elicits two critical dynamics that will shape the political landscape going forward:

• Whereas the cases against all suspects have been dismissed, the fact that the perpetrators of the 2007/08 post-election violence remain at large sticks out as a sore thumb in the country’s political risk outlook. Concern abounds over the country’s ability to set up domestic mechanisms to address the same even as the nation prepares for the 2017 general election. The crumbled ICC cases have engendered a pervasive feeling of abortive justice that has failed to address, arguably, Kenya’s worst political crisis creating baggage that is being carried forward into the next election cycle. The judiciary has, in the recent past, suffered waning confidence, amidst allegations of corruption, from the public, a matter that is bound to have an impact on the perception of efforts aimed at fostering national healing and reconciliation

• The incumbent government is well positioned to draw political capital from the development with the Kenyatta-Ruto re-election ticket likely to gain more traction. The lead opposition, Coalition for Reforms and Democracy, has in the recent past been bedeviled by conflicting statements by party members; a development likely to decelerate the party’s momentum ahead of the polls

POLITICAL OUTLOOK

Diaspora Remittances AccelerateYear-on-year growth in diaspora remittances accelerated to double digits in January 2016, recouping momentum that had been lost for two consecutive years. Growth stood at 19.9% between January 2015 and January 2016

to USD 137.5 Million compared to 7.8% and 3.3% in the periods January 2013 – January 2014 and January 2014 – January 2015, respectively. We note that there has been steady improvement in key source economies such as the USA and parts of Europe that are likely occasioning recovery in growth of remittances.

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

KENYA

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Turbulence in the Banking SectorVolatility in the banking sector following the placement of Chase Bank under receivership on April 07th, 2016 shook confidence in what has been widely deemed as one of Africa’s most robust banking sectors. This came on the back of similar remedial action on Dubai and Imperial Banks in August and October, 2015, respectively, stoking fears of a potential systemic banking crisis in the country. A discernible trend in the last three years has been the decline of the banking sector’s loan loss provision (as a percentage of gross non-performing loans); exposing the sector to weak buffers in the face of adverse conditions. It is little wonder, therefore, that the banks affected in the recent past have been caught in the web of bad loans and fraudulent practices.

Yields Subdued as Inflation Normalizes

If the yield curve is anything to go by, investors seem to be anticipating mitigated inflation risk, notably in the short and medium terms. This is likely to be informed by the regulator’s retention of the Central Bank Rate at 11.5% in the last monetary policy meeting, suggesting the regulator is not relenting on the tightened stance despite declining inflation. We, however, maintain that there is likely to be some ease in monetary policy between Q2 and Q4, 2016, as the Central Bank looks to support the private sector’s access to credit.

DEBT MARKET UPDATE

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Budget 2016 Passage: Boost for Policy Co-ordination between Arms of Government

Parliament passed the record USD 30.0 Billion 2016 budget after protracted delay (three months), dissipating widespread fears that the fractured economy would be subjected to further strain by procedural hiccups between various arms of government. Friction between the executive and the legislature in the budget approval process was eliciting concern over the government’s policy co-ordination at a time when the economy is facing considerable challenge following an adverse external environment.

A Chance to Focus on Development

This creates an opportunity for the government to focus on implementation of the stimulus budget to rev up the lethargic economy. It also marks a major boost for the new administration which has, thus far, made efforts to rally the nation in pursuing fiscal consolidation. The focus, going forward, will be on how austerity measures, notably on recurrent spending, affects the livelihood of citizens.

POLITICAL OUTLOOK

Central Bank Intervenes to Avert Foreign Currency Crunch

The central bank was compelled to avail foreign exchange to a section of manufacturing entities (over two hundred companies) that are reported to have been threatened with closure due to scarcity of foreign currency to import inputs. Whereas this would suggest favourable measures taken by the regulator to protect the industry, it raises grave concern amongst investors over the general trajectory of the business climate given the monetary pressures being experienced.

BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT

NIGERIA

Central Bank on the Spot as Inflation Soars

Continued surge in inflation complicates matters for the Central Bank further as the regulator seeks to temper anti-inflation response with stimulus towards economic growth. The country’s expansionary monetary policy, adopted in October 2015, was short-lived with an apparent u-turn coming in March 2016 as the economy grappled with high inflation. The Central Bank may now be compelled to further its u-turn on monetary policy in the remaining quarters of 2016, at the risk of decelerating already weak growth that stood at a measly 2.8% in 2015.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Inflation Fears Spread amongst Long-term Investors

The rise in short-term yields witnessed between February and March, 2016 spread to the medium and long-term ends of the curve in April 2016. This development suggests inflations fears are mounting and spreading to medium and long-term investors as the monetary environment continues to be rocked by turbulence. Mild humps discernible in the yield curve in April 2016 could be a signal of investor expectation of continued economic slowdown in the quarters ahead in view of the weak figures posted by the bureau of statistics for 2015.

DEBT MARKET UPDATE





Tanzania beats Kenya to Win the Uganda Oil Pipeline deal

Tanzania’s logistics and infrastructure plans received a boost after the country won the 1,400.0 Kilometers pipeline deal as the suitable route to transport Uganda’s oil from Hoima through the Tanga Port. Given Uganda’s vast reserves of commercially viable oil (6.5 Billion barrels), this places Tanzania at a pivotal point in the region’s economy in the years ahead. It could also present an opportunity for Tanzania, which is widely deemed as a largely unwilling member state, to rope further into the regional integration agenda. In the recent past, the East African Community has been bedeviled by perceptions of ‘the coalition of the willing versus that of the unwilling’ which have undermined efforts to fast-track integration.

Mending Strained Ties

President Magufuli has been on a mission to renew old ties and court new allies as he looks to mend strained relations. Tanzania has suffered strained relations with several trading and development partners, particularly, after the 2014 energy scandal. The President is capitalizing on the new administration’s perceived goodwill to convince development partners that the economy is on the road to reform. Tanzania’s minister of foreign affairs met with his United States of America (USA) counterpart to strengthen strained bilateral relations after the USA recently, through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), withheld USD 472.0 Million in development support to the country due to the Zanzibar political impasse. USA has since committed to extend USD 700.0 Million in support to Tanzania, a development that gives a firm indication that bilateral relations between the two are on the mend.

POLITICAL OUTLOOK


TANZANIA

Tanzania Shilling to USD (Year-to-Date)

Shilling Slides to Five Months’ Low on Dollar Demand

The Shilling came under pressure in April 2016 after three months of resilience to breach the 2,200.0 units of exchange to the greenback mark. On April 25th, 2016 the local unit exchanged at 2,203.0 units to the greenback, a low last witnessed in October 2015 at the height of turbulence in the monetary environment. The slide by the shilling came on the back of a surge in demand for the dollar by manufacturers and oil importers.

Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2,140.0

2,150.0

2,160.0

2,170.0

2,180.0

2,190.0

2,200.0

2,210.0

31-D

ec-1

5

14-J

an-1

6

28-J

an-1

6

11-F

eb-1

6

25-F

eb-1

6

10-M

ar-1

6

24-M

ar-1

6

7-Ap

r-16

21-A

pr-1

6

DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Short-term yields declined in April 2016 on the back of relatively high liquidity in the money market and decreasing inflationary pressure ─ inflation has been declining steadily from 6.5% in January, 5.6% in February and 5.4% in March, 2016.





Policy Adjustment Signals Furtherance of Economic LiberalizationThe recent relaxation of foreign exchange controls (please see Economic Outlook) signals furtherance of gradual liberalization of the economy in line with our assessment between 2014 and 2015. We maintain the view that the government will increasingly be compelled to adopt a more liberalized approach as the economy integrates further with the Eastern Africa region and attracts more investor interest. The government has set the ambitious target (under the Grand Transformation Plan II) of attracting in excess of USD 8.0 Billion in foreign investment between 2015 and 2020, necessitating improvement of the business climate through such adjustments in policy.

POLITICAL OUTLOOK

ETHIOPIA

Construction Sector to Reap from State Led GrowthState-led development remains at the center of the business environment with the Grand Transformation Plan (GTP) II keen on advancing the gains made through infrastructure projects between 2010 and 2015. The construction sector is poised to remain at the core of this expansion given the government’s focus on addressing infrastructure gaps that have been an impediment to realization of full potential in the investment climate. Projects such as the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam (now reported to be 47.0% complete) will be the key drivers of the sector’s growth in the next five years.


Source: Business Monitor International, StratLink Africa

Construction as Percentage of GDP

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

2015 2016 2017(f) 2018(f)

Foreign Exchange Risk Elevated as Volatility Rocks Birr

The Birr remains volatile against the greenback in what we assess comes on the back of the relaxation of foreign exchange controls by the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE)3. NBE now faces the challenge of stabilizing the local unit and allaying rising investor concerns over near term prospects for the Birr. For the better part of 2015, a stable currency, in the face of turbulence across sub-Saharan Africa monetary landscape, had been a major prop for investor confidence in the country, the reversal of which poses a key challenge for the economy in 2016.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa

Birr to USD Exchange

20.3

20.5

20.7

20.9

21.1

21.3

21.5

21.7

21.920

-Apr

-15

20-M

ay-1

5

20-J

un-1

5

20-J

ul-1

5

20-A

ug-1

5

20-S

ep-1

5

20-O

ct-1

5

20-N

ov-1

5

20-D

ec-1

5

20-J

an-1

6

20-F

eb-1

6

20-M

ar-1

6

Aug 07th 2015: Na�onal Bank of Ethiopia announces plans to relax foreign exchange controls





Reprieve for Manufacturers on Reduced Electricity Tariffs

Uganda’s manufacturing sector is set to benefit from reduced electricity tariff ─ tariffs for large industrial users, who account for approximately 43.0% of power usage, reduced by 2.2% to USD 0.11 cents/kWh in Q2, 2016 (from the preceding quarter), attributable to appreciation of the shilling and general decline in global oil prices. Uganda trails East Africa Community peers in ease of getting electricity in the 2016 World Bank Doing Business Report, ranking at 167 (out of 189 economies), compared to Kenya’s 127, Tanzania’s 83 and Rwanda’s 118. As such, lowered tariffs are bound to help improve the investment environment in view of the potential reduction in the cost of doing business.

Normalcy Returns to Political Climate

Normalcy is returning to the political climate after months of whipped up rhetoric in the run up to the February 2016 election and uncertainty over the, now annulled, election outcome petition by opposition stalwart, Amama Mbabazi. Additionally, Kizza Besigye has since been released after almost two months of house arrest, further helping defuse political tension. The onus now falls on President Museveni to unite the country amid evidence of a growing disenfranchisement in view of fettered democratic space. The opposition, development partners and an increasingly assertive civil society, are pressing for electoral reforms which may include reintroduction of term limits that were scrapped in 2005. Uganda, also risks losing out on budgetary commitments after one of its key development partners, United States of America, threatened to review ties if the country continued to disregard civil liberties, in view of a crackdown on opposition politicians and their supporters as well as the clampdown on the media.

POLITICAL OUTLOOK


UGANDA

Bank of Uganda Slashes Benchmark Rate by 100.0 bps

Bank of Uganda (BOU) is shifting gears to a more accommodative policy stance in what comes as an indicator of confidence in the stabilization of the monetary environment as well as need to spur growth in 2016. In 2015, BOU was the most aggressive central bank in tightening its monetary policy in East Africa with the benchmark rate having been hiked from 11.0% in January to 17.0% in December 2015. BOU is likely to be loosening policy informed by the fact that the shilling has been stable against major currencies whilst inflation has been relatively subdued over the last quarter ─ inflation stood at 6.2% in March 2016 from 7.0% in February 2016. Additionally, the economy’s growth rate decelerated in Q2, 2015/16 (October – December 2015) to stand at 2.1% compared to 3.4% in the same quarter a year earlier, necessitating adjustment in monetary policy to support the private sector.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Yields Decline on Relative Liquidity

Liquidity seems to be correcting after tightening in Q4, 2015 with the interbank rate trending closer to the 10.0% mark in March 2016. As such, we expect to see gradual decline in short-term yields which have, by and large, been elevated since the start of Q2, 2015.

DEBT MARKET UPDATE





Frosty Relations with Close Neighbors

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has accused Rwanda of sending troops into its territory in pursuit of a militia reported to have staged at least two attacks on its (Rwanda’s) territory in April 2016. Whilst Rwanda has denied the allegations, we note that this adds onto indicators suggesting the country is increasingly finding itself in frosty relations with close neighbors ─ reports abound alleging Rwanda has been involved in training rebels from Burundi with the aim of ousting President Pierre Nkurunziza. Such accusations are likely to undermine the political risk profile of not only Rwanda but also the wider Great Lakes region (Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania).

POLITICAL OUTLOOK

Construction Boom on the back of Urbanization

We maintain our radar on the construction sector which, recently available data indicates, has been a key driver of the growth in private sector credit. Construction was one of the key sub-sectors that drove growth of industry in 2015, driven, to a large extent, by rising urbanization and infrastructure upgrade. One of the areas receiving the largest share of credit financing has been mortgages and this reflects rapid growth in demand for housing in key urban areas.


Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, StratLink Africa

Share of Private Sector Credit

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

100.0%

2013 2014 2015OthersAgricultureWater& EnergyTransport & Warehousing

Mortgage IndustriesManufacturingTrade and Hotels

RWANDA

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Franc Cedes Ground as Trade Deficit Widens

While most regional currencies have held firm against the greenback, the Franc has been ceding ground on the back of a widening trade deficit. The country’s trade deficit widened by 12.7% in the first two months of 2016 to USD 297.0 Million owing to high import demand. We further note that the local unit slid upon Standard & Poor’s revision of the country’s long-term credit rating to negative from stable to negative, with depressed commodity prices being identified as a major risk. This is likely to have stirred investor concern with the reaction manifesting in the Franc. In March 2016, Bank of Rwanda retained the benchmark rate at 6.5% maintaining an accommodative stance. In view of the Franc’s weakness, however, the rate could be hiked in the coming quarters with a view to arresting volatility.

DEBT MARKET UPDATE

Marginal Decline in Yields as Inflation Abates

The T-Bill market experienced marginal, decline in yields in the period under review. With inflation having risen by 20.0 bps, between February 2016 and March 2016, to 4.8% and liquidity tightening, yields could rise in the near term. Retention of the benchmark rate at 6.5% is also likely to come across as a reassuring signal that the monetary environment was under control, hence marginal movement in the yields.





StratLink in the News

StratLink Africa continues to make commentary on thematic issues in frontier and emerging markets. Below please find links to the latest pieces.

Please click the buttons to view the full articles

Entrepreneur - Want a Great Way to Win Over Millennials in Africa’s Emerging Markets?: In this piece, Konstantin Makarov horizontal organizational structures and how they can be used in harnessing the potential of millennials.

Ventureburn - Three key trends that will sustain long-term growth in Africa: In this piece, Konstantin Makarov looks into growth engines likely to buoy Africa’s long-term prospects.

Business Daily - Central Bank of Kenya seen lowering lending rate to cut cost of bank loans: In this article, StratLink Africa Ltd’s view on the evolution of monetary policy in Kenya is cited.

London School of Economics Business Review - Domestic savings may be the answer to Africa’s fiscal woes: In this interview, Julians Amboko analyses key developments in global monetary policy and how Africa can leverage domestic savings to mitigate fiscal pressures.

http://ventureburn.com/2016/04/3-key-trends-will-sustain-long-term-growth-africa/

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/CBK-seen-lowering-lending-rate-to-cut-cost-of-bank-loans-/-/539552/3145772/-/12lt6v2/-/index.html

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2016/04/21/domestic-savings-may-be-the-answer-to-africas-fiscal-woes/

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/273128



STRATLINK AFRICA LTD - WHO WE ARE

StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company with Capital Raising Advisory, Corporate Advisory and Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in the growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and partner with our clients to execute their vision by providing quality services and access to capital. We recognize opportunities in the region and connect the fastest growing middle market companies with leading global investment banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the importance of making informed decisions and leverage our regional knowledge to the advantage of our clients.

Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic research

Within our purview of coverage are nine economies – Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana, Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and analysis of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic environment, debt and equity markets. We also conduct sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on market landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well as potential challenges.

Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data

Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile team traversing the fields of economics and finance with qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The team is backed by subscription to reliable databases such as Business Monitor International, Bloomberg, Thomson One Research, World Economics and The World Today. As such, our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in an increasingly dynamic region. Further, we reach out to relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central Banks, ministries and state departments.

Authoritative voice on regional economics

StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary and opinion on issues pertaining Sub-Saharan African economies and investment. Reputable media including CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg have reached out to the company for opinion and analysis.

Where we are based

Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in New York, Kampala and Kuala Lumpur.

STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM

Konstantin Makarov – Managing [email protected]

Dina Farfel – Partner [email protected]

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Samuel Odero - Analyst [email protected]

Lewis Muguro - Analyst [email protected]

Benson Njeri – Analyst [email protected]

Julians Amboko – Research Analyst [email protected]

Sophia Sifuma – Research [email protected]

Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic [email protected]



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