Bienvenido ldquoNonoyrdquo Oplas Jr

Minimal Government Thinkers

Affordable electricity via less government

commentary to Dr M Ravagorsquos presentation

Stratbase-ADRi Forum on

ldquoAffordable Electricity a Requisite for Competitivenessrdquo

Oakwood Joy-Nostalg Center Ortigas Mandaluyong City

October 26 2016

Comment does not look realistic because the new renewables can hardly

be cheap

Germany case Cost of electricity keeps rising due to FIT subsidies national

grid becomes unstable

South Australia case

Statewide blackout for many

hours last September 28 due to

deliberate outage of wind power

during the storm

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

El Nino ndash La Nina cycle Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(PDO) cycle

Climate change Warming-cooling

natural cycle in the past global warming

has precedents it is not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo

Comment does not look realistic because the new renewables can hardly

be cheap

Germany case Cost of electricity keeps rising due to FIT subsidies national

grid becomes unstable

South Australia case

Statewide blackout for many

hours last September 28 due to

deliberate outage of wind power

during the storm

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

El Nino ndash La Nina cycle Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(PDO) cycle

Climate change Warming-cooling

natural cycle in the past global warming

has precedents it is not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo

Germany case Cost of electricity keeps rising due to FIT subsidies national

grid becomes unstable

South Australia case

Statewide blackout for many

hours last September 28 due to

deliberate outage of wind power

during the storm

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

El Nino ndash La Nina cycle Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(PDO) cycle

Climate change Warming-cooling

natural cycle in the past global warming

has precedents it is not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo

South Australia case

Statewide blackout for many

hours last September 28 due to

deliberate outage of wind power

during the storm

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

El Nino ndash La Nina cycle Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(PDO) cycle

Climate change Warming-cooling

natural cycle in the past global warming

has precedents it is not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

El Nino ndash La Nina cycle Pacific Decadal Oscillation

(PDO) cycle

Climate change Warming-cooling

natural cycle in the past global warming

has precedents it is not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo

Climate cycle

30 Nov 1912 ndash DEADLY TYPHOON

HOLOCAUST IN PHILIPPINES

WASHINGhellip

httptroven

lagovau

30 Nov 1912 ndash DEADLY TYPHOON

HOLOCAUST IN PHILIPPINES

WASHINGhellip

httptroven

lagovau

BusinessWorld Feed-in tariff means more expensive electricity 13 Nov 2015

Problem with Feed in

tariff (FIT) keeps

ising as more wind

and solar were added

yearly to the energy

mix and electricity

distributors are forced

to buy them even

when cheaper

electricity from coal

natural gas nuclear

and hydro are

available

httpwwwagora-energiewendededethemen-agothem-Produktprodukt76Agorameter

Dark blue - konv Kraftwerke or conventional power plants (coal gas nuke)

Light blue - laufwasser or hydro power yellow ndash solar green - wind

Red - Stromverbrauch or electricity consumption Data as of Oct 25 2016

Winter demand for heating is high

solar output is close to zero

Power Plants Fuel

type

Dec 2015 Aug 2016 Sept 2016

share

GC sh GC sh GC

A Power Supply Agreements (PSAs)

1 South Premiere Power Corp (SPPC)

- Ilijan

ngas 212 3851 143 3626 181 3807

2 San Miguel Energy Corp (SMEC)

Sual-coal Limay-diesel San R-hydrohellip

mixed 92 1985 84 3810 84 4094

3 Therma Luzon Inc (TLI) Coal 69 2803 64 3611 64 3897

4 Masinloc Power Partners Corp

(MPPC)

Coal 65 3432 66 34887 66 3829

5 SEM Calaca Power Corp (SCPC) Coal 24 3990 58 2517 70 3562

6 Therma Mobile Inc (TMO) diesel 06 12533 17 6340 09 8138

Sub-Total 467 3386 432 3594 474 3920

B Power Purchase Agreements (PPAsIPPs)

7 First Gas Power Corp ndash Sta Rita ngas 251 4045 159 3951 150 4266

8 FGP Corp ndash San Lorenzo ngas 128 4027 113 3448 109 3631

9 Quezon Power Phils Ltd Co (QPPLC) Coal 107 4370 85 4263 104 4119

C Wholesale Electricity Spot Market

(WESM)

mixed 46 6282 206 4664 161 3189

D RenewablesOthers 00 4882 06 8111 02 15146

Total generation cost for captive market 100 3872 100 3938 100 3865

httpwwwmeralcocomphconsumer-informationrates-archive

Generation charge (GC) passed on by Meralco PkWh

The Times (UK) 2500 new coal plants will thwart any Paris pledges 02 Dec 2015

Good news 1 More coal power plants are constructed worldwide

including ldquogreenrdquo EU

Good news 2 PH global rank in ldquoGetting electricityrdquo

WBrsquos ldquoDoing Businessrdquo annual report remains high

bull DB 2017 Report released yesterday October 25 190 countries

covered PH ranked 99th overall but 22nd in ldquoGetting electricityrdquo

bull DB 2016 Report 189 countries covered PH

ranked 103rd overall 19 in ldquoGetting

electricityrdquo

bull DB 2015 Report 189 countries PH ranked

95th overall 16 in ldquoGetting electricityrdquo