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AE ANNUAL FORECAST |1 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |1


• 2013 – A Year in Review

• United States, Texas, and Austin

• Austin Economic Drivers

• Forecast: 2014-2015 Austin MSA

• Closing Remarks


2013 % Change (YTD)

2.3 million 0.7%

$3.8 trillion 3.8%

2.2 million 1.6%

7.0% -13.6%

$1.2 trillion 5.2%

$20.7 billion 2.1%

187,500 2.1%

891,000 19.0%

1.3 million -28.0%

YTD New Population

YTD Retail Sales

Avg. New Jobs

Unemployment Rate

YTD Exports

Venture Capital Investment

New Business Formation1

YTD Housing Starts

YTD Foreclosures

1 As of first quarter 2012 (March) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board, PriceWaterhouseCoopers,

Texas Comptroller, U.S. Census

YEAR IN REVIEW

United States


YEAR IN REVIEW

•Consumer Sentiment is slowly improving

•Sluggish improvement follows slow U.S. recovery

Source: St. Louis Fed


YEAR IN REVIEW

U.S. Federal Deficit & Debt-to-GDP

$0.46

$1.40 $1.30 $1.30

$1.10

$0.68 67.4%

81.3% 89.5%

94.3% 98.4% 100.3%

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Federal Deficit ($ Billions)

Federal Debt as % of GDP

Sources: St. Louis Fed

•Debt to GDP to reach 100%

•Deficit to drop below $1 billion

•Fiscal cliff & government shutdown


YEAR IN REVIEW

•Declining median household incomes

•Majority of new jobs are part time

Source: St. Louis Fed


Source: Time Magazine

YEAR IN REVIEW


Texas 2013 % Change (YTD)

530,000 2.0%

$198 billion 7.4%

301,000 2.8%

6.2% -8.7%

$162 billion 3.6%

$986 million 27.3%

8,800 1.5%

58,900 18.0%

40,000 -46.0%

YTD New Population1

YTD Retail Sales2

Avg. New Jobs

Unemployment Rate

YTD Exports

YTD Venture Capital Investment

YTD New Business Formation3

YTD Housing Starts

YTD Foreclosures

1 Based on the Department of State Health Services 2 As of second quarter 2012 (June) 3 As of first quarter 2012 (March) Sources: St. Louis Fed, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Texas

Comptroller, U.S. Census

YEAR IN REVIEW


*Note: YTD Nonfarm employment through September. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Education & Health

Leisure & Hospitality

Retail Trade

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Wholesale Trade

Professional Services

Transportation

Construction

Information

Government

United States Texas

YEAR IN REVIEW

0.7%

1.8%

5.4%

0.3%

4.4%

3.3%

1.9%

0.6%

2.5%

3.5%

4.9%

2.7%

-0.3%

0.4%

2.9%

1.5%

3.4%

1.6%

1.4%

0.5%

0.9%

2.0%

2.9%

1.8%

Total Jobs 2.2M

(1.6%)

Total Jobs 301,000 (2.8%)


Austin MSA

New Population

Retail Sales

Avg. New Jobs

Unemployment Rate

Non Ag. Employment

YTD New Business Formation

2013 % Change (YTD)

54,700 3.0%

$27.2 billion 7.2%

27,200 3.3%

5.0% -11.9%

850,000 3.3%

1,000 2.2%

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Texas Comptroller, Census

YEAR IN REVIEW


Austin MSA


Government

Educ. & Health Services



Transportation

Wholesale Trade

Information

Manufacturing

Retail Trade

Construction

Growth Rate Industry New Jobs

Total Jobs 27,200 (3.3%)

Source: AngelouEconomics, Texas Workforce Commission

YEAR IN REVIEW

3,100

3,300

300

600

1,400

300

-500

8,400

4,000

1,200

4,800 5.2%

0.7%

4.0%

6.8%

-1.1%

2.2%

3.3%

2.9%

0.6%

3.8%

7.5%


Austin vs. Benchmarks

New Jobs Location Avg. % Change

Austin

Houston

Dallas/Ft. Worth

San Antonio

U.S.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

YEAR IN REVIEW

1.6%

1.5%

3.2%

3.4%

3.3% 27,200

88,800

94,600

13,000

2,195,000


• Austinpreneurship

• Tech Sector

• Real Estate

• The Festival/Entertainment Economy


$229

$389

$660$626

$518

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Venture Capital Investment ($ millions)

Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers

Initial Public Offerings

Company $ Raised

LDR Holding Corp

$92M

RetailMeNot, Inc

$230M

Jones Energy, Inc

$306M

AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS

$307.5

Q4: $210.5


Number of Austin Jobs by Sector (in thousands)

Total Tech Sector: 120,000 2013 New Jobs: 5,000

Job Growth: 4.3%

29.5

22.1

13.1

50.4

29.2

22.0 14.4

54.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Manufacturing High Tech Supply Chain

Information/IT Professional Services

2012

2013

Source: Texas Workforce Commission



Success of Austin Companies

Company Revenue

(previous 12 months)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

(year over year)

Dell* $44.6B* -24.0%

Whole Foods Market $12.9B 15.8%

National Instruments $1.2B 32.5%

Cirrus Logic $862.8M 64.1%

American Campus $647.7M 45.9%

Silicon Laboratories $586.3M 9.1%

HomeAway $327.8M 22.7%

SolarWinds $282.2M 12.4%

BazaarVoice $169.2M 26.9%


Source: Yahoo Finance, Engadget and Forbes *Estimated


OM

MU

TE S

HED


• Dell goes private and restructures

• Silicon laboratories $94M expansion

• British airways to offer London/Austin non-stop

• LDR Holding Co., RetailMeNot and Jones Energy go public- raising $630 million

• The Dell Medical School - under construction late in 2014

Sources: Austin American Statesman, Austin Business Journal


Source: CoStar


(100)

200

500

800

1,100

1,400

1,700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average Net Absorption (in thousands of sq. ft.)

Retail

Industrial

Office


Source: CoStar

Rental & Occupancy rates

$7.5 $7.0 $6.6 $6.6 $6.6 $7.1

$25.8 $25.3 $24.7 $24.6 $25.1 $27.1

$19.5 $19.0 $18.2 $17.8 $17.9 $17.6

$0$5

$10$15$20$25$30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD)

Industrial Office Retail


80%85%90%95%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD)

Office

Retail

Industrial


Source: U.S. Census, Texas A&M Real Estate Market Report, Metrostudy

Residential Market

Months of Inventory 2.6

MLS Sales 31,000

Avg. Home Price $285,300

Housing Starts 8,500

New Multi-Family Units 13,900

Multi-Family Occupancy Rate 95.2%

Multi-Family Rental Rate/SF $1.10



OM

MU

TE S

HED


• Austin City Limits • Estimated 2013 economic impact of over $105M

• South by Southwest • Brought $218M in economic impacts in 2013

• Circuit of the Americas • Moto GP • F1

- $400 - $500 million annual economic impact - 300,000 fans attend each Grand Prix Weekend

• Austin to host 2014 summer X-Games



Government

Education & Health Services

Other Services



Information

Manufacturing

Trade, Transport, Utilities

Construction 5,200

10,600

1,300

1,700

1,900

16,800

2,700

7,200

2,500

9,400

Industry New Jobs Growth Rate

Total Jobs 59,300 (7.0%)

Source: AngelouEconomics

AUSTIN’S 2014-2015 FORECAST

9.7%

1.5%

7.1%

7.5%

12.7%

4.2%

7.6%

2.5%

7.0%

11.6%


FORECAST

1,6801,716

1,7841,819

1,873

1,930

1,987

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Population (in millions)



Market Expected Absorption

Office 2,500,000 sq. ft.

Industrial 2,100,000 sq. ft.

Retail 1,600,000 sq. ft.

Single Family 18,500 units

Multi-Family 16,500 units




20.6 23.7

25.327.2

29.231.3

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Retail Sales Growth Rate

FORECAST % Growth


Retail Sales (in billions)



YEAR IN REVIEW

Rebates by City and County, 2013 (through Nov.)

Payments % Change

Bastrop County $6.2 M 4.4%

Bastrop $4.6 M 3.0%

Caldwell County $3.3 M 2.4%

Lockhart $1.8 M 0.4%

Hays County $30.1 M 10.1%

San Marcos $21.4 M 8.9%

Travis County $180.3 M 6.8%

Austin $154.1 M 6.2%

Pflugerville $6.7 M 7.8%

Williamson County $104.7 M 8.9%

Georgetown $16.5 M 12.8%

Round Rock $61.9 M 6.6%

Source: Texas Comptroller


FORECAST


New Jobs (in thousands)


18.4

-17.7

11.3

21.825.7

27.2

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Employment Growth Rate

28.9 30.4


Thank you to our Sponsors


Please submit your

questions via twitter @

#ae2014


2014 – 2015 Expert Panelists

Mark Strama – Head of Google Fiber Austin

Hugh Forrest – Director of SXSW Interactive

Catherine Morse – General Counsel of Samsung Austin

Greg Hartman – President of External Affairs of Seton

Jason Dorsey – Gen Y Guy


Catherine Q. Morse General Counsel and Director of Public Affairs

Samsung Austin Semiconductor

Catherine Morse is General Counsel and Director of Public

Affairs for Samsung Austin Semiconductor. She serves as the

primary liaison between Samsung and the local community.

After spending several years is the Austin office of Fulbright &

Jaworski, Catherine began her in-house counsel career with

Applied Materials. She subsequently worked at Freescale

Semiconductor as Director of Labor & Employment law before

joining Samsung.


Hugh Forrest

Director of SXSW Interactive

Hugh Forrest serves as the Director of the annual South by

Southwest Interactive Festival. Hugh has been called a force

of nature, and he is credited with being one of the main

reasons SXSW is so phenomenally successful.

Scheduled March 7-11, 2014 in Austin, SXSW Interactive

brings together more than 30,000 digital creatives from across

the US and around the world. Before joining the SXSW team,

Forrest founded a small alternative publication called The

Austin Challenger and wrote for several other publications.


Greg Hartman President, Academic Medicine, Research & External Affairs

Seton Family of Hospitals Greg Hartman is the President of External Affairs for the

Seton Healthcare Family. He has responsibility for

communications, marketing, and government affairs for the

Seton network, as well as Seton’s growing enterprise in

academic medicine and research.

Prior to his current role at Seton, Greg was the President and

CEO for Seton’s Central Group, which included Seton

Medical Center Austin, the University Medical Center

Brackenridge and the Clinical Education Center @

Brackenridge


A former University of Texas student, at 29 Jason is the country’s leading

generational speaker. He became a best-selling author at the age of 18.

He is also an acclaimed speaker, award-winning entrepreneur, and expert

in Millennials strategy, he focuses on teaching business executives how to

attract, retain, and develop Gen Y employees.

Jason has been featured on 60 Minutes, 20/20, The Today Show, The

View and many more. His latest books are My Reality Check Bounced!

and Y-Size Your Business. He won the “Austin Under 40 Entrepreneur of

the Year Award” at age 25—one of the youngest winners ever.

An Austin resident, Jason is Chief Strategy Officer at The Center for

Generational Kinetics. He has received over 1,000 standing ovations from

audiences as large as 16,000.

Jason Dorsey

Gen Y Guy


Mark was recently named head of Google Fiber in Austin. Previously,

he represented the north Austin area in the Texas House of

Representatives. Mark received Honorable Mentions on Texas

Monthly's Ten Best Legislators list in three of his five sessions in the

House. Texas Monthly said "Strama cares as much about others'

success as his own."

Prior to running for public office, Mark founded the first company to

enable Americans to fill out a voter registration form on the Internet -

700,000 people used this technology to register to vote in the 2000

election cycle. He previously worked for former Texas Governor Ann

Richards and Texas State Senator Rodney Ellis. Mark graduated from

Brown University with degrees in philosophy and political science.

Mark Strama

Head of Google Fiber Austin


Hugh Forrest

Director of SXSW Interactive


Greg Hartman President, Academic Medicine, Research & External Affairs

Seton Family of Hospitals

AE ANNUAL FORECAST |42

AE ANNUAL FORECAST |43 Google confidential

and proprietary


and proprietary

World Average Speeds


and proprietary

Cost Per Megabit is High


and proprietary

Growth in Technology Innovation

AE ANNUAL FORECAST |47

times faster Internet

100


and proprietary

History of Internet Speeds

Dial Up Broadband


Thank you for another great year and

Thanks again to

Pflugerville Community

Development Corporation

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