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1 ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter MARCH 2013

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Page 1: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

1

ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter – MARCH 2013

Page 2: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 12

Forex 14

Commodities 15

Index Page No.

Contents

Real Estate 16

2

Page 3: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

From the Desk of the CIO…

“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”

Dear Investors,

The Union Budget 2014 presented in the Parliament on 28th

February provoked different reactions from investors, common

man and industry. While it disappointed investors – who were

hoping for a path-breaking slew of reforms – it remained

prudent in its outlays and fiscal deficit targets. Debt and equity

markets alike reacted with negative movement on the day of the

budget. Part of the reaction was driven by confusion in the fine

print related to the tax treaties. As the air cleared over that,

equity markets recovered to pre-budget levels. On the balance

though, the effect of budget is unlikely to last beyond few days.

Participants in both debt and equity markets are now starting to

speculate about RBI’s move in the monetary policy

announcement due this month. There are those that believe the

fiscal prudence that marked the budget is likely to give RBI

enough comfort to embark on aggressive monetary policy

easing. Others maintain that the fiscal deficit numbers for FY14

are hard to achieve and RBI knows it just as well, thus keeping

the earlier trade off of growth and inflation almost unchanged,

and monetary policy easing slow. We belong to the former camp

and believe that RBI will cut rates quickly if not very aggressively,

in the next few months.

Equities markets saw renewed turbulence in the run up to and

after the budget. While broad markets experienced some

amount of volatility, mid-caps faired much worse. Several good

quality mid-cap stocks saw a major correction. Some of these

have become very attractively priced as a result. We believe the

upside to risk ratio of these stocks at the prevailing prices is

highly attractive.

Global risk appetite saw some caution creep in through

February. The Italian election results made investors revisit their

scenarios of fresh trouble in Eurozone. The hung parliament and

the possibility of anti-austerity parties having a significant say in

the ruling coalition has investors starting to worry about the

future of Euro again. The final word of Italian government is yet

to come. However, macroeconomic data from US has cheered

investors back into a sense of business as usual. The pending

negotiations in US over the sequestration may bring jitters back.

However, most investors have grown habituated to the political

brinkmanship in US and Eurozone alike and have increasingly

started to express an almost dangerous faith in things finally

working themselves out.

On the equities front, the tail (improbable but highly damaging)

event risks remain quite real at current valuations. Either a

suitably structured exposure to equities with downside

protection or the ability to ignore the short term noise because

of the turbulence is a good defense against these risks. Taking

exposure to USD through currency futures, investing in dollar-

denominated assets or taking explicit put option cover are some

of the specific guards against the improbable event risks.

3

Page 4: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

As on 28th Feb 2013

Change over last month

Change over last year

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 18862 (5.2%) 6.2%

S&P Nifty 5693 (5.7%) 5.7%

S&P 500 1515 1.1% 10.9%

Nikkei 225 11559 3.8% 18.9%

Debt Markets

10-yr G-Sec Yield 7.87% 1 Bps (34 bps)

Call Markets 7.89% (15 bps) (109 bps)

Fixed Deposit* 8.75% 25 Bps (50 bps)

Commodity Markets

RICI Index 3692 (4.0%) (5.7%)

Gold (`/10gm) 29517 (2.2%) 3.2%%

Crude Oil ($/bbl) As on 25th Feb 2013

114.5 (0.9%) (6.3%)

Forex

Markets

Rupee/Dollar 53.8 (0.9%) (9.0%)

Yen/Dollar 91.8 (0.9%) (12.4%)

Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets

10 yr Gsec

Gold

• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)

4

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

59 `/$

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

7.20

7.70

8.20

8.70

9.20

Page 5: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Economy Update - Global

US

Europe

Japan

Emerging economies

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in January, rebounded in

February. The Index now stands at 69.6 (1985=100), up from 58.4 in January

• Gross Domestic Product was revised at an annual rate of 0.1%in the Q4 CY 12 as compared to the 0.1%

drop that was originally reported. However, the growth is much lower than last quarter’s annual rate of

3.1%.

• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remain unchanged in February 2013 at

47.9. The PMI held steady in February, but some consolation can be gained from the fact that January’s

reading was the highest for 11 months, suggesting that the manufacturing downturn has eased so far this

year compared to the pace of decline seen throughout much of last year.

• Euro-zone unemployment rate rose to a record to 11.9% in January 2013 from an upwardly revised 11.8%

in December 2012.

• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 48.5 in February 2013, up from 47.7 in January 2013.

However, by remaining below the 50.0 mark for an ninth successive month, the PMI again pointed to a

deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions.

• The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came at 4.2% in January 2013, down from upwardly revised

4.3% in December 2012.

• China’s HSBC PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in February 2013 down from 52.3 in January 2013, signalling a

marginal strengthening of operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector.

• India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) posted 54.2 in February 2013, up from the reading of 53.2

in January 2013 signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector.

• India’s GDP growth for the quarter ending December 2012, slipped to 4.5%. The Indian economy had

grown by 5.5% and 5.3% in first and second quarter of FY 12 respectively. 5

Page 6: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Economy Outlook - Domestic

• The country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-year

low of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financial

year, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining and

manufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate down

further. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6%

in the same period of last fiscal.

• The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal

(April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grew

an annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just

1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%.

• The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during the

quarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in the

corresponding quarter of the previous year. India’s GDP growth

pegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. India's

key eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following

2.5% growth in December.

GDP growth

• India's industrial production unexpectedly shrank for a second

straight month in December, weighed down by weak investment

and consumer demand. The index of industrial production (IIP) fell

0.6% annually in December 2012. IIP for November has also been

revised downwards to negative 0.8% from 0.1% .

• Cumulative growth in FY13 in Apr- Dec 2012 stands at 0.7% as

against a growth of 3.7% in corresponding period of the previous

year. Mining registered -1.9% growth in April Dec 2012, as against -

2.6% during the same period last year. Manufacturing registered

near zero growth of 0.7% in April - Dec 2012, when compared with

4.0% in April - Dec 2011.

• The IIP number for December is at variance with the Purchasing

Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which had risen to a five-

month high in December 2012. Perhaps this divergence can be

explained by the fact that while PMI survey data is from large

companies, the IIP numbers include smaller firms.

IIP

6

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.3 5.5

5.3

4.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3)

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Dec 11

Jan 12

Feb 12

Mar 12

Apr 12

May 12

Jun 12

Jul 12 Aug 12

Sep 12

Oct 12

Nov 12

Dec 12

Page 7: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Economic Outlook - Domestic

As on Jan 2013 Bank credits grew by 16.1% on a Y-o-Y basis

which is about 0.9% higher than the growth witnessed in

December 2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at

13.2%, viz-a viz a growth of 11.1% in December 2012.

On 29th January 2013, Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate-

the key policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% in its 3rd Quarter

review. Cash reserve ratio (CRR) was also reduced by 25 basis

points to 4%.

If correcting macroeconomic imbalances is good for growth, then

fiscal discipline has at last begun to move in that direction. The

estimated fiscal deficit for 2012-13 was a tad lower than

targeted at 5.2% of GDP, and is forecast to shrink to 4.8% of GDP

in 2013-14. Meaningful fiscal influence upon the economy will

come from abating the threat of a ratings downgrade, lesser

demand boost and, hence, more room for monetary policy, all of

which should support growth.

India’s headline inflation declined sharply to 6.62% in January

from 7.18% in December, its slowest pace in three years. It is

the fourth consecutive monthly decline. WPI declined as the

prices of fuel and manufactured items cooled moderately in

December, compared to those in the previous month.

Manufacturing goods inflation declined to 4.81% from 5.04%

while fuel prices rose 7.06% in January from those a year

earlier, compared with an annual rise of 9.38% in December.

Food inflation, as a category, rose to 8.5% during the month,

from 8.32% a year ago. Food articles have 14.3% share in the

WPI basket. For the fuel and power category, inflation

moderated to 10.02% during the month from 15.48% in

November 2011. However, diesel inflation increased by 14.60%

last month.

Consumer price inflation climbed to 10.79% in January, while

factory output for December shrank 0.6%, all indicating that the

ongoing slowdown could get worse.

Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs

* End of period figures 7

6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 8.0% Wholesale Price Index

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits

Page 8: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Equity Outlook

Union Budget for FY14 turned out to be on expected lines with focus on fiscal consolidation. Finance Minister met his promise of

keeping fiscal deficit at 5.2% for FY13. The provisions for fuel and fertilizer subsidies look adequate this year and the fiscal deficit

number would be closer to 5% for FY14 if price hikes continue for auto fuels. The allowances for various entitlement programmes have

not been increased very meaningfully. Current account seems to be a bigger concern for the economy. We expect several measures to

boost export in the new Exim policy expected by month end. Direct Taxes Code (DTC) bill and Insurance bill are going to be introduced in

current Parliament session which will take the reform process forward. We expect RBI to take cognizance of these fiscal consolidation

measures and continue with monetary easing in its next review on 19th March. The correction in the markets in last three weeks has

opened up an attractive entry opportunity and we recommend investors to increase their exposure to equity.

Key Highlights of Budget

The fiscal deficit number has been penciled at 4.8% for FY14. The provisions for fuel and fertilizer subsidies look much better this year

and the fiscal deficit number would be closer to 5% if price hikes continue for auto fuels.

Direct Taxes Code (DTC) bill to be introduced in current Parliament session. No timelines have been given for implementation Goods and

services tax (GST).

On Revenue side, no change has been made in slabs and rate for personal income tax. Surcharge for domestic companies whose taxable

income exceeds Rs 10 crore per year is increased from 5% to 10%. In the case of foreign companies, the surcharge will increase from 2%

to 5%.The additional surcharges will be in force for only one year, that is for Financial Year 2013-14. One time voluntary compliance

scheme for service tax defaulters to be introduced. And interest and penalties will be waived

8

Budget for FY14 came in on expected lines

Page 9: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Key Highlights

• On the expenditure side, government has provided for Food subsidy of Rs.90,000 crs and is looking to implement Food

security bill. The allowances for various other entitlement programmes have not been increased very meaningfully.

• There was a lot of talk on boosting infrastructure & investment activity but no concrete provisions have come in. Marginal

changes on investment allowance are unlikely to spur SME’s to start investing

• Subsidies related to administering the Food Security Act have not been separately mentioned. An additional 10,000 crores

has been earmarked in addition to the regular food subsidies of 80,000 crores.

• GDP growth for FY14 is estimated at 6.1-6.7%. All tax estimates have been made keeping the mid point of this range as

benchmark

• In FY13, as against a target of Rs. 30,000 crs, the Government will raise about Rs25,000 crs from disinvestment. For FY14,

Rs. 40,000 crs is to be raised through disinvestment.

• Tax credit of Rs 2000 to be provided to every person having income of up to Rs 5 lakh; this will benefit 1.8 crore people. A

person taking a loan for his first home from a bank or a HFC upto Rs 25,00,000 during 1.4.2013 to 31.3.2014 will be entitled

to an additional deduction of interest of upto Rs 100,000.

9

Equity Outlook

Page 10: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Sector Stance Remarks

BFSI Overweight

The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to

increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to

better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline

FMCG Overweight

We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such

as Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be

disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.

Automobiles Overweight

Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also

getting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUV’s and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser

competition and higher pricing power.

Healthcare Neutral

We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in

generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the

developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian

pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price

control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices.

E&C Neutral

The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the

sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive

on this space.

Sector View

10

Page 11: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Sector Stance Remarks

Telecom Neutral The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started

to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.

IT/ITES Neutral Demand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient. With

pricing already bottomed out, we have turned positive on the space selectively.

Energy Neutral

With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSU’s

will come down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space

now.

Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in

earnings and decent return on capital.

Metals Underweight Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about

growth in China and developed parts of the world.

Cement Underweight Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a

strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.

Sector View

11

Page 12: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Debt Outlook

• The 10 year benchmark G-Sec ended the month at 7.91% yield with a fall of 14 Bps during the month.

• The G-Sec market started the last week of Feb on a positive note of OMO announcement, but lower GDP growth estimates. However, yields harden on high gross borrowing numbers.

• Indian Government has provided Rs 2000 cr as premium towards interest payments for bond buybacks in FY14 and the buyback will be cash and fiscal deficit neutral.

• On 29th January 2013, RBI cut the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by25bpsfrom 8% to 7.75% with immediate effect. RBI also cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 bps to 4% of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning February 9, 2013; as a result of this reduction, around Rs.18000 cr of primary liquidity will be injected into the banking system.

• The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond increased to 104 Bps on 28TH February 2013 from 88 Bps(as on 31st January 2013). The 28th February 2013 AAA Rated bond yields rose by 12 bps to 8.91% as compared to the yields a month earlier at 8.79%.

10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve

(%)

(%)

12

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

4.0

4.7

5.5

6.3

7.1

7.9

8.7

9.5

10

.2

11

.0

11

.8

12

.6

13

.4

14

.2

15

.0

15

.7

16

.5

17

.3

18

.1

18

.9

19

.7 7.20

7.40

7.60

7.80

8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

Page 13: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Debt Strategy

Outlook Category Details

Long Tenure Debt

Indian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expected monetary easing. With the second policy rate cut happening in Jan2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo and CRR along with signals of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertainty in the market and hence would recommend to hold on to the current investments in the Longer term papers. These papers are suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.

Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.

With the second policy rate cut that happened in Jan2013, with a 25 Bps cut in Repo rate and CRR along with signals of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors in the market, a lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we would recommend to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term debt Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.

Short Tenure Debt

Credit

13

Page 14: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Forex

• INR has appreciated against three major currencies other than USD. INR depreciated by 0.9% against the US Dollar. Rupee has appreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 1.87%

• Recovery in US economy increased risk appetite among global investors, sending funds flowing into riskier assets, including those in emerging markets. One more Factor for INR to strengthen is that it did not react adversely to fiscal deficit for April-December 2012 being reported at Rs 407,000 crore, or 78.8% of the budgeted fiscal deficit of Rs 991,000 crore for fiscal 2010-13.

• Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee would track cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores.

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data

• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.

• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.

-10000

40000

90000

140000

FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)

Capital Account Balance

Exports during Jan, 2013 were valued at US $ 25.58 bn which was 0.82% higher than the level of US $ 25.38 bn during Jan, 2012. Imports during Jan, 2013 were valued at US $ 45.58 Bn representing a negative growth of 6.12% over the level of imports valued at US $ 42.95 Bn in Jan 2012 translating into a trade deficit of $19.96 Bn.

14

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

-20

-10

0

10

20

30 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)

-0.9%

3.3%

2.2%

0.7%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

USD GBP EURO YEN

Page 15: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Commodities

Precious

Metals

Oil & Gas

The expectation of steadier global growth is a good news for the oil counter given the excess liquidity available. There is no evidence of oil shortage and given the ample supply coupled with the decent growth prospects, we expect oil to remain firmer. While China is expected to stage a good performance this year is positive for the oil market, the signal coming from the Fed on unwinding of the stimulus program this year, keep a lid on the prices. As the risk of oil spike has subsided considerably, the upside on this counter looks capped.

Crude

Gold

Having risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performance is one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualized return of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banks liquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected to further lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, one could expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as the money flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since 2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCY following the ECB’s LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -following the Fed’s signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - could rattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the central bankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore up confidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probability will not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger than the size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create a big impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed an intermediate top and one could see consider price pull back going ahead in the year 2013.

15

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

Page 16: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

16

Real Estate Outlook

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Residential

Prices continued to be at peak levels in most markets with sales being slow,

more so in the premium segment. Going forward, the expectation of a general

recovery of the economy is likely to improve the sentiment in the real estate

sector. Residential asset class shall continue to be the prime focus. If the RBI

does implement key policy rates cuts, cheaper home loans will significantly

improve the liquidity in the market.

A lot of new supply is expected to hit the market specially in NCR and Mumbai

regions in the near future as developers have been waiting for some time for

the liquidity situation to improve. In December, DLF launched a 13 acre

project, SkyCourt in Gurgaon which was completely sold off.

On an average, projects with Rs. 4,000 – 5,000 per sq. ft. entry pricing with

good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbs are expected

to see good percentage returns.

The recent increase of 5-30% in the Ready Reckoner values, used to calculate

the stamp duty cost, from January 1 by the Maharashtra Government may act

as the slight dampener for the Mumbai market.

Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards

nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising

aspiration to own quality products and the growth in

infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is

more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities.

Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,

Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well.

Commercial/IT

Commercial asset class continues to be under pressure as most markets

continue to have an over-supply . Lease transactions are still slow as demand

has not yet revived. On an average, lease rentals have also not seen much

increase.

However, specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger

lock-in periods may present good investment opportunities over a long-term

horizon.

Lower unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes have led to

stable lease rentals in Tier II cities.

Page 17: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Real Estate Outlook

17

Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Retail

Government has recently approved 51% foreign

ownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brand

retail. Entry of foreign retailers in the Indian markets may

infuse new enthusiasm in the sector and improve the

demand for retail space.

However, it will take a gestation period of at least an year

for this to translate into actaul offtake of space. In the

immediate near term, unsold invesntory levels continue

to be high levels and lease rentals stagnant.

Long term investments in retail space along pre-

eastblished hubs may be attractive.

Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared

to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these

rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been

stagnant.

The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n the

Tier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change this

phenomenon can be known with more certainty once the

effect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities.

Land

As Tier I cities continue to grow, new proposed /

implemented infrastructure developments at the

outskirts of these cities are making adjoining lands

expensive and attracting a lot of investor attention.

Caution should however be exercised due to the

complexities typically involved in land investments.

Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established

growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation

due to low investment base in such areas.

Page 18: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Why Karvy Private Wealth?

We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class

Open Architecture – Widest array of products

Intensive Research

We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-S Service Promise” :

• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products

The KPW 3-S Service promise:

Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do.

Honest, unbiased advise

A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.

Pedigreed Senior Management Team

18

Page 19: Advice For The Wise  March 2013

Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group

companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the

accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on

their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any

information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of

Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to

time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that

they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other

securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further

restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their

respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new

Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments

Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.

Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:

702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .

(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)

SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236,

NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.:

INP000001512” 19

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Contact Us

Bangalore 080-26606126

Chennai 044-45925923

Coimbatore 0422-4291018

Hyderabad 040-44507282

Kolkata 033-40515100

Mumbai 022-33055000

Gurgaon 0124-4780228

Email: [email protected] SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767 Website: www.karvywealth.com

Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

Pune 020-30116238

Kochi 0484-2321831

Delhi 011-43533941

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