advancing solar activity understanding: the mutual role of space weather activities
DESCRIPTION
Advancing Solar Activity Understanding: The Mutual Role of Space Weather Activities. M. Messerotti 1,2 and H. Lundstedt 3 1 INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste (Italy) 2 Dept. of Physics, University of Trieste (Italy) 3 Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Lund (Sweden). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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ESWW3 16.11.2006 Bruxelles ,
M. Messerotti & H. Lundstedt 1
Advancing Solar Activity Understanding: The Mutual Role of
Space Weather Activities
M. Messerotti1,2 and H. Lundstedt3
1INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste (Italy)2Dept. of Physics, University of Trieste (Italy)
3Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Lund (Sweden)
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Outline of the talk
• The knowledge on SA relevant to SpW
• The Sun as a complex system
• SA as manifestation of coupled multi-scale chaotic processes
• The characterization of SA
• Advanced analysis and prediction of SA
• Conclusions
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Solar Drivers
M. Messerotti, 2005
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Characteristic Time Scales of Solar Drivers
M. Messerotti, 2005
M. Messerotti, 2005
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Activity Triggers
M. Messerotti, 2005
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Available Modelsfor Solar Drivers
F. Zuccarello, 2005
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The Sun as a Complex Plasma System
Plasma
Global Fluid Motion
Global Magnetic Field
Differential Fluid Motion
Non-axisymmetric Motions
Localized Magnetic Fields
Global Fluid Motion
Large Scale Magnetic Field
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Solar Activity: a Manifestation ofCoupled Multi-Scale Processes
FLUIDMOTION
MAGNETICTOPOLOGY
MEDIUMSPATIALSCALE
LARGESPATIALSCALE
SMALLSPATIALSCALE
MEDIUMTIME
SCALE
LONGTIME
SCALE
SHORTTIME
SCALE
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Solar Activity: a Manifestation ofCoupled Multi-Scale Chaotic Processes
FLUIDMOTION
MAGNETICTOPOLOGY
MEDIUMSPATIALSCALE
LARGESPATIALSCALE
SMALLSPATIALSCALE
MEDIUMTIME
SCALE
LONGTIME
SCALE
SHORTTIME
SCALE
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Physical Description of Solar Activity
MAGNETICENERGYBUILD UP
LARGESPATIALSCALE
SMALLSPATIALSCALE
MHD
MHD + KIN
MAGNETICENERGYRELEASE
LARGESPATIALSCALE
SMALLSPATIALSCALE
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Advanced Physical Description of Solar Activity
MAGNETICENERGYBUILD UP
LARGESPATIALSCALE
SMALLSPATIALSCALE
MHD
MHD + KIN
MAGNETICENERGYRELEASE
LARGESPATIALSCALE
SMALLSPATIALSCALE
STOCHASTICITY
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Observational Description of Solar Activity
• Descriptor := Observable
A = A ( s ; t ; E ) A |Rn
with s |R3 (spatial variable)
t |R1 (time variable)
E |Rn (energy variable)
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Characterizing an Active Region
AR
• Morphology Descriptor
M = M ( x, y, z ) Classification
• Magnetic Topology Descriptor
M = M ( x, y, z ) Classification
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Characterizing the Evolution of an Active Region
AR
• Formation Process
• Time evolution of the Morphology Descriptor
M = M ( x , y , z ; t )
• Time evolution of the Magnetic Topology Descriptor
M = M ( x , y , z ; t )
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Characterizing the Geoeffectivity of an AR
AR
• Formation Process
• Morphology Descriptor
M = M ( x , y , z ; t ) Precursor(s)
• Magnetic Topology Descriptor
M = M ( x , y , z ; t ) Precursor(s)
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Conclusions
• The complexity of SA is due to: – Stochastic character of processes– Process occurrence at different temporal and spatial
scales– Time-space-energy coupling among concurrent
physical processes
• A global model of SA is perhaps impossibile to set up as even localized phenomena occur as outcome of the evolution of the global plasma system
• One has to rely on the time series analysis of diachronic measurements of descriptors to improve the models for getting reliable forecasts