advanced information tech - rhb securities€¦ · while the company is set to capitalise on...

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OSK Research 22 Feb 2013 OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA Platform THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research Company Update Advanced Information Tech Ready To Take Off! A specialist in ICT network system integration, Advanced Information Technology Pcl. (AIT) has a stronger balance sheet and higher profitability among its peers. While the company is set to capitalise on Thailand’s huge investment in its 3G network, it also mulls overseas expansion, starting with its neighboring countries. We reiterate our BUY call with a new THB110 TP, based on a 14.7x PE, or a 30% discount to its close peers’ 21x average PE multiple. New opportunities in neighbouring countries. AIT’s management sees an opportunity to provide its ICT services abroad. The first stop is Myanmar, where the company set up a representative office to provide ICT network system integrator services. Management added that any deal on the new project in Myanmar is expected to be finalised within 1Q13. In addition, AIT is collaborating with LOXLEY in a 50:50 joint venture named Loxley & AIT Holdings Co., Ltd, which will be investing in new projects domestically and abroad. Revising up FY13 earnings. We gather from the latest call with the company that AIT is joining the bid for new projects in Thailand worth THB1bn in total. The deals are expected to be finalised within 1Q13. Given its high historical success rate, we project the company to have an 85% chance of winning the bid. Most of the projects are of short durations and therefore can be delivered within 3-4 months. In addition to the potential new deals, AIT has already been awarded projects worth THB93m, which are waiting to be signed. Hence, we are upgrading our FY13 revenue and net profit forecasts by 3% and 5.3% respectively. Note that, of the total THB3.43bn in its backlog, THB3.23bn is expected to be realised in FY13. Our FY13 full-year revenue forecast is THB5.22bn (+28% y-o-y), below management’s target of THB5.4bn. Reiterate BUY with a higher TP. In valuing the stock, we apply a 14.7x PE or a 30% discount to its close peers’ 21x average PE, given the company’s smaller size. We believe the counter should be re-rated at a higher PE multiple (compared with less than 10x historical average currently), due to the solid industry prospects, the company’s impressive net profit growth of 24% p.a. and its underleveraged balance sheet. Despite being smaller in size than its competitors, AIT generates higher margins and a more stable revenue stream. With an FY13-FY15 net profit CAGR of 24%, AIT is trading at a cheap 0.4x PEG. Thailand Research Team 66 2862 9999 ext 2030 Buy THB110.0 Target THB110 Previous THB59.6 Price THB82.0 Computers AIT offers integrated ICT services to both private and governmental organizations with Cisco as its major partner. Stock Statistics Bloomberg Ticker AIT TB Market Cap THB5,639m USD189m 52 wk H/L price (THB) 82.0 50.8 3m ADT THB40.5m YTD Returns 39% Beta (x) 0.70 Major Shareholders (%) Oontornpan Family 14.7 Thai NVDR 8.9 Mr. Somsak Laoworawit 7.2 Share Performance (%) Month Absolute Relative 1m 38.4 30.6 3m 43.9 22.7 6m 49.1 23.3 12m 49.8 13.6 6-month Share Price Performance 78 84 89 95 101 106 112 117 123 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 22-Feb-12 24-Apr-12 25-Jun-12 24-Aug-12 25-Oct-12 26-Dec-12 Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) Source: Bloomberg Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover (THBm) 4,579 4,835 4,188 5,403 6,213 Recurring net profit (THBm) 388 439 367 514 592 Recurring net profit growth 24.4% 13.0% (16.4%) 40.0% 15.1% Core EPS (THB) 5.65 6.38 5.34 7.47 8.60 Core EPS growth 24.4% 13.0% (16.4%) 40.0% 15.1% DPS (THB) 4.50 5.00 4.00 5.61 6.45 Dividend Yield 5.5% 6.1% 4.9% 6.8% 7.9% Core P/E (x) 14.5 12.8 15.4 11.0 9.5 Return on average equity 34.0% 33.2% 25.9% 34.0% 35.9% P/B (x) 4.47 4.07 3.90 3.58 3.27 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 7.7 10.1 6.5 5.5 Net debt to equity net cash net cash 10.4% net cash net cash OSK vs consensus EPS Source: Company data, OSK Research estimates

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Page 1: Advanced Information Tech - RHB Securities€¦ · While the company is set to capitalise on Thailand’s huge investment in its 3G network, it ... Load Balancer - Thammasat ... flood

OSK Research 22 Feb 2013

OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA Platform

THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research

Company Update

Advanced Information Tech Ready To Take Off! A specialist in ICT network system integration, Adv anced Information Technology Pcl. (AIT) has a stronger balance sheet and higher profitability among its peers. While the company is set to capitalise on Thailand’ s huge investment in its 3G network, it also mulls overseas expansion, starting with its neighboring countries. We reiterate our BUY call with a new THB110 TP, bas ed on a 14.7x PE, or a 30% discount to its close peers’ 21x average PE multipl e.

New opportunities in neighbouring countries. AIT’s management sees an opportunity to provide its ICT services abroad. The first stop is Myanmar, where the company set up a representative office to provide ICT network system integrator services. Management added that any deal on the new project in Myanmar is expected to be finalised within 1Q13. In addition, AIT is collaborating with LOXLEY in a 50:50 joint venture named Loxley & AIT Holdings Co., Ltd, which will be investing in new projects domestically and abroad.

Revising up FY13 earnings. We gather from the latest call with the company that AIT is joining the bid for new projects in Thailand worth THB1bn in total. The deals are expected to be finalised within 1Q13. Given its high historical success rate, we project the company to have an 85% chance of winning the bid. Most of the projects are of short durations and therefore can be delivered within 3-4 months. In addition to the potential new deals, AIT has already been awarded projects worth THB93m, which are waiting to be signed. Hence, we are upgrading our FY13 revenue and net profit forecasts by 3% and 5.3% respectively. Note that, of the total THB3.43bn in its backlog, THB3.23bn is expected to be realised in FY13. Our FY13 full-year revenue forecast is THB5.22bn (+28% y-o-y), below management’s target of THB5.4bn.

Reiterate BUY with a higher TP. In valuing the stock, we apply a 14.7x PE or a 30% discount to its close peers’ 21x average PE, given the company’s smaller size. We believe the counter should be re-rated at a higher PE multiple (compared with less than 10x historical average currently), due to the solid industry prospects, the company’s impressive net profit growth of 24% p.a. and its underleveraged balance sheet. Despite being smaller in size than its competitors, AIT generates higher margins and a more stable revenue stream. With an FY13-FY15 net profit CAGR of 24%, AIT is trading at a cheap 0.4x PEG.

Thailand Research Team 66 2862 9999 ext 2030

Buy THB110.0 Target THB110

Previous THB59.6

Price THB82.0

Computers

AIT offers integrated ICT services to both private and governmental organizations with Cisco as its major partner.

Stock Statistics

Bloomberg Ticker AIT TB Market Cap THB5,639m

USD189m

52 wk H/L price (THB) 82.0 50.8

3m ADT THB40.5m

YTD Returns 39%

Beta (x) 0.70

Major Shareholders (%)

Oontornpan Family 14.7 Thai NVDR 8.9

Mr. Somsak Laoworawit 7.2

Share Performance (%)

Month Absolute Relative 1m 38.4 30.6

3m 43.9 22.7

6m 49.1 23.3

12m 49.8 13.6

6-month Share Price Performance

78

84

89

95

101

106

112

117

123

47

52

57

62

67

72

77

82

87

22-F

eb-

12

24-A

pr-

12

25-J

un-1

2

24-A

ug-

12

25-O

ct-1

2

26-D

ec-1

2

Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-1 3F Dec-14F

Total turnover (THBm) 4,579 4,835 4,188 5,403 6,213

Recurring net profit (THBm) 388 439 367 514 592

Recurring net profit growth 24.4% 13.0% (16.4%) 40.0% 15.1%

Core EPS (THB) 5.65 6.38 5.34 7.47 8.60

Core EPS growth 24.4% 13.0% (16.4%) 40.0% 15.1%

DPS (THB) 4.50 5.00 4.00 5.61 6.45

Dividend Yield 5.5% 6.1% 4.9% 6.8% 7.9%

Core P/E (x) 14.5 12.8 15.4 11.0 9.5

Return on average equity 34.0% 33.2% 25.9% 34.0% 35.9%

P/B (x) 4.47 4.07 3.90 3.58 3.27

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 7.7 10.1 6.5 5.5

Net debt to equity net cash net cash 10.4% net cash net cash

OSK vs consensus EPS

Source: Company data, OSK Research estimates

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OSK Research 22 Feb 2013

OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA Platform

COMPANY BACKGROUND Founded in 1992 , Advanced Information Technology PCL. (AIT) was established by a group of ICT experts including Mr Siripong Oontornpan, who currently serves as the group’s CEO. As a system integrator and a total ICT solutions provider, the company provides complete solutions from consulting and designing to installation and implementation of ICT networks to both private and public organisations. It also provides after-sales, maintenance and upgrading services post-installation. AIT continued to expand its business throughout the years and was first listed in 2003. It was awarded ‘SET’s Best Performance Award’ in 2009 and ‘Forbes Asia’s 200 Best Under a Billion’ in 2010. Strong track record . Today, AIT ranks among Thailand’s leading system integrators with over 1,000 customers and 250 employees around the country. The company has a strong partnership with the world’s renowned ICT companies, e.g. Cisco, IBM, HP, DELL, Aver, Microsoft, Synnex and many more providers of new technology, software and hardware. This allows AIT to purchase equipment at a reasonable cost, thereby boosting its competitive advantage. With a few big players in the industry, AIT’s popularity continues to grow as it strives to provide the best services to its customers. Currently, its top priority is to bid for the ICT projects valued between small amounts to several thousand million baht. Apart from providing ICT services, the company also sells ICT equipment. Its major source of revenue comes from government organizations such as TOT Public Company Limited (TOT) and CAT Telecom Public Company Limited (CAT), which jointly contribute to more than 50% of the company’s total revenue.

Figure 1: AIT’s business description

Source: OSK, AIT

Figure 2: AIT’s key customers references Source: OSK, AIT

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OSK Research

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Figure 3: AIT’s track record Source: OSK, AIT

Routing & Switching Data Centers & Storage

Clients Technologies Clients Technologies- TOT/CAT/BFKT - Core Router: CRS-1, GSR 12000, - TOT/CAT - Networking Infrastructure:- Uninet XR-12000 - ThaiPBS : Nexus 7000, Nexus 5000,- Thammasat University/Taksin University/ - Aggregation Router: 7600, ASR-9000, - Mahidol University Nexus 2000 Uttaradit Rajabhat University/ ASR-1000 - Unified Computing Servers Rambhai Barni Rajabhat University/ - Access Router - Strorage SASIN - Core Switch: 6500, Nexus 7000- GHB/KCS - Aggregation Switch: 4500- PEA - Access Switch- MICT- ThaiPBS/NSTDA- Mitsubishi- Amway/HomePro

Security Solutions Video Solutions

Clients Technologies Clients Technologies- TOT/CAT - Firewall/VPN - CTH - CCTV- HomePro/Magnecom - IPS/IDS - Phuket City - Head End solutions- GHB/CIMB - NAC - ThaiPBS - Telepresence- Thammasat University/ Taksin University - Log Management - Video Conferencing- OBEC - Security Management:- ThaiPBS CS-MARS, Iron Port, CSM

- E-mail and Web security: Iron Port- RADIUS

Wireless Solutions Business Solutions

Clients Technologies Clients Technologies- TOT/CAT - Controller-based AP - TOT Billing - Billing Software- Uninet - Autonomous Ap - DOL - GIS - ERP Software- Thammasat University/Chulalongkorn - Indoor/Outdoor - TOT - OPMS - Maintenance Management University/ Taksin University/Mae Fah - Point-to-point - PEA - Business Intelligence - GIS Software Luang University/ Uttaradit Rajabhat - Data Warehouse Software University/ Rambhai Barni Rajabhat University- GHB/KCS- Toyota/Magnecom- ThaiPBS

Unified Communication Network Optimizations

Clients Technologies Clients Technologies- TOT/CAT - IP Phones - TOT/CAT - Cache Solutions- Toyota/Osotspa - Softphone - GHB - Load Balancer- Thammasat University/Taksin University - Unified Personal Communicator - Toyota/Honda - Compression- ThaiPBS - MeetingPlace Express - HomePro - Traffic Management: SCE, Allot

- Contact Center Express- Contact Center- Mobile Communicator- Unified Messaging

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Figure 4: AIT’s service centres nationwide Source: OSK, AIT

FINANCIALS Impressive historical performance. AIT’s revenues and net profits grew at an impressive 30.8%-47% CAGR in FY07-FY11, but took a hit in 2012 due to the impact from the great flood and a reshuffling of CAT’s and TOT’s board of directors. The group’s gross margin has been hovering around 23%, while its net margin grew from 5.7% in 2007 to 9.3% in 2012. Meanwhile, its ROE and ROA improved greatly to over 25% and 15% respectively in 2012.

Figure 5: AIT’s revenue and growth Figure 6: AIT’s gross and net margins

Source : OSK, SEC, AIT

Source : OSK, SEC, AIT

Robust balance sheet. AIT’s financial profile is solid with low interest-bearing debt and strong cash balances as most projects are self-financed. As at end-Dec 2012, the company has THB245m in cash on hand and an outstanding interest-bearing debt of THB402m, resulting in a net debt to equity ratio of 0.1x. The low leverage, we believe, provides the company plenty opportunities to increase its gearing ratio without great difficulty should the company need financing in the future.

Figure 7: AIT’s net debt to equity ratio (x) Source: OSK, AIT, SEC

Major source of revenue from SOE. Even though AIT provides services to both private and public enterprise, its major revenue source comes from CAT and TOT. In FY12, CAT and TOT contributed 34.1% and 20.6% of AIT’s total revenue respectively. The majority of its revenue is project-based, at 87% of total revenue.

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Figure 8: AIT’s revenue breakdown by customers Figure 9: AIT’s revenue breakdown by type

Source : OSK, AIT

Source : OSK, AIT

Stronger revenue, margins. Compared to other players in the market, AIT has a more stable revenue stream and higher gross and net margins.

KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Benefiting from massive 3G investment. In preparation for Thailand’s first 3G wave, the government has allocated THB7.6bn in its budget for the ICT sector in FY13, up 102% from that of last year. While the number may be small, it signals the government’s increasing attention on the sector, which has a high potential for growth. We believe the budget for the sector will continue to grow in the future, as state telcos are ramping up upgrades on their existing networks, along with private players. As such, AIT stands to benefit from the new system integration and upgrading works of existing systems.

Figure 10: Ministry of ICT’s budget Source: OSK, Bureau of the budget

Huge backlog. As at end-Dec 2012, AIT’s orderbook stood at THB3.43bn, of which THB3.23bn will be realised this year and the remainder from 2014 onwards. The group received large orders in the fourth quarter last year, most of which are short-term jobs that can be delivered within a short time. Thus, we expect most of this backlog to be booked within 1H13. Note that AIT’s backlog grew by 16% in Dec 2012, from THB2.6bn a month ago. Seeking more recurring revenue. Despite having to auction for orders/projects, some customers actually prefer to purchase AIT’s services given its expertise and efficiency. Currently, revenue from works such as network system integration represents more than 85% of the company’s total revenue, while revenue from services or maintenance jobs account for only ~12%. AIT is now looking for a more stable revenue source by attempting to acquire long-term projects or concessions. We believe the company is heading in the right direction as such revenue streams will be secured further. Expanding abroad. In 2012, AIT opened its first representative office in Cambodia together with a local partner, with its core business being providing advisory and training services. Although the company generated only a small proportion of revenue from this venture, we view this as the first step to acquiring more long-term projects abroad. We also believe that AIT’s position is stronger than local players in the neighbouring countries, given its expertise and cost advantage as a major partner of several IT companies. In addition, it is collaborating with LOXLEY in a 50:50 joint venture named Loxley & AIT Holdings Co., Ltd, which will be investing in new projects domestically and abroad, including a long-term deal in Myanmar, which management expects to conclude within the first quarter this year.

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Attractive valuation, handsome yield. In the past, AIT has been trading at a cheap multiple compared to its peers, mainly due to the complexity of its business nature and the smaller size of projects the company takes on. However, in view of its underleveraged balance sheet and the huge potential growth in the ICT sector, AIT’s current valuation is considered rather conservative. Hence, we believe the counter deserves to be trading at a higher multiple. It is currently trading at a low PEG of 0.45x, based on FY12-FY14 net profit CAGR of 24% and 11x FY13 PE. The stock also offers a decent yield of around 6% p.a.

PEERS ANALYSIS In an effort to boost investments in both the private and public telecommunication sectors, the government has sharply increased its 2013 ICT investment budget from last year. Despite increasing interests among new players, we believe only a few professional players – who are equipped with expertise, cost advantage, and most importantly, connections with the government – would survive in the long term. In fact, these players are confident of securing certain projects in the market as each specialises in a particular area and has a relationship with a particular organisation. Below is a summary of AIT’s peers that are listed in Thailand’s stock market. Forth Corporation Public Company Limited (FORTH) Business overview: • Manufactures and distributes electronic components • Sets up technology-related products/machines e.g. vending machines, phone top-up machines, traffic lights, nurse call systems.

Figure 13: FORTH’s business Source: OSK, FORTH

Figure 11: AIT’s historical PE Figure 12: AIT vs peers average historical PE

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

Source : OSK, AIT, SEC

Electronic components & distributor Technology rela ted

Telecom business Retail business

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Jasmine Telecom Systems Public Company Limited (JTS) Business overview:

• Provides turnkey telecommunications and IT systems integration. There are two major types of work under this category. First, the company bids for projects from the government or private companies. Second, the company undertakes a subcontract by other winning bidders.

• Distributes imported communication devices and leases public payphones

MFEC Public Company Limited (MFEC) Business overview: • Builds IT systems • Installs infrastructure ICT projects

Figure 14: FORTH’s revenue and growth Figure 15: FORTH’s gross and net margin

Source : OSK, FORTH, SEC

Source : OSK, FORTH, SEC (Note:2012* = annualized figure)

Figure 16: JTS’s revenue and growth Figure 17: JTS’s gross and net margin

Source : OSK, JTS, SEC

Source : OSK, JTS, SEC (Note:2012* = annualized figure)

Infrastructure Services Software Services Products Ind ustry Solution- Network Communications - Identity Management - Purigin - FSI Services- System & Storage - Enterprise Content Management - TelePresence Thailand + Operational Risks (Basel II)- DBMS & Middleware - Business Information Management - Hacker Surrender Solution (HSS) + Asset Liability Management- Information Security - Business Service Management - MFEC Touch Solution + IAS 39- Outsourcing Services - Business Integration Service - Ingress Payment Gateway- Opensource Services - PromptNow for Anything on Mobile

MFEC Products & Services

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Loxley Public Company Limited (LOXLEY) is a consortium engaged in various businesses like ICT, trading, services and a joint venture business group. Its ICT business products and services include software sales, providing total IT solutions, integrating internet systems and so on. Its ICT business accounted for 64% of total revenue in 2011.

Figure 20: LOXLEY’s ICT business unit

Source: OSK, LOXLEY

Samart Telcoms Public Company Limited (SAMTEL) is affiliated to the Samart Group. The company provides total IT solutions and telecommunication system integration services. SAMTEL takes on both small and big projects (and focuses on the latter which are mostly from government organizations). The company is set to benefit from Thailand’s 3G network expansion, as it was awarded the THB20bn project from TOT.

Figure 23: TOT’s 3G installation timeline

Source: OSK, SAMART

Figure 18: MFEC’s revenue and growth Figure 19: MFEC’s gross and net margin

Source : OSK, MFEC, SEC

Source : OSK, MFEC, SEC (Note:2012* = annualized figure)

Figure 21: LOXLEY’s revenue and growth Figure 22: LOXLEY’s gross and net margin

Source : OSK, LOXLEY, SEC

Source : OSK, LOXLEY, SEC (Note:2012* = annualized figure)

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Other small players include: • PCC Co. Ltd • CDG Group • Datacraft Co., Ltd • Netone Network Solution Co., Ltd • The Communication Solution Co.,Ltd VALUATION Maintain BUY at higher TP of THB110. We continue to like the stock thanks to the bright investment outlook for Thailand’s telecommunication sector. As the country enters its first 3G phase, existing networks will need to be upgraded and new systems installed. This will eventually lead to massive spending by both private and public companies. We believe AIT will stand to benefit from this huge investment upcycle. As such, the counter should be re-rated to trade at a higher PE multiple given the industry’s rock-solid prospects, the company’s impressive net profit growth, its underleveraged balance sheet and a more stable margin and revenue stream. Despite being smaller-sized compared to its competitors, AIT generates higher margins and a more stable stream of revenue. We applied a 14.7x PE, which is a 30% discount to its close peers’ average PE of 21x due to the company’s smaller size; this resulted in a new TP of THB110, providing an upside of 34% from the current price. With a FY13-FY15 net profit CAGR of 24%, AIT is trading at a cheap 0.4x PEG. Note that we shifted our valuation method to PE multiple to reflect the current market environment and offer a more accurate picture of its short-term performance.

Figure 26: AIT’s historical PE Figure 27: LOXLEY’s historical PE

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

Figure 28: SAMTEL’s historical PE Figure 29: JTS’s historical PE

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

Figure 24: SAMTEL’s revenue and growth Figure 25: SAMTEL’s gross and net margin

Source : OSK, SAMTEL, SEC

Source : OSK, SAMTEL, SEC (Note:2012* = annualized figure)

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Figure 30: MFEC’s historical PE Figure 31: FORTH’s historical PE

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

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FINANCIAL

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec -14F

Total turnover 4,579 4,835 4,188 5,403 6,213

Cost of sales (3,596) (3,652) (3,186) (4,166) (4,791)

Gross profit 984 1,183 1,002 1,236 1,422

Gen & admin expenses (156) (278) (282) (308) (354)

Selling expenses (172) (241) (220) (254) (292)

Other operating costs (114) - - - -

Operating profit 542 663 501 675 776

Operating EBITDA 556 713 566 756 877

Depreciation of fixed assets (14) (49) (65) (81) (101)

Amortisation of intangible assets (1) (1) (1) - -

Operating EBIT 542 663 501 675 776

Interest expense (6) (16) (17) (7) (7)

Pre-tax profit 535 648 483 668 769

Taxation (147) (209) (116) (154) (177)

Minority interests (0) 0 (0) (0) (0)

Profit after tax & minorities 388 439 367 514 592

Net income to ord equity 388 439 367 514 592

Recurring net profit 388 439 367 514 592 Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec -14F

Total cash and equivalents 312 226 253 779 828

Inventories 807 571 462 651 749

Accounts receivable 1,065 1,018 1,878 1,036 1,192

Total current assets 2,352 2,485 3,437 2,746 3,090

Other current assets 168 670 844 280 322

Total investments - - 25 - -

Tangible fixed assets 228 327 276 342 388

Intangible assets (195) (88) (76) (123) (168)

Total other assets 11 9 9 11 13

Total non-current assets 44 248 234 230 232

Total assets 2,396 2,734 3,671 2,977 3,322

Short-term debt - - 360 - -

Accounts payable 664 668 1,074 762 876

Other current liabilities 467 589 704 555 639

Total current liabilities 1,131 1,257 2,138 1,318 1,515

Total long-term debt - 50 43 43 43

Other liabilities - 38 46 47 49

Total non-current liabilities - 89 89 90 92

Total liabilities 1,131 1,346 2,227 1,408 1,607

Share capital 331 337 344 344 344

Retained earnings reserve 35 35 35 35 35

Other reserves 895 1,012 1,068 1,197 1,345

Shareholders' equity 1,261 1,384 1,447 1,575 1,723

Minority interests 6 6 0 0 0

Other equity (1) (2) (3) (6) (8)

Total equity 1,266 1,388 1,443 1,569 1,715

Total liabilities & shareholders' equity 2,396 2,734 3,671 2,977 3,322

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Cashflow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Operating profit 542 663 501 675 776

Depreciation & amortisation 15 50 66 81 101

Change in working capital (231) (191) (343) 759 (103)

Other operating cashflow (11) 80 (65)

Operating cashflow 314 602 159 1,514 774

Interest paid (6) (16) (17) (7) (7)

Tax paid (147) (209) (116) (154) (177)

Cashflow from operations 161 377 26 1,354 590

Capex (21) (257) (30) (103) (103)

Other new investments 1 3 (24) 25 0

Other investing cashflow 19 50 1 (115) (18)

Cashflow from investing activities (0) (204) (53) (192) (121)

Dividends paid to ordinary shareholders (238) (300) (322) (386) (444)

Proceeds from issue of shares 86 17 17 - -

Increase in debt - 75 361 (360) -

Other financing cashflow 5 (0) (6) (4) 6

Cashflow from financing activities (147) (208) 51 (749) (438)

Cash at beginning of period 245 253 217 245 657

Total cash generated 13 (35) 23 412 31

Forex effects (5) (1) 5 (1)

Implied cash at end of period 253 217 245 657 687

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

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OSK Research

OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 13

RECOMMENDATION CHART

2

12

22

32

42

52

62

72

82

Feb-08 May-09 Sep-10 Dec-11

Price Close

NR

66.0

62.0

59.6

Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Prof it Unrated

Source : OSK, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-01-23 Unrated 59.6 64.0

2012-11-09 Neutral 62.0 58.8

2012-07-20 Buy 66.0 56.3

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OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 14

OSK Guide to Investment Ratings Buy : Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months

Trading Buy : Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral : Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

Take Profit : Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell : Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months

Not Rated : Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but OSK does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. However, information and opinions expressed will be subject to change at short notice, and no part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst OSK’s and its affiliates’ clients. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. OSK, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may be materially interested in any such securities. Further, OSK, its affiliates and related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies), as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this research report. OSK do not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses, loss of profits or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report or further communication given in relation to this report. The term “OSK” shall denote where applicable,the relevant entity distributing the report in the particular jurisdiction mentioned specifically herein below and shall refer to OSK Investment Bank Berhad, its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies. All Rights Reserved. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior consent of OSK. Malaysia This report is published and distributed in Malaysia by OSK Research Sdn Bhd (206591-V), 6th Floor, Plaza OSK, Jalan Ampang, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, a wholly owned subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad (OSKIB). This report is printed by Xpress Print (KL) Sdn. Bhd., No. 17, Jalan Lima, Off Jalan Chan Sow Lin, 55200 Kuala Lumpur. As of 21 Feb 2013, OSKIB does not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 21 Feb 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) Advanced Information Tech Singapore This report is published and distributed in Singapore by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd (Reg. No. 200808705N), a wholly owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. As of 21 Feb 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 21 Feb 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) Advanced Information Tech Special Distribution by OSK Where the research report is produced by an OSK entity (excluding DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) and distributed in Singapore, it is only distributed to "Institutional Investors", "Expert Investors" or "Accredited Investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an "Institutional Investor", "Expert Investor" or "Accredited Investor", this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd.

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OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 15

Hong Kong This report is published and distributed in Hong Kong by OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited (“OSKSHK”), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia (“OSKIB”). OSKSHK, OSKIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. OSKSHK, OSKIB and/or other affiliates may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. OSKSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia, a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL, 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower, 98, North Sathorn Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia.

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