ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN EASTERN ONTARIO

APRIL 15, 2013

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?

IPCC DEFINITION UNFCCC DEFINITION

Climate change in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

(IPCC 2007)

PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE IN EASTERN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE CENTURY - TEMPERATURE

Annual Mean Temperatures in Eastern Ontario are projected to increase

3-4 degrees Celsius by 2100

PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE IN EASTERN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE CENTURY - PRECIPITATION

Precipitation amounts and patterns will change 0-10% less

annual precipitation

More precipitation falling as rain, less snowfall

Higher risk of “events”

Difference in Precipitation by 2100 (%) 60 to 70 50 to 60 40 to 50 30 to 40 20 to 30 10 to 20 0 to 10 0 to -10 -10 to -20 -20 to -30 -30 to -40

Source: MNR

KEY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

1. Gradual increase in average annual temperatures

o Greater changes seen in seasonal and monthly averageso Minimum temperatures increasing

2. Changes in average precipitation amounts and patterns

3. Increase in frequency and severely of ‘extreme events’

4. Increased weather variability

CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION SHOULD GO HAND-IN-HAND, BOTH ARE EQUALLY IMPORTANT!

Adaptation: Managing what we cannot avoidTakes place through adjustments to reduce vulnerability or to enhance resilience in response to observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme weather events.

Mitigation: Avoiding what we cannot manageReduction in greenhouse gas emissions through; o use of energy efficient

vehicles and buildings o well-planned communitieso public transit systemso reduction in industrial

emissions

BEING PROACTIVE IN ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Developing a proactive, planned response to climate change impacts, which includes developing the capacity to respond to unexpected impacts and extremes, makes good sense for the community.

Source: MNR

WHO SHOULD ADAPT?

Adaptation is needed at all levels Government agencies (federal, provincial, municipal,

etc.) Conservation Authorities (watershed scale) Your community – industry, business, local

organizations such as lake associationso On-shore (riparian and terrestrial systems)o In waterways

Youo Take measures on your property and in your

community

LOCAL CHAMPIONS

It is important in every community to have local “champions” who;o understand the importance of taking adaptive measures,

and o are willing to work with the community to bring about

necessary changes

Local champions are usually a small group of individuals from government, industry, and the public who understand the importance of a cooperative approach to working towards adaptation

LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN Largest inland lake in Ontario

o Population of 350,000 in watershedo 47% of land area is agriculturalo 65 rare species

Watershed plan Difference from most watershed plans

is level of protection through legislation – Lake Simcoe Protection Act (2008)

LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN (CONT’D)

4 guiding principles Short and long term priorities identified Includes targets, indicators, and policies 4 policy categories

o ‘Designated’ policieso ‘Have regard to’ policieso ‘Monitoring’ policieso Strategic actions (no legal effect)

Builds on other provincial policies, plans, and acts (e.g. PPS, Clean Water Act)

LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN (CONT’D)

Plan organized by prioritieso Aquatic lifeo Water qualityo Shorelines and natural heritageo Impacts – invasive species, climate change,

recreational activities The Lake Simcoe Environmental

Management Strategy (LSEMS) ‘informs’ the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan

LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Objective to “Protect natural resilience of the entire Lake Simcoe ecosystem” List of potential impacts of climate change on

other areas of the plan Identification of need for development of

adaptation strategy Risk assessment Further research of impacts on specific sectors Integrated monitoring program Development of sector specific, integrated adaptation

plans

DRAFT LAKE SIMCOE ADAPTATION STRATEGY

Will include suggestions for Adaptive Actions

Source: MNR

LEARNING FROM ‘BEST PRACTICES’ Look at studies and work done in other

areas and identify similarities with local situationo More efficient than duplicating effort

Identify;o applicable recommendations and actionso differences, modifications need to adjust to

local impactso Local data and information gaps

WHAT CAN WE DRAW FROM THE LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN? 4 guiding principles

1. Ecosystem approacho Consider interactions and effects of all elements within the system

2. Subwatershed approacho Policies and management actions are scaled appropriately, either

specific to a subwatershed, across a number of subwatersheds, or across a watershed

3. Precautionary approacho “Caution will be exercised to protect the environment when there

is uncertainty about environmental risks”4. Adaptive management approach

o Continuously monitor outcomes of all actions and modify approaches where needed in a timely fashion

WHAT CAN WE DRAW FROM THE LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN? (CONT’D)

1. Set priorities, first by developing strategic plans to protect resilience of natural systems and functions (green infrastructure).

2. Include consideration of climate change impacts in policies and management plans.

3. Identify changing risks and vulnerabilities to ‘traditional’ land use practices and ‘gray’ infrastructure.

4. Develop and implement monitoring programs to identify and address local knowledge gaps and measure progress.

5. Identify collaborative opportunities.

LOCAL WORK-TO-DATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION - EXAMPLES

1. Fish, Fisheries, and Water Resources: Adapting to Ontario’s Changing Climate - MVC• integrated watershed hydrologic and hydraulic

modelling of the Mississippi River watershed• the changing composition of the local fish community• public workshops held over two days

2. Agency information workshops for Mississippi watershed and area in 2007/2008, 2012 – MVC

3. Organizational review of climate change impacts – RVCA

MISSISSIPPI-RIDEAU CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION VULNERABILITY STUDIES

MISSISSIPPI-RIDEAU CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION VULNERABILITY STUDIES

Focus within the Mississippi-Rideau Source Protection Region boundaries• Mississippi Valley and Rideau Valley watersheds

Collection of sector specific studies (themes) of changing vulnerabilities in the region – green infrastructure

Geographical scale of each study will be unique

Building on completed studies, available data, and knowledge gap identification

PRACTIONER’S GUIDE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO’S ECOSYSTEMS

Released in by MNR in 2011

Developed to provide guidance to MNR staff and other resource practitioners on how to mainstream climate change adaptation into daily business

Will be used as a guide in upcoming local vulnerability studies

Exposure Sensitivity

Potential impact

Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability

Risk assessment is used in many fields to think about future issues. A complimentary approach called ‘vulnerability assessment’ may

provide valuable insights, particularly from an ecosystem perspective.

“Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.”

IPCC, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Source: MNR

ESTIMATING FUTURE VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS

PROPOSED THEMES WITHIN MR REGION FOR VULNERABILITY STUDIES Water management (quantity) in the Mississippi

River• Surface water levels • Surface water intakes • Waterpower

Water quality in the region • Nutrient loading• Algal blooms

Provincially significant wetlands Species at Risk remediation Terrestrial ecosystem management Agricultural water needs

NEXT STEPS IN LOCAL ADAPTATION WORK1. Identify climate change impacts locally

and potential adaptation optionso Changes in risk and vulnerabilityo Use this (and other) information to help prioritize

adaptation plans and actions

2. Develop collaborative partnershipso Eastern Ontario climate change adaptation working group

o –multi-sectoro Potential for smaller local groups to identify local scale

impacts and carry out adaptation projects

“Climate change is likely to become one of the most significant drivers of biodiversity loss by the end of the century”

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005

FINAL THOUGHTS ON SUSTAINABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

During preliminary climate change adaptation study done in 2007-2008 MVC staff came to realization that a healthy, functioning ecosystem is more resilient to changes and variations in climateo This is reflected in much of the literature from around the

world on adaptation strategies Healthy ecosystems support diversity and vs.

versao Natural corridors and linkages important as climate changes

PROTECTING AND ENHANCING OUR ‘GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE’

Economic benefits to protecting natural functions and systems are becoming more apparent over time

Worth considering how to do things in a more sustainable fashiono Water conservationo Protection of water qualityo Wise land use choices

SUSTAINABILITY MAKES GOOD SENSE Many people cite ‘quality of life’ as important which

includes access to clean water and air, natural systems such as forestso Should include retention/protection of quality of life factors in

land use design

Sustainable options can be considered ‘no regret’ actions as beginning steps in adaptationCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STARTS WITH WISE, SUSTAINABLE USE AND PROTECTION OF THE SAME NATURAL VALUES THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO OUR COMMUNITIES

THANKS!