address to the atherton chamber of commerce · 2012-06-05 · address to the atherton chamber of...
TRANSCRIPT
THE TABLELANDS & A CHANGED WORLD ECONOMY
ADDRESS TO THE ATHERTON CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 17 November 2011
BY WS (Bill) CUMMINGS CUMMINGS ECONOMICS
www.cummings.net.au
A PERIOD OF RAPID INDUSTRIALISATION (IN CHINA & INDIA)
ON A SCALE NOT SEEN SINCE THE RAPID INDUSTRIALISATION OF EUROPE & NORTH AMERICA IN THE LATE 1800’S/EARLY 1900’S
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REGIONAL ECONOMIES
SERVICES STRUCTURE
BASE INDUSTRIES
LOOKING FURTHER FORWARD CHALLENGES
But China’s emergence also presents challenges. If commodity prices do stay at their current relatively high levels on the back of strong emerging world demand, the mineral extraction sector and all those parts of the Australian economy that service it and feel its flow-on effects, will expand. Other sectors will, relatively, contract over time..… These sorts of adjustment in the economy have industrial, geographical and social dimensions.
“ “
Glen Stevens, July 2009, Reserve Bank of Australia
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Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
PILOTS DISPUTE
ASIAN CRISIS
ANSETT COLLAPSE
YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT
ESTIMATED TOURISM EXPENDITURE FNQ
DOMESTIC $M INTERNATIONAL $M TOTAL $M
2003/04 $1,424 $1,020 $2,444
2004/05 $1,319 $1,106 $2,425
2005/06 $1,468 $1,110 $2,578
2006/07 $1,545 $1,041 $2,586
2007/08 $1,546 $1,030 $2,576
2009 (YE DEC) $1,741 $813 $2,554
2010 (YE DEC) $1,440 $795 $2,235
Source: Cummings Economics from Tourism Research Australia, NVS & IVS data.
TOURISM
CHINA & INDIA INCOMES STILL LOW
DIRECT FLIGHTS DON’T EXPECT TOO MUCH
oMINERALS, ENERGY, BASIC AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.
o HIGHER VALUE & HIGHER PROTEIN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
o TOURISM
JAPAN - THREE PHASES
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MASSIVE DEMAND FOR MINERALS & BASIC AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
o CAN THE REGION TAP INTO?
oWHAT DOES IT NEED TO DO?
PARALLELS WITH LATE 1800’S/EARLY 1900’S
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INCREASING VALUE OF MINING IN THE REGION
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1000
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$MN
Value of production Value of sales
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VALUE OF MINING
REGIONAL SALES $900M
FLY IN, FLY OUT $240M
SHIPPING TRADE $600M
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www.cairnsandmining.com.au
Queensland - Three Regional Production Hubs
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An outstanding asset base to underpin the growth strategy
• Chillagoe Region
• Mungana Underground Mine
• Mungana Polymetallic Processing Plant
• Central Region
• Baal Gammon Open Cut Mine
• Mt Garnet Underground Mine
• Mt Garnet Polymetallic Processing Plant
• Mt Garnet Copper Processing Plant
• Balcooma Underground Mine
• Southern Region
• Vomaka Open Cut
• W45 Underground Mine
• Thalanga Polymetallic Processing Plant
KAGARA LIMITED
Studies Outcomes of Scoping Study
• Potential production of approximately 120,000oz of gold, 20,000t of copper and
1.5Moz of silver per annum achievable
• Mine life of at least 10 years
• Cash costs of A$600/oz.*
• Potential throughput rates of 4mt per annum
• Large open pit at Red Dome (23mt) to generate significant upfront cash flow
• Additional underground operations at both Mungana and Red Dome
Bankable Feasibility Study Underway
*Cash Costs are Net of by-product (copper and silver) credits Metal Price assumptions ,Copper US$4/lb. and Silver Price of US$30/oz. 15
MUNGANA GOLD MINES
Project Location
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Mt Garnet proposed Central Mill location:
CONSOLIDATED TIN LIMITED
Over $1 BN PA
CURRENT $300M
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VALUE OF SALES
TABLELANDS HINTERLAND
PROSPECTIVE INCREASES HINTERLAND
o BAUXITE o IRON ORE o GOLD o RARE EARTHS o GEO THERMAL o COAL GAS o COAL o DIATOMITE o PERLITE o MARBLE
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EST VALUE MINING SURROUNDING REGIONS
PNG, FREEPORT, NT, OTHER NORTH CENTRAL Q’LD : $42 BN AIRLINKS TO MINING RELATED CENTRES
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Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
MEASURES OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
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Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
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Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (FARM GATE)
FAR NORTH $1.2bn
VICTORIA $10.3bn
SE & SW QLD $4.4bn
o AUSTRALIAN MARKETS (REDUCED TRANSPORT COSTS)
o BASE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS – CHINA & INDIA
o BIO FUELS
o BIO TECHNOLOGY (EG. BIO PLASTICS ETC.)
o EXTENT OF WATER RESOURCES
STRANDS OF DEMAND FOR INCREASED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
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Agricultural Development
oCASSAVA
oTROPICAL WHEAT
oUPLAND RICE
oPULSE CROPS
oCOTTON
oPONGAMIA
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NEW CROPS
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TOURISM
AIRPORT
MINING & AGRICULTURE
SEAPORT CAIRNS & MOURILYAN
LAND TRANSPORT KURANDA RANGE
PALMERSTON
MINING ROADS
HANN LINK
PENINSULA ROAD
RAILWAY?
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLICATIONS
THE TABLELANDS & A CHANGED WORLD ECONOMY
ADDRESS TO THE ATHERTON CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 17 November 2011
BY WS (Bill) CUMMINGS CUMMINGS ECONOMICS
www.cummings.net.au