adaptive planning
DESCRIPTION
Adaptive Planning. Joint Staff, J-7 Joint Operational War Plans Division. Title 10 Authorities for Planning. Strategic Guidance for Planning. National Security Strategy. PRESIDENT. National Defense Strategy National Military Strategy. SECDEF/CJCS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Adaptive Planning
Joint Staff, J-7
Joint Operational War Plans Division
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Title 10 Authorities for Planning
Cohen-Nunn ActCohen-Nunn Act: Civilian Oversight of War Plans: Civilian Oversight of War Plans
SECDEF ROLE, sec. 113:Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), with President of the United States (POTUS) approval, and after consultation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS), shall provide CJCS written policy guidance for the preparation and review of contingency plans.
Such guidance shall be provided every two years or more frequently as needed …
USD(P) ROLE, sec. 134:The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy [USD(P)] shall assist the SECDEF in preparing written policy guidance for the preparation and review of contingency plans and in reviewing such plans.
CJCS ROLE, sec. 153:CJCS shall be responsible for…
…providing for the preparation and review of contingency plans which conform to policy guidance from the President and SECDEF…
... advising the SECDEF on critical deficiencies and strengths in force capabilities identified during the preparation and review of contingency plans and assessing the effect of such deficiencies and strengths…
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Strategic Guidance for Planning
COMBATANTCOMMANDERS
CJCS
SECDEF/CJCS
PRESIDENT
SECDEF
Combatant Command Combatant Command (COCOM) Campaign (COCOM) Campaign and Contingency and Contingency
PlansPlans
Combatant Command Combatant Command (COCOM) Campaign (COCOM) Campaign and Contingency and Contingency
PlansPlans
National Security Strategy
National Security Strategy
National Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military Strategy
Joint Strategic Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan Capabilities Plan
(JSCP)(JSCP)
Joint Strategic Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan Capabilities Plan
(JSCP)(JSCP)
Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)
Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)Guidance for Employment of the Force (GEF)
CJCSI 3141.01DCJCSI 3141.01D
Management and Review Management and Review of Campaign and of Campaign and
Contingency PlansContingency Plans
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Operation Iraqi Freedom
““Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”
-- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Adaptive Planning RoadmapAdaptive Planning Roadmap, 13 Dec 2005, 13 Dec 2005
““Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces Today’s environment demands a system that quickly produces high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”high-quality plans that are adaptive to changing circumstances.”
-- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Adaptive Planning RoadmapAdaptive Planning Roadmap, 13 Dec 2005, 13 Dec 2005
• Options Civilian leaders wanted multiple
options
Civilian leaders wanted relative risk assessments for each option
• Assumptions/Assessments Some wrong or not applicable
• Cumbersome planning process and outdated planning technology Difficult to modify plan quickly and put
into execution
• Bottom Line: Extraordinary effort to adapt plan to
rapidly changing strategic circumstances
CoalitionGround Forces
CoalitionGround Forces
Ground Forces and
SOF
Ground Forces and
SOF
Ground Forces and Special Operations
Forces (SOF)
Ground Forces and Special Operations
Forces (SOF)
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• Cold War Planning Assumed forces would be ready and available Static conventional threats Forces postured to mitigate time-distance challenges and convey resolve Assumed little strategic change during a 2-3 year planning cycle Deliberate plans informed force structure/sizing analysis
• Contemporary Planning Long-term commitment of large portion of forces to Counterinsurgency (COIN) Operations Force rotations regardless of posture Dynamic/global unconventional and conventional threats ~ 6 month planning cycle with continuous assessments – “Living Plans” Contingency plans relevant and executable within resource constraints
Revolution in Planning
Implications for planning Joint Operations:
- Need a force management construct that decrements apportioned forces not only for allocated forces but also for forces otherwise not available due to other constraints
- Need a mission-based readiness reporting system and a global visibility capability
- Need capability to rapidly adapt and assess plans in light of changing guidance and assumptions…and, if necessary, rapidly transition to deployment and execution
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• Department of Defense (DoD) initiative to transform the way we plan and execute Joint Operations:
Better plans, with more options, more quickly; more SECDEF interaction with planning
Keep plans relevant in a rapidly changing environment; easily adapt plans for execution
Leverage technology to maximize planner intellectual effort (art) and minimize the labor intensive effort (science)
• AP process provides COCOM planners with better initial guidance, more opportunities to articulate risk:
JSCP directs combatant commands to use AP process for all top-priority contingency plans
Provokes discussion and provides a vehicle for gaining in-depth understanding of strategic and operational problems
The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans rapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances requirerapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances require
The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans The joint capability to create and revise situationally relevant plans rapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances requirerapidly and to a high level of quality, as circumstances require
Adaptive Planning (AP)
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Go From Here...Go From Here...Go From Here...Go From Here...
Base Plan(1 COA)
Operational Plan (OPLAN) 9999
Single Course of Action (COA) Single Course of Action (COA) with One or Two Brancheswith One or Two Branches
Single Course of Action (COA) Single Course of Action (COA) with One or Two Brancheswith One or Two Branches
Branch Plan 1
Branch Plan 2
Multiple Courses of ActionMultiple Courses of Action with Multiple Branches with Multiple Branches
Multiple Courses of ActionMultiple Courses of Action with Multiple Branches with Multiple Branches
……To HereTo Here……To HereTo Here
OPLAN 9999A
OPLAN 9999B
OPLAN 9999C
Transforming The Way We Plan
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Go from here….Go from here….
To here….To here….
• Near-parallel planning across echelons• Continual collaboration in virtual space
• Sequential planning by echelon• Periodic collaboration in physical space Detailed Feasibility Analysis
Done Late in Process
Detailed Feasibility Analysis Done Early in the Process
• Process jump-started by detailed, Process jump-started by detailed, clear guidance – up frontclear guidance – up front
• Planning benefits from iterative Planning benefits from iterative discussions between SECDEF and discussions between SECDEF and combatant commanderscombatant commanders
• Process jump-started by detailed, Process jump-started by detailed, clear guidance – up frontclear guidance – up front
• Planning benefits from iterative Planning benefits from iterative discussions between SECDEF and discussions between SECDEF and combatant commanderscombatant commanders
t
t
Transforming The Way We Plan
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Campaign Planning Construct
DoD began to address shortcomings of “contingency-centric” planning …
– Introduced “Phase 0” to address pre-conflict “shaping” activities
– Increased emphasis on security cooperation … with an interagency perspective
– Introduced “transition-to-stability” objectives to set conditions for lasting peace
– Expanded contingency planning collaboration with other agencies / international partners
e.g. recent collaboration w/State & USAID on Concept Plan (CONPLAN) guidance
While these initiatives took steps in the right direction, they required an overarching strategy to ensure proper prioritization, integration, and balance of effort
A strategy-centric approach requires a A strategy-centric approach requires a newnew planning construct planning construct
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Key LinkagesKey LinkagesKey LinkagesKey Linkages
The Paradigm Shift
The campaign plan becomes the mechanism for organizing, integrating and prioritizing security cooperation and shaping activities
– Security cooperation activities nested within the larger set of shaping activities
Security Cooperation/shaping activities should be designed to create effects that support the achievement of regional endstates
– Regional objectives, in turn, support the global objectives of the National Defense and Military Strategies
Security Cooperation/
Shaping Activity
SupportsSupports
Security Cooperation/
Shaping Effect
SupportsSupports
Regional orFunctionalEndstate
SupportsSupportsGlobal
Endstate
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Campaign Plan Summary
Strategy. A COCOM comprehensively integrates its steady-state, peacetime activities via the framework of a regional or functional strategy
Campaign Plan. The COCOM “operationalizes” its strategy by means of a campaign plan that:
– Integrates and synchronizes its steady-state activities and operations to achieve its strategic endstates.
– Ensures its various Phase 0 activities do not work at cross purposes with each other or shaping / security cooperation activities
– Provides a mechanism for interagency collaboration in a region or functional area
Contingency Plans. Under this construct contingency plans become branches to the overarching campaign plan
– Account for the possibility that broader campaign endstates cannot be achieved peacefully
New Planning ConstructNew Planning Construct
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6-Phase Planning Construct: Activities and Phases
Lev
el o
f M
ilit
ary
Eff
ort
Phase 0
PhasesOPLAN termination
Theater Shaping
DeterPhase I
Seize theInitiativePhase II
DominatePhase III
StabilizePhase IV
EnableCivilAuthorityPhase V
Shape Shape
OPLAN xxxx
Shaping
Phase 0
OPLAN xxxx
Shaping
Shaping Activities
Deterring Activities
Seizing the Initiative Activities
Dominating ActivitiesStabilizing A
ctivities
Enabling Civil
Authority A
ctivities
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Global Shaping
OPLAN Activation
Trigger Event
Campaign Plan
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Legacy Planning Process
The 24-month deliberate planning cycle – too long
Too little SECDEF influence, too late in planning cycle
Feasibility analysis time consuming and too late in the process
Plans one-dimensional – need multiple options
Plans “static” and difficult to adapt – need flexibility and periodic updating to stay relevant
No technology to support ongoing collaboration – horizontally and vertically
Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently responsive and relevant to the demands of a responsive and relevant to the demands of a
dynamic security environmentdynamic security environment
Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently Traditional deliberate planning is insufficiently responsive and relevant to the demands of a responsive and relevant to the demands of a
dynamic security environmentdynamic security environment
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In Progress Reviews (IPR)
6 Months to 1 Year
Refine, Adapt, Terminate or Execute Plan
Develop Plan
DevelopConcept
AnalyzeMission
IPR-A(Assumptions)
IPR-A(Assumptions)
PlanningPlanningGuidanceGuidancePlanningPlanningGuidanceGuidance
GEF/JSCP
StrategicGuidance
Guidance Guidance Guidance,as required
PlanApproval
Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Office of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEFOffice of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEF
Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Requires regular COCOM involvement with Joint Staff, Office of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEFOffice of Secretary of Defense, and SECDEF
Plan Development ProcessPlan Development Process
IPRs are central to AP and offer multiple opportunities to IPRs are central to AP and offer multiple opportunities to ensure plans are relevant, feasible, & politically acceptableensure plans are relevant, feasible, & politically acceptable
IPR-C(Concept)
IPR-C(Concept)
IPR-F(Final)IPR-F(Final)
IPR-R(Review)
IPR-R(Review)
9 mo
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Networked on the Networked on the Global Information GridGlobal Information GridNetworked on the Networked on the Global Information GridGlobal Information Grid
RetailRetailSystemsSystems
RetailRetailSystemsSystems
WholesaleWholesaleSystemsSystems
WholesaleWholesaleSystemsSystems
ServicesServicesLogisticsLogisticsSystemsSystems
ServicesServicesLogisticsLogisticsSystemsSystems
MilitaryMilitarySealiftSealift
CommandCommand
MilitaryMilitarySealiftSealift
CommandCommand Surface Surface Deployment and Deployment and
Distribution Distribution CommandCommand
Surface Surface Deployment and Deployment and
Distribution Distribution CommandCommand
AirAirMobilityMobility
CommandCommand
AirAirMobilityMobility
CommandCommand
AlliedAlliedIntelIntel
AlliedAlliedIntelIntel
TheaterTheaterIntelIntel
TheaterTheaterIntelIntel
Nat’lNat’lIntelIntelNat’lNat’lIntelIntel
DefenseDefense LogisticsLogistics SystemsSystems
DefenseDefense LogisticsLogistics SystemsSystems
DefenseDefenseTransportationTransportation
SystemSystem
DefenseDefenseTransportationTransportation
SystemSystem
GlobalGlobal ForceForce MgmtMgmt
GlobalGlobal ForceForce MgmtMgmt
DefenseDefenseReadiness Readiness
SystemSystem
DefenseDefenseReadiness Readiness
SystemSystem
DefenseDefenseIntelligenceIntelligence
SystemSystem
DefenseDefenseIntelligenceIntelligence
SystemSystem
SECDEFSECDEFStrategicStrategicDirectionDirection
SECDEFSECDEFStrategicStrategicDirectionDirection
COCOMCOCOM““Living Plans”Living Plans”
COCOMCOCOM““Living Plans”Living Plans”
POTUSPOTUSPOTUSPOTUSNationalNationalSecuritySecurityStrategyStrategy
NationalNationalSecuritySecurityStrategyStrategy
Defense Defense StrategyStrategyDefense Defense StrategyStrategy
USUSCoastCoast GuardGuard
USUSCoastCoast GuardGuard
USUS Air Air
ForceForce
USUS Air Air
ForceForce
USUSMarineMarineCorpsCorps
USUSMarineMarineCorpsCorps
USUSNavyNavyUSUS
NavyNavy
USUSArmyArmyUSUS
ArmyArmy
AP E
X
At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, readiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and executionreadiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and execution
At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, At full maturity, Adaptive Planning will integrate situation monitoring, readiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and executionreadiness, global force management, intelligence, planning, and execution
Networked System of Systems
AutomaticTriggersAutomaticTriggers Automatic
TriggersAutomaticTriggers
TransportationTransportationCommandCommand
(TRANSCOM)(TRANSCOM)
TransportationTransportationCommandCommand
(TRANSCOM)(TRANSCOM)