adapting to realities - the new enviroment maximilian ... · 37,88 10,01 vegetable textile fibres...
TRANSCRIPT
Adapting to realities - The new enviroment
Maximilian Foedinger
What products are in demand? Product label
Imported value in 2009, US Dollar Mio
Imported value in 2013, US Dollar Mio
Imported value in 2014, US Dollar Mio
Growth 5y Growth 1y
All products
12.587.676
18.584.549
18.740.071 47,64 0,84 Bird skin, feathers, artificial flowers, human hair
3.569
4.952
5.915 38,77 19,46
Zinc and articles thereof
9.722
13.411
15.252 37,94 13,73
Cocoa and cocoa preparations
33.892
43.153
48.705 27,32 12,87
Knitted or crocheted fabric
17.388
26.210
29.277 50,73 11,70
Headgear and parts thereof
5.881
7.783
8.674 32,33 11,44 Umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, etc
2.261
2.751
3.062 21,67 11,29
Ceramic products
33.522
44.741
49.452 33,47 10,53
Nickel and articles thereof
20.517
28.907
31.912 40,89 10,40 Vegetable textile fibres nes, paper yarn, woven fabric
2.530
3.542
3.908 40,00 10,34
Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet
154.076
193.437
211.720 25,55 9,45
Import Absolute in Mio. USD Country
Imported value in 2009, US Dollar Mio
Imported value in 2013, US Dollar Mio
Imported value in 2014, US Dollar Mio
Growth 5y average
Growth 1y
United States of America
1.601.896
2.265.911
2.346.041 148.829
80.129
Switzerland
155.378
200.934
275.054 23.935
74.120
Viet Nam
69.949
132.033
178.313 21.673
46.280
United Kingdom
552.042
657.223
694.823 28.556
37.601
Germany
938.363
1.194.483
1.223.837 57.095
29.354
Mexico
234.385
381.210
399.977 33.118
18.767
Spain
287.502
332.267
350.978 12.695
18.711
Poland
149.570
205.614
216.687 13.423
11.073
Korea, Republic of
323.082
515.573
525.564 40.496
9.991
Iran, Islamic Republic of
-
45.807
55.555 no data
9.748
Czech Republic
104.850
142.526
152.004 9.431
9.478
Import Growth in %
Country Imported value in
2009, US Dollar Mio
Imported value in 2013, US Dollar
Mio
Imported value in 2014, US Dollar
Mio Growth 5y Growth 1y
Cambodia
212
130
307 45,16 136,90
Kiribati
67
97
180 167,99 84,92
Guinea
1.463
1.943
3.585 145,03 84,50
Kyrgyzstan
2.974
5.983
9.328 213,65 55,90
Ethiopia
7.974
14.899
21.914 174,83 47,08 Falkland Islands (Malvinas)
75
136
199 167,31 46,04
Cambodia
3.906
9.227
13.265 239,64 43,76
Switzerland
155.378
200.934
275.054 77,02 36,89
Viet Nam
69.949
132.033
178.313 154,92 35,05 Northern Mariana Islands
71
95
124 74,60 29,79
Guinea-Bissau
296
315
397 34,14 25,92
Top 10 increased demand
Product label
Exported value in 2009, US
Dollar thousand
Exported value in 2013, US Dollar Mio
Exported value in 2014, US Dollar Mio
Growth 5y Growth 1y
Commodities not elsewhere specified
266.610
251.770
338.648
21,27
25,65
Zinc and articles thereof
9.707
13.244
15.622
37,86
15,23
Footwear, gaiters and the like, parts thereof
82.042
127.262
144.790
43,34
12,11
Cocoa and cocoa preparations
34.128
43.707
49.399
30,91
11,52 Articles of apparel, accessories, not knit or crochet
156.611
209.569
234.928
33,34
10,79
Works of art, collectors pieces and antiques
15.413
24.742
27.514
43,98
10,07
Nickel and articles thereof
18.729
27.130
30.148
37,88
10,01 Vegetable textile fibres nes, paper yarn, woven fabric
2.784
4.208
4.668
40,35
9,86
Bird skin, feathers, artificial flowers, human hair
3.779
7.880
8.608
56,09
8,45
Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products nes
682
806
878
22,33
8,25
Top 10 Asia‘s export commodities
Code Product label Exported value in
2014 TUSD
TOTAL All products
7.534.120
'85 Electrical, electronic equipment
1.510.112
'27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc
1.339.499
'84 Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc
879.628
'87 Vehicles other than railway, tramway
371.669
'71 Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc
302.998
'39 Plastics and articles thereof
252.896
'90 Optical, photo, technical, medical, etc apparatus
228.405
'29 Organic chemicals
179.213
'61 Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet
167.124
Central Asia top 10 Code Product label
Exported value in 2014
Mio USD
TOTAL All products
98.059
'27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc
72.522
'28 Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes
3.124
'72 Iron and steel
3.096
'71 Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc
2.773
'26 Ores, slag and ash
2.772
'74 Copper and articles thereof
2.485
'52 Cotton
1.643
'10 Cereals
1.139
'79 Zinc and articles thereof
703
'25 Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement
626
Asia’s Share on World Exports
38.85
38.68
39.47
40.25
40.37
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
Asia
In Mio USD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World 15054 18057 18091 18552 18659
Asia Aggregation 5849 6986 7142 7469 7534
Inner Asian Trade
60%
3391
4100 4286
4470 4509
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Inner Asian Trade in Mio USD
Imports of Asian countries 2001
Imports of Asian countries 2014
Inner Asian Imports 2001
Inner Asian Import 2014
Russia / EU Trade
Product label
European Union (EU 28)'s exports to Russian Federation
Value in 2012 Value in 2013 Value in 2014 Growth
All products 158060 160.171 137.546 -12,98
Meat and edible meat offal 2057 2.150 370 -82,02
Nickel and articles thereof 154 111 33 -78,78
Products of animal origin, nes 51 47 28 -45,16
Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 1831 1.506 1.068 -41,71
Manufactures of plaiting material, basketwork, etc. 4 4 3 -41,00
Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof 3829 3.213 2.337 -38,97
Lead and articles thereof 5 6 3 -35,93 Vegetable textile fibres nes, paper yarn, woven fabric 9 9 6 -35,92
Meat, fish and seafood food preparations nes 253 234 163 -35,74
Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons 1681 1.689 1.082 -35,66
Russia‘s new Suppliers for Meat
Exporters Imported value in
2012 Mio USD Imported value in
2013 Mio USD Imported value in
2014 Mio USD Growth
Switzerland 0,048 0,05 5,505 11368,75
Kazakhstan 0,146 3,185 10,928 7384,932
Turkey 0,909 2,767 25,359 2689,769
Colombia 0,849 0 6,913 714,2521
Serbia 7,29 0,94 57,424 687,7092
China 7,926 5,968 36,258 357,4565
Belarus 316,708 530,829 672,02 112,1891
New Zealand 35,447 39,907 55,498 56,56614
Chile 65,572 59,752 99,299 51,43506
Argentina 172,691 190,628 261,141 51,21865
Brazil 1670,453 1952,27 2411,856 44,38335
Iceland 3,416 2,127 3,654 6,967213
Paraguay 570,178 652,663 601,66 5,521434
Bloomberg Financial news 15.10.2015
The Phase One of RMB Cross-border Inter-bank Payment System (CIPS) started
operation on 8 October 2015. The CIPS, as an important financial infrastructure,
provides clearing and payment services for financial institutions in the cross-border
RMB and offshore RMB business. The CIPS is designed to be built in two phases. The
first phase, when completed, facilitates processing of cross-border RMB business and
supports settlement of cross-border trade in goods and services, cross-border direct
investment, cross-border financing and find transfer for individual customers. The
CIPS Phase One has the following features: real time gross settlement of fund transfer
of both individual customers and financial institutions; one-point entry by all direct
participants for centralized clearing through a shortened route of clearing to achieve
efficiency; the adoption of ISO20022 message dash board for straight-through
processing of cross-border businesses; its operation hours covering the time zones of
Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania, where the RMB business essentially take place.
Yuan dominates Asia - Pacific Area
12% 12.10%
21.70% 12.30%
21.80%
16%
28%
23%
7% 31%
Jan-Apr 2012 Jan-Apr 2015
AUD USD HKD JPY RMB
Source: Swift
US Money Supply
US Velocity
EU and US Inflation Rate
Oil Price (WTI)
GDP Top Performer Country Name 2013 2014 South Sudan 13,13 36,17 Turkmenistan 10,20 10,30 Ethiopia 10,49 9,94 Congo, Dem. Rep. 8,50 9,05 Cote d'Ivoire 9,22 9,00 Myanmar 8,24 8,50 Uzbekistan 8,00 8,10 Palau -2,03 7,95 Mongolia 11,64 7,82 Maldives 7,72 7,56 Lao PDR 8,52 7,46 India 6,90 7,42 Mozambique 7,31 7,37 Sri Lanka 7,25 7,37 China 7,68 7,35 Dominican Republic 4,78 7,34 Chad 5,70 7,30 Mali 2,14 7,22 South Asia 6,59 7,13 Cambodia 7,36 7,03
GDP Slow performer
Country Name 2013 2014 Venezuela, RB 1,34 -4,00 Equatorial Guinea -4,84 -3,11 Cyprus -5,36 -2,26 Serbia 2,57 -1,81 St. Lucia -0,43 -1,60 West Bank and Gaza -4,28 -1,50
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1,80 -0,45 Italy -1,70 -0,43 Croatia -0,94 -0,40 Macao SAR, China 10,66 -0,35 Guinea 2,30 -0,30
Gambia, The 4,80 -0,20 Finland -1,32 -0,11 Japan 1,61 -0,10 Brazil 2,74 0,14 France 0,66 0,18 Barbados -15,26 0,21 Austria 0,23 0,30
Conclusion
The Economic Crisis in US/EU is not over – it makes a pause
Asia uncouples from the rest of the world
Yuan will be a dominating Currency in World Trade
Raw material dependent economies have to tighten their belts and invest in diversification
Africa is getting momentum