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Eleftheria Vasileiadou, Matthijs Hisschemöller, Arthur Petersen, Channah Betgen, Wilco Hazeleger, Iris de Hoog, Erik, Min

Adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors

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Bridging the gap: Problem definition

Uncertainties with respect to changes in extreme weather events

Need for robust adaptation governance

Adaptation options with different, even conflicting, outcomes

... Indicators of extreme events for evaluating adaptation options relevant to stakeholders and robust for modellers

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Research questions1. Which perspectives are perceived as most important for

adaptation to extreme weather events by different social actors?

2. To what extent do actors’ perspectives correlate to actor characteristics, such as their affiliation with specific sectors, level of concern and knowledge? 

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Why perspectives of social actors?1. Robust adaptation strategies: scenario independent; beneficial

to society inclusion of stakeholders

2. Tapping in local and tacit knowledge

3. Ensuring collaboration in adaptation measures

The way to find out about this is through a research approach that focuses on identifying the underlying frames that shape social actors´ views and opinions rather than focusing on (volatile) opinions and preferences

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Perspectives, meaning…Underlying frames that we use to make sense of our observations

and experiences.

Personal construct theory with a focus on bipolar constructs

e.g. Wet vs. Dry

Safe for me vs. Dangerous for me

I can intervene vs. I cannot intervene

Constructs are both a result of one’s experiences and examination of people and places, as well as they shape how individuals frame their world and experiences.

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Determinants of differences in perspectivesAffiliation with economic sectors

Level of information

Involvement in events and workshops

Level of concern

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Case sectorsImmediate response to extreme weather:

public health (6); crisis management (5); water sector (6)

Affected by extreme weather:hospitality (6); recreation (9); transportation (5), Vulnerable

individuals (4)

Total: 41 interviews

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Repertory Grid TechniqueBipolar constructs can be found, using as probing devices the “elements”: instances of the topic under investigation.

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Example

How are two photos similar and different from the third?

1 2 3

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ProcedureSelect the 3 “most important constructs, for adaptation

to extreme weather events”Ranking on a 1-7 scale all photos on these selected

constructsFactor analysis of 121 constructs (PCA)Additional questions: How informed you feel? (1-7) How concerned you feel? (1-7), Have you participated before in relevant events?(0/1)

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FindingsComponent Variance

explainedInterpretation

Perspective 1 16% Very disastrous, rescue needed

Perspective 2 15% New versus old weather extremes

Perspective 3 12% Prepare for (material) damage

Perspective 4 12% People involved

Perspective 5 12% Beyond imagination

Perspective 6 6% Natural resources management

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Perspective 1 “Very disastrous, rescue needed!” (12 interviewees)

i.e. Very disastrous --------------------------------------- least disastrous

Rescue needed fast --------------------------------- help can wait

Violent/ you can do little about --------------------peaceful and calm

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Perspective 2 “New versus old weather extremes” (13 interviewees)

i.e. High temperatures ------------------------------low temperatures

No impact on transportation------------------ Impacts on transportation

Happens the recent years---------------------happens since long

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Perspective 3 “Prepare for (material) damage” (8 interviewees)

i.e. Damage on electricity infrastructure-------no damage on electricity infras.

Need to prepare ------------------------------- no need to prepare

Causes maximal damage ------------------- causes no damage

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Perspective 4 “People involved” (4 interviewees)

i.e. Health impacts-------------------------------- No health impacts

Induced by humans-------------------------- not induced by humans

Response with help-------------------------- no response with help

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Perspective 5 “Beyond imagination” (8 interviewees)

i.e. Extreme------------------------------------------------ not extreme

Complete disaster-----------------------------------not complete ramp

Not possible to intervene-------------------------- possible to intervene

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Perspective 6 “Natural resources management” (3 interviewees)

i.e. Related to water (shortage) -------------- not related to water (shortage)

Threat to food production------------------no threat to food production

Complex adaptation measures ----------simple adaptation measures

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Determinants  Relation to

extreme weatherInformedness (AA=55%)

Prior event (Yes=41%)

Perspective 1 Affected 18

Responding 3

29% 14%

Perspective 2 Affected 11

Responding 5

59% 24%

Perspective 3 Affected 7

Responded 5

42% 8%

Perspective 4 Affected 3

Responding 7

80% 100%

Perspective 5 Affected 7

Responding 6

77% 78%

Perspective 6 Responding 4 60% 60%

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Adaptation governance immediate help and crisis management (perspective 1);

addressing heat waves and drought (perspective 2);

preparing infrastructure for storms (perspective 3);

addressing events that endanger human lives and have victims (perspective 4);

natural resource management and spatial planning (perspective 6).

Are robust strategies, covering multiple perspectives, possible?

Perspectives are cross-sectoral: Sector-specific strategies may be too limiting

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How do extremes change in the future?

• Coldest winter day in the year: 1oC to 2.9oC warmer• Hottest summer day in the year: 1oC to 3.8oC warmer

• Long periods of precipitation in winter: 4% to 12% increase

• Extreme storms in summer: 5% to 27% increase

• No insight for changes in wind extremes

KNMI’06 scenarios for 2050

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Communicating extremesWe need to re-think the role and impact of events and workshops:

participants use formal and elaborate perspectives, but they don’t necessarily feel the need to prepare!

They may feel more prepared, but less concerned about extreme weather!