adapting farm practices to climate change: a real-world example
TRANSCRIPT
Adapting Farm Practices to Climate Change: A Real-World Example
And lots of help from: NIACS!
Dan Dostie [email protected]. govNRCS Project Liaison to USDA Hubs MW & NE
Natural Resources Conservation Service
Climate Change Challenges and Considerations in the Northeast Region
1. Increasing threats from intense precipitation, inland & coastal flooding, heat waves . . .
2. Increasing risks (of loss or gain) impacting agriculture, fishing, & forestry; increasing vulnerabilities of ecosystems
3. Farmers have options – take the risk or adapt . . . pay for it now or later?
4. Adaptive capacity, variable in the region, could be overwhelmed.
5. How do we mitigate the risks and vulnerabilities?
Adapting to a changing climate . . . more than one way to do it . . .
Each decision is unique and will vary based upon:• Place: Location & Site Conditions
• Purpose: Goals & Objectives
• People: Values, Culture, & Resources
Developing a Climate Adaptation Workbook to guide farmers in making climate-informed decisions
Climate Adaptation Process
Resource: Climate Change Assessments
Resource: Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
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5 Step 1: DEFINE location, project, and time frames.
Where are you located?
What do you care about?
1. Where? Clinton County, Pennsylvania
The Place: current climate
It rains here. 44-48” now.
25 year 24 hour rainfall intensity is
6” for this area
The Place: Ridges and Valleys
The Place: Sugar Valley, PA 17xxx
The Farm Business: A Dairy
950 dairy cows2200 acres crops
The Land: Farmstead and Crops
Major Land Uses:
Farmstead• Milking Center• Main Free Stall barn• Waste Management
Facilities
Crop production • Corn for grain• Corn for silage• Alfalfa hay What’s a pasture?
What do we care about?
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5 Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities
How is this place & farm vulnerable to climatic-driven change?
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5 How is this place and farm uniquely affected by climatic-driven changes?
1. Gather information about impacts to the region
2. Evaluate the place for risk of exposure to impacts
3. Consider the farm’s ability to adjust
4. What are the weaknesses of the system? Any opportunities?
Gather regional climate info
What are the climate-driven changes for this place and farm?
Direct Effects (T or O?):
A. More extreme precipitation B. More extreme winter storms C. Warmer winters on average
increase GDDs D. More extreme summer
stormsE. Hotter summers on average F. Increased carbon dioxide
levels
Indirect Effects:
G. Warmer winters resulting in weed, insect, disease carryover, migration
H. Warmer winters resulting in carryover or migration of livestock pathogens and parasites
I. Hotter summers resulting in increased drought intensities
How could changes impact cropland in region?
Potential Impacts to Cropland:
A. may increase soil erosion and polluted runoff, flash flooding of streams
B. may damage perennial forages, winter annual crops
C. may increase plant growth D. may damage to perennial forages,
summer annual crops E. may slow crop growthF. may increase crop growth G. may harm crops and cause a
decline in plant health & productivity
H. NA to crops I. may deplete soil moisture and
further stress crops
Direct/Indirect Changes:
A. More extreme precipitation B. More extreme winter storms C. Warmer winters on average increase GDDs D. More extreme summer stormsE. Hotter summers on average F. Increased carbon dioxide levelsG. Warmer winters resulting in weed, insect,
disease carryover, migrationH. Warmer winters resulting in carryover or
migration of livestock pathogens and parasites
I. Hotter summers resulting in increased drought intensities
Evaluate site for exposure
existing pest pressure, anything currently causing stress . . . .
corn for grain corn for silage
alfalfa hay
Consider infrastructure & equipment:
Evaluate Socioeconomic considerations:
• Cropping Infrastructure • Cropping Equipment • Type of Technology • Business Approach
Cropland:
• Tile Drainage • Access roads • Ditches, Diversions• Terraces, Waterways• No Till Planter • Chemical Sprayer• Disc harrow • Broadcast seeder • Non-GMO Seed Varieties • Dairy Cooperative
Climate change impacts both the enterprise and agroecosystem
We are all connected . . .
What is the place and farm’s ability to handle the impacts?
Analysis
A. High Vulnerability (Weakness)B. Med C. High Opportunity (Strength)D. Med E. High F. HighG. Med H. NAI. Med
Potential Impacts to Cropland:
A. may increase soil erosion and polluted runoff, flash flooding of streams
B. may damage perennial forages, winter annual crops
C. may increase plant growth D. may damage to perennial
forages, summer annual crops E. may slow crop growthF. may increase crop growth G. may harm crops and cause a
decline in plant health & productivity
H. NA to crops I. may deplete soil moisture and
further stress crops
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5Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerability
What are the challenges or opportunities presented by the impacts?
Are current management goals feasible? Are there other considerations?
What are the desired outcomes? Do goals need to change?
Challenges or opportunities?
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5Are goals feasible? Are there other
considerations?
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5Considering climate change impacts, what is the desired outcome now?
Considering the increased risk of loss of soil and nutrients and off-farm impacts – are there new desired outcomes on the farm?
• The soil needs to function better!• The water needs to be buffered from extremes!• Plant stress needs to be reduced!• Etc . . .
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5 Do goals need to change? Or can current management persist in face of impacts?
Step 3: One conclusion:
This dairy wants to continue to cope with impacts during the next 10 years. Reassess then for the long term.
Decision is to develop actions needed to continue growing annual forages for feeding its current dairy herd size.
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5 Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation actions
What actions can help meet management goals and
objectives under projected climate scenarios?
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5Identify adaptation management strategies for persistence or change
Manage for Persistence:Strategy 1: Sustain fundamental functions of soil and water.
Strategy 2: Reduce the impact of non-climate stressors.
Strategy 3: Reduce risks from warmer and drier conditions.
Strategy 4: Reduce the risk and long-term impacts of extreme weather.
Strategy 5: Manage farms and fields as part of a larger landscape.
When persistence fails, Manage for Change:Strategy 6: Alter management to accommodate expected future conditions.
Strategy 7: Alter agricultural systems or lands to new climate conditions.
Strategy 8: Alter infrastructure to match new and expected conditions.
Follow corn silage harvest with planting cereal rye
Manage for PersistenceSustain fundamental soil and
water functions
Maintain & improve soil health
Double crop forages
Climate Informed Decisions on this Dairy:
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5Develop adaptation strategies and tactics for responding to climate change impacts . . .
Persistence Strategies (from menu) Tactics (to be adjusted by producer)
Conservation practices provide many co-benefits under any climate scenario . . . .
How will we know if the implemented actions were effective?
What lessons can we learn from these actions to inform future management?
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5 Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Monitoring Item Criteria for EvaluationMonitoring
ImplementationCrop productivity (bushels/acre/year)
Similar or better yields over the 10-year period
Continue record-keeping
Runoff after heavy storms: degree of erosion after a 4-inch
Times of year erosion/runoff observed in a particular place
Gully formation and trends over the 10 year period
Edge of field water sampling?
Start to record these observations too!
MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness
Integrate climate change considerations into existing monitoring items & methods
Many tools under development!GHG Mitigation and
Energy Efficiency Opportunities?
Evaluating Adaptation Actions?
