adaptation and resilience in developing countries: … 4_laura_kuhl.pdf · laura kuhl, phd school...
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ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: POLICY CHALLENGES
Laura Kuhl, PhD
School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs and International Affairs Program, Northeastern University
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THE NEED FOR ADAPTATION POLICY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
¢ Climate impacts already being felt and will worsen¢ Climate change could push more than 100 million people back into poverty by 2030
without adaptation efforts ¢ Largest impacts in developing countries with least capacity to respond
Fawcett et al. 2015
Hallegate et al. 2016
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POLICY CHALLENGES AND QUESTIONS
Lack of data: How does policy get made in data-scarce contexts? What does the adaptation policy process actually look like?
Lack of funding: How do we allocate scarce global resources to adaptation? Do funding incentives prioritize certain adaptation approaches and leave out others?
Ethics of adaptation: Who gets to define adaptation and resilience? Who gets left out?
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CHALLENGE 1:LACK OF DATA
Examples from Ethiopia andHonduras
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Identification of
Hazards/Risks
Vulnerability Assessment
Comparison of Policy Options
Design of Climate Policy
Assumed Process: Technical and Logical
¢ Priorities driven by narratives, not simply scientific fact¢ Policy options determined by previous experience, path dependency, and political
constraints
Real Process:
POLICY DESIGN PROCESS
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EXTREME EVENTS SHAPE ADAPTATION POLICY
ETHIOPIA HONDURAS
Climate change narratives and adaptation policies
Current crises
National crisis that created a traumatic experience
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TRAUMATIC HISTORICAL EVENTS AS FOCUSING EVENTS
¢ Focusing events well-known to drive policy¢ Historical events can play a similar role in shaping narratives
1998 HURRICANE MITCH INHONDURAS
1984 DROUGHT/FAMINE IN ETHIOPIA
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HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE DRIVES INNOVATION
ETHIOPIA: productive safety net programme
HONDURAS: extensive early warning system
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CHALLENGE 2: LACK OF FUNDING
Examples from MultilateralAdaptation Funds
Photo credit: UNDP
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COSTS OF ADAPTATION
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GLOBAL ADAPTATION FINANCE
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Source: Bird et al. 2017, Climate Funds Update
Multilateral Climate Funds Supporting Adaptation (2003-2017)
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ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT: A CONTINUUM
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Adapted from McGray et al. 2007
Addressing Drivers of
Vulnerability
¢ Is adaptation fundamentally different from “good” development?¢ Where along the continuum should we draw the line for eligibility for adaptation
finance?
Building Response Capacity
Managing Climate Risks
Confronting Climate Change
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ADDITIONALITY ARGUMENTS
Mainstreaming: Increasing the capacity of government to plan for climate change or incorporate climate change into policies and plans
Climate-proofing: Incorporating adaptation into existing projects
Demonstration/Piloting: Implementing concrete adaptation measures with a goal of demonstrating their effectiveness
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ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT: GENERIC AND SPECIFIC CAPACITY
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“safe development paradox” sustainable adaptation
poverty trap “safety first”
high
high
low
lowSpecific Capacity: Risk Management
Gen
eric
Cap
acit
y
Adapted from Eakin et al. 2014
¢ Generic Capacities: address deficiencies in basic human development needs¢ Specific Capacities: address the tools and skills needed to anticipate and
effectively respond to specific (climatic) threats
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CASES AROUND THE WORLD
Number of projects
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ADAPTATION OPTIONS
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Adapted from Biagini et al. 2014
¢ Wide range of approaches to adaptation¢ Some approaches are more abstract (policy and planning, capacity-building), others more
concrete (infrastructure, ecosystem-based)
Adaptation Approaches
Adoption of Practice,
Technology or Behavior
Capacity Building
Ecosystem Based
Financing
Infrastructure
Policy and Planning
Warning or Observing
System
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APPROACHES ACROSS PROJECTS
Adoption of practices,
technology
Warning/ observing systems
FinancingPolicy & planning
Capacity-building
InfrastructureEcosystem-based
adaptation
Num
ber
of P
roje
cts
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CHALLENGE 3: ETHICS OF
ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE
Examples from Puerto Rico
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RESILIENCE
Adapted from Béné et al. 2016
CopingCapacity
(persistence)
Resilience CapacitiesR
espo
nse
Intensity of shock or stress
change
AdaptiveCapacity
(incremental adjustment)
stability
TransformativeCapacity
(transformationalresponses)
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COMMUNITY SOLIDARITY: WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR RESILIENCE?
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CONCLUSIONS
We need to better utilize climate narratives to encourage innovation and avoid path dependency
We need to ensure that climate finance is used effectively without biases against certain approaches
We need to recognize that resilience is not always desirable and resilience initiatives can reinforce existing power dynamics