29-06-10

Challenge the future

DelftUniversity ofTechnology

Actor (and network) modelsEPA2142 Policy and Decision Models – Research Seminar

Leon Hermans

The original lecture slides by Leon Hermans have been adapted for OpenCourseWare publication.

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This research seminar

1. What are actor models and why are they important in this course?2. What types of models are there?3. How do they relate to game theory?

An overview of models, but no specific examples; these will follow later in the course…

Introduction to Actor Models

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Actors matter on all levels: from local to international

• Example: climate change negotiations in Bali, 2007: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnG4S7b4PW8

Photo published online by Oxfam International under cc-by-2.0 license.

Photo published online by Malte at da.wikipedia.org under cc-by-2.0 license. Photo by Lauri Myllyvirta, published online under cc-by-2.0 license.

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Actors are central

EPA1121:• Actors are often groups and organizations, but also (important)

individuals can be considered as actors• In fact, actors are often multi-layered, nested entities (‘composed

actors’)• Actors:

• Have a certain interest in the system, and/or• Have some ability to influence that system

• Network:• more or less stable patterns of social relations between actors• Networks take shape around policy problems or programmes

But what are they?

How does this compare to the terminology used in game theory?

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What are actor models?

“Models that help to explain the role and position of actors in policy- or decision-making”

This is a quite broad answer – looking at the assumptions that underlie actor models will give a better understanding of what actor models are

Are game theory models also actor models?

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Assumptions behind actor models

• Behaviour of actors in policy processes is mainly rational / strategic • As opposed to mainly intuitive, emotional or impulsive

• Rational behaviour is influenced by:• Objectives, interests and underlying values• Perceptions (‘how the world operates’)• Resources, means and instruments to further their interests

(e.g. formal authority, money, expertise, etc.)

1. Rationality

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Assumptions behind actor models

• Policy actors typically operate in policy networks or arenas in which multiple actors are present• Hence: ‘Multi-actor systems’

• Actor behaviour in networks is influenced by:• Network structure

• and the position of the actor therein(many/few actors, hierarchical structure or not, centrality of actors, density of networks,…)

• Rules in the network (formal and informal)

• Note: actors influence networks and vice versa!

2. Network context

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Actor

resources

objectives

perceptions

Actor

resources

objectives

perceptions

Actor

resources

objectives

perceptions

Actor

resources

objectives

perceptions

Actor

resources

objectives

perceptions

Actor

resources

objectives

perceptions

Policy arenaRules

System domain for policiesExternal forces Outcomes of interest

Unilateral action

Unilateral action Unilateral actionPolicies

(actions by actors , decided

collectively )

(arrows in arena depict actions by

actors )

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Overview of actor analysis methods

• Three general approaches:• Theoretical approach• Pragmatic approach

• (most reported approach - stakeholder analysis)

• In-between: Model-based approach

Theory guides analysis• Policy Network Theory• Advocacy Coalition Framework• Stream Model• Institutional Analysis and

Development Framework• ...

Pragmatic approach• Stakeholder analysis• Quick-and-dirty• Checklists• Easy to use and adapt to

situational needs...

Models as basis

EPA1121EPA2142

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• Translation of theoretical insights into more operational models

• Theoretical basis improves transparency and focus and reduces analyst’s bias

• Operationalization in models provides (some) practical guidance

• Analytical rigor comes at the expense of broadness and room for “pragmatic freedom”

• More time consuming than ‘quick-and-dirty’• Focus depends on the selected method

Model-based approach: Actor Models

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Examples of model-based approaches

Purpose Modeling Approaches Conceptual Focus

Argumentative & narrative analysis, Q-method Perceptions and values Supporting problem formulation

Cognitive maps, dynamic actor network analysis Perceptions and values

Stochastic agents, social network models Rules and networks

Consumer choice, conjoint analysis Values

Agent-based models Resources and values

Modeling System Actors

Game theory and general equilibrium models Resources and values

Game theory and conflict models Resources and values

Transactional and exchange models Resources and values

Supporting process management

Stakeholder analysis Often: Resources and values

Gaming Gaming and simulation for learning, research and intervention

Various, depending on game design and game models

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Comparing actor models

• Focus • resources, network, perceptions, values• see previous slides and literature (e.g. EPA1121 reader)

• Analytic quality• Scope • Specificity• Logical interconnectedness

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Diagram from L. M. Hermans, W. A. H. Thissen / European Journal of Operational Reseach 196 (2009) 808-818.

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Is ‘highest analytic quality’ always best for actor models?

What are the advantages and disadvantages?

What models have the ‘highest analytic quality’ in this figure?

Diagram from L. M. Hermans, W. A. H. Thissen / European Journal of Operational Reseach 196 (2009) 808-818.

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Game theory and actor modelsTranslating the concepts

These game theory concepts… …can be considered a specific type of these actor modeling concepts

Players Actors

Strategies Resources

Outcome ??

Payoffs Values

What about aspects related to ‘Perceptions’ and ‘Networks’ in game theory?

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So now you know…

• … What actor models are• … How they can be classified, and• … How game theory fits in this broader context of actor

models