activity survey 2016 19 feb flipping book ... - oil & gas...

ACTIVITY SURVEY 2016O

IL & GAS UK

ACTIVITY SURVEY 2016

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C ont ent s

1 . F or ew or d 52. S u m m a r y of F ind ing s 73. O il a nd G a s M a r k et s 1 14 . 20 1 5 P er f or m a nc e 1 75. B u s ines s O u t look 25

5.1 R eserv es 25ti

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6. A p p end ic es 55

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AC T I V I T Y SUR V EY 2016


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1 . F or ew or d

2016 Activity Survey

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2. S u m m a r y of F ind ing s 1

• Production on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) rose by 9.7 per cent in 2015 to 1.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). ti 2

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• Despite the improvement in production, revenues fell by 30 per cent between 2014 and 2015 to £18.1 billion.

ti The sustained downward trend combined with the latest outlook reinforces that the oil price is likely to be ‘lower for longer’.

• Industry has made substantial progress in reducing costs and improving efficiency. ti

• Despite significant cost reductions, nearly half of the UKCS oil fields (43 per cent) are likely to be operating a t a los s in 20 1 6 a t p r ev a iling p r ic es . ti

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• Oil and gas companies are cutting almost all their discretionary expenditure to survive in a $30 world.titi ti ti

• There are increasing signs that the UKCS is becoming ‘super mature’.

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• To transform the basin, the UKCS needs to become the most attractive, mature, oil and gas province in the world with which to do business.

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R eserv es

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3. O il a nd G a s M a r k et s

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Figure 1: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Re-converged in 2015

0

20

40

60

8 0

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Nom

inal

Pric

e ($

/boe

)

Dated Brent

N BP Month Ah ead

Source: Argus Media, I C I S Heren

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2

4

5

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Figure 2: US Dollar to UK Sterling Spot Exchange Rate

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.8 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US

Dolla

r to

UK

Ster

ling

Exch

ange

Rat

e

Source: Bank of England

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Figure 3: Brent Futures Curves Reflect Shift in Price Expectations

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20

40

60

8 0

100

120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bren

t Fut

ures

($/b

bl)

End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 Feb 2016

Source: I ntercontinental Exch ange

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Figure 4: NBP Day Ahead and Front Winter Prices

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8 0

9 0

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gas P

rice

(p/t

h)

Day Ah ead

Front W inter

Source: I C I S Heren

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Figure 5: Regional Hub Gas and Spot LNG Prices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gas P

rice

($/M

illio

n BT

U)

N BP Month Ah ead

Henry Hub Front Month

Far East Spot L N G DES

Source: I C I S Heren, N Y MEX

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Figure 6: EU ETS Carbon Prices

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EUA

Spot

Pric

e (€

/te

CO2e

)

Source: I C I S Heren, I ntercontinental Exch ange

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4 . 20 1 5 P er f or m a nc e

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Industry Behaviours Charter4

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4 Industry Behaviours Charter

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Figure 7: Industry Key Metrics Scorecard for 2015

20 1 4 A c t u a l 20 1 5 F or ec a s t 20 1 5 A c t u a lProduction (million boepd) 1.64Operating Costs (£ billion)Unit Operating Costs ($/boe)Unit Operating Costs (£/boe)Capital Investment (£ billion) 11.6Exploration Wells Spudded 14Appraisal Wells Spudded < 5

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Figure 8: Production Change from 2014 to 2015

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Prod

uctio

n (M

illio

n bo

e)

54 5

2014 P roduction

- 22

Existing Field

Decrease

28

2014 Start-Ups

2015Start-Ups

Source: Oil & Gas UK

598

2015 P roduction

4 3

2014-2015R estarts

5

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Figure 9: Average Annual Production Decline from Existing Assets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008 -2009 2009 -2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Prod

uctio

n De

clin

e fr

om E

xist

ing

Asse

ts


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Figure 10: Unit Operating Cost by Company in 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8 0

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O UK C S AV ER AGE P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF

Uni

t Ope

ratin

g Co

st ($

/boe

)

Each b ar represents a company on th e UKC S (eq uity b asis)

UKC S Av erage

Source: W ood Mack enz ie

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Figure 11: Capital Investment by Activity Type

C apital I nv ested in P roj ectsSanctioned prior to 2015

C apital I nv ested in P roj ectsSanctioned w ith in 2015

C apital I nv ested in Existing Assets

C apital I nv ested in P re-SanctionP roj ects

£ 4 .6 billion £ 6.1 billion

£ 0 .5 billion

£ 0 .4 billion


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Figure 12: Exploration Wells Spudded in 2015

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5. B u s ines s O u t look

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5.1 R eserv es

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Figure 13: Build-Up of the Reserves Base

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Sanctioned @ 1.1. 15 P roduced 2 015 201 5 P roj ect Sanction/ increase in reserv es Sanctioned @ 1.1. 16 P ro b ab le N ew P 5 0 P ossib le N ew

Rese

rves

(Bill

ion

boe)

2015 2016

Sanctioned at

01.01.2015

Sanctioned at

01.01.2016

> P 50-0.6

P roduction

0.51I ncremental

0.8 3N ew

1.13N ew

0.12I ncremental

0.55

P roj ects sanctioned

ov er 2015 and th e increase in

reserv es in existing assets

th rough b row nf ield inv estment

6.28 billion boe

7 .61 billion boe

P rob ab leR eserv es

P ossib le R eserv es

6.33 billion boe


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4

5

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2015 Activity Survey ti ti

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Figure 14: Changes in Unsanctioned Reserves

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

P ossib le and P ro b ab le 2 015 Dif f erence in R ese rv es f rom Exisiting P ossib le and P rob ab le P ro j ects Decrease in R ese rv es f rom L oss of P ossib le and P ro b ab le P ro j ects I ncrease in R eserv e s f rom N e w P oss ib le and P rob ab le P roj ects P ossib le and P ro b ab le 2 016

Rese

rves

(Bill

ion

boe)

2015 2016Source: Oil & Gas UK

P ossib le and

P rob ab le at

01.01.2015 P ossib le and

P rob ab le at

01.01.2016

L oss of P roj ects

-1.48

0.45

N ew P roj ects

N et C h ange in R eserv es f rom

Existing P roj ects

-0.073.69 billion

boe

2.59 billion boe

Figure 15: Price Sensitivity of Reserves Removed From Company Plans Over the Last 12 Months

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

$ 100/ b b l and 60 p/ th $ 8 0/ b b l and 48 p/ th $ 60/ b b l and 36 p/ th $ 40/ b b l and 24 p/ th

Perc

enta

ge o

f Rem

oved

Res

erve

s P otentially C ommercially V iab le


1

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Figure 16: Reserves by Probability of Proceeding

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

J an 05 J an 06 J an 07 J an 08 J an 09 J an 10 J an 11 J an 12 J an 13 J an 14 J an 15 J an 16

Tota

l Res

erve

s in

Com

pany

Pla

ns (B

illio

n bo

e)

Sanctioned

P rob ab le

P ossib le


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Figure 17: Reserves and Resource Potential by Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

W of S N N S C N S SN S, I rish Sea,W est of Scotland

Rese

rves

/Res

ourc

es (B

illio

n bo

e)

Y et T o Find R esources

P otential Additional R esources

P ossib le R eserv es

P rob ab le R eserv es

Ongoing I nv estments

I n P roduction 01.01.2016

Source: Oil & Gas UK, OGA

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Figure 18: Exploration Well Count and Forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f Wel

ls Dr

illed

incl

udin

g Si

detr

acks

Exploration Sidetrack s

Exploration W ells


W ells

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Figure 19: Appraisal Well Count and Forecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8 0

9 0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

ber o

f Wel

ls Dr

illed

incl

udin

g Si

detr

acks Appraisal Sidetrack s

Appraisal W ells


1

2

4

5

6

W ells


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Figure 20: Exploration and Appraisal Drilling by Region

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

8 0%

9 0%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Prop

ortio

n of

Wel

ls Dr

illed

incl

udin

g Si

detr

acks

N N S C N S SN S W of S I rish SeaSource: Oil & Gas UK, OGA

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Figure 21: Recoverable Reserves Discovered

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tota

l Rec

over

able

Vol

umes

Disc

over

ed (M

illio

n bo

e)

Source: Oil & Gas UK, OGA, W ood Mack enz ie

Figure 22: Volumes Discovered per Exploration Well

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Volu

mes

Disc

over

ed p

er E

xplo

ratio

n W

ell (

Mill

ion

boe)

Source: Oil & Gas UK, OGA, W ood Mack enz ie

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Figure 23: Average Cost per Exploration Well Drilled

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Aver

age

Cost

per

Exp

lora

tion

Wel

l (£

Mill

ion

-201

5


Mon

ey)

14 ti

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4

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Figure 24: Development Well Count

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

19 9 5 2000 2005 2010 2015

Num

ber o

f Wel

ls Dr

illed

incl

udin

g Si

detr

acks

Source: OGA

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Figure 25: Number of Rigs on the UK Continental Shelf

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

J an-10 J ul-10 J an-11 J ul-11 J an-12 J ul-12 J an-13 J ul-13 J an-14 J ul-14 J an-15 J ul-15 J an-16

Num

ber o

f Rig

s

Semi-Sub mersib le R igs

J ack -Up R igs

Source: N orth Sea R eporter

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Figure 26: Daily Rig Rates Based on Reported Contract Awards for Mobile Drilling Units

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Rig

Rate

(Tho

usan

d $/

Day)

Semi-Sub mersib le R igs

J ack -Up R igs

Source: N orth Sea R eporter

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2

4

5

6


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Figure 27: Liquids and Gas Production

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prod

uctio

n (M

illio

n bo

epd)

L iq uids

Gas

Source: OGA, Oil & Gas UK

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Figure 28: Production Outlook

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Prod

uctio

n (M

illio

n bo

epd)

L ow C ase

High C ase

C entral C ase


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2

4

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Figure 29: Breakdown of the Central Production Forecast

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Prod

uctio

n (M

illio

n bo

epd)

P otential Unsanctioned N ew P roduction

P roduction From P otential N ew Brow nf ield I nv estment

P roduction From N ew Sanctioned Field Start ups (2016 onw ards)

N o Furth er I nv estment Base (Sanctioned) P roduction


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Figure 30: Average Production by Year per Field, with the Distribution of 2015 Fields

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8 0

19 8 5 19 9 0 19 9 5 2000 2005 2010 2015

Aver

age

Daily

Pro

duct

ion

per F

ield

(tho

usan

d bo

epd)

Source: Oil & Gas UK, W ood Mack enz ie

0

20

40

60

8 0

100

120

140

160

18 0

< 5, 000 5, 000 - 10, 000 10, 000 -20, 000

20, 000 -30, 000

30, 000 -40, 000

40, 000 -50, 000

> 50, 000

Num

ber o

f Fie

lds

Daily P roduction (b oepd)

1, 600

46, 00032, 00023, 000

14, 0007, 000

9 1, 000

Av erage Daily P roduction 2015

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Figure 31: Production Outlook by Region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Prod

uctio

n (M

illio

n bo

e pe

r yea

r)

W of S SN S, I rish Sea N N S C N S


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Figure 32: Total Expenditure on the UK Continental Shelf

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19 70 19 75 19 8 0 19 8 5 19 9 0 19 9 5 2000 2005 2010 2015

Tota

l Exp

endi

ture

(£ B

illio

n -2

015

Mon

ey)

Operating C osts

Dev elopment C osts

Exploration and Appraisal C osts

Decommissioning C osts


1

2

4

5

6


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Figure 33: Capital Investment Outlook

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Capi

tal I

nves

tmen

t (£

Billi

on -

2015

Mon

ey)

P otential Upside f rom P roj ects yet to b e Sanctioned

Sanctioned Only


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Figure 34: Capital Investment by Field in Year of Approval

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tota

l Cap

ital I

nves

tmen

t by

Fiel

d (£

Bill

ion

-201

5 M

oney

)

Y ear of Field Approv al Source: OGA, Oil & Gas UK

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Figure 35: Changes in Operating Costs (New versus Existing Fields)

R eduction f rom Existing Fields

C ontrib ution f rom N ew Fields

7.5

8 .0

8 .5

9 .0

9 .5

10.0

2014/ 15 2015/ 16


9 .7

8 .0

8 .2 8 .2

7.1

7.6

7.0

6.0

Tota

l Ope

ratin

g Co

sts (

£ Bi

llion

)1

2

4

5

6


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Figure 36: Total Operating Expenditure Outlook

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ope

ratin

g Co

st (£

Bill

ion

-201

5 M

oney

)


R ange

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Figure 37: Unit Operating Cost Outlook

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Uni

t Ope

ratin

g Co

sts (

$/bo

e -2

015

Mon

ey)


R ange

1

2

4

5

6


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Figure 38: Supply Chain Turnover

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Turn

over

by

Supp

ly C

hain

Sec

tor (

£ Bi

llion

)

Seismic

Drilling C ontractors

W ell Serv ices and C ommodities

Sub sea

Engineering, P rocurement, C onstruction and I nstallation

Maintenance and Operations

Source: R ystad Energy

Forecast

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Figure 39: Proportion of Oil Fields Operating at a Loss

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8 0

9 0

100

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 8 0% 9 0% 100%

Oil

Pric

e ($

/bbl

)

P ercentage of UKC S Oil Fields Operating at a L oss

2014 UKC S Oil Field UOC s

2015 UKC S Oil Field UOC s

2016 UKC S Oil Field UOC Forecast


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Figure 40: Revenues, Costs and Cash Flow on the UK Continental Shelf

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7019

7019

7119

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15

Cash

Flo

w (£

Bill

ion

-201

5 M

oney

)

Gross R ev enue

P ost-T ax C osts

P ost-T ax C ash Flow


Figure 41: Free Cash Flow Generation by Company in 2015

-1, 200

-1, 000

-8 00

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Com

pany

Cas

h Fl

ow ($

Mill

ion

-201

5 M

oney

)

Source: W ood Mack enz ie

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Figure 42: Pre-Tax Rate of Return

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19 9 7 19 9 9 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Net

Rat

e of

Ret

urn

(%)

Source: ON S

1

2

4

5

6


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Figure 43: Cumulative Number of Fields Ceasing Production

0

20

40

60

8 0

100

120

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Cum

ulat

ive

Num

ber o

f Fie

lds C

easin

g Pr

oduc

tion

2016 Activ ity Surv ey

2015 Activ ity Surv ey


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1

2

4

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Figure 44: Cumulative Number of Fields Ceasing Production by Region

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Cum

ulat

ive

Num

ber o

f Fie

lds C

easin

g Pr

oduc

tion

SN S, I rish Sea

C N S

N N S


Activity Survey 2015 ti

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Figure 45: Annual Decommissioning Spend

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Annu

al D

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ioni

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re

(£ B

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Mon

ey)

Historic Decommissioning Spend

Forecast Decommissioning Spend


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6. A p p end ic es

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Initiatives are grouped in three work streams:

Business Process

Standardisation

Cooperation, Culture and Behaviours

E�ciency task force – for a more e�cient industry

1

2

4

5

6


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ti Industry Behaviours Charter . ti

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Industry Behaviours Charter21

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Cross-Sector Efficiency Study ti ti titi ti

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2

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20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 20 1 6 F or ec a s tTotal Production

Oil/Liquids ~

G a s ~ ~

Total Expenditure ~Capital Expenditure ~

Operating Expenditure ~Exploration and Appraisal ~

D ec om m is s ioning ~Unit Technical Cost ~

Unit Development Cost 1 ~

Unit Operating Cost ~Unit Technical Cost ~

Unit Development Cost 1 ~

Unit Operating Cost ~Oil Price (avge) ~

Gas Price (avge – day-ahead) ~

Combined Oil and Gas Price ~

Direct N. Sea Tax Revenues (Fiscal Year)

2 ~ 2 ~ 2

Wells Drilled incl. incl. incl. incl.

ti 15 15 14 ~ ~

14 ~ ~

126 ~ ~

T ot a l 1 64 1 0 2 158 1 0 3 1 55 94

N ew F ield A p p r ov a ls 5 ~

I nc r em ent a l P r oj ec t s 26 ~

New Field Start-ups ~

Exploration Volumes D is c ov er ed ~ ~

1

2 Autumn Statement 2015NB - All expenditures and costs are quoted in money of the day

List of new field development plan approvals by year


page 60

www.oilandgasuk.co.uk

ISBN1903004708©2016TheUKOilandGasIndustryAssociationLimited,tradingasOil&GasUK

Oil & Gas UK (Aberdeen)3rdFloorTheExchange262MarketStreetAberdeenAB115PJ

Tel:01224577250

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Tel:02078022400 [email protected]

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GAS UKACTIVITY SURVEY 2016

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