active vs. passive strategies using etfs

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Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs C. Michael Carty Principal & CIO New Millennium Advisors, LLC July 20, 2010 QWAFAFEW/NYC Presentation Patrick Conway’s New York, NY

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Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs. C. Michael Carty Principal & CIO New Millennium Advisors, LLC July 20, 2010 QWAFAFEW/NYC Presentation Patrick Conway’s New York, NY. Our Purpose. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

C. Michael CartyPrincipal & CIONew Millennium Advisors, LLC

July 20, 2010

QWAFAFEW/NYC PresentationPatrick Conway’sNew York, NY

Page 2: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Our Purpose

To review the pros and cons of using active vs. passive strategies using ETFs and their tax consequences.

New Millennium Advisors

Page 3: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Is Buy and Hold Dead?

Indexing works for investors as a group Individuals have unique characteristics Examples of characteristics changing Identify the instruments of change Passively active or actively passive? Are indexes purely passive?

New Millennium Advisors

Page 4: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

As a Group Investors Can Buy & Hold

Individual stocks, bonds and cash Actively managed portfolios (stocks, bonds &

cash) Mutual funds (stocks, bonds & cash) Passive funds (ETFs, ETNs, & ETCs)

New Millennium Advisors

Page 5: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Individuals Have Unique Characteristics Risk preferences Financial goals Personal circumstances Asset endowments Time horizons

New Millennium Advisors

Page 6: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Can You Pick Your Time Horizon?

New Millennium Advisors

Source: Standard & Poor’s

Standard & Poor's 500 IndexFrom December 1976 to June 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

Page 7: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Characteristics Change with Time Sell at the bottom & buy at the top Beat the market & absolute returns Marriage/divorce and disabilities Lotto, housing bubble/bust, & jobs Life, retirement & death

New Millennium Advisors

Page 8: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Instruments of Change

Economic cycles Inflation Government polices Fed monetary policy Regulatory environment Environmental factors

New Millennium Advisors

Page 9: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Passively Active or Actively Passive?

Passive until change requires action (changes in strategic allocations)

Actively using passive funds (tactical changes in strategic allocations)

New Millennium Advisors

Page 10: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Are Passive Indexes Truly Passive? Changing market definitions Percent of market capitalization Market cap or float-weighted Market segmentation vs. diversification

New Millennium Advisors

Page 11: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Global Industry Classification Standard Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Financials Information Technology Telecom Services Utilities

New Millennium Advisors

Page 12: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Some Actively Passive ETP Pairs Possibilities

Large cap growth (IWF) vs. value (IWD) ETFs Large cap (IWB) vs. small cap (IWM) ETFs Domestic (IVV) vs. Foreign (EAF) ETFs Developed (EAF) vs. emerging markets (EEM) Two Chinas: FTSE (FXI) vs. Halter (PGJ) Gold (GLD) vs. Silver (SLV)

New Millennium Advisors

Page 13: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Actively Managing Growth & Value

Strategy: Invest in the index that outperformed in the trailing two months

Indexes: Russell 1000 Growth & Value Range: January 1988 to June 2010

New Millennium Advisors

Page 14: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Active Growth/Value Strategy

New Millennium Advisors

Sources: New Millennium Advisors and Standard & Poor’s

Growth/Value Strategy vs. the Russell 1000 Growth and Value Indexes

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

Feb-88 Feb-90 Feb-92 Feb-94 Feb-96 Feb-98 Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10

Ind

ex V

alu

es (

1/31

/88=

1.00

)

Strategy R 1000 Gr R 1000 Va

Page 15: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Comparative Risk/Return Performance

New Millennium Advisors

Strategy R 1000 Gr R 1000 Va

Reward/Risk 0.77 0.46 0.72

Return 11.78% 7.97% 9.14%

Std. Dev. 15.21% 17.17% 12.69%

Source: New Millennium Advisors

Page 16: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Peak to Trough Drawdown Performance

New Millennium Advisors

Source: New Millennium Advisors

        Duration Maximum

Date Peak Date Trough Months Drawdown

Strategy 10/31/07 17.059 2/27/09 7.335 16 -57.00%

R 1000 Gr 11/30/07 10.464 2/27/09 3.850 15 -63.21%

R 1000 Va 6/30/07 7.130 3/31/09 4.762 21 -33.21%

Page 17: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Holding Period Frequency

New Millennium Advisors

Source: New Millennium Advisors

Monthly Holding Period Frequency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Number of Months

Ho

ldin

g P

erio

d F

req

uen

cy

Page 18: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

How Should Tax Issues Be Managed?

Distinguish between qualified and non-qualified accounts

Consider the tax implications for long- and short-term investors, and equity and fixed income holdings

New Millennium Advisors

Page 19: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Qualified and Non-Qualified Accounts

Non-qualified accounts can defer long-term capital gains indefinitely and withdraw funds at long-term capital gains rates

Retirement accounts defer taxes but are taxed at the ordinary income rate when funds are withdrawn

New Millennium Advisors

Page 20: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Long-Term Investors Who Rarely Trade

Equity ETFs should be held in non-qualified accounts to get a favorable tax treatment

Fixed income investments should be held in tax-deferred accounts so income can compound tax free

New Millennium Advisors

Page 21: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Summary and Conclusions Buy & hold strategies relates to the entire market and only

investors in the aggregate can hold it indefinitely. An individual’s buy & hold choices are limited by their risk

preferences, financial goals, personal circumstances, assets and their forms, and time horizons.

These characteristics change over time, so their strategic allocation must be actively managed.

As events cause changes, it is prudent and reasonable to adapt to them rather than be victimized by them.

Managing tax consequences is simplified using tax efficient ETPs in non-qualified accounts as surrogates for qualified accounts.

New Millennium Advisors

Page 22: Active vs. Passive Strategies Using ETFs

Thank you!

C. Michael Carty

New Millennium Advisors, LLC

Two Rector Street, 15th Floor

New York, NY 10006

Tel. (917) 697-9464

Fax (212) 386-7590

[email protected]

New Millennium Advisors