Class DiscussionTuesday, October 2nd

According to the UN, world population is expected to grow to 9.2 billion by the year 2050. What challenges do you see if this prediction proves accurate?

After Today…

Students should be able to predict future population trends.

Students will discuss consequences / challenges based upon future population trends.

Students will fully comprehend the 4 phases of the Demographic Transition Model.

Top 10 Countries (Source USA Census Bureau)

China 1.3 Billion

India 1.2 B USA 313 Million Indonesia 246 M Brazil 203 M

Pakistan187 M

Bangladesh159 M

Nigeria155 M

Russia139 M

Japan126 M

Future??? (2050 according to Population Reference Bureau)

India 1.7 Billion

China 1.3 B USA 403 Million Nigeria 390 M Indonesia 293 M

Pakistan 275 M

Brazil 223 M

Bangladesh 194 M

Philippines 155 M

Democratic Republic of the Congo 149 M

Demographic Transition Model

Phase #1 – Pre Industrial High Birth Rates High Death Rates Slow Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) Usually associated with poor public

health measures like lack of sanitation.

AKA – Less Developed Countries, 3rd World Countries

Angola source CIA Factbook

Median Age – 18.1

Life expectancy at birth – 38.76

Total fertility Rate – 5.97 children / woman

Demographic Transition Model

Phase #2 – Transitional High Birth Rates Death Rates Fall (Higher Life

expectancies) Rapid Rise in the RNI Associated with improved economic

and social conditions

India

Median Age – 26.5 years

Life expectancy at birth – 67.14 years

Total Fertility Rate – 2.58 children per woman

Demographic Transition Model

Phase #3 – Transitional Birth Rates Begin to Fall rapidly Death Rates Fall slightly RNI begins to level off In an urbanized and industrial

society people begin to see the benefits of smaller families.

Demographic Transition Model

Phase #4 – Industrial Low Birth Rates Low Death Rates RNI is relatively flat or even in slight

decline Usually associated with highly

industrialized and highly urbanized countries.

Japan

Median Age – 44.8

Life expectancy at birth – 82.25

Total fertility Rate – 1.21 children / woman

Urbanization

Migration of people from rural areas to urban areas.

Growth of cities. Currently about 50% of the world’s

population lives in urban areas. This number is increasing at a rapid

rate throughout the entire world.

Taking the subway…

Everybody in the pool…

Overurbanization

When the urban population grows more quickly than support services such as housing, transportation, waste disposal and water supply

Fairly common in 3rd World Countries

Thomas Malthus

English economist, Malthus is best known for his hugely influential theories on population growth.

Believed that populations would eventually expand beyond their capability to feed themselves.

Population correction

Norman Borlaug

Founding Father of the Green Revolution.

Worked with Mexican scientist and farmers to increase wheat production.

His work has helped to prevent widespread starvation in many parts of the world.

Developed Countries

Also sometimes called “1st world countries”.

Characterized by high economic development and low Birth Rates

Core countries often found in the Northern Hemisphere

Developing Countries

Also sometimes called 3rd world countries.

Characterized by low economic development and high Birth Rates

Periphery countries often found in the Southern Hemisphere

Squatter Settlements

Illegal developments of makeshift housing on land neither owned nor rented by the inhabitants.

Fairly common in many LDC’s or 3rd World Countries

Favela Makeover

Many of the participants in Brazil’s world famous Carnival come from the Favelas.

Read the following article from TIME magazine: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2091817,00.html

After Today…

Students should be able to predict future population trends.

Students will discuss consequences / challenges based upon future population trends.

Students will fully comprehend the 4 phases of the Demographic Transition Model.