Executive Summary

Southern Hemisphere Space Studies Program 2020

ACCESS TOSPACE IN THE

SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE

IntroductionAccess to SpaceThe rationale for Team Project “Access to Space” is that currently, the space launch sector is primarily the domain of the Northern Hemisphere. However, this is beginning to change as Southern Hemisphere nations seek to pursue access to space in their own right under the new paradigm of NewSpace. This report considers a nation to be in the Southern Hemisphere if a significant part of its landmass is located South of the equator.

OBJECTIVE

MISSION STATEMENT

METHODOLOGY

The report establishes the emergence of NewSpace and explores the need for reliable, effective, and efficient access to space in the Southern Hemisphere through market analysis.

The report then proposes three scenarios offering potential ways that access to space may be achieved in the Southern Hemisphere. Each of these scenarios will be briefly analysed, as well as assessing the impact of such a scenario on Australia as the case study in the report.

The most promising scenario is selected for an in depth analysis.

The report finishes with concluding remarks and a list of recommendations and considerations for private and public policy makers.

To explore and assess the implementation of NewSpace access for the Southern Hemisphere by evaluating strategic, economic, political and environmental factors to inform government and commercial decision making.

The research for this report was done with multiple approaches. An extensive literature review was conducted by the different research teams. A total of 19 external industry and government experts were interviewed about ‘Access to Space’ either in person or via email communication. Based on this research, different scenarios for Access to Space were devised and assessed. A Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was conducted for each scenario. A SWOT analysis survey was sent out to a sample size of 120 of the ISU community associated with the SHSSP20 program. Finally, one scenario was chosen for a case study, and the assessment of this case study is included in the report.

1

Economic Development: NewSpace is fast growing. New Zealand added NZ$1.69 Billion to its economy in 2018-19 with 5,000 direct and 12,000 indirect jobs in space tech (Deloitte, 2020).

Environmental Monitoring and other Remote Sensing of agriculture or coastal regions or waste management has positive downstream effects.

International Relations: The space sector provides opportunities to develop international partnerships and collaborative agreements such as the recent Joint Letter of Intent signed between the Australian Space Agency and NASA in September 2019.

Increase Independence: Currently, states such as Australia source most of its satellite data by sharing agreements with other governments. Reliable access to space increases the independence of States on foreign or domestic commercial and State partners.

Increase Resilience: Reliable access to space ensures that a State can quickly redeploy space assets in the event of its spacecraft or other space capability being incapacitated for example by orbital debris.

Advantages to States

Need for Accessin the Southern Hemisphere

Advantages of the Southern Hemisphere

Reduced Time to Launch: Less airborne and maritime traffic. NewSpace is about reducing wait time for customers wanting to place satellites into orbit. Rocket

Lab and others have clearly stated their intent to go to scheduled monthly or even weekly launches.

Access to Polar Orbits: Safe launch paths over oceans instead of populated land mass.

A State has reliable access to satellite data for commercial and civil uses from partner countries with their own satellites.

A State has in-country capability to build or commission satellites for commercial and civil purposes such as remote sensing, communication, and asset tracking.

A State has in-country launch capability. Often this also means having access to in-country development of launch vehicles. Other countries partner with launch states for preferred access to launch capability.

Data

Satellite

Launch

2

The elementsof space access

In this scenario each nation in the Southern Hemisphere pursues access to space in relative isolation. Each State will either develop sovereign capability in each of the areas required for space access, or engage in international agreements for those capabilities that they decide they will not develop locally.

Independent National Pursuit of Space

AccessThe second scenario is where Southern Hemisphere States and private NewSpace companies form an entity to provide launch access, ground station communication services and other services required for space access. Invested states may then implement in national policy that all governmental, academic and industrial satellites must go through this company.

International Public-Private-Partnership

(IPPP)The final scenario considers the development of an international framework, facilitated by a treaty, to which States of the Southern Hemisphere may become a member. The framework would aim to facilitate equitable access to space for the member states, similar to how the Association of South Eastern Asian Nations (ASEAN) operates.

International collaborative State-

based framework

1 2 3Scenario Comparison

3

Market Survey

More than 50 launch vehicles are currently in development worldwide with hundreds of millions of USD funding of private capital invested. In Italy, Avio is developing the Vega light rocket for Smallsat payloads with the aim to launch in 2022 and is open to launching from the Southern Hemisphere. Korean launch vehicle developer Perigee is planning to launch from the Whalers Way Orbital Complex in South Australia in 2020, having raisedUS$12m funding. ABL Space System (USA) and Gilmour Space Technologies (AUS) both work on transportable launch systems that allow for more flexibility with regards to launch sites.

In the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand’s Rocket Lab has proven capability with 11 successful launches from their site on the Mahia Peninsula and is developing a second launchpad to increase capacity. Indonesia has announced intention to develop a site in Biak (Papua) for LEO launches. Australia is actively developing the Whalers Way Orbital Complex launch site in South Australia geared to polar launches and the Northern Territory Government is developing the Arnhem Space Centre for equatorial launches.

Forecasts in the number of Smallsats that will be launched between 2020 and 2030 vary from 2,864 Smallsats to 5,111 Smallsats (Bryce, 2020; Euroconsult, 2019).

The difference may result from taking into account large commercial satellite constellations that are planned to come online in the next few years or because of different assumptions on replenishment rates. Fast replenishment of Smallsats is a characteristic of NewSpace. CubeSats are so cost-effective, it is sensible to accept a shorter lifespan in orbit with an expectation that they will need replacing within two to three years or possibly earlier. Smallsats under 50kg are the main driver of the world satellite market

Case Study on Scenario 3 Australia

RESEARCHGovernment: The ASA could consider future funding

to be pledged specifically for Southern Hemisphere space relationships. Academia: Opportunities for expanding research projects between the network of countries in the International collaborative State-based framework. Industry: A NewSpace Start-up ecosystem will allow companies to leverage interconnections, strengthen networks and support technology transfer.

Make launch site facilities available at a pre-agreed cost clarified in the Southern

Hemisphere Association Convention, so as to extol the benefits of a partnership. Australia’s Space Act 2018 could be amended to cover association activities related to further space developmentExchange of legal expertise in the development of the convention draft and the overall establishment of the framework would need to be considered.

GEOPOLITICSUndertake and pursue further MoUs with friendly Southern Hemisphere

States. Partnership agreements/framework for launch vehicles and payload providing reliable access to equatorial or polar launch sites. The need for fuel transport agreements to avoid the increased risk for supply reliability and security.

INFRASTRUCTUREAustralian state and local governments could favorably consider local

infrastructure projects like regional airports, seaports, roads, hospitals, to complement remote launch site facilities. Integration, warehousing, clean rooms and testing facilities in close proximity of launch sites. Ground station sharing with domestic and international commercial and civil partners.

POLICY

4

ARG AUS BRA IDN KEN NZL ZAFGeographical Equ/Pol 2/4 3/4 4/1 4/0 4/0 1/4 0/4Weather risk (GCRI) 3 3 1 2 4 3 3

Launch Infrastructure 2 2 2 1 1 4 1Political Stability 3 4 2 2 1 4 2Safe Launch East X X X X X X X

Safe Launch South X X X X X X X

This table compares selected countries on geographical proximity for equatorial and polar launches. For example, Kenya scores high on equatorial but low on polar, and South Africa scores low on equatorial but high on polar.

All countries have what we deemed safe launch passage (approx. 500km) East or South.

New Zealand and Australia perform well, with no countries immediately East or South of them, relatively low GCRI and with either existing or planned launch infrastructure. As a benefit, both nations are able to provide equatorial and polar launches.

Comparison of Potential Launch StatesScenario Implementation

Political Stability Index: fragilestateindex.orgMeteorological data (Global Climate Risk Index): Germanwatch.org

Conclusion

Recommendations

Several opportunities to explore access to space are possible for nations in the Southern Hemisphere.

The implementation of an International State Based Framework can serve those countries who do not have launch facilities or launch vehicle development capability.

NewSpace principles play a significant role in the development of access to space.

From the case study it can be concluded that Australia has potential to develop launch capability and would be well suited as a launching state within the framework.

The project team acknowledges the limitations of the report analysis scope, however believes that all aspects of the mission statement have been addressed within the constraints of the project.

Based on the research conducted in this Team Project, the project team recommends the following:

Further studies on the implementation of an international collaborative State-based framework should be completed addressing the limitations set out in the previous section.

International engagements and treaty negotiations to facilitate such a collaborative framework should consider the liability and risk taken on by launch states.

Launch facilities built to service the NewSpace market should have easy access to NDT infrastructure to facilitate emerging reusable launch vehicles.

Nations seeking to develop their space access capabilities should ensure their industry, government and research sectors support a strong R&D environment.

In the event of implementing a similar international framework to the one discussed in the report, States with similar launch potential as Australia should consider taking on the role of a launch state.

5

Thank you!

PROGRAM SPONSORSAFT PressLockheed MartinNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationPortugal Space AgencySir Ross and Sir Keith Smith FundTaylors WinesTenth to the Ninth plus FoundationThe Aerospace CorporationThe Simeone Group

SPONSORED PLACEMENTSAustralian Space AgencyChina Aerospace Science and Technology CorporationChina Satellite Launch and Tracking Control GeneralCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationIndian Space Research OrganizationNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNova SystemsUnited Arab Emirates Space Agency

University of South Australia Mawson Lakes Boulevard

Mawson Lakes South Australia 5095

Ady.James@unisa.edu.au www.unisa.edu.au

International Space University Strasbourg Central Campus Illkirch-Graffenstaden France

1 rue Jean-Dominique Cassini 67400 publications@isunet.edu

www.isunet.edu

References can be found in the Full ReportElectronic copies of the Full Report and the Executive Summary at

www.isulibrary.isunet.edu

Ms Manal Al-Rasheed, University of Central FloridaMr Hugo André Costa, LSE Space GmbHMr Adrià Argemí Samsó, Pangea AerospaceDr Jacques Arnould, CNES - HeadquartersMr Sebastien Bessat, International Space University (ISU)Ms Philomena Bonis, Queensmount Senior Public SchoolAssoc Prof David Bruce, University of South Australia (UniSA)Prof John Connolly, NASA Johnson Space CenterMr David Cowdrey, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Paul Curnow, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Lloyd Damp, Southern LaunchDr Malcolm Davis, Australian Strategic Policy InstituteMr Michael Davis, Space Industry Association of AustraliaPresident Juan de Dalmau, International Space University (ISU)Prof Kerrie Dougherty, University of New South WalesProf Alan Duffy, Swinburne University of TechnologyProf Steven Freeland, University of Western SydneyMr Ryo Futamata, Nihon UniversityMr Alessandro Gabrielli, Avio S.p.A.Ms Michelle Gilmour, Gilmour Space TechnologiesDr Brett Gooden, University of South Australia (UniSA)Assoc Prof Alice Gorman, Flinders UniversityMr Thomas Goulding, Royal Melbourne Institute of TechnologyDr James Green, NASA HeadquartersMr Daniel Griffiths, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Rainer Horn, SpaceTec Partners GmbHMr Femi Ishola, Kyushu Institute of TechnologyAssoc Prof Ady James, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Mark Jessop, Amateur Radio Experimenters GroupMs Teneille Johnson, University of South Australia (UniSA)Ms Amanda Johnston, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Goktug Karacalioglu, International Space University (ISU)Dr Justin Karl, National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationMs Rei Kawashima, HEPTA-Sat

Ms Mina Konaka, Tohoku UniversityPrincipal Donna Lawler, Azimuth Advisory Pty LtdMr Eamon Lawson, University of South Australia (UniSA)Prof Gottfried Lechner, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Martin Lewicki, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Anderson Liew, HSBCMr Tony Lindsay, Lockheed MartinDr Charley Lineweaver, Australian National UniversityMr Darin Lovett, South Australian Space Industry CenterMr Gary Martin, International Space University (ISU)Ms Ruth McAvinia, ATG EuropeDr Katarina Miljkovic, Curtin UniversityDr Val Munsani, South African National Space AgencyDr Paolo Nespoli, NASA Johnson Space CenterDr David Neudegg, Bureau of MeteorologyDr Patrick Neumann, Neumann SpaceDr Kimberley Norris, University of TasmaniaDr Joseph O’Leary, Electro Optic Systems Pty LimitedProf Walter Peeters, International Space University (ISU)Ms Lindsey Pollock, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Scott Pollock, Southern Cross PyrotechnicsMr Andrea Preve, Avio S.p.A.Ms Anisha Rajmane, KIT College of EngineeringMs Alexandra Ryan, International Space University (ISU)Mr Scott Schneider, Leiden UniversityDr Jan Walter Schroeder, CisLunar IndustriesMr Tim Searle, New Zealand Space AgencyMr Michael Siddall, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Noel Siemon, International Space University (ISU)Dr Michael Simpson, Secure World FoundationProf Alan Smith, University College LondonProf Parwati Sofan, University of South Australia (UniSA)Dr Su-Yin Tan, University of WaterlooMr Robertus Triharjanto, Indonesian National Institute ofAeronautics and SpaceMr Scott Wallis, Equatorial Launch AustraliaMs Hannah Webber, University of South Australia (UniSA)Asst Prof Masahiko Yamazaki, Nihon UniversityMr Emil Zankov, University of South Australia (UniSA)Mr Taiga Zengo, Nihon UniversityMr Alexander Ziegele, DSTG

SCHOLARSHIP PROVIDERSAsia Pacific Satellite Communications CouncilEuropean Space AgencyItalian Space AgencySir Ross and Sir Keith Smith FundSouth Australian Space Industry Centre(Government of South Australia)

EVENT SPONSORSAmateur Radio Experimenters GroupCity of SalisburyCleland Wildlife Park (SA Department for Environment and Water)Space Industry Association of AustraliaVex Robotics

6

The “Access to Space” team would like to acknowledge the generous guidance, support and direction provided by:

Anu RajendranAnu Rajendran

Brianna GanlyBrianna Ganly

Joshua KahnJoshua Kahn

Rebekah HollidayRebekah Holliday

Samuel HobbsSamuel Hobbs

Steven DespotellisSteven Despotellis

Zvonko VidosZvonko Vidos

Ibnu RusydiIbnu Rusydi

Guy MarcusGuy Marcus

Andrea PerinAndrea Perin

Luca SantachiaraLuca Santachiara

Sasiluck ThammasitSasiluck Thammasit

Fatima AlShamsiFatima AlShamsi

PreetiPreeti

Sujith RajanSujith Rajan

Christian Thaler-WolskiChristian Thaler-Wolski

SHSS

P202

0

Southern Hemisphere Space Studies Program 2020

Sponsored by

Hongxing ZuoHongxing Zuo

Kaimin ZhouKaimin Zhou

Na ZhangNa Zhang

Qiwei GuoQiwei Guo

Shideng YangShideng Yang

Shiyin LyuShiyin Lyu

Si LiSi Li

Xiangyu (Sean) LiXiangyu (Sean) Li

Yiming ZhouYiming Zhou

Yonggang LuoYonggang Luo

TP Chair: Jan Walter SchroederTP Chair: Jan Walter Schroeder

TP Associate Chair: Scott SchneiderTP Associate Chair: Scott Schneider

Teaching Associate: Eamon LawsonTeaching Associate: Eamon Lawson

Teaching Associate: Mina KonakaTeaching Associate: Mina Konaka