Paleoflood hydrology: Origin, progress, prospects

Victor R. Baker ⁎Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721-001, USA

A B S T R A C TA R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:Accepted 24 April 2008Available online 24 May 2008

Keywords:FloodsGeochronologyPaleofloodsFlood-frequency analysisFluvial geomorphologyHydraulic modeling

From an origin in diverse studies of flood geomorphology and Quaternary geology, paleoflood hydrologyemerged as a geophysical and an applied hydrological science during the 1970s and 1980s. Since acquiring itsformal name in 1982, the most productive approach in paleoflood hydrology has become energy-basedinverse hydraulic modeling of discrete paleoflood events, recorded in appropriate settings as slackwaterdeposits and other paleostage indicators (SWD-PSI), or as various threshold indicators of non-exceedence.Technological advances, particularly in hydraulic modeling and geochronology, were instrumental in movingthe discipline to its present status. The most recent advances include (1) new techniques for the accurategeochronology of flood sediments, notably TAMS radiocarbon analyses and OSL dating, and (2) thephenomenal increase in computer power that allows complex hydraulic calculations to become feasible forroutine studies. From its initial demonstration in the southwestern United States, SWD-PSI paleofloodhydrology proved its widespread applicability to various landscape environments. Particularly importantstudies have been accomplished in Australia, China, India, Israel, South Africa, Spain, and Thailand. Paleofloodhydrology has also generated its share of controversy, in part because of the differing viewpoints andattitudes of the two scientific traditions from which it emerged: Quaternary geology/geomorphology versusapplied hydrologic/hydraulic engineering. Nevertheless, the future growth of the discipline is assured, giventhe rapid pace of discoveries that it engenders. Indeed, so many international studies exist that it isappropriate to pursue global syntheses to address interesting and timely questions of extreme floodphenomena in relation to global climatic change.

© 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Hydrology is the science dealing with continental waters, theiroccurrence, distribution and movements through the entire cycle ofprecipitation, evapotranspiration, atmospheric circulation, surface flow,and subsurface flow. Paleohydrology is the study of past occurrences,distributions, and movements of continental waters. It is an inter-disciplinary effort that links scientific hydrology to sciences concernedwith Earth historyand past environments. Paleohydrologyencompassesseveral subdisciplines, including paleofluminology — the study of pastriver and stream systems; paleolimnology— the study of conditions andprocesses of ancient lakes; paleohydroclimatology — the study ofhydrological aspects of past climates; paleohydraulics— the applicationof physical principles, many from engineering hydraulics, to calculatepast water flows and associated sediment transport; and paleohydro-geology — the study of past occurrences and movements of subsurfacewater. Though the field is conceptually broad, involving all elements ofthe hydrological cycle, the first use of the term paleohydrology was inregard to past hydrological conditions associatedwith the formation of asuite of river terraces in Wyoming (Leopold and Miller, 1954).

Paleofloods are past or ancient floods that occurred without beingrecorded by either (1) direct hydrological measurement during thecourse of operation (known as instrumental or “systematic” record-ing), or (2) observation and/or documentation by non-hydrologists.Type (2) recordings are historical floods. Conventional hydrologicalstreamflowmeasurements are possible because of the effects of waterstages on mechanical recording devices. These effects are subse-quently transformed by hydraulic theory to values of flow velocity anddischarge at controlled study sites (gaging stations). For historicalflood data, human observation is required, but the modern hydro-logical procedures employed at gaging stations do not apply.

The recordings of paleofloods are natural, not human, and thisdistinguishes them from instrumental/systematic and from historicalflood measurements. In contrast to direct human observation and/ormeasurement, the natural recordings of paleofloods occur via a varietyof indices (causal signs) that are interpreted by the experiencedpaleoflood hydrologist (Baker, 1998a). These indices include variouseffects on the landscape, sediments, or vegetation that persist forsome time following the causative action of the responsible flooding.There is a long tradition in hydrology in the measurement of sucheffects immediately following a major flood event at an ungaged site.These “indirect discharge” measurements are then added to thesystematic record.

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The field of paleoflood hydrology involves advances in Quaternarygeology and fluvial geomorphology that allow more ancient floods tobe analyzed in a similar manner to that done in the hydrologicaltradition of indirect dischargemeasurement. The Quaternary paleohy-drology of floods, however, involves many more techniques, includingregime-based studies of alluvial rivers and sediment transport studies(e.g. Costa, 1983). For alluvial rivers a large number of empiricalrelationships are available for calculating the flow characteristics ofancient rivers from the preserved morphology and sediments (e.g.,Schumm, 1968). Studies of sediment transport in rivers are conven-tionally divided into studies of competence and capacity, each ofwhichaffords opportunities for paleohydrology (Baker,1974a). Many of thesetechniques are finding increasing applications in archaeological,paleoclimatological, and paleoecological contexts.

Nevertheless, its most productive approach is probably that whichmost closely follows from conventional hydrological indirect dis-charge determination. This involves the energy-based inversehydraulic modeling of discrete paleofloods, recorded in appropriatesettings as slackwater deposits and other paleostage indicators,named by the acronym “SWD-PSI” by Baker (1987). The term“paleoflood hydrology” was specifically coined in regard to this typeof investigation (Kochel and Baker, 1982).

Slackwater deposits are coarse-grained sediments conveyed insuspension during highly energetic flood flows and deposited in areasof flow separation that result in long-term preservation after the floodrecession (Baker et al., 1983a). Layered sequences of slackwaterdeposits record individual floods, which are analyzed and interpretedusing geochronology, sedimentology, and Quaternary stratigraphy.The rivers appropriate for SWD-PSI paleoflood hydrology commonlyinclude bedrock canyons that convey sandy sediments. Slackwaterdeposits and other paleostage indicators are used to infer the pastflood stages. Closely related to this are various threshold indicators ofnon-exceedence which were developed for the U.S. Bureau ofReclamation (Levish, 2002). Hydraulic flow models are used tocalculate peak flood discharges, and field surveys of channelgeometries permit the association of paleostages with modeleddischarges in channels. In-depth reviews of methodologies can befound in review papers (Baker, 1983, 1987; Kochel and Baker, 1988;Pickup, 1989; Baker, 1989; Jarrett, 1991; Baker, 2000; Benito et al.,2004b) and books (Baker et al., 1988; House et al., 2002; Thorndycraftet al., 2003; Benito and Thorndycraft, 2004). This paper reviews therelevant history paleoflood hydrology and considers its futuredevelopment.

2. Origins (pre-1982)

2.1. Paleoflood geology

Costa (1987) and Patton (1987) review the origins of paleofloodhydrology, with particular reference to the United States, andgenerally from about 1800 to 1982. Of course, the geologicalinvestigations of ancient floods can be traced back to the very originsof the discipline. Prior to Charles Lyell's somewhat misguidedadvocacy of uniformitarianism in the middle 1800s (Baker, 1998b), itwas common for genetic hypothesizing in natural philosophy toinvoke cataclysmic flooding as a mechanism to explain such featuresas erratic boulders, widespread mantles of boulder clay (so-called“diluvium”), and wind- and water gaps through the ridges of foldmountain ranges (Huggett, 1989). For example, Hitchcock (1835)explained the sediments and landforms of the Connecticut Rivervalley as products of the Noachian deluge.

Cataclysmic flooding was generally not invoked for reasons ofscriptural literalism. Rather, it was genuinely perceived to provide areasonable explanation for the phenomena of interest. An example isDana's (1882) study of the high glacial terraces of the ConnecticutRiver. In addition to Hitchcock's debacle hypothesis, these had been

interpreted alternatively to be products of marine submergence or asthe result of deposition by proglacial outwash streams forming valleyfills that were later incised by postglacial river with less sediment load(Upham, 1877). Dana argued that the terraces resulted from a large-scale glacial flood, and he used heights to infer its high-water surface,averaging about 50 m above the present river profile (Fig. 1). From hisdata one can calculate a maximum paleodischarge for this “flood” of2.4×105 m3 s−1 (Patton, 1987).

The controversy over the Connecticut River terraces led toobservations that modern terrace-like landforms can be produced bythe deposition of coarse suspended sediment during extremelyenergetic river floods. Cornell University Professor R.S. Tarr (1892)reported that the Colorado River of central Texas is able to emplacesuch sediments during extreme floods, thereby building terraces bydeposition, much as Dana envisioned for the glacial floods on theConnecticut River. Tarr (1892) recognized that this was possiblebecause of the particularly intenseflood regime of central Texas. It nowseems clear that Tarr (1892) was describing slackwater flood deposi-tion, though he was using it in the context of understanding terraceorigins (Patton,1987). It is also relevant that a successor of Dana at YaleUniversity, Richard Foster Flint, realized from his studies of modernproglacial stream processes that the Connecticut terraces wereprobably not products of large-scale flooding. Instead, the attributeswere more consistent with a history of ice stagnation and latermodification by non-cataclysmic river action (Flint, 1933).

Themost important geological investigations of cataclysmicfloodingwere those of J Harlen Bretz in the Channeled Scabland region of thenorthwestern United States. In his various papers Bretz noted featuresthat marked the high levels reached by the floodwaters. These includedscarps cut into the loess-mantled uplands adjacent to the scablandchannels, high-level gravel-bar deposits of the floods, and dividecrossings where one scabland channel spilled over into another (Bretz,1923, 1928). Bretz (1929) studied the deposits emplaced by thecataclysmic flooding into the various tributaries to the east of theCheney-Palouse scabland tract (Fig. 2). Henoted (Bretz,1929, p. 394) thatthe deposits, “…are thickest and coarsest close to the entrance of thesevalleys into the scabland. They extend up the valley slopes as high as theloessial scarp bases along the adjacent scablands”. The descriptionsshow that hewas clearly studying slackwater deposits emplaced by theflooding. It is interesting to note that one of the principal alternativearguments against Bretz's hypothesis was offered by Flint (1938), whointerpreted Bretz's scabland megaflooding evidence as the products ofproglacial aggrading streams, much as his earlier work on theConnecticut had falsified the flood hypothesis of Dana. This time,however, Flintwaswrong, and Bretz had correctly inferred the evidencefor large-scale flooding (Baker, 1978).

2.2. Hydrology of paleofloods

Hydrologists and engineers developed an early interest in historicalfloods, mainly as a means of estimating the frequency of those rareevents that might pose a hazard to human works and activities. Ratherloosely, any flood occurring prior to the instrumental, or systematic,record was considered to be an historical flood. It was also recognizedthat geological evidence could be used (Fuller, 1917). An interestingexample of such studies is that of J.E. Stewart of the U.S. GeologicalSurvey, who traced the historical predecessors to the 1921 damagingfloods on the Skagit River, northern Washington state. His 1923unpublished report was incorporated into a later U.S. Geological SurveyWater-Supply Paper (Stewart and Bodhaine,1961). From the testimoniesof indigenous native people Stewart dated the two very large pre-whitesettlementfloods of 1815 and 1856. He also inferred the paleostages andpaleodischargesof thesefloods, “…byfindingsilt and stains in thebarkoftrees and sanddeposits inprotected areasalongthestream” (Stewart andBodhaine,1961, p. 4). The resulting data could thenbe incorporated into aflood-frequencyanalysis (Fig. 3). Though thiswas a historicalflood study,

2 V.R. Baker / Geomorphology 101 (2008) 1–13

the use of paleostage indicators followed exactly the procedures thatwould later be used in SWD-PSI investigations. Other studies of historicalfloods employed similar procedures to estimate the frequency of veryrare floods (Mansfield, 1938; Jahns, 1947). A parallel line of workconsidered the effects of past floods on riparian trees (Sigafoos, 1964;Harrison and Reid, 1967).

In the mid-1960s, as a hydrologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, theauthor first encountered that organization's procedures for the indirect

determination of flood hydraulic parameters (Benson and Dalrymple,1968). Subsequently in his Ph.D. research of the late 1960s the authoremployed stage-based estimates for determining the paleodischarge ofthe megaflooding responsible for the Channeled Scabland (Baker, 1973).Instead of using stranded vegetation, eroded wash lines, or silt plasteredon trees and rocks, however, Baker (1973) documented elevation of theeroded loess scarps earlier recognized by Bretz (1928), the highestdeposits of flood sediments, ice-rafted boulders, and high-level divide

Fig. 1. Portion of a map and profiles of the hypothesized glacial flood and modern bed for the Connecticut River in southern New England. From Dana (1882).

3V.R. Baker / Geomorphology 101 (2008) 1–13

Fig. 2.Map of valleys immediately east of the Channeled Scabland (stippled pattern in the upper left). All these valleys were backflooded with the deposition of slackwater deposits.From Bretz (1929, p. 395).

Fig. 3. Stewart and Bodhaine's (1961) flood-frequency analysis of the Skagit River at Newhalem, Washington. The two outliers (data points on the upper right of the diagram) are the1815 and 1856 historical floods with estimated peak discharges, respectively, of 115,000 cfs (3260 cms) and 95,000 cfs (2690 cms). These estimates were made in part by usingevidence from slackwater deposits and other paleostage indicators. Two outliers lie above the trend line defined by the instrumental gage record.

4 V.R. Baker / Geomorphology 101 (2008) 1–13

crossings. These high-watermarkswere thenplotted along profiles of thescabland channels in much the same way that Dana (1882) had plottedwhat he thought tobepaleofloodhigh-watermarks along theConnecticutRiver valley (Fig.1). These data, alongwith the paleochannel geometries,were then used to determine peak paleodischarges and other hydraulicparameters, using slope–area calculation procedures also developed forU.S. Geological Survey indirect discharge determinations (Dalrymple andBenson, 1968).

Upon receipt of the Ph.D. degree, the author was appointed to thefaculty of The University of Texas at Austin. There he was able to studyrivers subject to the same intense flood regime that Tarr (1892) hadearlier described as ideal for emplacing paleoflow evidence for slack-water deposits. Baker's faculty predecessor at Texas, J. Hoover Mackin,had been involved in a controversy over the role of extreme floodsversus average flood magnitudes in accounting for stream channelmorphology (see Wolman and Miller, 1960; Mackin, 1963). Mackinencouraged the study of the extreme flood regime in central Texas(Tinkler, 1971), but he died before he was able to extend this workhimself. Baker began the study of extreme floods and the geomorphicexpressions in central Texas with a 1973–74 project funded by the TexasBureau of Economic Geology (Baker, 1975, 1977). The first slackwaterdeposit sites were located in Pedernales Falls State Park. There, severaltributaries to the Pedernales River are deeply incised into the limestonebedrock where they join the bedrock valley. Thick sequences ofslackwater deposits are emplaced at these tributary mouths in muchthe same way that Bretz (1929) and Baker (1973) envisioned thebackflooding of tributaries to the Channeled Scabland flood pathways(Patton et al., 1979). Baker (1974b, p. 63) observed:

In central and west Texas major floods on trunk streams depositsuspended load in the eddies which develop at the mouths oflower order tributaries. The elevations of such slackwater depositsprovide minimum estimates of past flood stages.

Given the success of the preliminary applications of SWD-PSImethodologies in central Texas, the author in 1976 applied to the U.S.National Science Foundation (NSF) for a grant to further develop thistechnique as a means of estimating the risk of rare, high-magnitudeflood hazards. The proposal was rejectedwith the following criticisms.First, it was asserted that the dates of ancient floods could not possiblybe determined in any way to be sufficient for practical purposes.Second, it was claimed that the discharges of ancient floods obviouslycould not possibly be measured to a satisfactory standard of accuracy.Third, even if paleoflood data could be achieved, at that time noappropriate statistical procedure would allow use in making asatisfactory estimate of exceedence probabilities for extraordinaryfloods. Finally, it was asserted that past changes in climate and runoffcharacteristics ensured that paleoflood data would have no possiblerelevance to the understanding of modern hydrological conditions.

In view of later developments to be described below, the 1976criticisms of paleoflood hydrology are fascinating. Those develop-ments amply confirm the scientific attitude that it is the purpose ofresearch to resolve the types of issues raised in the 1976 review. It isnot the purpose of unresolved research questions to deny that scienceshould be done. In Section 3 of this paper, the 1976 criticisms areaddressed under the following headings (see also, Baker et al., 2002):(1) geochronology, (2) hydraulic modeling, (3) flood-frequencyanalysis, and (4) climate. A subsequent NSF proposal with a differentset of reviewers resulted in the 1978–1980 funded project “HolocenePaleohydrology of the Southwestern United States,” which was thefirst of many subsequent studies. The 1978–1980 NSF project extendedpaleoflood studies into western Texas (Kochel and others, 1981) andsouthern Utah (Patton and Baker,1981), leading directly to the namingof the discipline (Kochel and Baker, 1982).

Thus, SWD-PSI paleoflood hydrology was first extensively devel-oped for the rather intense flood regime of central Texas. This success

led directly to the posing of another, interesting science question.Could this new methodology be transferred to a different region, onewith very limited conventional flood data, but one also characterizedby intense flooding? The experimental response to this question wasachieved through a series of studies initiated in 1979–1980, when theauthor was a Fulbright-Hays Senior Research Scholar at The AustralianNational University. The results of this work (e.g., Baker et al., 1980,1983b, 1987a; Baker and Pickup, 1987) led to numerous laterinvestigations in various parts of Australia (Table 1).

3. Progress (1982–2007)

3.1. From name to discipline

In 1982 paleofloodhydrology formally received its name (Kochel andBaker, 1982). It was recognized that flood-risk analysis was not merely aproblem of applied statistics, but could also be one of applied geology(Greis, 1983). Moreover, it was found that paleoflood hydrology hadwide applicability throughout the United States (Table 2).

The author's move in 1981 from Texas to the University of Arizona ledto a series of 30 theses and dissertations that further explored thedevelopment and applications of paleoflood hydrology (list available fromthe author upon request). Various funded projects were initiated to study“PaleofloodHydrologyof the SouthwesternU.S.” (U.S. Dept. Interior,1982–86), “Paleoflood Hydrology of Arid and Savanna Regions” (NSF, 1983–84),“Hydraulics and Sediment Transport of Cataclysmic Flows (NSF,1988–90),and “AppliedPaleofloodHydrology” (NSF,1989–92). In1984–1988 theSaltRiver Valley Water Users' Association supported an extensive set ofpaleoflood investigations in support of safety issues for dams. By the timeof publication for the first book addressing paleoflood hydrology (Bakeret al., 1988) the level of activity was such that it could be organized as theArizona Laboratory for Paleohydrological and Hydroclimatological Analy-sis (ALPHA). In addition to the students many more senior paleofloodscientists and postdoctoral scholars worked with or trained at ALPHA,including the following (listed with their approximate years of residencyin Arizona): Avijit Gupta (1983), Ellen Wohl (1988–89), Vishwas Kale(1989–1990), Alex V. McCord (1990–1991), Gerardo Benito (1990–92),

Table 1Selected international examples of paleoflood hydrology studies

Country Region References

Australia Central Baker et al. (1983b, 1985, 1987a); Pickup et al. (1988); Pattonet al. (1993)

NorthCentral

Baker and Pickup (1987); Sandercock and Wyrwoll (2005)

Northeast Wohl (1992); Wohl et al. (1994c)Northwest Gillieson et al. (1991); Wohl et al. (1994a)Southeast Saynor and Erskine (1993); Erskine et al. (2002)

Bolivia Maas et al. (2001)Canada East Saint-Laurent et al. (2001)

Central St. George and Neilson (2003)West Gottesfeld (1996)

China Huang He Shih et al. (1985); Yang et al. (2000)Changjiang Zhu et al. (2005)

France Southeast Sheffer et al. (2003)Greece Northwest Lewin et al. (1991); Maas and Macklin (2002)India Central Ely et al. (1996); Kale et al. (1997, 2003)

Northwest Kale et al. (2000)Israel Southern Wohl et al. (1994b); Greenbaum et al. (2000, 2001)Japan Jones et al. (2001); Grossman (2001); Oguchi et al. (2001)Namibia Heine (2006)Peru Coastal Wells (1990); Magilligan and Goldstein (2001)SouthAfrica

Smith and Zawada (1990); Smith (1992); Zawada (1994, 1997,2000); Zawada and Hattingh (1994)

Spain Central Benito et al. (2003a,b)Northeast Thorndycraft et al. (2005a)

Thailand Kidson et al. (2005)UnitedKingdom

Brown et al. (2001); Macklin and Lewin (2003)

5V.R. Baker / Geomorphology 101 (2008) 1–13

Yehouda Enzel (1990–92), Lisa Ely (1992), Wang Yongxing (1992–1993),J. Steven Kite (1993), Takashi Oguchi (1996–97), Jack C. Schmidt (1998),Elzbieta Czyzowska (1998–99), Noam Greenbaum (2005), Mark Macklin(2006), and Petteri Alho (2007–2008).

3.2. Globalization

As an official delegate to the U.S.–China Bilateral Symposium onthe Analysis of Extraordinary Flood Events (Nanjing, China, October

14–18, 1985), the author learned that paleoflood slackwater studieswere being developed independently in China (e.g., Shih et al., 1985).The Chinese work was closely related to an extensive historical floodrecord that was being employed for the safety investigations of dams.Recent work includes Yang et al. (2000) and Zhu et al. (2005). A 1987visit to Arizona by S.N. Rajaguru, Deccan College, Pune, India, led to theinitiation of collaborative studies in that country. The Narmada River(Rajaguru et al., 1995) proved to be a particularly impressive recorderof paleoflood evidence (Ely et al., 1996; Kale et al., 1997, 2003). In 1988the author gave a talk on the potential for paleoflood hydrologystudies in southern Africa (Baker, 1988), which was followed bymultiple studies by local scientists (Table 1). In 1989–1992 a UnitedStates–Israel Binational Science Foundation Grant was obtained withthe collaboration of Asher P. Schick to study “Paleoflood Records in theSouthern Negev Desert”. This then led to several detailed studies ofthis region (Table 1), which is now perhaps the most intensivelystudied local area on the globe for paleoflood hydrology (Baker, 2006).Also noteworthy is the extensive growth of paleoflood hydrologystudies in Spain (Table 1) that followed from Gerardo Benito's 1990–1992 research residency with ALPHA.

The globalization of paleoflood hydrologywas greatly facilitated byseveral formal international initiatives. Starting in 1992 (Fig. 4), ALPHAinitiated conferences specifically focused on paleoflood hydrology(Table 3). In 1991 a commission on Global Continental Hydrology(GLOCOPH) was approved at the Beijing meeting of the InternationalUnion for Quaternary Research (INQUA). The original officers of thecommission were L. Starkel, K.J. Gregory, and V. R. Baker, andpaleoflood hydrology became a key component of its activities,which included meetings (Table 3) and publications (e.g., Gregoryet al., 1995; Branson et al., 1996; Benito et al., 1998; Gregory andBenito, 2003). A major international effort, funded by the EuropeanCommission, was the 2000–2003 project SPHERE (Systematic, Paleo-flood and Historical data for the improvEment of flood RiskEstimation). The SPHERE project achieved integration of long-termhistorical and paleoflood records from northeastern Spain andsoutheastern France with conventional hydrological and engineeringstudies (Thorndycraft et al., 2003; Benito and Thorndycraft, 2004). Theresults are being directly incorporated into the estimations of floodrisks (Benito et al., 2004a; Benito and Thorndycraft, 2005).

Fig. 4. Participants on the field trip of the First International Workshop on Paleoflood Hydrology, May 1992. The study site is Marble Canyon of the Colorado River, an area withpaleoflood features described by O'Connor et al. (1994).

Table 2Selected examples of paleoflood hydrology studies in the United States

Region State References

Southwest Texas (west) Patton and Dibble (1982); Kochel et al. (1982)Arizona (center) Ely and Baker (1985); Partridge and Baker (1987)Arizona (north) Enzel et al. (1994); Webb et al. (2002)Arizona (south) Martinez-Goytre et al. (1994)Arizona (west) House and Baker (2001)Utah (south) Patton and Boison (1986); Webb et al. (1988)Utah (north) Levish and Ostenaa (1996)Colorado Jarrett (1990); Jarrett and Tomlinson (2000)California Enzel (1992); Ostenaa et al. (1996)Nevada Kellogg (2001)New Mexico Levish (2002)

Northwest Washington Chatters and Hoover (1994)Idaho Tullis et al. (1983); Ostenaa et al. (2002)Oregon Levish and Ostenaa (1996); O'Connor et al. (2003)Wyoming Levish (2002)Alaska Mason and Beget (1991)

North Wisconsin Knox (1985, 1993, 2000)Central South Dakota Levish (2002)

North Dakota Harrison and Reid (1967)Nebraska Levish (2002)

South Texas (central) Baker (1975); Baker et al. (1979); Patton and Baker(1977)

Central Oklahoma McQueen et al. (1993)Northeast Connecticut Patton (1988)

Massachusetts Jahns (1947)Vermont Brown et al. (2000)West Virginia Springer and Kite (1997)Ohio Mansfield (1938)

Southeast Virginia Sigafoos (1964)

6 V.R. Baker / Geomorphology 101 (2008) 1–13

3.3. Geochronology

Early work in paleoflood hydrology relied almost exclusively onconventional radiocarbon dating for its geochronology (Fig. 5). Sincethe 1980s, however, spectacular advances have been made ingeochrological techniques for precisely determining the ages ofancient paleofloods. Most important have been tandem acceleratormass spectrometry (TAMS) radiocarbon analyses and optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. TAMS technology permits theprecise dating of tiny carbon-rich material (as small as a milligram —the size of single pollen grain) that was transported by a flood orburied by flood-related deposition. OSL technology permits the datingof individual sand/silt grains that were transported in suspension bythe flood event (Stokes and Walling, 2003). Very young slackwaterdeposits can even be dated to the year with bomb-curve radiocarbonanalyses (Baker et al., 1985). Cesium 137 is also used for dating veryyoung deposits (Ely et al., 1992; Thorndycraft et al., 2005b).

Terrestrial in situ cosmogenic nuclides (Gosse and Phillips, 2001)have immense potential for dating paleofloods. These nuclides makepossible the direct dating of rock surfaces that have been exposed tocosmogenic radiation for periods between 103 and 107 years. Theoptimal exposed surfaces include (1) flood-transported boulders, and(2) bedrock that was deeply scoured by a specific flood. In either case itis important that the surface exposed by the flood of interest not beappreciably modified by later events or processes. Thus, the method ismost appropriate for the dating of the most extreme event to occurover a given time period, because the eroded surfaces or bouldersresulting from these events are most likely to occur in locations thatwere not subject to later modification. Cl-36 and He-3 are the nuclideswhich seem to have the best prospects for this application topaleoflood hydrology.

3.4. Hydraulic modeling

The early paleoflood hydrology studies used the slope–areacalculation procedures. In the 1980s the introduction of computa-tional step-backwater analyses led to greatly improved analyses(O'Connor and Webb, 1988; Webb and Jarrett, 2002). Various paleo-stage indicators, including the elevations of slackwater deposits, can

be plotted with profiles of the modeled paleostages for variousdischarge levels (Fig. 6). The resulting estimates of discharge can thenbe compared in terms of frequencies to estimates based onextrapolations of short-term gage records (Fig. 7).

Important advances have occurred since the 1980s in variousaspects of computational hydraulics (Kutija, 2003). Various 2-dmodels, particularly depth-averaged approaches, are increasinglybeing employed for paleoflood studies (Denlinger et al., 2002;Pelletier et al., 2005; Miyamoto et al., 2006; Carrivick, 2007).

3.5. Flood-frequency analysis

The use of paleoflood data for flood-frequency analyses wasadvocated by Costa (1978), by Baker et al. (1979), and by Costa andBaker (1981). Early interest by hydrologists in this methodology wasindicated by its inclusion in a 1978–1981 study by the Panel onScientific Basis of Water-Resource Management, Geophysics ResearchBoard.Walter C. Langbein had encouraged the author's contribution tothe study panel report (Baker, 1982). Langbein had earlier advocatedmore use by hydrologists of paleoflood information (Hoyt andLangbein, 1955, p. 63):

Studies of debris deposits… of the character of trees and othervegetation… of the evidences of channel-scouring and -filling, andother prominent geologic and geomorphic features may addsignificant information about floods in the past. But as yet littlehas been done to decipher the geologic record.

At the time of the 1976 NSF proposal review noted above, thestandard procedure for flood-frequency analysis in the United Statesinvolved a method of adjusted moments for fitting the log Pearsontype III distribution (U.S. Water Resources Council, 1982). Thisprocedure was indeed highly inefficient in regard to incorporatingpaleoflood data into a flood-frequency analysis (Lane, 1987). Fortu-nately, a kind of breakthrough was achieved by Stedinger and Cohn(1986), as elaborated in subsequent work (Stedinger and Baker, 1987;

Fig. 5. Flood slackwater deposit stratigraphy at Arenosa Shelter on the Pecos River inwestern Texas. From Kochel (1980).

Table 3International paleoflood conference/workshops (numbered) and related meetings

Number/name

Dates Location Convenor(s)

1 May 26–30, 1992 Flagstaff,Arizona

V. R. Baker

2 September 26–October 1, 1999

Prescott,Arizona

P. K. House

3 August 1–7, 2003 Hood River,Oregon

L. Ely, J. E. O'Connor, P. K. House

4 June 24–30, 2007 Chania, Crete,Greece

P. Brewer, M. Macklin, S. Tooth,J. Woodward

⁎ October 16–19, 2002 Barcelona,Spain

Gerardo Benito, Carmen Llasat

⁎⁎ September 9–12. 1994 Southampton,U.K.

J. Branson, K.J. Gregory

⁎⁎ September 7–13, 1996 Toledo, Spain G. Benito, A. Perez-Gonzalez⁎⁎ September 4–7, 1998 Kumagaya,

JapanH. Shimazu

⁎⁎ August 20–28, 2000 Moscow,Russia

A. Georgiadi

⁎⁎ December, 2–7, 2002 Pune, India V. S. Kale⁎⁎ May 15–19, 2005 Bonn, Germany J. Herget⁎⁎ August 25–31, 2006 Guarulhos,

BrazilJ.C. Stevaux

⁎“Paleofloods, Historical Data and Climatic Variability: Applications of Flood RiskAssessment” (European Commission, DG RTD — Directorate I).⁎⁎Meetings of the Commission on Global Continental Paleohydrology (GLOCOPH) of theInternational Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA).

7V.R. Baker / Geomorphology 101 (2008) 1–13

Jin and Stedinger, 1989; Cohn et al., 1997; Martins and Stedinger,2001). These studies used likelihood functions in the analyses. Otherimportant advances for incorporating paleoflood data include worksby Salas et al. (1994), Stevens (1994) Frances et al. (1994). Usefulreviews are provided by Stedinger et al. (1993) and Frances (2004).

Non-parametric Baysian flood-frequency estimation procedureswere developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for employingpaleoflood data in their dam-safety investigations (O'Connell et al.,2002; O'Connell, 2005). Parent and Bernier (2003) advocate a Baysianprocedure for a peak over threshold model. Baysian Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods are discussed by Reis and Stedinger (2005).

Though measurement error is a common concern by hydrologists(Hosking and Wallis, 1986; Yevjevich and Harmancioglu, 1987), it isclear that its effects can be treated appropriately (Blainey et al., 2002;O'Connell et al., 2002). Moreover, proper attention to field relation-ships can reduce measurement errors considerably (Kochel and Baker,1988; Jarrett and England, 2002; Webb et al., 2002).

3.6. Climate and atmospheric circulation patterns

Large floods preferentially cluster in certain time periods, probablyinfluenced by long-term trends in atmospheric circulation or oceanicsea-surface temperatures (Hirschboeck, 1987). Many paleoflood studieshave documented the sensitivity of floods to climatic conditions (Knox,1993; Ely, 1997; Knox, 2000) and the clustering of extreme floods intotime periods characterized by flood-generating climatic phenomena(Ely et al.,1993; Knox, 2000; Benito et al., 2003a,b). Such studies confirmthe presence of non-stationarity in conventional stream gage recordsthat are impacted by shifting atmospheric circulation patterns in regardto flood-generating meteorological conditions (Webb and Betancourt,1992; Knox, 2000; Redmond et al., 2002).

3.7. Applications

Though it was strongly advocated in the U.S. for engineering designapplications (Costa, 1978; Baker et al., 1979, 1987b, 1990) anddemonstrated for such (e.g., Stedinger et al., 1988; Webb andRathburn, 1988), the importance of paleoflood hydrology was firstrecognized by engineers in Australia (Pilgrim, 1987) and South Africa(Boshoff et al., 1993). A shift in U.S. engineering attitudes occurred inthe 1990s, when the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation began a series ofprojects applying paleoflood hydrology to problems of dam safety.Among the first of these were studies in the Santa Ynez River Basin,

California (Ostenaa et al., 1996) and the Ogden River Basin, Utah(Ostenaa et al., 1997). Paleoflood data have since been applied toproblems of dam safety throughout the western U.S. (Levish et al.,1997; Levish, 2002), Spain (Benito et al., 2006), and Israel (Greenbaum,2007). Ostenaa et al. (2002) employ paleoflood hydrology forevaluating safety to nuclear power plants and stored radioactivewaste.

4. Prospects (2007)

A very preliminary survey of historical and paleoflood records,generally extending over the past several millennia, suggests thefollowing (though the database is still inadequate to defend theseconclusions in a rigorousmanner): (1) very largefloods (thoseexceedingsome threshold value) seem to cluster on time scales of decades andcenturies; (2) some regions, particularly in arid regions and the tropics,where the most recent century shows a cluster of extreme floodmagnitudes; (3) the floods of recent years do not generally exceed the

Fig. 7. Flood-frequency curves for the systematic gage record alone (solid line)compared to a curve that incorporates paleoflood data, San Juan River, southeasternUtah. From Orchard (2001, p. 60).

Fig. 6. Surveyed and modeled paleoflood water-surface profiles of San Juan River in southeastern Utah, showing the relationships with slackwater deposits and other paleostageindicators (driftwood lines). From Orchard (2001, p. 54).

8 V.R. Baker / Geomorphology 101 (2008) 1–13

magnitudes of those in the current cluster, or those of past clusters, andmuch larger floods are usually indicated for the past; and (4) the flood-frequency paradigm (“hundred-year flood”) is generally erroneous asscience and misleading/destructive as public policy/communication(Baker, 1994, 2003). These conclusions are sufficiently controversial andimportant enough to warrant the expenditure of more resources on thecollection of relevant historical and paleoflood data. Unfortunately, thecurrent paradigm in global change, earth-system science, and relatedhydrological assessment of flood hazards entails overemphasis onprediction from idealized conceptual models. In contrast to theauthoritative role of predictions in public policy debates, paleoflooddata provide evidence of real-work cataclysms that people can under-stand sufficiently to alter their perceptions of hazards, therebystimulating appropriate action toward mitigation.

4.1. Patterns of change

Usingmethodologies pioneered byMacklin and Lewin (2003) it hasbecome possible to achieve powerful analyses of radiocarbon-dateddatabases of floods and phases for the Holocene. The data arestructured into summed probability plots. These have been publishedfor the U.K (Johnstone et al., 2006), Poland (Starkel et al., 2006) andSpain (Thorndycraft and Benito, 2006). A comparison of the 3databases (Macklin et al., 2006) reveals multiple phases of higherflood frequency, characterized by accelerated erosion and sedimentdeposition on floodplains. As of this writing, additional databasestudieswere inprogress for India and for the southwesternU.S. Clearly,the global analyses of these databases will be important for baselinestudies of global climate and land-use changes (Gregory et al., 2006).

Other interesting areas of scientific advance may become possibleas more and more data sets are created for long-term flood series. Doextreme floods follow a power-law rule, similar to what is observedfor other geophysical processes (Kidson and Richards, 2005; Malamudand Turcotte, 2006)? Do paleofloods achieve local maxima in regard todrainage areas for a given hydrological region (e.g., Enzel et al., 1993;Baker, 2006)?

4.2. Perception and politics

Science can either act as an authoritative basis of information, or itcan work with public perception to stimulate wise responses topotential hazards, such as floods (Baker, 1994, 1998c). As a practicalmatter, in the public debate over responses to hazards, thedocumented occurrence of an ancient (but real) cataclysmic flood islikely to have more impact than is an authoritative (but highlyabstract) discussion of various hypothetical probability distributions.Thus, the confirmation of flood models with paleoflood data is properscience; it also serves to increase public confidence in any proposedsolution that ultimately will lead to great economic or social expensefor hazard mitigation. Common sense holds that what has reallyhappened can happen again. Whereas the probabilities of realphenomena may not be as easy to specify as those of idealizedconceptualizations of those phenomena, the former have theimmensely greater impact on human perception. Regardless of thescientific points of view, the practical need to achieve wise action inflood mitigation requires greater attention to paleoflood hydrologythan has been previously accorded.

An increasing realization exists that prediction is a problematicgoal for environmental science (Sarewitz et al., 2000). It may well bethat the most effective role for paleoflood hydrology is not mainly asan aid to predictions, though it has an important role in testing them.The more appropriate role for paleoflood hydrology is to aidhumankind in its anticipation of flood hazards. As we face thepotential for immense social impact from cataclysmic floods thepublic must realize that reliable science exists to counter the claims ofpoliticians that such events are “unprecedented”.

5. Conclusions — does the past have a future?

In an official review of a paleoflood hydrology overview for the U.S.report to the International Association of the Hydrological Sciences(Stedinger and Baker, 1987) the following anonymous comments werereceived:

Imagine a solid-state physicist, organic chemist or other practi-tioner of “hard science” reading this manuscript… Shaking hishead with sad amusement as he muses about how far thegeologists still have to go before their field of study can properlybe called science, he leafs through the final section of themanuscript and references. This wipes the smile off his face, forhe discovers that these paleohydrological methods are beingadvocated, in all seriousness, for use in assessing the safety ofdams and choosing sites for hazardous waste disposal.

20 years has now past since this imaginative criticism of paleofloodhydrology. Considerable progress has beenmade, though probably notenough to impress this imaginary male proponent of “hard science”.Nevertheless, in the spirit of the anonymous author of the criticism,we can similarly imagine that over the past 20 years his physics-inspired “hard science” could well have generated the kind ofquantitative environmental science that led to the fiascos recentlydocumented by Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis (2007).

After nearly three decades of research in paleoflood hydrology, it hasbeen found that the more extreme and rare the flood, the morepersistent and readily discernible is the evidence from which todetermine the physical nature of the event. This is especially the casefor the high-magnitude floods in tropical and desert regions (Baker,2000). In essence, the rivers that best preserve evidence for paleofloods(Baker and Pickup,1987) are self-gauging rivers. Just as flood hydrologyin the past twodecades has experienced a revolutionary developmentofquantitative computer models, so has a contemporaneous revolution inthe methodology for accomplishing paleoflood hydrology. Whereas thecomputer modeling revolution extends mathematical idealizations ofnature to phenomena that defy realistic testing, the paleofloodrevolution, however, involves the accurate recovery of magnitudes andages for the largest floods to have actually occurred during the pastmillennia. This is an information that can aid conventional floodassessments (Baker, 1989, 2000), but it can also be used unconvention-ally, for the direct communication of the perception of flood hazard tothose at risk (Baker,1998c). The goal then is not to authoritatively justifya particular flood mitigation action favored by some political interest.Rather, paleoflood hydrology functions best in a pragmatic manner(Baker, 2007), by reliably guiding potential choices of actions that willaccordwith risks that arewidely understood and anticipated because ofdocumented reality.

Acknowledgements

The author's early paleoflood hydrology researchwas supported bythe U.S. National Science Foundation. Over the years the workbenefited from interactions with numerous mentors, students,colleagues and collaborators. Among the earliest of these were W. C.Bradley, J Harlen Bretz, J.E. Costa, R.C. Kochel, P.C. Patton, G. Pickup,and D. T. Snow. Subsequent influences came from G. Benito, L.L. Ely, Y.Enzel, K.J. Gregory, K.K. Hirschboeck, P.K. House, V.S. Kale, J. E.O'Connor, S.N. Rajaguru, A.P. Schick, L. Starkel, J.R. Stedinger, R.H.Webb, and E.E. Wohl, among others. This paper is contributionnumber 82 of the Arizona Laboratory for Paleohydrological andHydroclimatological Analysis (ALPHA), The University of Arizona.

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