ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Photo-oxidants formation and transport over Europe

during the heat wave period in July 2006

Joanna StruzewskaWarsaw University of Technology, Warsaw,

Poland

Jacek Kaminski York University, Toronto, Canada

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Outline

July 2006 case study GEM-AQ model description and experiment setup Result analysis – heat wave development Impact on photochemical pollution Summary Future plans

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

July 2006 – case study

Prolonged heat wave period over Europe The hottest July since official measurements begun Two sub-periods might be distinguished

Impacts Droughts Increased mortality Air quality problem over entire continent

Extreme events over Western Europe

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Heat wave development

Based on weather services reports: July 3rd - Heat wave in Western Europe (France) July 4th - Hot air reached Central Europe July 6th - Severe thunderstorms over Western Europe July 7th - Hot air from over Africa passing towards

Lithuania and Latvia July 13th High air temperature across Europe – African air

from the south-west and air from Asia from the east

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Aim of the study

Analysis of photochemical pollution during first heat wave period over Central Europe in July 2006 (July 3 – 14)

Analysis based on GEM-AQ model simulation over Europe Meteorological situation over Europe used for the

interpretation of air quality indices GEM-AQ model evaluation:

Meteorological and air quality measurements - 14 stations from Poland

Ozone measurements - 5 UK and 4 French stations (Airparif) Station type: rural / background

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

GEM-AQ model description

The Canadian operational weather forecast model, the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) (Côté, et al., 1998) is used as a host meteorological model for inclusion of tropospheric air quality processes:

Gas phase chemistry Aerosol chemistry and physics (not used in this study) Heterogenous chemistry (not used in this study) Antropogenic and biogenic emissions Dry and wet removal Vertical diffusion of gas and aerosol trace species

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

GEM-AQ experiment setup

Grid: global variable resolution mode 0.135 deg (~15 km) over Europe (core) 400 x 350 (core)

Time span: 3 - 14 of July 2006 Time step: 450 s. Modelling strategy

OA every 6 hours used to produce trial fields Chemical initial conditions from 5-year run with GEM-AQ,

1.5x1.5 deg. uniform resolution

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Model domain - core

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Results’ analysis - meteorology

Meteorological analysis: Synoptic situation (pressure patterns, circulation) Average temperature 10 – 17 LT (each day and averaged

for the simulation period) Number of hours with the temperature exceeding 30oC Cloudiness (averaged for the period)

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Synoptic situation July 4th Low pressure system forced transport of hot air masses

towards Western Europe

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Synoptic situation July 6th Mutual location of pressure systems over Africa and Central

Europe allowed for transport of hot air masses to the north

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Synoptic situation July 13th Circulation patterns causing the transport of hot air masses

towards Europe from the south and east

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Air temperature (8 hour average)

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Number of hours with air temperature exceeding 30oC

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Average cloud cover

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Result analysis - ozone

Air quality indices - ozone: Maximum 8-h moving average – each day (area exposed

to > 120 ug/m3) Number of hours exceeding information treshold (180

μg/m3) Number of hours exceeding alert treshold (240 μg/m3) Average 8-hour concentration for the period (10 – 17 LT)

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

O3 - maximum 8-h moving average

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Information threshold exceedings

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

8-hour average temperature and O3

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Comparison with O3 measurements

Wicken Fen - UK

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Comparison with O3 measurements

Ramboulliet - France

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Comparison with O3 measurements

Widuchowa - Poland

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Comparison with O3 measurements

Mscigniew - Poland

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Summary 1/4

The on-line GEM-AQ model reproduced correctly development of pressure systems and inflow of hot air masses towards Europe

Good agreement with surface synoptic maps and meteorological measurements

Heat wave during the first week of July 2006 was connected with the development of low pressure system over France and favourable anticyclonic circulation over Central Europe

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Summary 2/4

Inflow of humid and relatively cooler air from over Atlantic Ocean towards Western Europe generated instability, causing severe thunderstorms and gales over France and Germany

Stable high over Central-Eastern Europe blocked the front movement and transported hot air masses towards north-eastern Europe

During the second week of July frontal systems over Westren Europe dissipated and hot air was transported from over Africa and Asia

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Summary 3/4

The GEM-AQ model reproduced high ozone concentrations during heat wave period

Good agreement with O3 measurements (rural-background station type)

Ozone variability better reproduced for UK and French monitoring stations

Emission data might be less accurate for Central-Eastern Europe

Bigenic emission used for this study might not be representative for heat wave period

For some Polish stations ozone concentrations slightly overestimated especially during nighttime

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Summary 4/4

High concentration of ozone affected most of European continent

Air quality standards were exceeded especially in Central Europe (120 μg/m3 8-h moving average and the information threshold exceeded)

High pressure system allowed for persisting of hot and polluted air mass, clear sky and weak wind conditions enhanced photochemical production

Ozone pollution in northern part and Baltic countries might be connected with transport but might has been enhances by biogenic VOC emisions during heat wave period

ACCENT/GLOREAM 2006, 11-13 October, Paris

Future plans

Numerical simulation for the period 15 – 31 of July Air mass ageing index analysis Analysis of biogenic VOC emissions (especially in

Baltic countries) Comparison with other available AQ measurements

and available satellite images