accelerating the transition to electric vehicles · accelerating the transition to electric...
TRANSCRIPT
Accelerating the
transition to electric
vehicles
Alan Finkel, October 2010
CTO, Better Place Australia
The problem
• Global warming from carbon dioxide emissions
• Peak oil
• Poor air quality in cities
Getting worse!
• 900 million cars worldwide now
• Massive growth predicted in China and India
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Electric vehicles are the answer
Electric vehicles are the future
But to start, a little bit of history…
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Electric cab, New York
1897
First automobile to reach 100
km/h, in 1899
First Wave 1890-1910
Second Wave 1990-2000
1990 Californian legislation:
10% of cars sold in 2003 must be zero-emission
Withdrawn in early 2000s
Tesla
Third Wave 2008 future
Tesla amazing performance
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Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, 2006
Tesla ultra-low CO2 emissions
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But most of all, these will be great cars...
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Nissan
Tesla roadster
Tesla sedan
Coda
Mitsubishi
BMW
Mercedes
SLS AMG E-Cell
Audi
Renault
Secret for Third-Wave success?
Seven reasons...
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≈100%
Petrol Electric
(green)
Reason 1 – operating C02 emissions
Car emissions
8%
Petrol Electric
National emissions
Petrol Electric
Reason 2 – oil consumption
Car consumption 30%
National consumption
≈100%
Petrol Electric
75%
National imports
Reason 3 – market perceptions
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Reason 4 – improved batteries
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1972
Stanley Whittingham
Exxon employee
km/kg
life
safety
“Costs are expected to come down by nearly
70 percent in the next few years.”
President Obama, July 2010
Reason 5 – Better Place infrastructure
Reason 6 – Better Place battery swap stations
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Reason 6 – Better Place battery swap stations
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Why not carry a spare in the boot?
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Reason 7 – lower operating costs
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Trains & trams have used electricity since late 1800s
because it is cheap, clean and reliable
Cost comparison for cars
petrol: 12 cents per kilometre
electricity: 3 to 4 cents per kilometre
All good, but what are customer concerns?
1) Price anxiety • batteries are expensive at low volumes
• impacts total cost of ownership
2) Range anxiety • country driving
• off-street parking
3) Battery anxiety
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How to eliminate these anxieties?
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Better Place Solution
• Better Place pays for and owns the battery
• Total cost of ownership near or below petrol vehicle
• Subscriber receives energy at home, work, public car parks, battery switch stations
Subscription model
How to eliminate these anxieties?
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Better Place Solution
• Private charge spots
• Public charge spots
• Battery swap stations
Range Extension
• Eliminates Cost Anxiety
• Eliminates Range Anxiety
• Eliminates Battery Anxiety
Battery Swap Stations
Electricity supply and impact
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Importance of Green Electricity
On existing mix of electricity generation
• 30% reduction typically
On “green” electricity
• 100% reduction
Better Place subscribers in Australia are guaranteed
green electricity
• Primarily wind and hydro
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EVs are well matched to renewables
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•Strong wind
•Strong sun
EVs are well matched to baseload power
Best-case charging
noon midnight noon
Power worst-case charging
NSW Australia – 1 million electric vehicles
Air quality
Conventional cars emit
• Sulphur oxides
• Nitrogen oxides
• Soot
• Old petrol cars are worst
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Air quality
Electric vehicles emit
• No sulphur oxides
• No nitrogen oxides
• No soot
• Old EVs remain clean
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No exhaust pipe!
Will batteries be the next form of pollution?
Minimize problem by postponing the “end-of-life”
event
• While creating significant value
Batteries withdrawn from vehicle are still good
• 80% residual capacity
• a million batteries each year
• “Second-life” opportunity
• Storage for renewables
• Supply peak demand
Does it add up to much?
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Enough to power Australia for 8 hours
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Ultimately, recycle
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90% recyclable
Embodied energy
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
Life Cycle Analyses across Entire Lifecycle
Road Glider Drive-train Car: Mantenance and EOL Battery: Production, maintenance, EOL Operation
Sources: (1) Notter et al. “Contribution of Li-Ion Batteries to the Environmental Impact of Electric Vehicles.” Env Sci Tech. 2010;
(2) Gauch et al. Presentation by EMPA (Swiss Federal Lab for Materials Testing and Research), 2009
EI 99 H/A
CED
GWP
ADP
LCA method:
European electricity mix, Golf size vehicles, petrol based 5.2 L/100 km
Why electricity instead of biofuels?
Quantity of biofuels required is huge
Crop diversion
Be smart –
use biofuels where there is no choice
• aeroplanes
• Interstate trucks
• ships
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Why batteries instead of hydrogen?
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70 kWh mechanical
Electric Car
100 kWh electricity
Hydrogen Car
Losses
Electrolysis
Compression
Distribution
Leakage
ICE engine
15 kWh mechanical
Global progress
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EV taxis in Japan right now
•World’s first electric taxi project using switchable batteries
•Funded by Japanese government in Roppongi Hills
•Allows heavy use, continuous driving
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Initial test of full solution in Israel, 2H 2011
Renault Fluence, first full size EV developed for mass market
Charging at home and public charge spots
Battery switch stations to enable full country mobility
Integration with utility partner
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Australian progress
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Canberra pilot on track
Announced
Planning
Approvals
Construction
Pilot
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Can we accelerate the transition?
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Opportunities in Australia
Car design?
Infrastructure
Develop abundant zero-emissions electricity
• Solar electricity
• Wind electricity
• Hydro
• Other
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What can government do to help?
Price on carbon dioxide emissions
• take into account externalities such as health
and environment consequences
Price on size
• big houses
• big cars
Price on excessive per capita use
• water
• electricity
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The big challenge – global warming
How do we cut carbon dioxide emissions without
• hurting the economy?
• undermining our lifestyle?
Solutions include
• downsizing
• behavioural change
• price driven?
• clean electricity
• electric cars
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Ultimate solution – Electron Economy
We could cut GHG emissions 46% by
• converting to clean electricity (38%)
• converting to electric cars (8%)
To cut emissions 71%
• electrify other transport (8%)
• replace non-electrical stationary energy (17%)
• (half of remaining 29% is agriculture)
Not in isolation!
• Combine with efficiencies & behavioural change
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