abu saeed khan - unlocking asian borders for new avenue to revenue
TRANSCRIPT
Unlocking Asian Borders forNew Avenue to Revenue
Pacific Telecommunications CouncilHonolulu, HawaiiJanuary 18, 2016
Abu Saeed Khan ([email protected])Senior Policy Fellow
LIRNEasia
A miracle had happened in 1997
Oslo 2006
Asia keeps Telenor solvent. But how long?Source: Telenor Group Q3 ’15 Financial Reports.
Ericsson Mobility Report November 2015
Is Asia ready for 2021?
• Spectrum is critical for GSM/EDGE. Spectrum and Internet are, however, equally critical for WCDMA/HSPA, LTE/5G.
• International connectivity is the lifeline of IP Transit, Cloud, CDN, Data Centers, Peering etc.
• Carriers are centralized in SG and HK. IP Transit is disproportionately expensive in the region.
• Major regulatory roadblocks in Asia: – Spectrum lacks technology-neutrality (Demand-side problem). – Cross-border connectivity only through submarine cables
(Supply-side problem).– No carrier-neutral submarine cable, cable landing stations,
gateways, metro and domestic TX networks.
Asia vs. Europe: Median monthly IP Transit prices per Mbps, 10 GigE, Q2 2015
Amsterd
am
CopenhagenParis
Frankfurt
London
Madrid OsloMila
n
Warsa
w
Bucharest
Sofia
Moscow
Singapore
Hong KongTokyo
Seoul
Taipei
Bangkok
Jakarta
Kuala Lumpur
Mumbai
$0.9
2
$0.9
6
$0.9
7
$1.0
0
$1.0
0
$1.0
0
$1.0
4
$1.1
2
$1.1
2
$1.2
0
$1.2
5
$1.4
0
$4.1
0
$4.4
1
$5.0
0 $6.0
0
$8.0
0 $9.0
0 $10.
00
$11.
00
$14.
50 Source: TeleGeography. 10 GigE = 10,000 Mbps. Prices (US$) excluding local access and installation fees.
ITU’s “Measuring the Information Society Report 2015” (Selected Asian economies)
90.6
%
87.9
%
85.5
%
84.6
%
82.0
%
74.6
%
67.5
%
49.3
%
48.3
%
37.9
%
34.9
%
25.8
%
18.0
%
17.1
%
Individual Internet users (Fixed & Mobile 2014)
3,345
617
95 75 49 47 43 28 27 21 13 6 6 5
International bandwidth per Internet user (Kbps, 2014)
669X
103X
“Akamai state of the Internet Q3 2015”Broadband inequality across Asia Pacific
South Korea
Hong Kong
Japan
Singa
pore
Taiwan
New Ze
aland
Thaila
nd
Australia
Sri La
nka
Malaysi
aChina
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
India
20.5
15.8 15.012.5
10.18.7 8.2 7.8
5.1 4.9 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5
Average speed (Mbps)
South Korea
Thaila
nd
Hong Kong
Japan
Taiwan
New Ze
aland
Singa
pore
Sri La
nka
Australia
Malaysi
aChina
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
Philippines
96% 93% 92% 90% 88% 87% 87%76% 72%
52%
33% 31%17% 14% 10%
>4 Mbps
South Korea
Hong Kong
Japan
Singa
pore
Taiwan
New Ze
aland
Thaila
nd
Australia
Malaysi
aIndia
Sri La
nkaChina
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
68%59%
54% 51%
29%22% 18% 18%
4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
>10 Mbps
South Korea
Hong Kong
Japan
Singa
pore
Taiwan
New Ze
aland
Australia
Thaila
nd
Malaysi
aIndia
Sri La
nka
Indonesia
China
Philippines
Vietnam
45.0%
36.0%32.0%
27.0%
13.0%8.2% 7.4% 5.8%
0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
>15 Mbps
Tale of two continents:Akamai reveals the qualitative difference
South Korea
Hong Kong
Japan
Singa
pore
Taiwan
New Ze
aland
Thaila
nd
Australia
Sri La
nka
Malaysi
aChina
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
India
20.5
15.8 15.012.5
10.18.7 8.2 7.8
5.1 4.9 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5
Top 15 Asian markets’ average speed (Mbps) in Q3 2015
Swed
en
Norway
Switze
rland
Netherl
ands
Finlan
d
Czech Rep
ublic
Denmark
Romania
United Kingd
om
Belgium
Irelan
d
German
y
Austria
Israel
Slova
kia
17.416.4 16.2 15.6 14.8 14.5 14.0 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.4 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.2
Top 15 European markets’ average speed (Mbps) in Q3 2015 Landlocked countries. No direct access to submarine ca-
bles.
Farewell to segregation:Technology has democratized global connectivity
Courtesy: Ciena
Submarine networks = Terrestrial networksCoastal countries = Landlocked countries
Terrestrial link
Submarine cable
Infrastructure dictates bandwidth price• “…..price levels vary by region
and between terrestrial and subsea deployments.
• Upgrades to 100Gbps equipment on terrestrial networks have been rapid in recent years as bandwidth demand has increased, and European and intra-US terrestrial routes exhibit the lowest 100Gbps prices globally. ”
Source: TeleGeography. 100G: are the potential savings worth the investment? 4 Jun 2015
Terrestrial cross-border links: Normal in Europe, not in Asia.
Terrestrial cross-border links: Normal in Europe, not in Asia.
Infrastructure is all about right-of-way
Connecting 32 countries with EU through 143,000 km of standardized roadways.
World’s most resilient right-of-way
Asian Highway has linked 32 countries.A cross-border meshed network is to be built.
Target: Open-access
• Diversity and Redundancy to all submarine cables linking Asia with Europe, and USA, through a Terrestrial Consortium.
• Let the offshore and on-shore traffic blend. – Lower latency with better packet delivery at lesser cost.
• No regulatory disruption.– Only the licensed carriers will access the Asian Information Highway.
• Internet in Asia will be similar to or cheaper than the EU.– There will be higher ROI in FTTx.– Mobile broadband (4G/5G) will grow like 2G voice.
• Smart devices and Wi-Fi offload will accelerate the data growth.– Investments in Transpacific cables will increase.
• Is Asia-Africa-LatAm the possible next long-haul route?
• More international and domestic PoPs will emerge.Landlocked countries will have bandwidth at equal cost.
Sub-regional telecoms initiatives (GMS-IS and SASEC) have failed to deliver.Pacific islands will enjoy reduced bandwidth cost in the mainland.
• International Gateway reforms will be accelerated.– Usage of submarine cables’ purchased capacity will be maximized.– Carriers will commit longer contracts.
Impacts
Carriers’ unfettered access to Asian market
New kids on the block. Who’s next?
Google: Unity (2010), SJC (2013), FASTER (2016)*, COTA (2016).Microsoft: Hibernia Express (2015), AEConnect (2015), NCP (2015), Seabras-1 (2016).Facebook: APG (2015). *Equinix
From LION (2012) to AP-IS (2015)• LIRNEasia has proposed Longest International
Optical Network (LION) along Asian Highway.• ESCAP has engaged ‘Terabit Consulting’ to study
Asia’s state of broadband and connectivity. • LIRNEasia was tasked to review Terabit’s reports and
write a Policy Document. LIRNEasia has strongly recommended deploying fiber along Asian Highway for an open access network.
• ESCAP rebranded LION as Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway (AP-IS). It also proposes to amend the AH agreement to accommodate optical fiber.
Connecting 32 countries with EU through 143,000 km of standardized roadways.
PTC should join AP-IS Working Group of ESCAP
