Abrupt Climate Change

Review of last lecture

• Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation? Two types of ocean upwelling

• Mean state: ocean-atmosphere feedback

• ENSO: Which region has warm SST anomaly during El Nino? 4-year period.

• Existing ENSO theories

• AMO and thermohaline circulation

Global connections

The most common atmospheric circulation structure

L

H

H

L

HeatingCoolingor No Heating

Imbalance of heating Imbalance of temperature Imbalance of pressure Wind

Radiation Convection Conduction

Latent/Sensible

BiosphereLand/Ocean/Ice/

Stratosphere Feedback

Greenhouse Gases

Pollution

Clouds Precipitation (Latent heat)

Projected Change in Global Mean Temperature

Abrupt climate change and tipping point– Lesson from Earth’s climate history

Termination of the Younger Dryas cold event and last ice age 11,600 years ago

Abrupt climate change and history/politics- Collapse of Maya civilization and

Chinese ancient dynasties

Droughts

Bifurcation and tipping point

Movie timeA global warning?

Examples of tipping points

Interactions among tipping points

Mitigation of global warming: Kyoto protocol

• Negotiated in 1997. Commits parties to internationally binding emission reduction targets.

• “Common but differentiated responsibilities”– Specific reduction targets for developed countries– Measures to slow the growth of emissions in

developing countries• Non-parties:

– Canada– USA– Andorra– South Sudan– Palestine– Vatican City

Green economy

Summary

• Past abrupt climate change • Tipping points• Future abrupt climate change• Mitigation: International (Kyoto Protocol), Green economy

(Renewable energy, Sustainable transportation, Green buildings, Energy-efficient industry and carbon capture, Land management, afforestation, waste management)

Work cited• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/abrupt.html • http

://intercongreen.com/2010/03/15/green-building-ebbs-slightly-in-recession-but-sentiment-remains-strong/

• http://nimbuseco.com/2013/01/deforestation-and-pollution-facts/ • http://greenbalkans.org/category.php?language=en_EN&cat_id=63 • http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ia/newsroom/releases/?cid=

nrcs142p2_011847 • http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Megan-Clark-presentation-2

0090526-generating-industries/Post-Combustion-Carbon-Capture.aspx

• http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/09/the_consumer_dr.html • http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/human-health • http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0564-112.pdf/$file/EE-0564-112.

pdf • http://livinggreenmag.com/2012/06/13/climate-change/scientists-warn-that-earth-is-

close-to-climate-tipping-point/ • http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/opinion/mystreet-digital-anthropology/ • http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World-airline-routemap-2009.png