CC and International Trade: AgMIP mul t i -model comparisons

Dr. He l a l Aha m m a d Austra l ian Bureau of Ag ricu ltural and Resource Economics and Sciences

5 N ove mbe r 2 0 1 3 , FA O , R ome

FAO EXPERT CONSULTATION ON Globa l Food Production under Changing Climate and Increased Variab ility : Implica tions for Trade and Food Policy

ABARES

Agrifood

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http://www.agmip.org/

Key insights from AgMIP on cl imate change and in ternational agr i food trade Economic growth and population growth

are the key drivers of agrifood trade Enhanced role for trade under climate

change Qualified insights (not predictions)

AgMIP: Global economic modeling Models: Key features

Scenarios and assumptions Modelled results: Key insights

Presentation outline Cl imate change and in ternat ional agr i food trade

Forecasting Statistics Analysis

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

The Carbon Farming Initiative A proposed common practice framework for assessing additionality Felicity Woodhams, Darren Southwell, Sarah Bruce, Belinda Barnes,

Helen Appleton, Jasmine Rickards, James Walcott, Beau Hug, Linden Whittle and Helal Ahammad

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural

and Resource Economics and Sciences

Technical report 12.2 August 2012

Modeling: Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) http:/ /www.daff.gov.au/abares/models

http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/research_reports/9aab/2013/RR13.11PotSocEcoImpctOfFMD/RR13.11PotSocEcoImpctOfFMD_v1.0.0.docx

Brings together Climate Model lers

Crop modellers

Regional and global economic modellers Funded by CGIAR Program on CC, Ag and Food Security

USDA

UK Department of International Development

: An overview

http://www.agmip.org/

General circulation models (GCMs)

ΔTemp. ΔPrec. …

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs)

ΔYield

Global economic models

ΔArea ΔYield ΔCons. ΔTrade

Cl imate Biophysical Economic

Source: Nelson et al. (forthcoming)

The soft-linked AgMIP impact modeling

IMPACT (IFPRI)

GLOBIOM (IIASA)

GCAM (PNNL)

AIM (NIES)

Part ial equi l ibrium models: Net trade

General equi l ibrium models: Two-way trade

AgMIP economic models & international trade modeling

MAgPIE (PIK)

FARM (USDA)

ENVISAGE (FAO/WB)

GTEM (ABARES)

MAGNET LEI-WUR)

HadGEM2 -ES

IPSL -CM5A

-LR

LPJmL

Two cl imate models

Five crop models

AgMIP scenarios based on

pDSSAT DSSAT EPIC PEGASUS

Two socioeconomic pathways

SSP2

SSP3

What was not modelled (not explicit ly) Broader CC impacts

Climate change pol icy response

Planned adaptation including trade reform What was modelled Changes in natural resource endowments

Autonomous and price responsive adaptation

Qualified insights (not predictions)

Scenarios modeling

Exports by commodity & by region

Average over five years to 2009

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

Imports by commodity & by region

Average over five years to 2009

Source: FAOSTAT (2013)

Exports by commodity & by region At 2050, reference scenario (SSP2)

with no climate change impacts assumed (million tonnes)

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Index of export and production growth At 2050, reference scenario (SSP2)

with no climate change impacts assumed (normalised to unity)

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Net-importers and net-exporters At 2050, reference scenario (SSP2),

with no climate change impacts assumed

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Net-trade in coarse grains at 2050, USA

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Net-trade in coarse grains at 2050, China

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Net-trade in coarse grains at 2050, sub-Saharan Africa

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Changes in global production & exports At 2050, SSP3 relative to SS2,

with no climate change impacts assumed, (million tonnes)

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Changes in global production & exports At 2050,

climate change scenarios relative to the reference scenario (SSP2) (million tonnes)

Source: AgMIP economic modelling exercise

Lessons from the AgMIP exercise Cl imate change and in ternat ional agr i food trade Drivers of trade Economic and population growth: s ignif icant

Climate change: modest (globally) Model agreement Enhanced role of trade: robust

Qualified insights (not predictions) Unfinished business Regional impacts analysis

Model l ing global act ions on cl imate change

www.daff.gov.au/ABARES

ABARES

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