aaii sentiment index 12312001 thru 07292009

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Bearish Sentiment and JSCO Pain Index -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% S&P 6 mo. fws performance AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level in relation to period reviewed Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) Avg Pain S&P 6 months forward performance 100 per. Mov. Avg. (AAII Bearish Sentiment) Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 years In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose higher.

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Page 1: AAII Sentiment Index 12312001 Thru 07292009

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08

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-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

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10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

S&P

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AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDevCurrent Bearish level in relation to period reviewed Normal BearishJSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) Avg PainS&P 6 months forward performance 100 per. Mov. Avg. (AAII Bearish Sentiment)

Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 years

In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose higher.

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