aaii sentiment and jsco pain as of 8/21/2009
TRANSCRIPT
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Bea
rish
Sent
imen
t and
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
S&P
6 m
o. fw
s pe
rfor
man
ce
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDevCurrent Bearish level in relation to period reviewed Normal BearishJSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk AvgS&P 6 months forward performance
Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 years
In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose higher.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0S
ep-0
8
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
DJI
A
t JSCO Pain Index µ Pain Index of VIX DJIA
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0S
ep-0
1
Sep
-02
Sep
-03
Sep
-04
Sep
-05
Sep
-06
Sep
-07
Sep
-08
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
DJI
A
t JSCO Pain Index µ Pain Index of VIX DJIA