aaii bearish sentiment & jsco pain index
TRANSCRIPT
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Bea
rish
Sent
imen
t and
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
S&P
6 m
o. fw
s pe
rfor
man
ce
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev This week's bearish readingNormal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk AvgS&P 6 months forward performance
Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 yearsIn 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish
sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated
by the black dots), share prices rose hi h
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
Dec
-99
Dec
-00
Dec
-01
Dec
-02
Dec
-03
Dec
-04
Dec
-05
Dec
-06
Dec
-07
Dec
-08
% C
hg D
ow 1
yr l
ater
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
DJI
A
JSCO Pain Index µ % Chg in Dow 1 yr later DJIA