aaii bearish sentiment and jsco pain index as of 09182009
TRANSCRIPT
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Bea
rish
Sent
imen
t and
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
S&P
6 m
o. fw
s pe
rfor
man
ce
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish levelNormal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk AvgS&P 6 months forward performance
Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 yearsIn 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment
was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the black
dots), share prices rose higher.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0D
ec-0
5
Jan-
06
Feb-
06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06
Jul-0
6
Aug
-06
Sep
-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07
Feb-
07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07
Jul-0
7
Aug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
DJI
A
JSCO Pain Index µ DJIA
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6D
ec-0
8
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
DJI
A
JSCO Pain Index µ DJIA