aaii bearish sentiment 12312001 thru 08052009
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0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Bea
rish
Sent
imen
t and
JSC
O P
ain
Inde
x
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
S&P
6 m
o. fw
s pe
rfor
man
ce
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDevCurrent Bearish level in relation to period reviewed Normal BearishJSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk AvgS&P 6 months forward performance
Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 years
In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose higher.