A Vision FulfilledTransformative Science, Data Infrastructures and the IPCC Experience

Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado

CAM T341- Jim Hack

Climate of the last Millennium

Caspar AmmannNCAR/CGD

NSF/DOE IPCC ProjectNCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ES

6-Year Timeline2002: Climate Model/Data-systems development2003: Climate Model Control Simulations2004: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations2005: Data Postprocessing & Analysis2006: Scientific Synthesis2007: Publication

Observations of the

Earths Climate System

Simulations Past, Present

Future Climate States

Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

In recognition and appreciation of theIn recognition and appreciation of the

"The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 is to be shared, in two equal parts, between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al)

Gore Jr. for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change."

The National Center for Atmospheric Research The National Center for Atmospheric Research

PCMDI / LLNLPCMDI / LLNLfor its invaluable for its invaluable contributioncontribution to the CCSM3 development, production, to the CCSM3 development, production, and data analysis effort for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.and data analysis effort for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

CDP/ESG: A Vision FulfilledPre-2000

Home Grown Data Systems2000-Present

Community Data Portaldataportal.ucar.edudataportal.ucar.edu

2000-PresentEarth System Grid

• Initially Cheap• $$$ in long term• Limited Scale

• Modest Investment• Agile and Right-sized

for Many Projects• Institutional Scale

• Large Investment• Infrastructure for

Large Projects• Spans Institutions

Distributed Data Infrastrucres have transformed CCSM capabilites

• CCSM3.0 Release (2004)• Source Code, Input data and Documentation• So easy that it was almost an afterthought.

• IPCC AR4 (2005-present)• Distributed data services through PCMDI and NCAR • Delivered the model data for the IPCC AR 4 (WG 1)• Changed the World

• Ongoing CCWG Research

ESG data services have been a huge win for us…• Promoted use of data/metadata standards & richer metadata• Much cheaper, easier and effective• Allows us to reach huge new research/app communities (GIS)

“Lets our Scientists do Science”

Providing climate scientists with virtual proximity to large simulation results

needed for their research

• Very large distributed data archivesEasy federation of sitesAcross the US and around the world

• “Virtual Datasets” created through subsetting and aggregation• Metadata-based search and discovery• Web-based and analysis tool access• Increased flexibility and robustness• Server-side analysis

ESG GoalESG Goal Current ESG SitesCurrent ESG Sites

http://www-pcmdi.llnl.govhttp://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov

Dean Williams, PCMDI

Evolving ESG for the futureESG Data System EvolutionESG Data System Evolution

Central databaseCentralized curated data archiveTime aggregationDistribution by file transportNo ESG analysisShopping-cart-style web portalESG connection to desktop

analysis tools

Present

Testbed data sharingFederated metadata/portalsUnified user interfaceQuick look server-side analysis

with CDATLocation independenceDistributed aggregationManual data sharing/publishing

Early 2009Full data sharing (add to testbed…)Synchronized federation

metadata, data Full suite of server-side

analysis with CDATModel/observation integrationESG embedded into desktop

productivity tools with CDATGIS integrationModel intercomparison metricsUser support, life cycle

maintenance

2011

CCSM, AR5,satellite, In situ

biogeochemistry,ecosystems

CCSM, AR5,satellite, In situ

biogeochemistry,ecosystems

ESG Data ArchiveESG Data Archive

Terabytes Petabytes

CCSMAR4

CCSMAR4

Dean Williams, PCMDI

Briefing on ResultsBriefing on Results::USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision: Decision: a 6 month efforta 6 month effort

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Climate Change Epochs

Attribute sources of historical warming

Project range of possible non-mitigated future warming from SRES scenarios

Quantify Climate Change Commitment

• Project adaptation needs under various mitigation scenarios• Time-evolving regional climate change on

short and long-term timeframes • Quantify carbon cycle feedbacks

Before IPCC AR4 After

Conclusion: With the wide public acceptance of the IPCC AR4 findings, the climate science community is now facing the new challenge of quantifying time evolving regional climate change that human societies will have to adapt to under several possible mitigation scenarios, as well as addressing the size of carbon cycle feedbacks with more comprehensive Earth System Models

Geoengineering strategies

• Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel)

• High Altitude Sulphur injections

• Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds

• Sequestration of CO2

• Iron Fertilization, ...

Phil Rasch NCAR

We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out! We are proposing that the implications should be carefully explored.

2: 0.3%

3: 0.3-0.9%

4. Commitment

1. A2

Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance

Future Plans

The overarching goal is to ensure that CCSM plays a substantial and credible leadership role in climate change science, and makes substantial contributions to national and international coordinated climate change experiments and assessments

The current model development timeline anticipates CCSM4 in 2009 in time to participate in the next set of internationally coordinated mitigation scenario experiments in 2010-2011

short term climate change:  30-year climate predictions at higher resolution and a single scenario long term climate change:   300-year climate change simulations at medium resolution and carbon cycle for benchmark mitigation scenarios

A next-generation Earth System Model will also be under development during this time period.

T42 2.8°

FV 2.0°

T85 1.4°

FV 1.0°

T170 0.7°

FV 0.5°T340 .36° FV 0.25° FV 0.1°

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Hor

izon

tal G

rid

Siz

e (K

m)

310k m

220k m

160k m

110k m

78k m

55k m

39k m 28k m11k m

Lawrence Buja (NCAR)

GlobalGeneral Atm/Ocn

Circulation

Continental Scale Flow

Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups

RegionalMJO/MLC

Convergence

IPCC AR31998

IPCC AR42004 4TF

Sub-RegionalHurricanes

IPCC AR52010 500TF

CCSM Grand Challenge2010 1PF

MSE3 Climate Topics SummaryDOE’s ten-year vision to use exascale computing to

revolutionize DOE’s approaches to energy, environmental sustainability and security global challenges.

Exascale systems provide and unprecedented opportunity for science to use computation not only as an critical tool along with theory and experiment in understanding the behavior of the fundamental components of nature but also for fundamental discovery and exploration of the behavior of complex systems with billions of components including those involving humans.

Download complete MSE3 Report at http://www.er.doe.gov/ASCR/ProgramDocuments/TownHall.pdf

ESG/CDP enabling CCSM Science Mission

Lessons Learned• Obs data is both very similar and different from model data• Don’t let scientists build their data systems on their own!

…but don’t let the CS folks do it alone, either• Effective Data Infrastructures Require Sustained Investment

PCMDI IPCC WG1 Archive• Standards can unite communities (GO-ESSP)• Keep a tight focus on the community that you serve• Effective Collaborations can be huge resource multipliers

Looking Forward• Globally Federated Distributed Data Portals for IPCC AR5• Build balanced systems! Obs/Compute + Data + Analysis

Thanks! Any Questions?