a view towards 2020: the new energy landscape
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A View Towards 2020: The New Energy Landscape. Bob Fryklund , Chief Upstream Strategist , IHS. The North American Renaissance. First Wave-- The Shale Gale !. September 2012 64.7 Bcf per day. Henry Hub monthly average cash price. NGL- and oil-rich plays begin to drive third wave. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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A View Towards 2020: The New Energy Landscape
Bob Fryklund , Chief Upstream Strategist , IHSFryklundANIMPMay2013
The North American Renaissance
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First Wave-- The Shale Gale !
July 200856.1 Bcf per day
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita
September 201264.7 Bcf per day
Avg $7.45Jan 04 to Dec 08
Avg $3.75Jan 09 to Sept. 12
NGL- and oil-rich plays begin to drive third wave
Shale Gale starts withBarnett, Fayetteville, and Woodford shale plays
Haynesville, Marcellus shale plays drive second wave
Henry Hub monthly average cash price
Hurricane Ike
Source: IHS CERA, Intelligence Press, and EIA. 3FryklundANIMPMay2013
Inn of America No Room
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
TanzaniaVenezuela
IsraelBrazil
CameroonIraqIran
MozambiqueCanada
LibyaEquatorial Guinea
NorwayPeru
AngolaAbu Dhabi
Papua New GuineaYemenBrunei
USARussiaOmanEgypt
TrinidadNigeria
MalaysiaAlgeria
IndonesiaQatar
Australia
Million Tons per Year
Existing, 279 mt
Committed, 95 mt
Proposed, 472 mt
TOTAL Inventory: 845 mt
N.B. An "inventory" of projects, not an outlook.
Proposed projects have varying degrees of likelihood.
Source: IHS CERA.Note: mt = million metric tons.
Global LNG supply is diversifying geographically
5FryklundANIMPMay2013
Second Wave - U.S. Liquids Revival
• Reversing a trend that spanned the previous four decades, U.S. liquids production is expected to regain and overtake its 1970 peak by 2020.
• Driven solely by the growth in tight oil and wet gas plays, total liquids production is expected to reach >11.5 mmboe/d by the end of this decade.
• By 2020, tight oil production is on track to reach 4.2 mmboe/d accounting for 36% of total US liquids production (up from 21% in 2012).
*Forecast numbers are production capacity**Assumes recent high oil prices above $80/bbl are maintained throughout the forecast period 7 FryklundANIMPMay2013
U.S. & Canada Emerge On the World Stage
Other countries predominantly unconventional (Canada oil sands), deepwater (Brazil, Angola, Other Africa) or onshore OPEC categories (Iraq, Libya).
C
C
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North American oil production create higher OPEC spare capacity
Year on Year Change in Total Crude Oil Production(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Weak “call on OPEC” expected to result in higher OPEC spare capacity and
reduce OPEC pricing power
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OTPP CONFIDENTIAL
A New Map for Global trade flows of crude and refined product
Gasoline Flows
Diesel Flows
Trade VolumesThousand Barrels per Day
We anticipate significant growth in global trade
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OTPP CONFIDENTIAL
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Canada Imports
Waterborne Imports
Mexico Land Exports
Waterborne Exports
U.S. Imports and Exports of LPG, Thousand Tonnes per Day
58
116
174
232
290
348mmb/d
0
• Global LPG trade flows are adjusting to accommodate U.S. exports
• LPG production outside the United States is also rising
• Demand from international markets will need to expand to consume the new production
North American LPG Exports Ramp Up
FryklundANIMPMay2013
The Industry Re Structures- Portfolio’s
12
23%28% 26%
60%50%
21%
32%
12%
10%21%
11%
19%
34%
8%
22%
5%
9% 22% 9%
7%
33%
13% 3% 13%7%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
XOM RDS CVX BP TOT
Resource Base by Type, Proven + Non-Proven
Arctic *
Unconv. Oil & Gas**
Deepwater
LNG
Heavy Oil & Oil Sands
Conv. O&G
Source: IHS Herold
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Global Hotspots
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Deepwater
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Onshore
Dry Plays
High Impact Wells
GTL – Planned/Under Construction
GTL - Operating
GTL – Deferred/Cancelled
Mini LNG – Planned/Under Construction
Mini LNG - Operating
Floating LNG
Technology Hotspots
The Global Tight Oil Race
Scaling Up
Producing
Pilots
Frontier
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50 – 100 bil. 100 – 150 bil. 150 – 200 bil. > 200 bil.
US GOM
Pre-Salt
Qatar LNG
East Africa
NW Shelf
Queensland
Oil Sands
Shale/Tight Oil
Mega Projects
EPC – Capacity Issues Drive Delays
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2015
5
17.4
1021.9
0
2014
EP
C In
vest
men
ts i
n L
iqu
efac
tio
n f
acil
itie
s (U
S$
Bn
)
11.8
2011
30
2009 20122008
2.6
25
17.5
2013
8.2
2010
1.4
2003
15
20
1.0
2004
0.91.3
2005
2.5
2006
3.7
2007
1.4
South America
Central America
North America
Med. & Middle East
Europe
Russia & Caspian
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Construction delay = difference between online date at FID and actual or expected online date
Capex Costs Micro BurstsBrazil Upstream Cost Index
Regional Upstream Indexes
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The Local Content Multiplier - Brazil
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Drilling & Development
Production & Storage Units
Topsides &Processing Equipment
Key Exploration and Development Activities
Hull Upgrade-Fabrication
Hull Upgrade-Materials
Mooring System
Tanker Design
Tanker Project Mangement
Marine commissioning
Moob/Demob & Towing
Installation
Vessels
Utilities
Heat Exchangers
Oil Export Pumps
Pump Turbine Drive
Gas Compressor elect drive
Power generation
CO2 Removal
Fine Filters
Gas Compressors Turbine Drive
Power Distribution
Controls
Secondary Steel
Instruments
Electrical
Piping
Top side fabrication
HUC
Design
Project Management
0 50 100Higher initial expat input on (E&PM) is likely to increase cost
Higher initial expat input on (E&PM) is likely to increase cost
Higher local content can be reached given scale and technology transfer
Higher local content can be reached given scale and technology transfer
A steep change in technical capability likely to require large procurement commitment
A steep change in technical capability likely to require large procurement commitment
Access, cost, and quality are key issues for local hull upgrade and requires infrastructure upgrade
Access, cost, and quality are key issues for local hull upgrade and requires infrastructure upgrade
Higher local content is not a large capability/technology stretch here
Higher local content is not a large capability/technology stretch here
Higher initial expat input on E&PM is likely to increase cost
Higher initial expat input on E&PM is likely to increase cost
Necessary to transfer capability/technology from other industries shouldn’t present a major hurdle
Necessary to transfer capability/technology from other industries shouldn’t present a major hurdle
Percent LC (percent)
Large Large Large turbine drive rotary equipment beyond local industry capabilities. Large pumps and compressors currently imported.
Large turbine drive rotary equipment beyond local industry capabilities. Large pumps and compressors currently imported.
Maximum LC Achievable With Current Local
Capabilities
76 percent
Source: IHS CERA.FPSO: Floating Production Storage Offloading Vessel FryklundANIMPMay2013
Labor- Dealing with Peaks and Valleys
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The New Face of Risk
FryklundKNOWApril23,2013 21
The Road Ahead
• A Golden Era for Contracting ?• Something for Everyone – Up/ Mid/
Downstream ?• Mega projects- Diversity Continues• New Technologies - Game Changers ?• New Models of Cooperation
FryklundANIMPMay2013 22
For more information about this presentation orIHS in general, please contact
Bob Fryklund+1 713 369 0317
55 Cambridge ParkwayCambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA
IHSCERA.com
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