a view to the north canadian international petroleum conference june 12, 2001 a view to the north...
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A View to The North
Canadian International Petroleum ConferenceJune 12, 2001
A View to The North
Canadian International Petroleum ConferenceJune 12, 2001
2
Topics I’ll Cover
• Overview of TransCanada
• Why Northern gas is needed
• Options
- routes
- downstream possibilities
• Current status
3
BRITISHCOLUMBIA
ALBERTA
SASKATCHEWAN
MANITOBA
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
NUNAVUT
YUKON NORTHWESTTERRITORIES
Chicago
Winnipeg
Regina
Calgary
Niagara
Montreal
Longlac
Empress
Edmonton
Vancouver
Yellowknife
Fort Nelson
TransCanada’s Pipeline System(incl. partially owned)
TransCanada PipeLines
Foothills Pipe Lines
Northern Border Pipelines
Great Lakes Gas Transmission
Trans Quebec & Maritimes Pipelines
Iroquois Gas Transmission System
Portland Transmission System
Tuscarora Pipelines
TransCanada’s power plants
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TransCanada
• TransCanada has the second largest gas transmission system in the world - over 38,000 km
• We move 75% of Western Canada’s natural gas production to market
• We manage or control over 1900 MW of power
5
BRITISHCOLUMBIA
ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN
MANITOBA
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
NUNAVUT
YUKON
NORTHWESTTERRITORIES
Chicago
WinnipegRegina
Calgary
MelvilleMacKenzie Delta
Niagara
Montreal
Longlac
Empress
Edmonton
Vancouver
Prudhoe Bay
Yellowknife
Pine Point
Inuvik
Fort Nelson
ValdezWhitehorse
Historical gas projects in the North
DIRECT TO MARKET
POLAR DELTA
CAGPL
FOOTHILLS MAPLE LEAF
ALASKA HIGHWAY
EL PASO ALASKA
TRANS-ALASKA GAS
DEMPSTER
POLAR GAS
Historical Proposals (Oldest First )
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North American Demand
25.4 28.9 32.6
2000 2005 2010
69.679.3
89.2
2000 2005 2010
Annual(Tcf)
Daily(Bcf/d)
• Growth = 19 Bcf/d• 50% related to power generation
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2.5 Bcf/d2.5 Bcf/d2.8%/yr2.8%/yr
0.9 Bcf/d0.9 Bcf/d2.3%/yr2.3%/yr
2.7 Bcf/d2.7 Bcf/d2.8%/yr2.8%/yr
1.8 Bcf/d1.8 Bcf/d3.4%/yr3.4%/yr
Total North American demand: 70 Bcf/d in 2000
89 Bcf/d in 2010
Total North American demand: 70 Bcf/d in 2000
89 Bcf/d in 2010
3.1 Bcf/d3.1 Bcf/d2.3%/yr2.3%/yr
North American GasDemand Growth
8.6 Bcf/d8.6 Bcf/d2.3%/yr2.3%/yr
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North American Market Growth Forecast
69.679.3 84.0
5.2
0102030405060708090
100
2000 2005 2010Daily Demand ( Bcf /d) Arctic Gas
Arctic Frontier Gas represents about 1/4 of the incremental supply required
Arctic Frontier Gas represents about 1/4 of the incremental supply required
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Western Canadian Supply Response
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
89/90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
DevelopmentExplorationSupply
# of Wells Drilled Gas Supply (Bcf/d)
9200
6430
5330
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What that means for the North
• Frontier gas is essential to meet demand
- It will help meet significant demand growth
• Supply/demand supports two pipelines
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Yukon
Alaska
Nunavut
Northwest Territories
B.C.
Alberta
Mackenzie DeltaReserves: 9 Tcf Proven 64 Tcf UltimateProduction: None
Mackenzie DeltaReserves: 9 Tcf Proven 64 Tcf UltimateProduction: None
Alaska North Slope(Prudhoe Bay)Reserves: 31 Tcf Proven 99 Tcf UltimateProduction: 8 Bcf/d (associated) 7 Bcf/d (re-injected)
Alaska North Slope(Prudhoe Bay)Reserves: 31 Tcf Proven 99 Tcf UltimateProduction: 8 Bcf/d (associated) 7 Bcf/d (re-injected)
Northern Gas Resources
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Two Pipeline Option
ArcticNationalWildlifeReserve
Yukon FlatsWildlife Reserve
IvvavikNational
ParkPrudhoe Bay
MackenzieDelta
Alaska
Yukon
NorthwestTerritories
Nunavut
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
BritishColumbia
WASHINGTON IDAHO
MONTANA
Inuvik
NORTHDAKOTA
Two stand-alone pipelines provide least technological, environmental and operational risk
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Mackenzie Valley PipelineLowest Cost, Quickest to Market for Delta Gas
Route Description
• 1220 km, 30” diameter
• Operating pressure 2050 psi
• Initial volumes 0.8 Bcf/d
• Ultimate volumes 1.2 Bcf/d
• Initial cost US $2.0 billion
• 2 year Construction
ArcticNationalWildlifeReserve
Yukon FlatsWildlife Reserve
IvvavikNational
Park MackenzieDelta
Alaska
Yukon
NorthwestTerritories
Nunavut
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
BritishColumbia
WASHINGTON IDAHO
MONTANA
Inuvik
NORTHDAKOTA
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Alaska Highway Gas Pipeline ProjectLowest Cost, Quickest to Market for ANS Gas
Route Description
• 2820 km, 42” diameter
• Operating pressure 2050 psi
• Initial volumes 2.5 Bcf/d
• Ultimate volumes 4.0 Bcf/d
• Initial cost US$7.6 billion
• 2 Year construction
ArcticNationalWildlifeReserve
Yukon FlatsWildlife Reserve
IvvavikNational
ParkPrudhoe Bay
MackenzieDelta
Alaska
Yukon
NorthwestTerritories
Nunavut
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
BritishColumbia
WASHINGTON IDAHO
MONTANA
Gordondale
NORTHDAKOTA
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Accessing Growth Markets
Alberta /B.C.
PacificNorthwest /California
Midwestern U.S.A.
Eastern Canada /Northeast U.S.A.
PotentialAlaska Supply
PotentialMacKenzie Delta
Supply
Current facilities, with some additions, can move both Alaska and Mackenzie Valley gas to growth markets
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Status
• Producers in both Mackenzie Delta and Prudhoe Bay studying routing options and determining timing
• Partnerships being formed- APG and Producers negotiating deal in
Mackenzie Valley
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Regulatory Status
• Mackenzie Valley- No approvals received - Looking to consolidate regulatory process
where possible
• Alaska- Alaska Highway Natural Gas Transportation
System has framework in place -- Northern Pipelines Act and the Alaska Highway Natural Gas Transportation Act
- Certificates are in place and have been used -- they require current environmental protection standards
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Outstanding Issues
• Producers timetables and development objectives
• Northern communities expectations
• Actual North American market demand
• Long-term natural gas price
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TransCanada’s Expertise
• Existing facilities can get Northern gas to growth markets.
• Extensive experience in extreme cold weather - both in pipeline construction and in operation of natural gas pipelines
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Technology and Experience
• Experience and technology to bring in projects on time and on budget
• From 1994 to 1999, we added over 3,900 km of large pipe to our system, almost equivalent to the two Northern projects combined
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Summary
• Frontier gas is required to meet forecast demand
• Our efforts are focussed on complementing those of the producers
• TransCanada expertise can add value to any northern options
Ending Slide - TransCanada Logo