A Systems Thinking PrimerLearning to see...

@patkua

(in 3 parts)

@patkua

http://tiny.cc/twtlhttp://tiny.cc/retros

Architect

Developer

Leader

Coach

Life-long learner

Author

FundamentalsI.

ArchetypesII.

In S/W ContextIII.

Part I...

Fundamentals

What is a system?

Set of agentsAgent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Set of agentsAgent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Interconnected

Set of agentsAgent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Interconnected

In a dynamic state

Agent

Agent

More than the sum of their partsA product of their interactions

(does not apply to full system)

Cause Effect

Analysis Synthesis

Analysis Synthesis

A car travels approximately 26 km per Litre. If petrol costs £4.04/L which one would be closest to how much petrol would cost for a car travelling 2,626km? !

• £44.44 • £109.08 • £118.80 • £408.04 • £333.40

The  United  States  consumers  more  than  20%  (7  billion  barrels)  of  the  world’s  oil  supply  annually  yet  only  has  2%  of  the  world’s  proven  oil  reserves.    What  factors  will  determine  when  we  reach  “peak  oil”—the  point  in  Fme  when  the  maximum  rate  of  petroleum  extracFon  is  reached,  aIer  which  the  rate  of  oil  producFon  is  expected  to  enter  terminal  decline?  !

Systems Thinking

Correlation != Cause

Systems thinkers seek

feedback loops

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

Agent

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Agent

Weight Loss (Analysis)

Current Weight Target WeightDiet

Weight Loss (Synthesis)

Weight

Calories In Calories Out

“Healthy” Food ExerciseJunk Food

Mood

2 Types of Feedback Loops

Amplifying Dampening

Self Reinforcing

Escalating

Positive Runaway

Compounding

Snowballing

Stabalising

Self-maintaining

Negative

Balancing

Weight

Calories In Calories Out

“Healthy” Food ExerciseJunk Food

Mood

Mental Models

“The thinking it took to get us into this mess is not the same thinking

that is going to get us out of it.”

Word association

Word association

Word association

Word association

Word association

Word association

Word association

Word association

Word association

Word association

Colour

Furniture

Flowerseconds60

Mind Grooving

Slumber

Dream

Bed

Quiet

Nap

Pillow

Night

Blanket

Pajamas

Snooze

Write down as many words as you can remember, without talking

Slumber

Dream

Bed

Quiet

Nap

Pillow

Night

Blanket

Pajamas

Snooze

Circles in the Air

Thumb Wrestling

Noise Generating

Fun Generating

Delays

Delays

Part II...

Archetypes

A what?

An Archetype

Peter Senge Author of the Fifth Discipline

Balancing Loop

Balancing Loop

Desired State“warm”

Current State“cold”

Gap

Action

ExerciseFolding Stuff

Reinforcing Loop

Limits to Success

Reinforcing Loop

Limits to Success

Thickness

Stiffness

Folding Rate

1 1 0.001 m

2 2 0.002 m

3 4 0.004 m

4 8 0.008 m

5 16 0.016 m

6 32 0.032 m

7 64 0.064 m

8 128 0.128 m

9 256 0.256 m

10 512 0.512 m

11 1024 1.024 m

12 2048 2.048 m

13 4096 4.096 m

14 8192 8.192 m

15 16384 16.384 m

16 32768 32.768 m

17 65536 65.536 m

18 131072 131.072 m

19 262144 262.144 m

20 524288 524.288 m

21 1048576 1.048576 km

22 2097152 2.097152 km

23 4194304 4.194304 km

24 8388608 8.388608 km

25 16777216 16.777216 km

26 33554432 33.554432 km

27 67108864 67.108864 km

28 134217728 134.217728 km

29 268435456 268.435456 km

30 536870912 536.870912 km

31 1073741824 1073.741824 km

32 2147483648 2147.483648 km

33 4294967296 4294.967296 km

34 8589934592 8589.934592 km

8589.934592km

Fold 34

Dallas - Berlin (8391km)

Tragedy of the Commons

Fixes that fail

CashLoan

Interest

Part III...

In S/W Context

Feedback Loops

Amplifying Dampening

Good design #Bugs

Delivering frequently

Poor usability

Fixes that Fail

Long Build Breakages

Tragedy of the Commons

Iterations

Cum

ulat

ive

Poin

ts

Work longer hours

Don’t write tests

Copy and paste code

# Bu

gs

Work longer hoursDon’t Write TestsCopy and Paste Code

# Cu

stom

ers

Limits to Success

FundamentalsI.

ArchetypesII.

In S/W ContextIII.

“There are no separate systems. The world is a continuum. Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on

the purpose of the discussion.”

Donella H. Meadows Author of Thinking in Systems

Questions?

@patkua

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