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A Svalbard perspective

Kim Holmén

International Director

Norwegian Polar Institute

p pon global change

Norwegian Polar Institute

holmen@npolar.no

Svalbard:

Norwegian Arctic

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SVALBARD

Barentsburg

Ny-Ålesund

Longyearbyen

Barentsburg

Hornsund ~60,000 km~60,000 km22

~60% glaciers~60% glaciers

-13.1 Sv

11 5 Sv

Kim Holmén. page 4

11.5 Sv

1.6 Sv

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CLIMATE CHANGE ?• Detection

– Is climate changing?

– Are these changes unique?

• Attribution

Wh t i i th h ?– What is causing the changes?

• Natural variation (Sun, volcanoes, etc.)

• Greenhouse gases released by humankind

• Other human induced changes

• Future change

– Models

• Effects of climate change

– Ecosystems

– Society

• Agriculture

• Infrastructure

– Combined effects

Kim Holmén. page 6

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Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

Kim Holmén. page 7

Kim Holmén. page 8

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/

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Geographical pattern of surface warmingGeographical pattern of surface warming

Kim Holmén. page 9

Projected surface temperature changes for the late 21st century (2090-2099). The map shows the multi-AOGCM average projection for the A1B SRES scenario. All temperatures are relative to the period 1980-1999.

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http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/very-little-old-sea-ice-remains-arctic

What is changing in theArctic Sea Ice System?

Fram Strait icethickness (ULS)

y

• Ice extent

• Ice dynamics and distribution

• Sea ice thickness

Hopen max. seas. ice thickness ( drillings)

Gerland et al. 2008 GRL

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POLAR BEAR

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WOLF

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Grey WolfGrey Wolf

Kim Holmén. page 19

Wikimedia commons

NARWHAL

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NarwhalNarwhal

Kim Holmén. page 21

Kim Holmén. page 22

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Other drivers…Other drivers…

Kim Holmén. page 23

Aftenposten, January 19, 2013

Photo: Ann-Christine Engvall

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Effects of plastic in nature

A plankton net (neuston net) that is towed at the air-sea interface to collect biological organisms and floating debris. The net has a 1-m x 0.5 m mouth, 335-μm mesh, and is towed for 30 minutes, typically sampling 1.8 km of the sea surface (equivalent to filtering ~2000 bathtubs of surface water).

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Plastic bits collected at sea.Photo Credit: M. Maglione/SEA.

GRL, 2012

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-13.1 Sv

11 5 Sv

Kim Holmén. page 29

11.5 Sv

1.6 Sv

FULMAR

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Trevail et al. 2014

Plastic in 20% of Svalbard fulmars in the early 80ies.

We found plastic in 90% ofSvalbard fulmars in 2013.

Global Plastic Production

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Source; Plastics Europe,

First plastic production First report of plastic in the

marine food chainBan against dumping of plastic in sea

; p ,2013

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Global Living Planet IndexGlobal Living Planet Indexdeclined 52% between declined 52% between

1970 and 20101970 and 2010

Kim Holmén. page 33

The Global Living Planet Index is calculated using trends in 10,380 populations of over 3,038 vertebrate species

(fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals).

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Humanity is bigHumanity is big• Land-use

• Altering nature• Altering nature

• Resource use

• Waste production

• Climate change

BIG ith BIG ith Kim Holmén. page 35

BIG comes with BIG comes with responsibilityresponsibility

Svalbard:

Thanks

Thanks for your attention !WALRUS

Norwegian Arctic

s for your at

Photo: Kit Kovacs and Christian Lydersen

ttention !

Thanks for your attention !